Newspoll: 52-48

Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,500 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

Comments Page 26 of 30
1 … 25 26 27 … 30

  1. Howard Hater,
    Arbib has said exactly the same thing every week on Skynews, where every time the Lib opponent has eaten him for lunch. What a sorry advert for Labor instead of a Penny Wong with her steely glare and razor edged voice.

  2. On November 21/22, with just one day until the Federal election, L-NP two-party preferred support is 45.5% (up 1% from the telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 15-17), ALP 54.5% (down 1%). This represents a swing of 7.2% to the ALP since the 2004 Federal election. However, in 22 key L-NP marginal seats, where Labor needs to win 16 seats to win Government, the swing is less (5.2% to ALP). Coalition primary support is 40.5% (up 0.5%), while ALP support is 44.5% (down 2%). Full article.

    From Morgan site

  3. Oh yeah I hope Labor promote Penny Wong – she could be shadow finance to Medicare Gold’s shadow treasurer. That would be the Liberal partys dream team.

  10. Been reading comments this evening and it appears that many worriers are now calming down a bit, having many good folk here remind them about MoE and trend (it’s the trend, stupid!).

    Labor are the closest you’ll ever see to a sure thing tomorrow, and it won’t be close. I expect at least 90 seats, and am hoping that they’ll meet my prediction of 106.

    Those still worrying should think about it more closely and remember:

    103 polls in a row predicting a Labor victory (not just a lead)
    average TPP of around 54 in those polls, and also in the most recent polls today
    Galaxy and Newspoll always considered somewhat suspect by most
    Rudd campaigning in Liberal ‘safe’ seats
    Rodent campaigning in Liberal ‘safe’ seats
    QLD swing of about 8-12%
    SA swing about 7.5-10%
    Vic swing 5% and moving up
    NSW swing about 7.5%, and still going
    WA moving back to Labor over last few weeks
    Workchoices

    Bookies are irrelevant – poll trends are not.

    9:00pm tomorrow night we’ll all be safe from another term of therodent and Smirk. Then the fun begins!

    Good luck to all those working for the betterment of the country tomorrow at Labor polling booths – i know you, and the country, will be well rewarded.

    And thanks to all for the interesting and illuminating commentary over the past few months.

    Thanks also to william for making this possible. I look forward to reviewing, and possibly participating in, tomorrow night’s and Sunday’s celebrations.

  11. Hey, no worries LTEP I rang Lib HQ and on Thursday and told them i wasn’t going to be renewing my Liberal party membership. I told them I had heard Jackie Kelly on the radio and was outraged. A couple of friends did this too.

    Only thing is none of us are members of any party.

  13. Hemingway-Thanks for the compliment. It’s nice to be appreciated! Actually, the point I was making is that everyone seems to be acting as if tomorrow will be the end of the world if the Rodent gets back in, or that we will be living in an Elysian paradise if Rudd wins. Neither is the case.

  14. WTF? Kroger laments that the Liberals can’t get donations from business.

    Maybe if the Liberals had better policies more businesses would donate to them?

  15. I just like to DECLARE that to all pollbludgers that now that election day is upon us that I just want to say to all left and right that I have enjoyed this adventure with you all.
    If you appreciate this service that William Bowe provides for us nerds then get a tener or what you can afford & donate to this great web site to keep it going.

    There is a paypal box on the left column on the opening page if you are inclined to be generous and it will sustain our secret corner of the web.

  18. [I just like to DECLARE that to all pollbludgers that now that election day is upon us that I just want to say to all left and right that I have enjoyed this adventure with you all.]

    Happy Democracy Day!

  20. VoterBoy @ 1159. You de man. I love the optimism. I’m sticking with 89, but after reflecting on Newspoll I would like to go a bit higher.

  21. Edward StJohn Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 11:30 pm
    Oh yeah I hope Labor promote Penny Wong – she could be shadow finance to Medicare Gold’s shadow treasurer. That would be the Liberal partys dream team.

