The Sunday Fairfax papers (see here and here) carry a Taverner poll covering mortgage holders only from Sydney and Melbourne, showing a 57-43 lead to Labor. There was apparently a similar poll published during the 2004 campaign which had the Coalition leading 54-46 among this group, but I can’t find any record of it. Seats in which this looks like bad news for the Coalition include La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen in and around Melbourne, and Lindsay, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur in the Sydney area.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2093975.htm
This, from the ABC news website, will help to shape the agenda in terms of economic management as this final week gets under way. A very bad look for Costello..
“Federal Treasurer Peter Costello has brushed aside questions about whether the Coalition has included pay for members of its proposed hospital boards in its policies submitted to the Finance Department for costing.
I don’t know about the Sun-Herald. I think Oakeshott is right is saying that the SMH has not endorsed federal Labor since 1961, when Sir Warwick Fairfax was feuding with Menzies. (A SMH journalist was seconded to Calwell’s staff and wrote his policy speech for him.)
And just a quick aside on some of the topics this morning.
Terror graph – now apparently supporting the RuddStar
Insiders – attacking RuddStar and Gillard.
I think it is becoming obvious that the Liberals have lost Liberal voters, this is much more threatening than the late swingers. The approach from the media will be to get back some of those (ex) Liberals, and that will be done making them hesitant of a landslide to Labor. The Liberals have lost people who in the past have been silent core-supporters.
Cassidy had every right to expect Rudd and Rudd had every right not to appear. But he should have.
But then again this game is for keeps and so why give a sucker an even break? You wouldn’t unless you were behind and had nothign to lose.
On Rudds “no show’ on Insiders. Rudds media strategy has been to minimise risk, avoid negatives and accentuate positives so the decision not to appear was consistent with the strategy (there was nothing in it for him) up to the point when the decision not to appear became story in itself and there has been a bit of negative press.
Would he have received more negative press from a more intense one on one interview by Cassidy ? We’ll never know.
I’ve seen two disappointing performances from balanced political correspondants in the last few days. The first was Mark Reilly’s inability to pick a winner of week 5 when it was clear for all to see the it was Rudd. The second was Barry Cassidy’s hardline attack on Gillard and indirectly on Rudd, when he let Howard get away with murder a few weeks ago.
I think it is safe to assume that Barrie Cassidy would have gone in hard on the question of the delay in the Labor launch. It is not so much the fact of the delay (trivia at best) as Rudd’s curious statement that he was unaware things were running late. This from a man who is clearly very much in control of all that he surveys. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was part of Rudd’s thinking in avoiding Insiders, aside from the broader, well made point that there was no political upside, only potential downside.
So what was the delay about? Last minute scratching of some spending maybe?
RE Pyne’s wife’s letter to female voters
I really do think this may backfire – the language has really been dumbed down & gives the distinct impression that she is inferior to her husband who is off “interstate” doing important stuff she doesn’t really understand but supports.
As I mentioned in my posts last night, my wife received this letter, as did my sister-in-law. Speaking with both of them who generally don’t have a great interest in politics, they find it quite offensive & degrading.
I was also interested to read an earlier post suggesting the use of the electoral roll in this way may be illegal.
Would love to see the press puruse this further.
If people know anyone who is insulted by this letter, I’d be encouraging them to write letters to the editor of the Advertiser.
This smorgasbord of polls today carries a few contradictions. It’s quite unclear what the real swing is in NSW, Vic and Qld. However, it’s clear that there’s enough of a swing, in all polls, to get Labor over the line.
I find the Taverver mortgage belt poll intriguing, and am not certain what it means. As the pollster states, the economy was an important issue for those polled, but interest rates themselves weren’t as big an issue. And people with mortgages above $200,000 are more likely to vote Liberal than those with lower mortgages.
The message could be that interest rates, per se, are not the issue in the mortgage belt. It could, instead, be the LIES about keeping interest rates down, and the uncertainty of what a re-elected coalition government could do, that’s pushing people back to Labor. Smaller mortgages suggest older people, who’ve paid off parts of their mortgage, or bought houses when they are cheaper. So they’re probably more concerned for their children, and very interested in education.
I’d be interested in an age breakdown of the Taverner poll.
Also, housing affordability is a big issue for renters, and they weren’t polled. Renters tend to be younger and earn less, and more likely to vote Labor. So the swing may be even bigger than Taverner suggests.
However, the Galaxy and Newspoll polls don’t support that. All good fun – and we’ll find out the truth in less than a week. I’m off to the supermarket to spend my tax cut in advance.
