Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders

The Sunday Fairfax papers (see here and here) carry a Taverner poll covering mortgage holders only from Sydney and Melbourne, showing a 57-43 lead to Labor. There was apparently a similar poll published during the 2004 campaign which had the Coalition leading 54-46 among this group, but I can’t find any record of it. Seats in which this looks like bad news for the Coalition include La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen in and around Melbourne, and Lindsay, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur in the Sydney area.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders”

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  2. Re the Mrs Pyne letter…

    From the story this morning… “The names and ages of the women – with a target age of around 40 – were sourced through the electoral rolls.”

    This is an extract from the AEC:
    “Under provisions of the CEA, Members of Parliament, political parties, approved medical researchers and public health screening programs may also be supplied with confidential roll information. For medical health researchers, this may, include electors’ gender and age range information.”

    “A Member of the House of Representatives is entitled to receive elector information for the division for which they were elected and any other division, following a redistribution, which contains a part of their elected division;…”

    “The use of this data is restricted to…any purpose in connection with an election or referendum”

    And also…
    “In the past mailing houses were able to purchase the electoral roll and use the information for non-electoral purposes. The roll is no longer available for sale in any format.”

    The use of the electoral rolls, including access to the age of voters, by Mrs Pyne could just be illegal.
    Is Mrs Pyne acting like a “Mail House” or is she acting “in connection with an election or referendum”?
    She is not the candidate – she has no more right to personal information contained in the rolls than any one else. She has, as a private person, used age on the rolls to target voters – and has gained access to this information from her husband’s position as an MHR.

    Highly dubious at best. Illegal at worst.

  6. Barrie Cassidy is a winger!!! He needs to get over the fact that no punter watches a political program like insiders! And now he is acting like a Coalition lover. Julia is killing him!

  7. Julia looks good but it’s a boring interview. Cassidy is just nit picking to try to find something he can trip her up on. No wonder not many people watch the show.

  8. Cassidy needs to get some perspective. The reality is 80% of his viewers are dyed in the wool ALP voters, so harassing Julia isn’t going to go down too well.

    Too be honest I’m finding this interview very irritating, he’s behaving like a petulant child, trying desperately to make her look bad about SOMETHING.

  15. If the Galaxy poll is to be believed and the swing in the marginals is less than all electorates average, say around 4%, it then follows that the swing in the non marginals while be greater than the average say aroud 10 to 12 %. Look out Smirk and Lord Downer we’re comin to get ya.

  17. SA Seat Predictions Part 1: Kingston

    You only need to look at the last dozen or so election results in this seat to see that it swings back and forth all the time, and I expect this election to be no different. The mix of candidates here is interesting, particularly with the lateish arrival of the former state liberal minister, Robert Brokenshire standing as the family first candidate. Because of this, I have revised down my expectation of the swing to labor in Kingston. No offence to Bill Weller, a regular contributor to this site, but I think the green vote will drop below the 7% they polled in 2004, with some green voters returning to Rudd labor. I expect the booths around Hallett Cove to swing most heavily towards labor, as they did at the state election in 2006.

    So, a labor gain, with predicted 2PP swing of 6%.

  18. I watched Oakes vs Tip on Sunday. Laurie was clearly fed up with Smirk and openly bagged him. He asked how a Costello Govt would differ from a Rodent one and Cossie clearly had given the matter no thought. Could only come up with being a Republican.

  20. I watched a little of Insiders earlier. Julia wiped the floor with Cassidy.
    Barry is behaving like a petulant 5 year old, all because Kevin Rudd refused to go on his pathetic, low rating, pro Howard show: what a cry baby!

  21. SA Seat Predictions Part 1: Makin

    This is a seat that labor people in south australia will enjoy watching out for on election night, hoping that the liberal candidate Bob Day doesn’t win. Bob Day, as William points out in his analysis is a veteran of the industrial relations wars, and is closely associated with the HR Nicholls Society, and has written some controversial papers on minmum wage (or lack thereof) policy.

    The Labor candidate Tony Zappia, stood at the 2004 election, and is the mayor of the city of Salisbury, and thus has a strong recognition factor, particularly with the retirement of the sitting member, Trish Draper. This gives Zappia an added edge in this seat. Labor has been stressing Zappia’s efforts with water recycling programs as Mayor.

    I think the anti-workchoices feeling in Makin, coupled with the recognition factor of Zappia, and his environmental credentials point to a hefty swing to labor.

    So, a labor gain, with a predicted swing of 8%.

  24. Judy 38

    My wife also received the letter from Carolyn Pyne in Sturt on Friday. She felt it had a rather condescending tone and wasn’t impressed. It focused almost totally on women as homemakers and there was barely one line on issues for working women. In an electorate with a very high education level and a lot of working women, it really missed the mark.

    The letter almost had a begging aspect (don’t put poor hard-working Chris out of a job; he has 3 kids!) which was rather pathetic. It isn’t meant to be a job for life. Plus, after ten years on a salary package 3 times the average wage, its hard to imagine Chris Pyne is struggling.

