Labor Cowan ads

With a little bit of Stirling thrown in. These two 30-second spots went to air on tonight’s Perth edition of the Channel Nine News, and similar ads have presumably been tailored for other markets. It might be tempting to view the ads as an indicator of the electoral sensitivity of Stirling and Cowan, but it’s more likely a product of these candidates’ value in dispelling perceptions of Labor as dominated by unionists. Labor’s other main marginal seat candidate, former Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union official Sharryn Jackson in Hasluck, doesn’t get a guernsey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

90 comments on “Labor Cowan ads”

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  1. The high Green primary could indicate an assumption by people that the ALP will win, so they’re going first to the Greens and then to the ALP. (Just a biased guess)

  2. Steve @50 Isn’t The Australian winning the NEWS(Ltd)Paper of the Year Award a bit like the World Series of Baseball?

    i.e. it would be a bit more credible if you invited non-News Ltd papers (countries in the case of the World Series) to participate?

  3. Have to wonder if Kevin Rudd’s presence in WA at this stage of the campaign will make a difference. He seemed to get a reasonable press from the normally tory media. Only news from Kalgoorlie, apart from Shelley Archer and Kevin Reynolds’ resignations from the ALP, is that someone keeps pinching Barry Haase’s campaign trailer. Some joyride!
    ‘Labor View from Broome’

  4. I’ll take 53/47 in the marginals form Galaxy any day.

    Galaxy seems to be the most “coalition friendly” of the major polls. Not saying they are actively biased, just always seem to give the best results for the forces of evil and darkness in the same way that Morgan seems to give the best results for the ALP.

    Also, if its a smaller swing than the state breakdowns are showing in the marginals, then its likely a bigger swing than the state breakdowns are showing is happening in the LNP safe seats. Not good news for the Rattus Crew methinks..

    Also, if they are showing Greens on 11% primary in the seats polled then with most of that going to the ALP all is well with the world. 11% seems pretty high though??

  5. Candidate dogged by past.

    AN independent candidate running for the federal seat of Bendigo has admitted to drug and theft convictions.

    Bendigo student Adam Veitch, 31, said his drug-taking days were behind him and he was now trying to turn his past into a positive.

    Mr Veitch was found guilty of possessing ecstasy and amphetamines and two counts of theft in the Bendigo Magistrates Court in 2004 and served a two-month sentence in the form of an intensive corrections order.,23599,22770315-29277,00.html

  6. I got an email from today sending me to a site which has a quiz which is supposed to inform me about how I should vote (methinks they are pushing the online democracy a bit far with this).

    Its supposed to take 3 minutes but is incredibly slow and took more like 45 minutes. You get your very own personalised how to vote card which is pretty cool I guess.

  7. Frank and Blind Dave or other Sandgropers may be able to answer this: the WA polling info over here is pretty scanty. I noticed in the GG, the accumulated Newspoll reading was showing ALP-Lib 50:50 2pp. How accurate is that?

    Shanas (of course) is not only referring to WA as the coalition’s best state (it is the only one showing Howard ahead of Rudd as ppm), but that it will record “no change”. 50:50 if reliable would represent a big swing towards Labor and put quite a few Lib WA seats at risk.

    Any ideas?

  8. What the Papers Say. Delroy, ABC.

    Extended chat with Laura Tingle, the Fin.

    Game, set, match. Wrap comment. Laura. ‘At this stage, Kevin Rudd will be PM in a week’.

    The GG.

    Labor extends lead.

    Kevin Andrews orders urgent review of all 450 in immigration detention.

    13 released thus far.

  9. What do we know of Galaxy’s previous marginal polling? What seats do they actually poll? All Coalition marginals? or a mix of Coalition and Labor?

  10. Mate of mine is active in the ALP in Canning in W.A. They have realistic hopes of ousting Randal.

    Brand is apparently a worry, but no-one is panicking.

  11. Stephen Hill,

    Are the first figures primary and the 2nd 2PP ?

    If so, Burkegate 2 getting 2 lib scalps and the resignation of Big Kev and Mrs Kev may have had a good bearing for the ALP.

  12. Probably one of Westpoll’s sample size 400 polls – i.e. MOE 5%ish. Still, the 5% swing from the last poll seems odd. Last one probably overstated Labor, this one probably overstates Coalition.

  13. Antony (47), I think the low minor party vote is more credible. I agree it is not like the polarising elections, I think it is more that Rudd has tapped into themes that the minor parties relied on. Not just the environment with climate change, but also against the old Labor/Liberal divide that would drive people to the minor parties. I think Rudd is bleeding them dry (and also why Labor’s primary has improved so well).

    Hasn’t there also been some discrepancy between what the national polls are showing in the marginals and what the individual seats are finding?

    By the way, is your ‘Howard battler’ piece you did a few years ago publicly available?

  14. Muzzle tightened on candidates

    LABOR candidates are receiving daily missives from party headquarters telling them what, and what not, to say.

    A series of e-mails obtained by The Courier-Mail reveals the extent of the gag placed on candidates by Labor’s central campaign team as it closes on what polling suggests will be a landslide victory next weekend.

    The candidates are being warned against speaking out on any issue without approval.,23739,22771878-952,00.html

  15. 67- Don

    50/50 would mean WA is swinging more than NSW

    That would have ALP confident of a two seat gain.

    I would say ALP is as likely to pick up Canning as Lose Cowan and Kalgorlie is an unknown.

    Does that help?

