Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,088 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. Shows On

    I hear what you saying. It seems to me that the Liberals are just HOPING that the big swings go to their safest seats, and marginal seats somehow only get 1 – 2% swings. That just seems like complete fantasy land now.

    True. most of the marginals appear gone, but there are always surprises. But the swing has to go somewhere, and that means Labor will pick up seats in places it only dreamed about. It’ll be very interesting to see where it turns up – which of the (former) Ministers will have their ambitions shattered. Downer for leader? Or will Mayo be one of those ‘surprises’?

  2. [True. most of the marginals appear gone, but there are always surprises. But the swing has to go somewhere, and that means Labor will pick up seats in places it only dreamed about. It’ll be very interesting to see where it turns up – which of the (former) Ministers will have their ambitions shattered. Downer for leader? Or will Mayo be one of those ’surprises’?]

    I doubt Downer will stay long, he’ll want to get back to the manor.

    I’m just hoping like crazy that Pyne’s political career is sawn off.

  4. ABC News site is leading with a story that suggests Howard is implicated in the regional grants rorts. So it looks as if that may be the reason for his stonewalling today. My instinct suggests this is going to be big. Here he is, looking fishy: http://www.abc.net.au/news/

    I’ve looked around the Tiser, Courier-Mail, news.com.au etc., and although they aren’t giving the story as much prominence at this stage, they’re gathering a LOT of comments, including some saying ‘Why isn’t this the lead story?’

  5. “Or will Mayo be one of those ’surprises’?”

    I geeez….that would be just the fantastic icing on the cake. Beaten by Rudd in every way, Downer would have to fall on ground, roll around and eat dirt.

  6. #1041 hard core nightmare shiiiit there Ophuph. Leave the light on, and watch Return of the Jedi on loop.You should be fine in a week or so.

  7. Thanks Crikey Whitey…

    Editorial. Australian.

    Howard almost out of time

    Finally, The GG writes an article that clearly outlines why the Rodent must go. A few years too late, but they got there in the end.

    I was hoping for something like this, but didn’t expect it, or for it to be so early in the campaign. What dirt must they (or their competitors) have on Howard about the Regional rorts Program (me).

    Orders from Rupert? Has he jumped ship?

  10. Jenny 1054

    ‘ABC News site is leading with a story that suggests Howard is implicated in the regional grants rorts’.

    Great lead, Jenny. Should we be surprised, though?

    What about plausible deniability?

  11. [Jenny 1054

    ‘ABC News site is leading with a story that suggests Howard is implicated in the regional grants rorts’.]

    Umm, it’s actually a story on Minchin criticising the ALP over Costings.

  14. Crikey Whitey @ 1060 – if you read the report, though, it seems El Rodente or his department directly intervened to double a grant for a project in Wallan, which is in Fran Bailey’s seat. (I was in that seat the other day, BTW, and she’s also doing the ‘Liberal Party – what Liberal Party?’ thing.)

    Update on the coverage: story is now running no. 2 in SMH, with more than 90 comments last time I looked, and is second-top of the pops in the Age. The Hun has a long story on the subject as well, but nowhere near as prominent. Looks as if it’s starting to run.

  17. Thanks Jenny, Let it End. Will squizz.

    Lionel, by the way.

    I appreciated your touching post on the bloggers.

    I sent it to a perceptive person who had kind of wondered why one would blog.

    Along with the fact that William, l(ovely pic at Crikey) is doing all this.

    In his spare time.

  18. Frank – that’s really weird. The Minchin story, which is a real non-story, has been dropped into the slot, and the Howard one appears to have vanished. Something very odd going on at Aunty tonight?

  19. kina 1062

    “HEALTH Minister Tony Abbott said today the great benefit of Work Choices was that someone unhappy with their job could quit and find a new one.”

    Or, get sacked, Tony. Then find a new one.

  21. Got it.

    ‘The report includes evidence that the Prime Minister’s office was involved in doubling funds to $2 million for a project in a Coalition-held seat’.

    Faint with shock.

  22. The Australian. Cath Hart | November 17, 2007

    IMMIGRATION Minister Kevin Andrews has ordered a snap review of all 450 people held in immigration detention in Australia to establish whether an administrative error means their incarceration is technically unlawful.

    Department officers are being forced to go back and check the form of words used in the address and salutations on official letters notifying people they were in breach of their visa conditions and were no longer in Australia lawfully.

    The review — which has already prompted the release of 13 immigration detainees in the past three weeks — centres on whether notification letters were addressed to the visa applicant or their “authorised recipient”, usually a migration agent.

    Etc.

  24. 1071
    Crikey Whitey Says:
    November 17th, 2007 at 2:33 am
    Got it.

    ‘The report includes evidence that the Prime Minister’s office was involved in doubling funds to $2 million for a project in a Coalition-held seat’.

    Faint with shock.

    That was also discussed on the radio…PM?

  25. Oh how the mighty have fallen and how pleasurable it is to watch. Bolt and Albrechtsen, being the lightweights they, are rolled over very early in the campaign and Milne raised the white flag last week. Today we have Shannas, Kelly and Mitchell all jumping ship.

    That leaves only Devine and Ackerman standing on the burning deck, and they’re only doing so because neither can swim anyway.

    When those in the know desert en masse I think it’s fairly safe to invite the fat lady onto centre stage to commence warbling the last rites. Forget the “narrowing”, this coming week will be one to enjoy for the “implosion” 🙂

  28. [Are you guys serious about Rudd campaigning in Downer’s seat tomorrow?
    Dolly would hate that]

    I don’t think so. As far as I know he will be in Prospect which is in Adelaide.</blockquote?

