Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,088 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  4. It’s all irrelevant anyhow because they’d just keep trying older people until they got some. From my experience older people don’t hang up on tele-marketers. They stay on the line because they want someone to talk to.

  5. God Cameron is a hedger “The CHANCES are that Labor MAY get over the line.”

    [Any links to the Galaxy marginals poll? Or was it Lateline mention only?

    53-47 in marginals is huge. Suggests to me 54 may be on nationally.

    Though Im sticking with 53.5 and 85 seats.]

    Not released till Sunday.

  6. I know nothing of Mia Handshin’s personal life.

    I have bet Paul Kavanagh that no Democrat candidate anywhere will get 5% of the vote. If the Libs are cactus, the Dems are whatever comes after cactus. Patterson’s curse? Pond scum?

  7. 839 Glen, this from 5 hours ago:

    Grog Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
    And now the Libs are creating b*llsh*t about the charter of budget “honesty”, saying the ALP has missed the deadline:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093475.htm

    hmmm lets have a look at the charter:
    SECT 29 Requests for costing of election commitments
    (1) During the caretaker period for a general election:

    (a) the Prime Minister may request the responsible Secretaries to prepare costings of publicly announced Government policies; and

    (b) the Leader of the Opposition may, subject to subclause (4), request the responsible Secretaries to prepare costings of publicly announced Opposition policies.

    (2) A request is to:
    (a) be in writing; and
    (b) outline fully the policy to be costed, giving relevant details; and
    (c) state the purpose or intention of the policy.

    (3) A request by the Prime Minister is to be given to the responsible Secretaries.

    (4) A request by the Leader of the Opposition is to be given to the Prime Minister, who may then agree to refer it to the responsible Secretaries. The responsible Secretaries are not obliged or authorised to take any action in relation to the request unless the Prime Minister has referred the request to them.
    (5) The Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition may, at any time, withdraw a request that he or she has made. A withdrawal by the Prime Minister is to be by notice in writing given to the responsible Secretaries. A withdrawal by the Leader of the Opposition is to be by notice in writing given to the Prime Minister, who is to notify the responsible Secretaries of the withdrawal.

    Anyone see any mention of deadlines?

    And don’t you love how the ALP has to give it to the PM? What a crock.

    http://scaleplus.law.gov.au/html/pasteact/2/3115/0/PA000460.htm

  14. Mad Cow, I had a look at the betting markets.

    Patterson:
    Baldwin 1.30
    Arneman: 3.00

    Robertson is the one that puzzles me! I can’t for the life of me see how Belinda Neale can be favourite to win that seat. Jim Lloyd would have the same advantages of incumbancy and money as Baldwin. Neale is a proven loser and dud campaigner. There must be some local issue in Robertson working against Jim Lloyd.

  18. HH,

    Robertson now more or less encompasses the outer Northern suburbs of Sydney (i.e. the lower Central Coast).

    As a result, Workchoices will bite more there and in Dobell than in semi-rural Paterson. There’s probably more migrants or first home buyers who live in Robertson than in Paterson.

  21. [Can someone explain to me (very slowly) why 53-47 and a 42 primary is good?]

    Cos “Liberal marginals” mean seats where the coalition is _on average_ 53 – 47 AHEAD. Wher as this poll has Labor 53 – 47 AHEAD which is a huge turn around.

  22. 845, If past experience is any guide the Greens rely heavily on people not engaging until the last week and make sure they letter bomb the red-green marginals in the last week.

  25. Swing Lowe @ 837

    LOL, Re-read my first post and agree wholeheartedly with my second, I must be sobering up.

    And don’t worry Mad Cow, I have faith that BB will fall at the hurdle. Incumbency only counts for so much. The swings in the new suburbs around Thornton (where mortgage levels are high) to BB in the last election are likely to be turned around this time. Not sure if Jim will get across the line but it will be closer than the Newie Herald suggested – JA has firmed a little in the betting odds as well.

    Nite all.

  27. Am I remembering correctly here? Can anyone else remember Michael Kroger on Lateline last Friday nite saying that the second last week of the campaign was THE most important week or all and would decide the election?

    I ask because on ‘The World Today’ on RN this arvo he stated that he was “not concerned about this week’s polls as really the FINAL week was the most important of the campaign”.

