Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  2. ‘I’ll organise some coffeee and dumb nuts’.

    Err GG, the latter would appear to be well catered for, don’t you think?

    Logistics/Cost not OZ’s best suit. And you confirm it.

  3. The Democrats have to sit the MI and FL delegates at the convention regardless who the nominee is, McCain would have a field day saying the Dems dont care about 2 important States! This is probably the only reason Hillary is still in the race.

  7. Rocky was a fantasy movie which hollywood made to let white people think they were still contenders, right?

    I would say Hillary is more like Foreman, she’s been “hope-a-doped” by the greatest.

  8. GG @ 5 – Bit late for training now, Cassius Clay Obama has already stung like a bee. So, Ms Rockyette’s percentage chance of the nom. at present in your honest personal considered estimation GG is …?

  10. 3 Glen

    The Democrats will seat Michigan and Florida at the convention.

    Shortly after Obama wins in June and Hillary withdraws, he will announce that Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated.

    Ron – You asked what I felt were Obama’s flaws

    My personal gripe is that he is not an agnostic or atheist. As such going to church of any type, especially one with Wright as pastor does not reflect well on his overall judgement.
    He also seemed extremely naive in regards to the Rezko transaction.
    I do not think he will do well with the right wing, red neck, lowly educated and the christian fundamentalist vote which will cost him.
    I’m also not sure that he will be able to put in action the solutions he so eloquently states.

    Despite this, he is still my favoured candidate. Mainly because McCain is too old at 72 and a right wing Iraq supporter. And Hillary appears to be a pathological liar that is obsessed with her own ambition and surrounded by Rove (and I don’t mean McManus :)) like supporters.

  11. Mr Bowe @6 what you consider is gibberish is well & good however what I may consider is gibberish is entirely a different matter. If you wish to ban me go ahead it’s your blog but pleaese don’t insult my intelligence & that of your other posters by mesaruring what you call gibberish without following the thread.

    In the case of davidoff, it was too liitle too late; with respect you missed the ‘point’ there and you are about to do it again. I do realises that you have a day job but you really ought to pay more attention to the ‘crap’ & ‘mission’ statements passed off here as ‘informed’ opinion. It clearly is not and most have a drum to bang. No problem with that, personally; but I detect a consistent misreading of that by the request for no gibberish by your good self; I don’t think this is deliberate on your part but perhaps a function of your busy lifestyle. At least I hope that is the explanation.

    If you follow the thread Mr Bowe, there is no gibberish start or finish. It may not be be your lingo…but…

    Which leads me to conclude that you’ve had a serious whinge from. Let me guess! I don’t think your intervention is ‘editorial’. It’s too much for Caddy & Co.!

    Cheers.

    & Continuity…

    Happy to leave William.

  19. A couple of polls on Pennsylvania out today.

    A PPP>/a> poll released today places Obama ahead of Hillary by 2% (43/45), a 28 point improvement from an earlier PPP poll which was taken after the Wright drama unfolded but before Obama’s United Union speech. Yes – its not a typo – Obama ahead of Clinton in PA by 2 points..

    And just to keep everyone here happy, a Quinnipiac University poll from the same day puts Clinton ahead of Obama by 9 points (50/41), a narrowing of 2% since their poll on the 18 March.

    Interesting days.

  20. [reposting]

    A couple of polls on Pennsylvania out today.

    A PPP poll released today places Obama ahead of Hillary by 2% (43/45), a 28 point improvement from an earlier PPP poll which was taken after the Wright drama unfolded but before Obama’s United Union speech. Yes – its not a typo – Obama ahead of Clinton in PA by 2 points..

    And just to keep everyone here happy, a Quinnipiac University poll from the same day puts Clinton ahead of Obama by 9 points (50/41), a narrowing of 2% since their poll on the 18 March.

    Interesting days.

  22. Can we please move on. It is now crystal clear that:

    1. the fight will go on. nobody is going to quit or being pushed out.
    2. the SDs will decide, regardless of who has more PDs or popular votes. so forget about the mathematics.
    3. MI and FL delegates will be seated and votes counted.

    So can we focus on, to quote my fav lady Nancy with the-egg-on-her-face: “WHO CAN WIN”. Who is more electable vs McCain. That is the only question that matters now for the SDs.