    But I wish KR would just to give Lexy heart palpatations.

    He’d be assuming (rightly – sadly) that he was safe as houses so I’d be surprised if Lexy has taken the slightest interest in what was happening here. Might even cause Lexy to have to change his underwear 😉

  29. 924
    Swing Lowe Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 11:45 pm
    LTEP @ 916,

    “Fair enough, but the Coalition have drifted out to $3.70 on Betfair now. Betfair is probably not the market one should quote when trying to prove sentiment in the betting market, as it is so volatile…”

    Maybe Betfair IS the market to quote, precisely because of the volatility. My understanding is that it s more like a Stock Market, matching individual punters, than the traditional casino style bookie/mug relationship. if this is so, it.s more likely to measure “current” sentiment than the bookies. Just stand back a bit, and don’t let the minute by minute changes blind you to the big trends.

    I like volatility in the coalition price between $3.50-$3.80, and trending up.

  31. Yes, puzzling that the complete non-story on ALP policy costings was front page.

    Try to understand this, jounros: Howard hasnt submitted his either. The story is BS.

  32. Like the imagery, mad cow.
    Last Card Rodente standing sorta tall in Vegas before combusting spectacularly then falling on his own footprints.

    Postmodern Neoconservative 9/11 irony. Tres apt.

  33. “Last Card Rodente standing sorta tall in Vegas before combusting spectacularly then falling on his own footprints.”

    This is some acrobatic feat in time-space continuum, EC. Not to mention the mixed metaphors.

    For a start, Spanish for rat is “La Rata”. Then (a) if he were to undergo spontaneous combustion then there would be no body to fall; (b) footprints are left once the footprint maker (in this case, Ratty) has vacated the spot, but assuming not all of him had gone up in flames then his feet would still be in his footprints, hence it makes the exercise entire counter to logic and elementary physics, EC.

    The imagery of a Rat, dressed in Mexican cardsharp gear, black sombrero, embroidered shirt, silver buckle, playing seven card Texas hold ’em poker or Manila, staking it all on the last unseen card on the table, is somehow not credible. His is a game that depends on an ace in the hole, which is of advantage only in stud poker. Sadly, the aces that Johnny has drawn have turned up jokers. Cunning Rattus cloacadius has outsmarted himself this time with the long election. He’ll now drown in the ordure of his own making.

    For outstanding imagery of the election, Viewers At Home, please turn to the Herald News Review op ed page for a Leunig cartoon, accompanied by a cute little poem. Honourable second is a photo by Peter Morris, who snapped George Newhouse looking at his watch as he canvasses votes with a wheelchair bound patient (who looks to be in a coma or asleep). Brilliant. This one is in the News section pn page 7 of the SMH.

  36. Shanahack may sound like he’s got the message but he doesn’t really believe what he’s seeing. He’s been looking back at the last campaign/s and not getting the shift that Rudd represents or has tapped into. I think Piping Shrike really nails it on that blog when he refers to the anti-politics mood of much of the electorate that the ‘ending of the blame game’ and ‘working families’ rhetoric points to. Don’t care if he’s trying to write a few articles that will enable him to do an ‘I told ya so’ – he lost credibility around June…

  37. I have used Adam Carr’s comprehensive website to look at the difference between Senate and House votes in each state in the 2004 election. There is some rounding out imprecision, but basically, in NSW, the ALP lost .3 per cent and the LNP 1.5 to the rest; in Victoria, 2.5 and 1.0; in Queensland, 3.2 and 2.2; in SA, 1.2 and 0.6. In WA, the ALP lost 2.4 and the LNP gained 1.5; in Tasmania, the ALP lost 11.0 and the Liberals gained 4.1. Different parties, different ballot orders, different patterns of contesting both Houses, etc, make a difference, but the overall picture is that the majors lost between 1.8 and 5.4 per cent to the rest in the states in which they both lost. In the sates in which the ALP lost and the LNP gained, the overall loss to the rest was between 1.8 and 7.0 per cent. It is no surprise that Tasmania, with more than a century’s experience of STV, is different from the other states.

    I next looked at Newspoll’s state breakdown from yesterday and made some adjustments to the expected 2007 Senate vote based on the difference from 2004 and intutition. I applied a strong swing to Tasmania, in line with national figures, as Newspoll does not give Tasmanian figures.

    Then I went to the Senate calculator to see the results I would get:
    NSW – ALP 3, LNP 3.
    Vic – ALP 3, LNP 3 (with the Greens just missing out)
    Qld – ALP 3, LNP 3
    WA – ALP 3, LNP 3 (with no minor party preferences even needing to be counted)
    SA – ALP 3, LNP 2, Mr X 1
    Tas – ALP 3, LNP 2, Greens 1.
    This totals to ALP 18, LNP 16, Greens 1, Mr Xenophon 1, giving a Senate make-up, assuming no change in the territories, of ALP 34, LNP 37, Greens 3, FF 1, Mr Xenophon 1, meaning that the ALP would need the support of the Greens plus both of FF and Mr X to have legislation carried.

    If Newspoll is substantially understating the Greens vote, the results would be different.

  38. All seat of Melbourne Candidates including Tanner are all a joke. Quality leaves something to be desired. Jackasses the lot of them. All of them donkeys running in the Melbourne Cup.

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