Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders

The Sunday Fairfax papers (see here and here) carry a Taverner poll covering mortgage holders only from Sydney and Melbourne, showing a 57-43 lead to Labor. There was apparently a similar poll published during the 2004 campaign which had the Coalition leading 54-46 among this group, but I can’t find any record of it. Seats in which this looks like bad news for the Coalition include La Trobe, McMillan, Corangamite, Deakin and McEwen in and around Melbourne, and Lindsay, Parramatta, Dobell, Robertson and Macarthur in the Sydney area.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “Taverner: Labor leads among mortgage holders”

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  2. Coming from Melbourne I think there is definitely a swing to Labor but I’d be surprised if it meant more than 2 seats changing hands in Victoria. Still any gain in Victoria would be a bonus for Labor.

  3. TO THOMAS BOWIE: the Galaxy Poll of 4,000 voters (800 per 4 seat State) was conducted per your attachment on the evenings of the 10th to the 15th November
    ie last Saturday night to last Thursday night. In between both Party’s made their Launchs. WOULD GALAXY’s POLLING PER SEAT OVER EACH OF THE 5 NIGHTS BEEN 40 VOTERS PER SEAT EVERY SINGLE NIGHT (TO MAKE UP THE 200 per seat per state ie 800 per state) ?????? if not the polling would be affected by when during the launchs the phone calls were made

  7. William, 57 43 sits well with the last 12 months national polling and possum’s playthings; a striking turnaround from 04. The deadly diamond at the coalface methinks. Would like to see more detail but I think this may play outside Vic & NSW equally well.

  8. CONFUSED !!! Galaxy’s Poll mathematically equals a 2 PP of 50.8% Labor & 49.2% for Liberals. Each state had 800 polled & the results FOR LABOR 2 PP PER STATE were :
    WA 50%
    NSW 53%
    Vic 49%
    Q’ld 51%
    SA 51%
    This works out at 2032 actual 2 PP votes to labor out of the 4,000
    which equals 50.8% 2 PP

    WHERE is Labor’s 2PP of 54% per Nielsen and 54% per Newspoll
    In safe Labor seats ?????

  9. Aah, 6.5 sleeps to go! 🙂

    Goodbye Peter Costello!!!!

    I can’t wait!

    if the swing is 8% in Vic, then you’d throw in Gippsland to the 5 you mention. 8.8% is the magic number that sends Peter Costello into consultancy.

    Game on baby!

  10. @9
    I’m in Higgins and haven’t heard a word from ALP candidate or received anything in the post.
    William
    The question posed @ 1 was trying to work out if WA’s mortgage belt was reflecting any semblance of the same swing that is going on in Sydney and Melbourne. If so did the recent Wespoll account for it?

  11. Up very early in Sydney to listen to a sporting event in the USA (Saturday daytime in their location) and reading the political news here. The Age is my homepage and boy was that article a sight to see first thing this morning 🙂 🙂

    Kind of makes it silly the other poll yesterday that was predicting no seats changing hands in VIC at all 🙂

    Bring it on, we’ve been waiting for this moment since 1996 🙂

  14. 10 – Gecko.

    I’m not a big believer in the impact of big marginal seats campaigns. Have you got much liberal stuff either?

    When you run a big coordinated presidential campaign, local issues take on decreasing relevance.

    The demographics of Melbourne are changing. I reckon the swing in Higgins (& Kooyong and Goldstein) will be more than the state average. When the state average is 7%, that makes all 3 of these seats very vulnerable.

  15. OldTmeHack @14

    Yep I’ve got lots from Costello. I even get letters from him throughout the year. But nothing from Labor (maybe they know how I vote!). I tried to offer my services to hand out stuff but didn’t get a reply. (??)

    8.3 is a big ask in this seat… but I remain as optimistic as I can.