I agree that Barrie Cassidy is perfectly correct to question Rudd’s no-show. However, I also agree that there’s no gain for Rudd in appearing, as those who watch Insiders will already be committed voters. Uncommitted voters are the ones that need to now be won over to make for an absolute slaughter.
Flash
Looks like the Coalition will be back peddling for the early part of the week, economic management in question that together with the Vaile Rorts Affair and the drunken sailor inflationary spending promises. The nail in the coffin could well be Climate Change following the release of the almost armagetton seriousness nature of the UN report http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/18/2093907.htm amazing that this issue has had such little impact on the elctoate to date, one only has to look at the at the Liberal Peacock brochure vision/policy for climate change brochure released in 1990 to show what a backflip Howard the Sceptic has made during his term in office. Look like more of those dull union bashing adds is the last straw the the Coalition have in this campaign.
So, endorsements so far:
for the Coalition – Adelaide Sunday Mail, Perth Sunday Times, Melbourne’s Sunday Herald
for Labor – Sydney Sun Herald, Sydney Sunday Telegraph
neutral – Melbourne Sunday Age.
Cool.
And about Taverner – they are the worst of the pollsters (okay, maybe not as bad as Morgan, but pretty damn shocking). Utterly unprofessional and sloppy.
Rudd not appearing on Insiders? Good.
It’s payback for giving that desperate biased loony lazy old hack Ackerman so much more oxygen than anyone else.
Ackerman, Milne, Farr, move on.
Sunday Telegraph endorsing Rudd?
They stick their endorsment up their ars*.
SK, the Brisbane Sunday Mail is also endorsing Rudd.
On the polls today, Galaxy and Newspoll were taken last week, so their survey period didn’t include complete reaction to Rudd’s launch. There’s no dates for the Taverner poll, but I’d say it’d be taken late last week, ie after Rudd’s launch. That could explain the difference. The rush to Labor in the betting markets could also be partly due to good Labor internal polling.
SA Seat predictions part 6: The rest
The remaining SA seats have no serious chance of changing hands, in my opinion. Thus I have junked them into this post.
Hindmarsh: A huge labor swing is on the cards here, in no small part due to my superb letterboxing skills (please laugh loudly). Anyone visiting Henley Primary School booth on election day around lunchtime, come and say hi ! Rita Bouras has been a poor liberal candidate, and a large labor swing of 10% is achievable.
Adelaide: As above, liberals don’t seem interested, and a swing of approx 10% is likely.
Port Adelaide: Will be great to see Mark Butler as the labor member, he will be a future minister. Smaller swing here though, too much meat already ! (4% to labor)
Grey: Lots of whispers about this one, but sounds pretty unlikely to me. I can imagine the iron triangle towns swinging hard to labor, but other than that not much joy here for labor. Im guessing a 6% swing to labor, to cut the margin down to single figures.
Mayo: As much as I’d like to see this one go down, it ain’t gonna happen. A solid swing to labor of 4% will be a good effort.
Barker: Patrick Secker has been given a hard time in the media, and will struggle to get over the line here. The nationals candidate has been campaigning well, and may provide an upset here if labor can get boost its primary vote slightly, and leak preferences to the nationals. So, I think the liberals will sneak home , with a bloody nose from the nationals.
re #114. insert “can” between They stick.
Just finished watching Insiders (Qld), lol to ‘jilted lover’ by Jules, Barry really should get over himself. At least we didn’t have to endure the Piers Toad this morning. As always Talking Pictures was the highlight, perhaps we should have an hour on the cartoonists instead.
Mischa gets my vote for the cutest panellist on there, omg she is hot!
Ah well, off to look at the betting sites to see if I can find some value.
Actually with Barker, what I meant to say is that the key is if the nationals can boost their primary vote to above Labor’s, and thus get labor preferences.
Where’s the DAMN Melbounre Sundya Herald sun endorsement, Has it just gone up? Wasted ages looking for it b4….
I think we all know the real reason Pyne is having his wife send out letters. He is hoping that voters will say: “Oh, there is a Mrs Pyne, so it can’t be true what we hear…”.
Patrick Secker would be about the most invisible Liberal backbencher. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was told to retire next year so that Minchin could move to the Reps in a by-election.
[Actually with Barker, what I meant to say is that the key is if the nationals can boost their primary vote to above Labor’s, and thus get labor preferences.]
I missed your assessment of Sturt. What do you think is going to happen there?
We’re in Sydney, a stone’s throw from the Bourke Street Pubic School booth.
After almost no action from any party we are now surrounded by Greens posters and have, at long last received material from Tanya Plibersek.