  25. Rudd to use a cricket term used a nightwatchman on insiders today but Julia a very good batsman in any case only had to face naked off spinner who could not turn a bottle top.
    I am watching in Brizzy so on delay but the first question why was the launch delayed. God what a powderpuff didnt even hit the pitch.

  26. Really annoying on Insiders that they pursued the line of a “willful” Rudd not answering questions of reporters, ignoring the fact that Howard’s record on this is simply appalling, obfuscation being his middle name, and “small target” in 1996 his overall strategy.

  28. SA Seat Predictions Part 3: Wakefield

    I first have to admit, I don’t feel as comfortable predicting this one, as the nature of the seat is much more heterogeneous than most of the other adelaide seats, taking in areas such as elizabeth, to rural areas around gawler and angle vale.

    There is also evidence to suggest the local member David Fawcett is quite hard-working, which might well save him from the sort of swings that are likely to be seen elsewhere in Adelaide. Also, in parts of the seat, I don’t see workchoices being the issue it may well be elsewhere.

    For the reasons above, I think Wakefield will move less to labor than the state average, but when you are on a margin of 4/5 of bugger all, you’re still dead.

    So, a labor gain, with a 2PP swing of 5%.

  29. Fair to assume, I think, that the various newspapers will give a separate voter recommendation for their weekday editions.

    So while The Sunday Age has urged voters one way or another, The Age itself might well – and probably will – make a recommmendation for Labor.

    On Insiders, I think Barrie Cassidy is entitled to query Kevin Rudd’s decision not to appear on any of its shows since the election campaign started. This is a programme devoted solely to politics. It is in the interests of the democratic process that the alternative PM submit himself to this sort of interview at least once during an election campaign.

  30. We can talk about margins of error all we want

    But there is a poll coming out that has a MOE of 0%

    It comes out next Saturday night, and the sample size is 13,645,073

    Actually, what is the formula for working out MOE?

  31. SA Seat Predictions Part 4: Boothby

    Now, I chose the easiest 3 SA electorates first, and I don’t think too many people would argue with my assessment of those being picked up by labor.

    Boothby is one of those that everybody will be looking out for on election night. Was Nicole Cornes the right choice ? Is she a disaster ? Will her grass-roots campaign style be effective ? All questions that remain unanswered until next Saturday night, or maybe later if it’s close.

    I work at Flinders University, in the heart of Boothby, and have many friends and colleagues that live within this seat. I can honestly say, I have found little evidence of people wanting to vote directly for Nicole Cornes, in spite of my words of biased labor wisdom. However, I distinctly detect an equal unwillingness to vote for Southcott. A number of people have indicated they will be voting greens and sending their preference to Cornes. So it is for this reason I think a high greens vote will be essential for Cornes to win here. And if she wins, it will be a close-run thing.

    The green vote last time was 7%, which is fairly decent. I suspect it will be much higher this time, easily getting over 10%. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict 12% !

    So, I’m caught in 2 minds, but I don’t think Cornes has done enough, and will just miss out. Liberal retain. (2PP swing to labor of 4%)

  32. What about Barry having a sook to Gillard about Rudd not coming on Insiders?

    Let’s see, who watches more: Insiders or Rove?

    So who will you turn gay for? LOL

  33. Ahh, nice figures 57/43. Gives you great confidence in your fellow Australians. It has come to the point where swinging or small L voters should certainly feel guilty voting for the Coconut.

    Bolt on insiders this morning reckons Rudd is going to have difficulty and must prove that he can conservatively manage the books. How long did it take Costello to deliver his first budget surplus? 5 weeks you CLOWN.

    The journalists have had their back sides kicked in this election. At least Bolt is entertaining. Hacks like Ackerman, Farr and Milne should move on. As for Australian, nobody reads it anyway.

  34. [ I think Barrie Cassidy is entitled to query Kevin Rudd’s decision not to appear ]

    I don’t think anyone minds Barry saying he was disappointed, etc but he went overboard. He mentioned it in his intro which was OK but then he kept on about in the interview and wouldn’t drop it until Julia G hit back with the “gilted lover” comment. Bringing it up was OK but to keep on going and make it the main point of the interview was very unprofessional.

  35. ‘it is in the interests of the democratic process that the alternative PM submit himself to this sort of interview at least once during an election campaign’

    why? exactly what would it achieve?

    looks a bit of a desperate smear to me … if that is how you pick pm the democratic process lets you. just seems awefully hollow and lacking in substance to me. Remember Rudd wanted two more debates you must have a very very very short term memory if you are trying to make a case for Rudd avoiding scrutiny. Pathetic.

    It is just one Sunday morning show while most of us are at church praying for JHW’s defeat.

  36. I collected the mail from the PO Box this morning -a very trick and dubious looking pamphlet. At first glance it looks like it might be from Labor on the topic of small business. It headlines “10 Things You need to know about Labor’s plan for your small business”. Open it up the line is “10 Things Labor will do to your small business” goes into a lot of union bashing.

