Morgan: 53.5-46.5

Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.

In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers – you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3” post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

595 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5”

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  8. Over the church and its grounds but not anywhere else in the street. IT IS TEAMING WITH RAIN.
    If you stare for a while at the ground you can see the brown grass turning green and new shoots sprouting up.
    The drought is about to BREAK !!!

    Some people do say it rains more when the ALP is in government. Guess the weather gods already know the result.

    I have diagnosed Overington: Narcisstic personality disorder IMHO

    My totally non professional opinon is she is suffering from prolonged constipation, ie full of….

    If Newhouse doesn’t press charges he’s a a #@#$ idiot!

    Just hope Overington never gets the hots for Milne. They might breed!!

    Yes there is a very valid school of thought that Kerry won in 2004 but for some polling ‘irregularities’ in Ohio and certain other places…

    The AEC are trialling electronic voting with the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not sure what it entails but US type electronic voting machines must be resisted at all costs.

  20. Re Overington – she’s recently separated iirc. Wonder if she’s lost it a bit as a reult of that.

    Anyway, take this with a greain of salt, ALP exit polling v. good in Lindsay, v. good Parramatta, not very good Wentworth, 50-50 Bennelong. Apparetnyl a big swing on in SA.

  27. Just back from voting in Hume. For what it’s worth, an acquaintance who has been an electoral officer for many elections here told me that he has seen a marked increase in people entering with labor HTVs compared to previous elections. In his view the swing is on. Keep in mind that Hume is one of the safest LNP seats in the country, but that booths in Goulburn (where I voted) are generally pretty solid Labor.

    We should be in for an interesting night. Can’t wait for news about the exit polls.

  28. Just got back from the hustings in Parra. If I’ve missed it, can someone enlighten me on the prevailing thoughts re. accuracy of exit polling?

  31. It is still raining over the church in Oxford St where Rudd voted.
    In some of the bushes in the garden there are foraging dodos and a mother is suckling 6 baby Tassie Tigers.
    Also a bemused Harold Holt is being sat down and been given a cup of tea as he drys off.

  49. I’m in Deakin and I saw plenty of posters with Howard and Costello on them. Pity they were ALP posters. Their pictures were bloody awful.

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