  16. I’m voting for…?

    A BUNCH of Queenslanders who each stand to collect up to $1 million from the public purse in their next job are hardly recognisable to the person in the street.

    The Courier-Mail took photos of the main contenders for the state’s six Senate berths being decided in next Saturday’s election.

    Not one of the four certainties – Labor’s John Hogg and Claire Moore and the Liberals’ Ian Macdonald and Sue Boyce – were recognised by any of the shoppers quizzed.,23739,22771883-5013650,00.html

  17. I wish I didn’t recognise Sue Boyce or Ian MacDonald.

    Claire Moore is actually very eloquent and John Hogg will probably make a good President (unless what I heard about Marshall ends up being true!).

  18. Gasp, William.

    Unionists! Tube stuff.

    Fortunate I don’t have broadband.

    Could have barely slept, otherwise.

    Night, night.

    Thanks for today.

  19. SkyNews has the poll, it has limited info on its site

    52:48 to the Libs on 2PP, it claims this is a ten point swing from 53:47 Lab on 2PP polled a month ago. Be interesting to know a) the MoE, and b) when the polling was down, as it will be interesting to opine whether the Archer and Reynold resignations are a plus or minus for Labor. I agree with Samuel K, Westpoll is famously volatile.

  20. This is from

    “The Coalition has had a much needed boost in the latest Westpoll results, which show a major rise in the government’s support in Western Australia.

    The poll, to be published in The West Australian newspaper shows the government gaining 10 points on Labor on a two party preferred basis.

    Westpoll shows the coalition ahead of the ALP 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two party preferred basis, which is a huge swing from last month when Labor led the coalition 53-47.

    The poll also shows a rise in the Prime Minister’s personal popularity, with Mr Howard winning the preferred Prime Minister vote for the first time since July.

    Mr Howard scored 49 per cent to Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s 41 per cent.

    The Liberals have also gained ground in the primary votes, attracting 47 per cent of the vote, which is up from 43 per cent in October.

    Labor dropped 8 points to 38 per cent of the primary vote.

    The results are not all good for the coalition though, with the poll showing that they stand to lose the seats of Stirling and Hasluck to Labor in the election.”

    38 percent primary vote sounds a bit overstaked, I wonder how far ahead Labor are in Stirling and Hasluck, at 48:52, they might have a point of two buffer.

  21. The soon to be senior liberal in Australia spits dummy big time. Gridlock Campbell might have to lift his game if he wants to get reelected in March.

    “I know which political party organised the moratorium marches, were responsible for throwing paint on battalion soldiers marching through the streets of our capital cities, who threw eggs at them, called them ‘baby killers’ – it was the Australian Labor Party and their socialist alliance type fellow preachers,” he said.

    Labor councillor for Marchant ward Faith Hopkins said that as the wife of a Vietnam veteran, she was extremely disappointed in Cr Newman’s comments.

    “I find it most inappropriate that the Lord Mayor of a city of the status of Brisbane would lower and politicise the lives and the families of people who have been involved with war, very personally affected by war, and he has no more respect than to try to make a political point in a chamber that is here to look after the people of Brisbane,” she said.

    RSL Queensland president Doug Formby said veterans welcomed and appreciated the attendance of representatives from the major political parties at Remembrance Day.,23739,22771554-3102,00.html

  22. That should read “38% Labor primary vote sounds a bit understaked,” wouldn’t that translate into something like a 55:45 to the Libs in 2PP, would labor gain 10% from others,

  23. Looks like Howard is starting to give out messages about a big change next week. I’d have preferred him to fight till the end but he seems to be throwing the towel in. I’m sure the electorate will oblige him and send him a tough and perhaps unpopular message.

    In the near future, more “tough and perhaps unpopular” decisions would be required to keep the country strong and growing, he said.,23739,22772377-953,00.html

  24. If this is how badly the Howard government manages the economy in the good times, imagine how they’ll do in the bad times!

    1 more week.

  25. Virginia Trioli is so very biased on Lateline.

    John Hewson and Rod Cameron are also, but they are openly biased, and support their arguments with at least a little logic. Hewson is such a cynic, poor guy. I really feel sorry for him – he probably should have won in ’93.

  26. Piping Shrike, I’m still suspicious that 10% primary vote will be a bit low. That would be the lowest minor party vote since 1987, and the number of candidates on ballot papers has doubled since then. I’m just expecting the primary votes for the major parties might be a bit lower than reported in the polls, though the two-party preferred will end up the same.

    However, the point I was making was that it if it is low, I very much doubt it would be higher in the marginal seats. Normally the minor party vote gets squeezed in marginal seats. And with so many marginal seats in outer suburban areas where the Greens traditionally poll poorly, an 11% Green poll in marginals sounds odd. But I suppose we will have to await the detail of this Galaxy poll.

    My article on ‘the battlers’ was in AQ, Sep-Oct 1997. It was about confusion between class analysis and voting behaviour and the marketing term ‘battler’.

  27. Rod Cameron on LL says Labor will easily win 12 seats but a big leap to win the next 12, will be very close etc. Not sure if he is really so pessimistic, or deliberately down playing Labor’s chance to keep a lid on the celebrations with a week to go. He must be aware 55/45 national 2PP is a real chance.

    I am very optimistic about Strirling. Although I wouldn’t mind if Labor wins and Keenan has to spend 3 years in purgatory on the opposition back bench. See how much influence he has on “local issues”from there.

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