    “These superdelegates have the right to vote their conscience and who they think would be the better president, or who can win, but they also then should get involved in the campaigns and make their power known there,” Pelosi said today on ABC News’ Good Morning America.

    http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/pelosi_superdelegates_free_to.html

  23. #22
    The Finnigans

    Umm, nah …

    1. the fight will go on. nobody is going to quit or being pushed out.

    It looks as though nobody is going to be pushed out (overtly). However – I would not say that a Clinton exit is off the list of real possibilities. The Clinton campaign is in fatigue – funding is a long way behind Obama and money is not coming in at a rate necessary to keep pace, and Obama is forcing the Clinton campaign into a burn-rate they cannot sustain. Creditors are not being paid, even internal campaign staff are waiting for reimbursements on travel expenses (without a clear picture of when accounts will be settled). Bill is getting grumpy, and a nasty result in the Penn contest could do the trick.

    2. the SDs will decide, regardless of who has more PDs or popular votes. so forget about the mathematics.

    I disagree completely with the assertion. More than half of the superdelegates have already delectared intentions. The remaining superdelegates will take into consideration the result of the contest in terms of pledged delegates, number of states, popular vote, loyalties to the electorate that put them where they are, their prospects taking into account trends, their respective political futures, and then – from that platform exercise their judgement. To say that SD decisions will not reflect pledged delegate results is overly simplistic.

    3. MI and FL delegates will be seated and votes counted.

    Its not a given – but I’m assuming that they will be seated at the end of the day, but not with the same capacity as delegates from non-defaulting states.

  24. G’day Gang, these three stories lunged at me from this morning’s mojo wire.

    1/WALLINGFORD, Pa. — Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday he would give Al Gore, a Nobel prize winner, a major role in an Obama administration to address the problem of global warming.(Huffy)

    2/ “Now another sign offers possible clues to Senator Clinton’s Murdoch status: Rupert’s daughter Elisabeth is holding a fund-raiser at her London home this month for Barack Obama”…….. AP

    3/ The Freakish Pulling Power of the The Kid: noted earlier by js.
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf
    ————-

    codger, do you speak Swahili, Caribbean patois, or pig Latin?
    It’s been hard learning to live without Eddy and Davidoff, but I’ve soldiered on. Hope you’ve had a good night’s kip, this race is just starting to ramp up.
    ——————-

    E.J. Dionne just told Fran Kelly that he reckons the SDs will move behind The Kid unless Brutusina creams him in PA.

    Finn, you’re a big fan of astrologer Nancy I notice. Geez I love it when you talk scientific. Scorpio’s rising, son, have you ever thought of just saying no to Mrs. Clinton because she’ll only sting you badly in the end?

  26. Another superdelegate locks in with Obama.

    Associated Press Writer HELENA, Mont. (AP) Former U.S. Sen. John Melcher says he is going to cast his key Democratic Party superdelegate vote for Barack Obama.

    According the AP, and consistent with Finnigans second rule, Melcher is one of eight Montana superdelegates who can vote for whoever they please at the party’s national convention this summer.

  27. 6
    William Bowe

    We are all trying to learn ‘gibberish’ William, and codger is teaching us. Some already are quite fluent, and do it almost effortlessly, but codger raises bar and embeds little cryptic stuff called ‘meaning’ into it, even if we have to admit it’s a bit tricky to see first off.

    Keep trying, you’ll improve, we have! LOL

  28. Speaking of popping in a bit of ‘meaning’, it’s interesting to see that Ben Bernanke dropped the ‘r’ word last night.

    For a guy who kept telling us there was only a wee problem in sub-prime mortgages that wouldn’t be leaking into other markets, he really is behind the curve, eh?

    So when Helicopter (I’ll drop money from the sky if necessary) Ben, tells us a little ‘recession’ is ‘probably’ happening, I’d suggest it’s time to head into the bunker with the tinned food and the ammo.

    This guy has been so wrong so long it’s scary. (Remember, we were talking about a recession in the US late last year! Oh, and there were quite a few ‘serious’ people arguing that it was a preposterous idea. Well, beware experts, i say! LOL)

    Inside word is da boyz at the Fed are packing sh!t still, and realise they can’t keep pulling Bear stunts, and are very anxious about where the next shoe will drop.

    And drop it will.