    It is a credit to labour that Penny Wong is the opposite to Andrew Robb. Most Australians are very racist. If Rudd was so risk adverse he would not have Wong in this position. So media important. 2 weeks ago 2GB tried to have her arrested when she turned up for a interview with Ray Hadlee.

  22. BTW – The LNP desperately needs to get beaten so it can actually be rebuilt as the Liberal party and, not some personal Howard fiefdom of hard right-wing hacks and weirdos.

  24. In SA, Centrebet for Sturt has seen Mia Handshin’s odds close in dramatically to 2.05 (as opposed to Christopher Pyne’s odds of 1.68). This will be a seat to watch!

  25. I would like to say that win, lose or draw, I have appreciated the contributions of several coalition supporters, especially those that had the good grace to present opposing points of view politely to a largely hostile audience. To those few, you have made this site more enjoyable than had it merely been a partisan self congratulatory back patting festival.

    Kudos

  26. Kroger is Costello’s gimp. And thick as a brick. And implicated at every point in the internecine warfare of the Victorian Liberal Party. Vic Labor owes him.

  28. Penny Wong will have a major role in the incoming rudd administration.

    She is devastating as a debater. An idea replacement for faulkner in senate estimates committees

  29. Nothing personal against Penny Wong or any of the candidates on either side but there aint a lot of naturally gregarious ones?

    Penny Wong may be bright but that demeanour will kill off any serious hopes of advancement

  31. 1252 ESJ- I think not. Too much damage early to her rep although she has tried hard to overcome it. I am tipping Mia to beat Pyne, as well as the obvious three marginals (although not by as much as most say, they’re pretty pissed off that Labor has assumed they’re in the bag). And my roughie is that Labor has a good chance of getting Grey. It seems to have gone under the radar and losing the sitting member, who was hugely popular, might make the difference.

  32. Lionel Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 11:32 pm

    and am hoping that they’ll meet my prediction of 106.

    I want Howard’s politics buried deep, so deep a midnight seance couldn’t get them to stir. I want 105 seats to labor, but I will be happy with 76.

  33. Sorry if others have alrady gone over this but there is more than just trend to calm the nervous. Newspoll changed the way they allocated preferences in their last reported poll! With the Green vote up and most preferencing Labor, this makes a big difference. If I understand Poss correctly, and Newspoll had allocated preferences consistently, it would be 54/46 🙂

    There is no narrowing in a week where the government got caught on two separate smear scams, one involving racism. Labor will win. Sleep well.

  34. Kevin Rudd’s thank you to many of us – his supporters. I guess there would be many of us have today received this one:

    Dear friends,

    On this eve of this election, I just wanted to take a moment to pause, and say thank you.

    Tomorrow, you and millions of your fellow Australians will head to your local polling booth, for the final say in this campaign. And in less than 48 hours, you will help decide the future of our great nation.

    I know that you have been at the core of this journey from day one: showing your support in shopping centres and on the streets; talking about our country’s challenges around the dinner table, at work and online through websites like KEVIN07; volunteering your time, sharing your stories and pitching in your Small Change for Big Changes to help drive our message home.

    Over the last year – and in particular the last six weeks – I have travelled our country: from North Queensland to Tasmania, from Grafton to Perth. I’ve been fortunate to meet thousands of new supporters and friends; people who have reminded me just why this election matters, and strengthened my belief that Australia deserves nothing but the very best.
    It is of course my profound hope that we will awake the day after tomorrow to New Leadership.

    New Leadership to set a positive course for our future.

    New Leadership with fresh ideas to rise to the challenges before us.

    And New Leadership to renew the core values of fairness, honesty and decency which the Australian people always strive for.

    If given the immense privilege and opportunity to lead Australia, I will work tirelessly, and my team will work tirelessly, to fulfil our commitment and to make Australia even better.

    Thank you,

    Kevin Rudd,

  35. “1256
    CL de Footscray Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 11:35 pm
    VoterBoy @ 1159. You de man. I love the optimism. I’m sticking with 89, but after reflecting on Newspoll I would like to go a bit higher.”

    Hey, someone’s got to stick their neck out.