  28. Well the poll is only significant in that is has us ahead on primaries though narrowly and anyway if the Greens polls 11% with a Labor vote in the high 30% we’d struggle. Nevertheless a good poll is better than a bad poll still 53-47 is a big lead for Labor.

    Nevertheless it is good news for Malcolm Turnbull and Mal Brough as they could hang on should the tories lose according to these figures.

  30. I’m surprised no-one here has drawn a trend line through the last two Morgan FTF results. 62% Labor last Friday, 56.5% today: that 5.5% loss in a week shows that by next Friday it will be 51-49! Never fear, the Howard strategy is on course for a comfortable win….. 😉 Hyacinth shall have her Christmas at Kirribilli.

  31. SL, Paterson *isnt* semi rural. Yes it does have some rural booths but the bulk of the population is in urbanised. And the town of Medowie (pop 10k or thereabouts) that swung so heavily to Baldwin last time, has some of the more expensive mortgages outside of Sydney. Then we have a large service industry, and who suffers the worst under workchoices…

  32. Maybe Labor shouldnt have run a possible local in Paterson, they could have flown someone up from Melbourne like Combet to rule the locals?

  33. Thanks guys, interesting discussion!
    Didn’t John Della Vosca say earlier this week that N.S.W is very tight, and Lindsay is the only seat they have in the bag so far?

  34. Yeah, it’s an odd poll Glen. Will be interesting to see which seats it did – wouldn’t be surprised if Wentworth was one (plus Bass and the other one down there – Braddon??)

    BUt 11% for the Greens? – They only got 9% last time in Tasmania!

  37. Have no doubt about it, WorkChoices was the beginning of the end for Howard. The ACTU analysis is that there were enough union members in marginal seats that voted Coalition in 2004 that, if they changed their vote this election, the 16 required seats would be won. And remember, these union members voted in elections, run by the electoral commission, for the “Union Bosses”Howard likes to malign so much.

    By spending the whole campaign bagging “Union Bosses” Howard simply alienates those union members further. Brilliant!

  39. Hey Gaz (#877) I guess Mr Kroger always believes the next week is the most important week of the campaign, just as John Howard has realised ever since mid-year that the best week to have called the election was last week!

  42. Yeah, actually, thinking about those numbers – whats the point of pre-releasing figures on an unnamed subset of ‘marginals’?

    Unless its the 15 most marginal – its not much use otherwise. Guess we’ll have to wait till Sunday.

  43. Well know how much the punters regard this as a “narrowing” by watching the betting markets move next week. If they move rapidly back to the Coalition (remember, the big bets will come next week), then we know that the ALP may struggle to cross the line. I hope that a decisive 56 or 57 TPP newspoll next week puts this to rest.

  44. 889 – well put!

    Can we make a drinking game that consists of having a drink everytime a commentator mentions that 20-25% of the voters only make up their minds in the last week?

  45. mad cow,

    My mistake – I forgot that Maitland was part of Paterson. But you have to admit the Gloucester and Forster areas are semi-rural?

    HH,

    That seems a bit odd, as the betting markets extremely high probabilities of Labor gains in Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Lindsay and Parramatta.

    And Glen,

    I would have to admit I wouldn’t be too unhappy if either Turnbull or Brough were returned (both of them seem likely to win now anyway…). I would gladly exchange Turnbull if a right-wing hack like Dana Vale could lose her seat. Alas, I doubt that will happen though…

  46. Lateline.

    Rod being very cautious, for sure.

    But clearly knows the deal. Kevin. Sensible, smart. Reading the popular mood.

    To my mind, Rudd gets it, Rod gets it, Howard hoofs it.

  47. sinic supposedly they’ve already starting rapidly heading back to the Coalition (according to a comment on the other thread)

  48. WorkersVote,

    Unions represent about 1.8 million people. The average turnout in a union ballot is about 20%, 360,000 people who are the rusted on Labor/Green/Trot types by and large.

    Even if you apply the Menzies dictum that the Libs need 30% of the union vote, its a maximum of 540,000 people a lot of whom do actually vote Liberal.

  49. Rudd said again today winning 16 seats will be difficult!
    I suspect the Coalition has a lot more money than Labor to spend in the marginals.
    The anti-Union ads could be biting!
    Howard’s pledges on Monday could have swayed some people back into the Liberal camp
    Labor ought to remember what happened to Neil Kinnock: don’t declare victory a week early!

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