There is a gut feeling that the seat is not a lay-down misere and could be a surprise.
With the redistibution the Libs have lost their best booths in the North and Labour Rosebery in the South; these were also not the stongest Greens areas. The demogaphic key is in the new residents in the area, principally younger apartment dwellers and moneyed terrace-dwelling boomers with a lefty bias.
The Libs are preferencing Greens ahead of Labour and a 3-4% drift is needed from the majors to Green to cause an upset.
I’m putting my $30 on Maxine and my “free” $100 on Jenny Leong (Greens) at 12 to 1!
Adam 121
A trading in smear is beneath you. Give it up its petty.
The Taverner poll is a great headline number and positive copy for the ALP.
Without a well established baseline reading it not it does not shed much light.
Still the coalition needs to get a clear message going in the next couple of days and news like this makes it hard.
151 hours until polls close (EST)
Dr Adam Carr
What is your tip for the election?
Show’s On: See posts 66, 70, 77, 80, 87 (Sturt), 116 for my SA seat predictions.
Oh Kontrare (says Downer) I think that the tighter it seems the better for the Alp.
Any news on the Morgan Poll that is supposed to be out today? The Friday press release stated that there would be a big telephone National poll out…
How about this to relieve the nervous tedium into the final week: Which network will call the result first, and what time will that be? With Channel 10 stepping up its ‘entertainment’ version of election night, pressure will be strong to call a result – coupled with a strong mindfulness of the US network blunders over the 2000 US presidential “result”.
I say Sky News will be anxious to enhance its brand with an early call (other networks might have to quote them as a way to hedge their bets). So my call is:
Sky News 7.43pm Eastern Daylight Savings Time
Barry Cassidy got his revenge for Rudd’s “jilt” of “Insiders” by having two rabid anti-Labor pundits (rather than his usual one only) to bleat how Rudd was totally gifted the election when the Liberals did not replace Howard with Costello.
Bolt, Farr and Cassidy took up a lot of time with their chagrin that supposedly the media went totally soft on Rudd who has spun his way to victory. Bolt went so far as to state that if Rudd had come on “Insiders” he wouldn’t have got away with doing that there. In other words, this program was going to be a pathetic attempt to ambush Rudd with loaded “gotcha” questions and cheap shots so that these three paragons of journalism could show-off to the whole world how brilliant they are and how unworthy Rudd is to be PM.
Paul Kelly was more more sensible in his report via tv link. On the panel, a woman from “The Age” tried to offer a bit of balance, so Barry restricted her to half the time than each of the blokes.
At least no one tried to pretend that Howard was likely to pull a last week miracle, but if he does, the next “Insiders” panel will be drunk with jubilation and self-congratulations.
If Rudd wins, next Sunday’s program will be another wake like today, and later on his first appearance on “Insiders” will be an all-out attack on his personal credibility and Labor’s mandate to govern the country.
[November 18th, 2007 at 11:27 am
Show’s On: See posts 66, 70, 77, 80, 87 (Sturt), 116 for my SA seat predictions.]
Thanks!
It was hilarious to watch the poor bruised egos on the Insiders bewailing Rudd’s non-appearance. Aren’t journalists important any more? The injustice!
Hmm… let’s look at it from Rudd’s point of view:
Insiders:
Not in the Top 50 of shows watched in Ratings Week ending 3 November, not in the top 20 of Shows watched on Sunday in Ratings Week 45 (last week). More people watch Compass (good show BTW but never going to be a top rater).
So less than 600,000 viewers. Political tragics and (I assume) an older demographic. Also, the 2005 Morgan poll (the most recent I can find) shows that the Insiders audience is more polarised: a higher proportion of Labor voters than other current affairs programs (just pipped Lateline for that). Preaching to the converted. High risk, low reward.
Rove:
1.2 Million viewers. Key youth demographic. Probably not as attuned to current affairs as the typical Insiders viewer – swinging voters. Lock them in in a reasonably soft interview (like Howard being interviewed by Alan Jones, really: “So Mr Howard, just why are you the best PM Australia’s ever had?”).
Yes, he could have done both, but don’t these people get it: he wants to win the bl**dy election, not win a ‘Journalists Friend’ award. Why risk it now going into the last week. Plenty of time to go him after next Saturday (regardless of the outcome).
Have to say Rudd should have appeared on Insiders at some stage through the campaign. He’s been on Sunday with the Sphere of Influence, and I couldn’t see Baz (former Hawke Pres Secretary) giving him too hard a time tbh.