    And a helpful story to all you nervous nellies out there. I wasn’t here when Blair got in (funnily enough I was walking through the streets of Richmond with a radio glued to my ear), but every single Labor voter I’ve ever spoken to said that they really didn’t believe Blair could pull it off. Despite all the polls, all the evidence from the tenor of the campaign, all the news stories of Tory hopelessness, they still thought that Major will pull a rabbit out of his hat, as he had in the previous election.

    So it’s completely normal to be as nervous as hell. I am too, believe me. But I still think Rudd’s going to cream the little sh!t. And I think we’ll see some remarkable surprises on the night.

  37. I say Labor with a minimum of 80 seats tomorrow night. But no matter who wins can I just say it’s great to live in a democracy. I’ve been to plenty of countries where the people can only dream of the freedoms we have. Win or lose tomorrow I am happy and proud to be an Australian. For any I may have offended with my comments I apologise but you know I’ll probably just do it all over again next time there’s an election on. William you’ve done an awesome job. Good luck everyone, but more good luck to the Labor voters.

  39. kina Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 11:37 pm

    BTW – The LNP desperately needs to get beaten so it can actually be rebuilt as the Liberal party and, not some personal Howard fiefdom of hard right-wing hacks and weirdos.

    I was hoping for a liberal party, the it’s name ( Liberal) has some meaning.

  40. God I thought I was the only one who loathed Kroger at first sight watching him closely on LL. That cosmopolitan laugh, those unseeing, supercilious, fluttering eyes with an expression of the most curious emptiness, that patronising patter, the airy joke every time Bob made a point he’d rather avoid (like how WorkChoices affects ordinary people). You know he knows he maddens people with that born-to-rule act, so the best thing to do is not to get angry but to treat it with the contempt that this kind of rudeness and silliness dressed up as worldly sophistication deserves. It wouldn’t surprise me though that this will be the next Hydra head of the Liberal Party coming up.

  41. ESJ
    Penny Wong’s demeanour? From a party that has put Phillip “Palpatine” Ruddock, Tony “Mad Monk” Abbott and Kevin Andrews in Cabinet, that is laughable.

  43. Eritnycam 1261, I endorse those comments, to those Tories who were genuinely putting forward their views in a sometimes exuberant environment, well done. Get a decent leader next time though, preferably small l liberal. Send the neo-anderthals to the gulag where they belong.

  46. Kroger has every reason to be gumpy and pissed off. Back in the day when he and Cossie were masters of all they surveyed in the heady world of student politics they got their jollies dreaming of the day that Pete would be the PM and Kroges would be there as the ‘man behind the man’. Alas Pete lacked the courage of his convictions and will go down as a latter day Richard Casey, the man who would be king but was too much of a wimp and who was continually outfoxed by an older, hungrier man. So long suckers.

  47. Understand the financial mood of the country and you will understand its politics. People generally feel the economy is sound; in fact they have so much faith in it that millions have overextended themselves in debt.
    I don’t want to argue economics here, frankly don’t know enough about it, but I do know many are doing it tough. People are nervous, and more than a little insecure. These are not sentiments conducive towards change.
    Earlier favourable polls were likely the result of people expressing their difficulties. On Election Day, because of these difficulties, the same people could retreat back to Howard.
    Unfortunately the fear campaign is working and the mob in power always knew it was their best bet. Once again fear may be paying off big time for the conservatives.

    I hope I’m wrong

  48. # 1265
    Edward StJohn Said:

    “Nothing personal against Penny Wong or any of the candidates on either side but there aint a lot of naturally gregarious ones?

    Penny Wong may be bright but that demeanour will kill off any serious hopes of advancement”

    “Nothing personal against Penny Wong” Crap – we all know what you imply. Dog whistle !

    You show a serious lack of understanding of the scope of prospective roles for a senator with serious talent in a party in government, “slow eddie’ but I expect this has been a feature of your unfortunate life.

    Tell us the truth – really little eddie smith – always slow and dumb until he joined the libs – then he became smart

  50. Tory Crimes you can’t reasonably blame Tip for being pissed off. Just imagine being personally screwed by the rodent for over a decade.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 26 of 30
1 … 25 26 27 … 30