Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  1. Sol on Radio National said the latest polls were taken BEFORE the Lindsay scandal …

    Basically, said he didn’t have a clue what was going on.

  2. This is the election to right all the wrongs.

    To right the wrongs done to those workers who have had any hope of a fair deal in the workplace totally undermined by the Orwellian ‘Work Choices’.
    To right the wrongs done to those poor, wretched people seeking asylum on our shores only to end up in a stinking desert prisons for years.
    To right the wrongs done to this planet by an odious and ignorant government sitting on its hands and doing nothing about climate change.
    To right the wrongs done to our public education system which has been systematically under-funded, under-mined and vilified.
    To right the wrongs done to public health by shifting funding to the private health system, leaving those who are not truly wealthy having to put up with what can only be described as a 3rd world system.
    To right the wrongs done to higher education which has seen through years of reduced funding, universities become little more than degree factories peddling their wares to Asian students.
    To right the wrongs done to those who dare question an authoritarian regime, who have been subsequently branded as being ‘politically correct’ for asking ‘where is the justice?’, ‘where is the compassion?’ where is the fair go?’.
    To right the wrongs to our indigenous citizens who, yet again, have had their lands taken from them, their traditional lives threatened and their life span incrementally reduced to where they are now some of the lowest in the world. Where are their schools, hospitals, opportunities for work? Where are their houses and clean drinking water? WHERE IS THEIR APOLOGY?

    I could go on (and usually do!), but for those who have peddled the myths of ‘superior economic managers’ leading to Australians ‘never being better off’ then I am afraid we live in separate Australias. Comrades, fellow Australians, this is our chance for a change to right some of the wrongs. All power to the pencil.

  3. I don’t think so davo (in post-1972 politics in any case).

    The closest was the Coalition in front around 4 points in the 1990 election. However this was the “Preference Labor” campaign in which the Democrats received over 11% of the primaries and the majority of that was directed back to the ALP.

  4. And the Greens vote is gowing through the roof cause of CC and einvironment generally.

    (Ps. What irritates those on the right generally is that the hippies were right all along….)

  5. Memo to A Robb: it’s called democracy.

    For the first time in my voting life (since 1966) I really feel my vote can make a difference. Here in the ACT the results have always been clearcut. Today, Kerrie Tucker for the Greens will replace Gary Humphries in the senate. Wall-to-wall no LNP in the ACT.


  6. Gerr – Yep, I reckon the Greens are the kingmakers in this election. Will lead to some very interesting re-thinking on both sides of politics come Sunday morning…

  7. Back from doing my civic duty – here in Canberra’ west.
    A couple of observations – no Howard pictures to be seen. Surprising number of older people with ALP and Greens HTVs – just from my limited observation.

  8. the coalition has dragged out their mothballed stukas and as we speak are buzzing the electorate of dobell with vote liberal -some thiefs name attached

    oh well desperate times -desperate measures

  9. Back from voting for Maxine in Bennelong. A surprising amount of older people with Labor HTV cards were seen. BIG presence by YRAW and GetUp. One Liberal party supporter appeared to have fallen asleep at their table, which was very quiet.

  10. Off to vote in the heart of Toryland. Just saw Sportsbet on Sky saying that they have had seen a tremendous amount of support for Maxine in Bennelong.


  11. A big advantage to Greens is that Bob Brown has become a fixture as a credible Senate Leader, in the way that Dem Leaders were before Kernot defected, and Lees/ Bartlett self-destructed.

  12. My song for the election: Elvis Costello, Tramp the Dirt Down

    I saw a newspaper picture from the political campaign
    A woman was kissing a child, who was obviously in pain
    She spills with compassion, as that young childs
    Face in her hands she grips
    Can you imagine all that greed and avarice
    Coming down on that childs lips

    Well I hope I dont die too soon
    I pray the lord my soul to save
    Oh Ill be a good boy, Im trying so hard to behave
    Because theres one thing I know, Id like to live
    Long enough to savour
    That when they finally put you in the ground
    I’ll stand on your grave and tramp the dirt down

    Howard, Thatcher, same diff.

  13. OK. I am from England.

    When i was young in 1992 I was labour (uk labour).

    Labour led all the way in the polls. It moved away from them in the last few days. Polls open at 7am in UK. At 10am Labour had 38% (enough to be biggest party). This fell away to 37% at noon 36% at 5 pm and 35% at close of polls at 10pm. This is because those who worked ie voting conservative came out to vote. Con won by 7% and 21 seats – if 1500 out of 40,000,000 had voted differently then it would have been hung parliament.