I’m just being selfish coz I watch it of course.
Most sensible I’ve ever heard Bolt – seems resigned to it all; Farr is too busy thinking of one-liners to be too cogent on that show, but I don’t mind him too much – his Tele blogs are some of the less partisan (from the journo at least); and Misha was great and, frankly delicious as well.
Baz was pouting, but I reckon he wouldn’t have slaughtered Rudd. Really, I dunno why he didn’t go on. He’s stayed on message everywhere else, surely he could have on Insiders as well.
@130
Daivd Reilly of Channel 7 wont call it until at least a week after Howard concedes, citing a few outlying booths that might dramatically give voice to the silent majority and their support for honest john.
What a joke that guy is.
Jenn Leong is very impressive – we’re in Lizzy Bay, just outside Sydney (and in the new Wentworth).
I think Tanya is a very poor performer in terms of representing her constituency, and I hope she loses her seat. She certainly deserves to.
Cleobasset. If the polls have shown anything this year it’s that the Greens won’t win a HoR seat. The major party primaries are just too high IMHO.
Insiders was talking about the big test for Rudd being after he wins balancing IR with economic conservatism. What a joke? Maybe it’s just me, but who gives if Rudd is seen to be economically responsible? He will have 3 years to work out how to spin his performance in a favourble light. The key is to do whatever it takes to boot out Superman, and he has performed beautifully.
Anybody who doesn’t support the rigourous scrutiny of any top political contenter by all media, especially hard-core political TV shows, should go live in Russia. Putin has taken that line of thinking to its logical extension.
Hello punters!
I just got back from a small street corner meeting with Nicole Cornes (Boothby). I went to see what she was made of and came away quite impressed. She will now get my No 1 vote as opposed to a second preference to the Independent.
Mike Rann turned up for it and was quite open and personable.
He said “We win Boothby – we win government”
Flash Says:
November 18th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Anybody who doesn’t support the rigourous scrutiny
The only person who thinks Rudd would have gotten rigourous scrutiny this morning is you and Barry Cassidy.
When was the last time Cassidy got any news except just now for being a winger!!
Flash
There’s a bit of a difference between controlling the media and not appearing on a low rating news program.
130: I think Possum wins doesn’t he, -6 months and with 0.0% of the vote counted 🙂
This is the most important week of Rudd’s life thus far. Every campaigning moment is precious. Not only would he be preaching to the converted (or unconvertible) by appearing on Insiders, but he needs every moment available between now and Saturday to campaign where he can make a positive impact on the result. Rove is a must show because that demographic is a large part of the reason for Labor’s standing in the polls.
Forget about the decision to not appear on Insiders. It was absolutely the right choice. Moreover the negative publicity about not appearing will be limited to those who normally watch Insiders, who as mentioned above don’t really matter at this stage anyway.
My last comment on the petulance of Cassidy this morning.
In his five (that’s right 5) years as Bob Hawke’s Press Sec., Cassidy manouvered Bob around a number of interviews and articles which he knew could only have been damaging. He got gazzumped this morning and he know’s it.
Speaking of scrutiny, where’s Costello disappeared to lately……..Gaawwnn.
Agreed Jon. I was being a bit provocative of course. However, you have to wonder, if this is Rudd’s approach during an election campaign, what’s he going to be like in government? Is he planning a re-run of New Labour’s spinning-out-of-control approach under Alistair Campbell in Britain, however discredited that has become now? There is every indication he will.
re:Insiders.
Journalists need to learn that if they provide a consistently biased show, and let’s be frank, anything with both bolt and ackerman on it invariably is, is not worthy of comment. I think it would send a very important message to the likes of Rupert Murdoch, that HE doesn’t define the political agenda in Australia, the politicians do. That’s why we have an opposition.
It’s the way to solve bias in a much better way, instead of things like stacking the ABC board with right-wing hacks, or pulling video feeds because some organization would like to use a different method of analysis.
Don’t like right-wing hacks deliberately mis-representing the truth? Starve them of any direct interviews. Don’t answer any direct question from them. They’ll change their ways, or they might as move into pure gossip.
My Godmother was a primary school headmistress. She used to insist that I improve my handwriting (I never did)! I love her dearly.
Julia Gillard reminds me of her!
Go Kevin07 team..Go the education revolution.. and John Howard. just GO!
Flash
Provocative! Who would dare do that on this site!
I really do think it is a symptom of the ‘low risk’ determination-to-win strategy. A journo’s bruised ego can be fixed with an ‘exclusive’ after the poll is won 🙂
It’ll all settle down to normal after the vote.