  16. The Sunday Age – “The Sunday Age does not see enough differences between the Coalition and Labor to urge readers to vote for one over the other”
    Deserve it or not, Howard faces a losing battle with Me Too

    Sunday Telegraph – “The Sunday Telegraph advocates a vote for Labor” –
    Why Kevin deserves a chance

    The Sunday Mail (SA) – “The Sunday Mail believes the Coalition is best placed to govern Australia for the next three years.”
    Coalition best placed to govern

    The Sunday Times – “The Sunday Times believes change for change sake is simply not an adequate trigger to throw out a Coalition Government”
    No valid reason to throw out Coalition

    The others don’t seem to have their editorials up yet.

  20. James @ 16,

    It really says heaps that out of those endorsements, that the one which seems to speak loudest with the “Vote Rudd” voice is the DT. Seeing that, you can be assured that Bennelong will GO and that endorsement, alone, is probably worth a % point or two to Mike Bailey’s chances.

    Surprised to see the Sunday Age endorsed no one 🙁

  22. #19, found them on factivia:

    Sunday Mail (QLD) – Time to consider new leadership
    “There is undoubtedly a mood for national renewal and there is a need for national renewal. Mr Rudd has demonstrated he has the potential to undertake that task effectively.”

    Sunday Herald Sun – It’s time, but not for Labor
    “IT IS time. Not to change governments, but to resist temptation. It is time to acknowledge that the Coalition is the safe bet in a political contest in which the new, despite its superficial allure, offers less than the familiar.”

  24. So of the News Ltd “published” papers we have 2 for (NSW & Qld) and 2 against (Vic & Adelaide). Typical of you damn mexicans 🙂

  25. 24,

    Probablly reflecting the local readers which tells me that while the swing is ON nationwide that it is REALLY on in QLD and NSW. Watch those two states deliver most of the seats Rudd needs 😉 …….

  26. Good news for this poll, which would have been taken after BOTH campaign launches; this wasn’t the case with either the Newspoll or Galaxy marginal seats polling. Also good that both the Tele and the Courier Mail are endorsing Rudd. Can’t imagine why the stupid Age isn’t.

    On the Galaxy results, for Qld they once again include Longman, where Mal Brough is the local member, and probably has a strong following. All other polling in Qld, both statewide and in Newspoll’s marginal seats, is showing a 9% or so swing to Labor. Longman probably won’t fall, but plenty of other seats will, including some very safe looking ones.

  27. My God! With all the near-daily poll excitement I’d forgotten about Taverner!

    Let It End is probably right about its reliability, but that considered it still confirms the general trend. The marginals are heavily Labor’s way. There ain’t gonna be no desperation comeback in the marginals.

    I wouldn’t hold my breath on Costello losing, since it’s doubtful the swing is uniform. But taking into account Mega George’s Newspoll demographic analysis, Uncle Buck is in big trouble in North Sydney, as is Johnson in Ryan, because of the high proportion of under 34 voters. And Maxine’s looking pretty good in Bennelong.

    For Glen’s sake, I’m keeping the hubris in check. But it’s getting harder by the day. Joy, oh joy!

  30. That is one massive bet. This individual is pretty confident. Wouldn’t it be great if we knew who it was (ie. an insider).

  31. “Next Sunday, the Liberals’ highest office holder will be the Brisbane mayor.”

    Comment by Koutsoukis in “The Age”…love it!

  32. Generic Person is right. The Libs never get a fair go because all the media is prejudiced against them. This trend of journalists stating the facts and arguing a well thought out opinion is typical of what will happen under Rudd’s “Education Revolution”.

    Well informed opinion is the anithesis of what the Libs stand for and must be stamped out as soon as possible.

  33. Not surprised Yodelaide Sunday Mail not endorsing Kevin.You only have to check out there phone polls to work out who they bat for.Pricks

  34. Sunday Mail (SA) editorial spouted some desperate tripe about how Labor’s Education Revolution should have happened in the Keating years. At a glance, most other stories were pro Labor which made the endorsement seem out of step.