    Anyway, that ‘r’ word was a cold spoon to the screen jocks who’d been covering their short postions like mad and feeling bouyant on a cushion of Fed liquidity. It probably will work for a day or so, and then they’ll get back to it until the next big insto hits the wall.

    Maybe that’s why it’s called Wall Street?

  31. Re-post from the fag end of the previous thread. Who’s up for it?

    [I see in my absence around the premier state there has been an element of cabin fever involving possible changes in gender orientation. It is a long campaign but I don’t think we need go that far – unless of course it’s something you have been inclined towards anyway.

    Seems to me a competition is in order to distract us a little and I propose we pick the date on which one of the two remaining Dem candidates announces they are pulling the pin. See, no assumptions about who that candidate might be, so it would be an even-handed competition, but that being so, contestants would nominate:

    1. The date and time of day for the announcement (US time), and;
    2. The candidate to make the announcement.

    (Giving the time of day will ensure a winner.)

    There are some key dates, for primaries, the convention etc., but I suspect those formal dates may not be when this event occurs.

    I would get a nice bottle of red to the winner, but perhaps others could donate a prize as well, if able to. What do you reckon?]

    My own prediction is Hillary bowing out on April 23 at 1000 hrs.

    By the way, this RCP graph of the Penn polls is a classic ‘pincer narrowing’:
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

  32. jv – In the spirit of the game, my wishful rather than realist scenario at this stage:

    After a virtual tie in Pennsylvania really puts the pressure on, Hillary loses in Indiana and gets hammered by 20+ point North Carolina. She then dismounts with a fairly graceful speech on 8 May around midday after staying out of the press’ way on the seventh.

    Btw, the wishful part refers to Hillary withdrawing. I’m happy to put those margin predictions on the record as my tips.

  33. Morning Bludgers.

    I see Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal has now endorsed Obama. Does anyone come out and endorse Hillary anymore???

    And seeing as we’re in an issues – and primary – hiatus let’s talk healthcare. It’s the elephant in the room that Obama supporters don’t want to talk about. I suspect many, like me, who support Obama wish he would pinch Hillary’s healthcare plan. It’s better than his.

    Any thoughts?

  34. Pretty optimistic in my view Pancho 🙂

    I’m hesitant to make any tips this early in the piece.

    However, I suspect Hillary will win Pennsylvania easily. The latest Indiana polls are showing Hillary in front, and North Carolina will go to Obama easily but the polls aren’t indicating a 20+ lead.

  35. 31
    JV, always happy to donate a good bottle of red – or white – to a worthy occasion.

    As for Hillary pulling out – NUP! She has already factored in a loss in pledged delegates and popular vote. I think she could lose PA (which she won’t) and every other contest from here on in and STILL stay in the race.

    She’s not expecting to win pledged dels. She’s hoping to woo SD’s. They are her one chance and until they pull the rug out she is sticking around regardless of the primaries.

    Unfortunately for her, they are pulling the rug out….but very very slooooooooowly.

  36. FG,

    Which begs the question of “Why?”

    If, as the Obamaphilliacs contend, the party heavyweights are so concerned about settling the nomination, why haven’t they done it?

    1. They are not nearly as powerful and influential as they think.
    2. They want to influence the platform once they get to Denver.
    3. Obama is still a huge risk that none wants to be responsible for foisting on the wider electorate.

  37. Asanque – NC predictions based on registration numbers here:

    ‘New numbers from the North Carolina Board of Elections show that, since the first of the year, more than 165,000 new voters have registered to participate in advance of the state’s May 6 primary.

    …Forty-five percent of the new voters since January are registered as Democrats, with about 30% unaffiliated and 25% Republican. About a third are under 24 years old.’

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/01/848998.aspx

    That under 24 years old number is big. Across contests so far this has been about 15%. Where the number has been higher, it has been where his machine has been chugging. So put the obvious organisation together with the about 50% of Dem primary voters are black, and the fact that Obama is already outspending her there, and I think NC will be a blowout.

  38. GG- I believe the “horse” reference is to your initials GG, which is a nickname for the horsies (I’ve never been able to work out why).

  40. GG – you’ve gotta look at the feet of the organisation as well as the head. The endorsements keep trickling. In addition to John Melcher (@26):

    “CHEYENNE, Wyo. — Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal, a former Clinton administration appointee, announced Wednesday that he will support Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.

