The Sunday Examiner reports that Tasmanian polling agency EMRS has conducted a second survey of the state’s five electorates in successive weeks. Both have had Labor on course to win all five seats, but the newer poll has the narrowest margin in Bass rather than Braddon. The Examiner article doesn’t have much to say about the results in electorates other than Bass, where Labor leads 52-48. This presumably follows the EMRS usual format of 200 respondents in each seat.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/opinion/story/0,22049,22774600-5001031,00.html
Sunday Telegraph backs Labor!
Piers is busy packing his bags for a 3year holiday in Provence. Milne has booked an extreme makeover for Monday week.
Thanks Anthony L. That posting is worth its weight in gold!
Too few respondents, too much MoE in this one. Still, it is reasonably consistent with past reports, so suppose that that is something. I think that the Mersey Hospital takeover has boiled down to something of a fiasco, which will not have helpled Team C.
It’s consistent with what is believed,a clean sweep to the ALP
The poll also shows Labor ahead in Braddon, 56-44.
Primary: Labor 40, Liberal 37, Greens 9.
Bass Primary: Labor 40, Liberal 38, Greens 18.
Seems a little strange to only get 52-48 in Bass on those primaries. I’d put that at at least 55-45.
yeah those primaries look like they would deliver decisive wins, as opposed to the close TPP. Do they base that on how respondants say they will vote, or base it on past preference flows?
Re the Sunday Telegraph “Endorsement”.. gee, the Tories do have a “führer” wish don’t they? They long for a dominatrix.. you can see why Dolly in fishnets appeals to them.
I would expect that the Greens’ commitment to go ‘open ticket’ rather than direct prefs to the ALP alone will muddy the waters somewhat, especially in Bass.
Centrebet has removed its tassie clean sweep odds. It now has Braddon at 1.10 while Bass remains steady at 1.17. Like others here I reckon Bass will enjoy a higher swing than Braddon. The small sample size means this poll is useless other than to confirm that the swing is to the ALP.
[EMRS managing director Tony Hocking attributed the strong Green support to controversy surrounding Gunns’ pulp mill in the Tamar Valley.
“You would be inclined to say the pulp mill has something to do with it. The Greens are performing better than they did in the federal election last time,” he said.]
LOL. Incisive, Tony! Over 10,000 people at the anti-mill rally yesterday might have been a clue. I’ve read that Bass is likely to be the first seat called.
Exciting times.
I visited Bass recently and did not find one person I talked to in Launceston who supported the pulp mill. Different story in Flinders Island and towns to the east like Scottsdale where the good Liberal voters there couldn’t really care less about he mill. That’s a Lonny problem.