    This is in Warringah, and possibly a response to The Mad Monk’s stuff up on SerfChoices (And as an aside, I almost cant believe that on Insiders they still persisted with the ‘edited tape’ bull, every time they say it I will say that I was there and The Mad Monk definitely uttered those words).

    One of the paragraphs in this pamphlet is:

    1.Return of Unfair Dismissal laws.

    Labor will re-introduce unfair dismissal laws for all small businesses, making it easier for disgruntled employees to make frivolous caims for ‘go-away money’. Once again, small business operators will hesitate before taking on new staff. (Source:Labor workplace plan p19, 28/04/07)

    I like the ‘go-away money’ – says it all really. This is not only how the Liberal Party sees the average worker, it how the Liberal Party sees the majority of Australians. This was also the point stressed by The Mad Monk – that as an Australian your worth is as a commodity to business.

    I’d be interested if any one else has seen this pamphlet.

    It was printed locally by a company “Snap Printing Dee Why, Suite 6/11-13 Oaks Avenue, Dee Why NSW 2099”. I think Snap won’t be getting any business via me. It was authorised by our good mate Brian Loughnane of the ACT, I might have expected it to be authorised in NSW?

  37. Not many people may read the oZ but it competes with AM to influence the agenda of the day. Of course Janet A is a pretty poor Maureen Dowd

  38. SA Seat Predictions Part 5: Sturt

    This is my favourite seat to watch in SA on election night. Mia Handshin has had terrific press in Adelaide, and seems to have performed well against the struggling incumbent, Chris Pyne. The more and more I analyse this seat, the more I am convinced that Pyne is toast. The Advertsier polls have certainly offered hope to labor, with a victory well within the margin of error of the polling. I ignore the Adelaide Uni poll, as they have no reputation on which to fall-back on.

    Handshin is the right sort of candidate to appeal to the well-to-do voters , who inhabit approximately 70% or so of Sturt. Additionally, I think workchoices will swing the northern more working class booths of Sturt in droves to labor. Small “l’ liberal values are well entrenched in much of Sturt, and this is going to cost Pyne votes, in my opinion.

    So, I’m predicting a labor gain in Sturt, with a 2PP swing of 8%.

  39. Don’t get me wrong: I think it is politically smart for Kevin Rudd to sidestep Insiders for the duration of the campaign.

    However, surely, here we have a publicly-funded weekly TV show, devoted solely to politics. And here we have the alternative PM. Surely, as a matter of principle, if he is truly say: “Here I am, scrutinise my credentials to lead the nation” it is reasonable for him to appear just once on the show during the campaign.

    I have no barrow to push for Barrie Cassidy. In fact I would prefer there was a sufficiently deep pool of talent that we did not have to have a former high profile political press secretary fronting a politics TV show.

  40. Has the rodent appeared on Insiders during the election? I can’t remember him being on…

    Speaking of Insiders, missed it this morning – how long does the website take to get the clips up, anyone know?

  41. The Sundy Age ‘Editorial’ is insipid. No wonder they don’t know their *ssholes from their elbows. I mean really, one would expect a little more bang for your buck, so Howard has done nothing wrong? OH REALLY? F*ckwits. As for the other sunday papers well you’d expect no more or less from the ill mannered and ill bred.

  43. The Sun Herald web site dosen’t have it but the Sydney Sun-Herald has endorsed labor. Adam can tell us I am sure but i think this is the first Fairfax paper endorsement of the ALP since 1961.

  44. The Insiders was another love in this morning, pretty boring, I liked Paul Kelly most of all Malcome Farr is a moron, Misch was ok, and Bolty was far too accomodating (if right in tacitly supporting the change of gov.).

    Barry Cassidy was bitch slapped by Gillard a beauty. Poor Bazza went the sulks.

  45. 88 Flash. Unless your name is Missy H., you can’t have it both ways in.
    Like Bazza Cassidy is the top political “g(o)riller” going around.

  46. [ Speaking of Insiders, missed it this morning ]

    There’s an audio version on ABC News Radio at 11am. The clips may not be on the web site until late tonight or tomorrow.

  47. Matthew, keep ’em coming. Perhaps we could request the indulgence of Mr Bludger for a separate thread for individual seat predictions? (separate from the seat du jour threads for marginals?)

  49. 88
    Flash Says:
    November 18th
    ‘In fact I would prefer there was a sufficiently deep pool of talent that we did not have to have a former high profile political press secretary fronting a politics TV show.’
    Press Secretary/chief of staffs have an inside runs. Look at Meet the Press USA and This week on ABC US both are fronted by former staffers one was for a NY senator the other to Bill Clinton.

  50. Have to agree, Flash.

    Asking Cassidy to go quietly on this is just like wanting the Auditor-General to keep shtum about matters that are his legitimate purview. It’s his show, it’s one of the few shows that treats politics in real depth, I think he had a right to say what he did.

    On the other hand, if I were Rudd’s minders, I’d certainly be advising Rudd to not appear. It provides absolutely no political gain — minimal audience of Canberrans and ALP tragics, after all — and there’s always a risk Cassidy could throw him a curve ball and freak up his final week. We’ve had 11 years of Unca H, their policy has to be, what will win us the election?

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