    …Freudenthal is the second Western governor and former Clinton appointee to endorse Obama in recent weeks. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former energy secretary and UN ambassador under Clinton, announced his support for Obama two weeks ago.

    Former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton, who was the top Democrat on the Sept. 11 Commission, also endorsed Obama on Wednesday.’

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080402/obama-endorsement/

    I have no problem with how Dean and Pelosi are managing the process, and from the looks of the continual movement to Obama, they are still getting what they want.

  41. 36
    GG, I don’t think there’s any great mystery about ‘why’. For a start, many SD’s have already hoisted their colours. Of those that are left the trickle is to Obama. As for the rest – well – politicians tend to be timorous souls afraid of making a decision till they are positiviely certain it’s a winner.

    Which is why there’s a lot of sweaty palms among the less than timorous souls who backed Hillary early on.

    Then came Super Tuesday.

  44. GG- There is a much better reason why the SDs haven’t decided yet. They are a bunch of gormless halfwits who would prefer to sit on a fence and get sliced in half rather than make a decision. I’m guessing most of them work as public service administrators by day. 😉

    And I’ve found out about GG and horses. It’s hypochoristic!

    “We hear the term gee used in the city as well as the country today, in the form gee-gee, a hypochoristic (baby talk) term for a horse. Now that we have discussed the word gee, it is probably not difficult to see whence gee-gee came. The word used to direct a horse simply came to apply to the horse. Children in the early 19th century saw horses on a daily basis, in many cases. The youngest children, just learning to speak, would hear men shouting “Gee!” to their horses, and so they, very logically for children, applied that word to the animal. It became gee-gee after the pattern of other children’s words for animals, such as bow-wow for dog and kitty cat for cat, though it was still found as gee alone, as well. The earliest record of the gee-gee usage is 1869, and this one is from 1886: “To carry two heavy boys… on his back, pretending that he was a gee-gee.” It was certainly being used as early as the first part of the 19th century, however; it usually takes some time for slang or children’s words to find their way into written form.

    So when a farmer calls haw and gee to his horses, he is etymologically saying hey and go!”

  45. asanque at 10: “I do not think he will do well with the right wing, red neck, lowly educated and the christian fundamentalist vote which will cost him.”

    It will cost him (BHO) only a little and only what was anticipated from the gitgo, asanque, as voters from these demos will support Johnny Bomb-Bomb in about the same proportions that African-Am. voters support Obi south of Mason Dixon. The groups that you mention are what The Imbecile refers to as “his base”, roughly 25 to 30% of the population who will go for the GOPper candidate even if he was Hannibal Lecter, rather than vote for a “jig”.
    —————-
    Chopper Ben makes drop to Hit-The-Wall Street Cargo Cultists. I like it Kirri Profundo!
    Those bunkered buck mercs are likely to be supplied by Kellog Brown Root, the Halliburton subsidiary. As long as “Torture Dick” Cheney is still around, mention ought to be made that these people only do canned food. Talk of tinned food defies their comprehension. “Tinned food” is a “ Hunh?!?” inducer unless augmented with the gesticulate skills of Marcel Marceau. But, by golly, don’t they just lerve to chow down on their Freedom Fries.

    Orright jv, since it was silly me who clod-hoppered like Betty Blockbuster all over the gender-bender thing, I’ll play. After a secret ballot my sleeper cell comrades have authorised me to donate a nice bottle of plonk. Winner decides grape variety.
    Hillary will have the stones to make the announcement all by herself. After a MOE-tie in PA where she once led The Kid by 29 points and the certainty of a flogging in N.C. and an Indiannan loss, she’ll pull out (campaignus interruptus) at 0900 hours NY time on Anzac day after securing a cush sinecure for herself and Bill following an all night arm-twisting session with SDs and what’s euphemistically known as the Dems’ brains trust.

    And where’s that bloody Commie Comitatus when you need him?!
    What we have here in PA is a classic “Pincer Narrowing” and no one to talk us through it.
    Pseph-Heads and Poll Scholars live for the possibility of a definitive Pincer Narrowing happening at least once in their observational lifetimes. This is the Halley’s Comet that inspires all the fear and all the loathing; the oohs, the aaahs; the popcorn passing and the online sizzle. Some vulgarians have even described it as “Money-Shot Psephology”, but having been raised as a gentleman and not a degenerate, I’m not sure I’m really ready to go there. But the world is changing fast. Bashfulness does not rest well with a tumultuous spirit. And as Uncle Duke said, “the fast lane is littered with some very expensive wrecks”.