    This is what is happening NOW in australia. (My earlier post about Coaltion lead was rubbish – i have no info). But it is slippling away from labor. Labor was falling in the polls in the last few days. When the exit poll comes out (presumably 6pm AEST) expect coalition to be ahead.

    AND THE PROBLEM FOR LABOR IS – in UK labour can win (and could have won in 92) on less % than Con. Your Labor does not have that luxury.

  14. The Centrebet (?) boss was on Sky news interview with Helen, calling it a Landslide for Labor and crying poor about all the money he will lose.

    Betting closes at Noon.

  15. Just voted in Lindsay for David Bradbury.

    The libs HTV were being heavily ignored. A great sign. Going to a great day. I can feel it. Might be a long night but with the right outcome for Kev in the end. !

  16. 100 Mad Professor, they should have had you writing Kev’s speeches, what a stirring summation of all the reasons to vote out this swill. Well spoken and hear hear.
    Just listened to my voicemail, it was King Rat with his hideous voice urging me to vote for him. Fat chance you f###### turkey, interesting that I live in McPherson, with about 14% very safe Liberal, are they randomly doinf this or does it mean that their internal polling has told them that even 14% is not enough. YAY.

  17. Morning all. Off to do my bit for YR@W at the polling booth. I’m in a pretty safe Labor area, but I’ll let you know what I pick up, if anything.

    Hello especially to Julie, you legend, and the Finnegans, whose latest CD I’m going to buy. 🙂

    Go the Tassie Greens!

  18. Bet boss is astonished that Howard’s seat is so close, and that he got a huge ($20K) bet on Joanna Gash in Gilmour this week at $1.14 (local Illawarra Mercury opinion poll showed her taking 53% of 2PP).

  19. THis site is great esp today where we’ve got exit type polling…

    Well if we’re not polling actual votes, we’re polling the ‘vibe’.

    Keep up the ‘Good Vibrations’

  20. 119
    I know we have been warned about responding to this idiot. He doesn’t even know that we have compulsory voting here as against optional voting in the Old Dart.

  21. Yep, it was Sportingbet, not Centrebet boss. I missed Helen’s intro and tuned in when I heard him say landslide! He repeated that beautiful word many times!

  22. Sorry Ave It 07, a couple of points, this is Aust not the UK. People want to see the end of Howard. Kevin Rudd is well like and respected. Climate change is a big issue and many people will vote minor parties and the preference the ALP.All the polls taken as late as last night are saying ALP by a big way. The betting markets are predicting a big Labor win. If they do the bookies will lose big time. The bookies have predicted the correct outcome of the election every time. !

  23. Don’t appreciate ppl who ‘used to be labor’

    then became mindless gormless gutless heartless bloodsucking zombies…I mean look at poor flatulent Piers, He’s enough to make you sick…very sick.

  24. Gerr, good call. Andrew Bolt is another, and it seems Barry Cassidy might soon be desperately seeking a News Ltd. clown columnist job as well.

  25. Ave it all is the non thinking persons poll pundit. The idiot sans savant. And what’s worse…he’s English! (At least he aint Dutch I guess…..or piers ackerman.)

  26. What there something on the ABC 702,about Anthony Green predicting a hung parliament with 2 Independents? Was driving through rain after voting so not 100% attention…..please tell me I am wrong!

  27. Gerr @ 127. I hope you are right. ! Would love to be able to relax and drink while waiting for Howard to concede and Kev to claim the prize.. I have a TV card in my PC…I can record it as it happens. Will make a lovely DVD.

  28. As an Australian resident for some years in Britain, who gets to vote in British elections (and whose vote helped elect an anti-war Liberal Democrat in the last election) and Labour candidates to councils and Parliament, I can understand the pleasure of spreading one’s political beliefs across the globe. But I’m perplexed as to why someone with no obvious association with or knowledge of Australian politics would bother to comment on an election that has nothing at all to do with them, unless they enjoy looking foolish. (Then again, much can be said about some of the Aussie tories who come here, so…)

  29. PIERS TOADFISH WAS A Bleeding heart lefty COMMO! Look up Lathams expose in parliament on Albrecthsen and Ackerman, Ill try find the link.

    Warning though, it’ll make you physically sick.

  30. Basil Fawlty (#122) was the Howard message left on a landline or mobile phone number? If it was left on a landline in McPherson it indicates that the Libs know things are very serious there – as we have suspected for a couple of months. If it was left on your mobile number then that is an altogether new type of campaigning – how would they link the number to a location – think of the cost etc etc.

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