Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  1. Finns

    Just for my own interest, can i put a hypothetical to you?

    Say Obama and Hillary both fall apart and the Dem Convention descends into chaos and they fall back on old Bill to represent them at the election.

    Say Bomb Bomb has a Barry Hall brainsnap and calls Dobson and all his silly evangelicals peanuts living in la la land and the Repugs strip him of his candidature and give it to a woman…say Condi Rice or Kay Bailey Hutchison…heck it doesn’t matter so long as it’s a woman.

    Bill Clinton V Republican Female.

    who would you support?

  2. Deep breath Diogs.

    Finns@1095 – i read the lyrics of our song and , correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t you talking about Mrs`Clinton?
    (And not sure what you maen about Ferny V or I)

  4. Harry, they’d need to change the Constitution too – Bill’s already had his two goes on the dynastic merry-go-round (and used up WAY more than his share of tickets).

  11. #1102 – if that is the case [don’t let little facts get in the way of my hypothetical please] – i will nominate my wife as POTUS. She is smart, clever, beautiful, well spoken and she listens to me.

  13. Finns – if Condi, Bill and your missus were running, I reckon you’d have a fair portion of the Dems vote sewn up after Bills shenanigans of late, and given the Bush admins negatives, you just might find yourself First Gent.

  19. Diogenes#1101

    Now you changed your misquoting/allegation again

    I love them actually (the non evil ones)

    It is not worthless , its inspring

    Most have disappointed ,

    Many have used it for power & have become evil

    They (the good & bad political ones) do however have a political advantage over dry speakers to assess them , accountabilty for their arguments and scrutiny of them. The message was caution to do so.

    Unfortunately you are so eager to defend Obama no matter what , that even the most general of principles advanced by me as I did which is caution of great Orators & why , is wrongly assumed by you to imply I was making a direct allegation against your man that he is all puff and no substance.

    Regretably if you had read my #1078 blog to Jen , I made the distinction clear to anyone you is not biasly based. About time you read what bloggers say , rather than ascribe your view of what you think they mean and when in doubt have the courtesy to ask for clarification

  21. Ron!!!
    “Unfortunately you are so eager to defend Obama no matter what , that even the most general of principles advanced by me as I did which is caution of great Orators & why , is wrongly assumed by you to imply I was making a direct allegation against your man that he is all puff and no substance.”

    If your point was NOT to make out that Obama is fairy floss WTF did you make it for???!!!
    At least be honest. (and keep your reply to under 10 thousand words if possible)

  23. 1111
    The Finnigans Says:
    April 15th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
    #1103 – is Ferny male or female? i seem to remember that was a debate about his/her SEX!!

    Let’s not go there again, Finn, pur-leeeese!

    Against my better judgment, your mangled syntax, your specious logic, dreadful spelling and atrocious punctuation, I’ve grown somewhat fond of your dogged persistence over the months even though you bug the shit of me most of the time. So, mate, do accept the abovementioned advice in the spirit that is is intended, ie., friendly.

  28. anyone who has skynews should turn it on. what a great community cabinet meeting with the real people.

    #1127 – no prob.

  29. KR

    yeah the last 2 Pennsylvania polls say

    Clinton +20
    Clinton +3

    Go figure…..why would we bother.

    Tis a waiting game til the monster gets killed off.

  30. Jen #1122

    The reason I brought up the advantages political great Orators have ( lack of more thorough accountability for promises/actions & scrutiny of them ) over ‘dry’ speaking ones was:

    If John Edwards , Howard Dean , Hillary , John Kerry or Al Gore had said precisely the same words as Obama , they would all be in serious (but not fatal)
    political trouble. All would have had to make a full apology and retraction
    for ill chosen words. So they should have as 5 insults were appalling aginst mid west working class peoples (not just a few redknecks)

    Not Obama. Why because he is a billiant Orator. Obama picked out the least insulting of the 5 insults (‘bitter’) and delivered a brilliant Oratory at Terre Haute saying peple are ‘bitter’ about ALL Washington Pollies promising all and delivering nothing. He used 5 insults not one at Frisco & the context inwhich he used them was slightly different.

    But the faithful think he did NOTHING wrong at Frisco. He did.

    If Gore , Edwards had done so & tried to avoid a full apology subsequently as Obama did , their fairly average Oratory skills compared to Obama would have been exposed as being at the worst , deceptive & at the best not be able to acknowledge you are wrong when you are. Obama I think was wrong. His great Oratory avoided scrutiny of his standards for which he should have acknowledged….then moved on.

    There was nothing additionally sinister in what I said.
    All great Orators have ‘puff’ , some have no substance either. Most have puff and no substance …but I did not imply Obama had no substance ,a point some too quickly assumed (wrongly) I did say.

  31. Ron

    Howard Dean said the exact same thing as Obama 4 years ago, except even in blunter language, yet it wasn’t even raised as an issue.

    Even though William intimated he’d prefer an end to this argument, it is quite fun listening to you gargling.

  33. “Anyone read any good polls lately?”

    Nothing we don’t know about already, old son, but one has observed how you like to quantify your hobby/addiction. These people are never a gee-up.
    In Gallup We Trust.

    “PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup’s daily update on consumer perceptions of the economy finds 86% of Americans saying economic conditions are getting worse, and 43% rating current conditions as “poor.” Both measures are one percentage point off the most negative in Gallup Poll Daily tracking this year.”
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/106501/Gallup-Daily-Heightened-Economic-Gloom-Persists.aspx

  37. Ron

    A change of tack. I agree with what Obama said about rednecks taking refuge against a world that treats them with disdain by retreating into religion, gun, xenophobia and general ignorance. I would have said they were “pis*ed off” rather than bitter. The same thing happened, and is happening, in the ME where disaffected Muslims felt betrayed by the excesses of their oil-rich leaders.

    The argument is a bit simplistic but it is hard to make sense of complex phenomena without some simplification. What is it about the argument that you disagree with so strongly?

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