  35. Not to worry Growler – fo uninformed opinion there’s always going to be Dennis and the Malignant Dwarf. Not to mention the entire editorial cabal over at the GG.

  39. yes, Judy, I did, but we have 2 computers in this house and at the moment, I can only read mail on one of them. [Problem reading mail from Yahoo on the computer I use most often and Thunderbird on that computer is set to my husband’s mail]. Might be awhile before I can get back to you, time share with the kids and husband on the computers 😉 …….

  40. 38 judy- I suspect Pyne’s wife will receive plenty of advice of a personal nature about her devotion to her husband being misplaced. It really is pathetic and smacks of panic. The voters don’t like panic.

  41. Just watching now on Sky’s election channel Rudd’s presser from yesterday and a journo asked if Insiders Brarry Cassidy was just being a sook about Rudd not appearing. Wonder if that bit of film will appear on the insiders today ?

    If Insiders spends a lot of time about Rudd not appearing on there last show before the election and not the election itself they will have jumped the shark.

    Rudd just said he is going to spend the next week trying to reach those Australians who don’t watch Insiders HA

  42. ‘Rudd just said he is going to spend the next week trying to reach those Australians who don’t watch Insiders HA’

    That is too funny.

  45. Intersting bit from The Age
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/press-ganged-into-that-sinking-feeling/2007/11/17/1194767024685.html

    “WHEN things aren’t going your way … seems everyone knows it. Prime Minister John Howard and Kevin Rudd are both booked in to address the National Press Club — Rudd on Wednesday and Howard on Thursday. While tickets for the Rudd address are in huge demand from press club members and corporate partners, word out of the press club is that there is far less interest in going to see Howard. Another bad omen for the Libs.”

  46. Jason Koutsoukis is alright. He just needs guidance.

    Remember, he was the official mouthpiece of the Liberal Insiders & Master Strategists at the beginning of the year. It was through him we saw the Libs’ true heart of darkness: Rudd on a slab, Gillard scandals exposed… a blow by blow of what the Libs were going to do to Labor and when they were going to do it.

    Lately he’s gone the other way, towards Labor. Now he’s openly antagonistic to his former “Lib Insider” pals, thoroughly rubbishing them in his “Gillard Dirt File” column a month or two ago.

    Hey, let’s face it, being on Labor’s side is not only reasonable on the facts, and what’s expected of a Greek boy from Melbourne, but it doesn’t hurt to be on the winning side if you ever want to get out of day to day journalism, either.

    Jason’s a bit of a cork on the water. Rest assured, if Labor was losing he’d be a lot less partisan sounding than he is now. He wears his big Greek heart on his sleeve. It’s the way he’s made. He can’t help that.

  47. That is too funny Julie – my sister rang me yesterday and told me about the letter (she lives in Sturt). Said it solidified her vote for Mia Handshin.

  48. I wish Hyacinth would write a letter to women in Bennelong re subject of housing and employment.

    Dear Elector

    I understand what it means when the Centrelink rent assistance cuts out when you sign up to that wonderful AWA that my husband arranged for you……

    John and I understand what it means being forced to find other work and to leave the house we love, in our case our “palace” at Kirribilli is under threat because of that nasty Mr Rudd who is determined to evict us and cancel our free $30,000 wine and beverages allowance. How dare he do that to Australia’s First Lady!!!

    What a rotter that Mr Rudd is. He doesn’t understand John’s craving for power so that he, and he alone, can help you poor poor women out there with AWAs; giving you the mandatory chance to work when your youngest child turns 6 and suchlike. After all, you don’t want to hang around the house all day with a bunch of screaming snotty nosed kids do you? Much better to go to work and spend all that money on child care payments isn’t it?…..

  50. William,
    maybe Thomas Bowie is a Ziggy Stardust sort of thing. Ground control to Major Tom. Take your protein polls and put your helmet on …

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