    What’s life without the possibility of radical change? Certainty is for lawyers and economists, corporate cog-persons, government mules and 9 to 5 rat-race stiffs.
    Frorm here to November I’m gonna live like too much information is never enough!

    And how wonderful it is to note that a certain Brisbane suburban poster has emerged from his identity crisis unscathed after a decent night’s sleep.

  46. #31
    jaundiced view

    Here is one scenario:

    1. It will matter too much what the results of Pennsylvania will be providing she carries the state. If is by a very small margin she will attribute this to being outspent, effectively casting it as a victory by overcoming an impossible financial advantage held by her opponent – proving her electability in the general.

    2. Once Pennsylvania is out of the way, the news cycle will be somewhat easier – two weeks later we have Guam, Indiana and North Carolina (and my impression is the Obama will take all of these states), a week later we have West Virginia and a Clinton win. Hillary is likely to promote this as a comeback kid moment, leading the narrative for the following week which take us into Kentucky and Oregon. Clinton takes Kentucky with a media spin promoting the resurrection while Obama takes Oregon. The last two weeks kick-in and media attention goes ballistic with coverage on every waking moment of every undeclared superdelegate and Puerto Rico gets overrun with campaign personal and the media and Hillary Clinton takes the contest and asserts not only a resurrection but a winning streak.

    3. By staying in the race the onus is on the DNC and Obama campaign to provide an exit that Hillary Clinton supporters will feel is fair and just (e.g. a cabinet position, or something like Governor of NY, whatever). Things is that the longer she hangs in the more more collateral she has when negotiating the exit – and negotiations (if she stays in race) could include her actions during the convention (i.e. she gets to put the DNC between and rock and a hard place). If that process start to unwind, she can fall-back to the scenario of just appearing to do the right thing. In addition there is the long short that Obama’s campaign will go into meltdown sometime before the convention and she’ll be there to steps up to save the day.

    4. The dust settles in Denver and Obama is nominated. Disney, Viacom, TimeWarner, News Corp, Bertelsmann AG, and General Electric make a series of donations Clinton Library in appreciation for the best news story in modern American history.

    But if she looses Pennsylvania – then April 23, 10:00AM sounds about right.

  47. Apologies to the people of Montana and South Dakota – should have mentioned these two states in the above rundown – Montana and South Dakota contest are two weeks after Kentucky and one week before Puerto Rico.

  48. Codger #11
    “Which leads me to conclude that you’ve had a serious whinge from. Let me guess! I don’t think your intervention is ‘editorial”

    The only two people EVER call Codgers blogs “gibberish” are me and now William.

    Using Codger ‘logic’ then either
    William & I are the same people , or
    William & I think have similar intellect , or

    I can not handle ‘barbs’ & would secretly complain and that William would listen.
    which was what Codger concluded and said above. This is a direct & unqualified dispicable allegation to William’s integrity.

    Whilst bloggers( including I) would not insult William by defending him in detail as he will do that if he wishs , but it is still blogger’s responsibility to at least blog to say such an unqualified smear allegation is unacceptable on this site & should be withdrawn. I do so Codger.

    Before I fall off this ‘night in shining armour’ , I would hope Codgers fellow Obama supporters may give some ‘fair go’ and ‘ acceptable standards’ thought & consider at least making a statement of disapproval at the minimum ???

  49. Ferny G – Another bottle donated to the cause – good man, and I say that last thing with authority. But don’t forget your prediction. Date & time

    EC – Another bottle donated, and another good man. Your time for HRC to capitulate @ 0900 on 25 April officially noted.

    So, that’s 3 bottles of good plonk for the winner so far.
    Others?

    Junior s @ 46 – You’re not predicting the same time as me though, are you? Or is it the convention?
    Date, time and candidate required.

    And as to your point 2 junior s – possibly, if Pennsylvania is better for Hillary than 6 or 7 points, because the US MSM is always hungry for another unlikely episode, another phoenix rising from the ashes, another resurrection. But if it is close in Penn then they may prefer other angles that sell papers – the ‘how the mighty are fallen, let’s pick at the carcass’, along with the ‘wow, look at the new kid go’ angles.

    Deadline for all entries next Monday night (7th) at 9:00pm?

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