Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,088 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  6. The Coalition’s 18 most marginal seats, taking into account redistributions are:

    Kingston
    Bonner
    Wakefield
    Makin
    Braddon
    Parramatta (Held by Labor, but now a notionally Liberal seat)
    Hasluck
    Stirling
    Wentworth
    Bass
    Solomon
    Moreton
    Lindsay
    Eden-Monaro
    Bennelong
    Dobell
    Deakin
    McMillan

  9. It doesn’t include Tas/WA / NT So polling has occurred in
    Corrangamite
    Boothby
    Page
    Blair
    LaTrobe
    but not:
    Braddon
    Bass
    Hasluck
    Soloman
    Stirling

  10. If the swings hold up and the poll is accurate, Labor could win upwards of 84 seats. Really all these polls run counterintuitively. Ah well… enough for me!

  11. TO ALL LABOR SUPPORTERS: lets stop being apathetic about channel 9 and 7 !!
    For the past 5 weeks I have taped 9 and 7 News and the ABC each night. Then deleted all non election news and compared the coverage.
    RESULTS ARE
    Channel 9 6pm edition :
    1/ either does not report a negative Liberal story at all !
    eg. Abbott’s video about workchoices taking away protection

    2/ give a pro Liberal issue a long airtime eg. ‘Garrett’s ‘gaffe’
    give a pro Labor issue short air time eg. ‘Auditor General’s rorts affair’
    3/ place a pro Liberal issue as the FIRST News item eg. ‘Garrett’s ‘gaffe’
    place a pro Labor issue as the 4th or 5th News item eg. ‘rorts affair’
    4/ and/or shows the least effective of Rudd’s daily attacks on a particular issue
    5/ and/or shows the first or 2nd half of one of his sentences
    It takes a SKILLED and determined manager to present such subtle biased News

    Channel 7
    copy Channel 9’s technique’s but NOT every night

    ABC
    Irrespective of whether pro Liberal or pro labor , its usually the first or 2nd story

    Shows negative Liberal & negative Labor issues equally as they arise
    I was a channel 9 viewer for 25 years. Now I’ll be the ABC only
    I am going to convince my extended family & friends to do the same with a request they ALSO spread the message.
    I have switched from the Sun which I prefered because of sport to the AGE
    (& view the Sun’s sport on the web & refuse to read their other ‘news’)
    WILL OTHERS FOLLOW OR WILL YOU ALLOW THESE RIGHT WING TV CHANNEL’s & NEWSPAPERS make a profit broadcasting biased political news ????

  12. [the Government’s 18 most marginal seats in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia]

    Sheesh, I’m having an Abbott of a night tonight!

  13. [The average margin in those 18 seats is about 2.5% yes?]

    My quick calculation suggests 3.3%. Because some of the seats they didn’t survey are lower than those they included. E.g. Stirling and Hasluck 2.0 and 1.8 aren’t included, but I presume Latrobte and Blair are in, and they are on 5.7 and 5.8.

    [So that makes the 54/46 look like a 6.5% swing, at least within that group?]

  14. What’s that LTEP…finally convinced that Labor will win? Go on, just say it, you’ll feel much better. Maybe even say it out loud, all by yourself. Words on the computer screen aren’t real, after all.

  15. Ron, doesn’t surprise me in the least. But then I don’t watch TV news anymore. Got sick of the ABC news years ago when they ‘dumbed down’ their coverage and now I’m losing patience with SBS thanks to their ads.

    Which really only leaves a few ABC radio programs that are still honest journalism.

  16. [Which really only leaves a few ABC radio programs that are still honest journalism.]

    Listen to NewsRadio. Not much opinion, just rolling reports on the stories of the day.

  17. so its goodnight from me…

    and its goodnight from john….

    “JOHN Howard enters the final week of his last campaign facing defeat as Kevin Rudd and Labor hold their election-winning lead in key marginal seats.

    According to the latest Newspoll survey, covering both parties’ election launches this week, the Coalition has failed to peg back Labor’s lead in the Government’s 18 most marginal seats in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

    On primary votes in the 18 seats, Labor extended its lead in the past two weeks to five points — 47 per cent to the Coalition’s 42per cent — to give the ALP a two-party preferred lead of 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

    To be even competitive, the Government has to pull back at least two or three percentage points in the final week of the election campaign.

    The survey of marginal seats is in keeping with all the national polling in recent months, which has shown a consistent eight-point lead for Labor.

    If the swing recorded in the Newspoll survey — the biggest of the campaign to date, after canvassing 3615 voters between Monday and Thursday — is uniform in the marginal seats and across-the-board in the four states, the Coalition would lose between 18 and 28 seats.”

    goodnight

  21. LNP has been suffering these past few days whilst Labor has been on a high. It is not going to get better for Howard. The will be lucky to scrape up 42 primary on the 24th.

  23. Shows on, etc…

    Taking the national swing of about 6.5%, as well as the swing in marginals at the same 6.5%, and considering that the swing will be much lower in Labor held seats (say about 4% for the 60 seats), that means that the current swing in the remaining LNP seats is approximately a uniform 8-9%.

    Supposing that 30 of the remaining LNP seats will also only swing against sitting members by about 3-4%, that means the remaining 30 or so seats have a uniform swing of around 11-12%.

    That brings Labor in with a chance, a good chance, of picking up a further 20 seats or more, with a possibility of Labor obtaining close to 100 seats in total!

    That’s my calculations at least. And maths isn’t my strongest point! And it is late!

    Anyone see it different, based on these poll figures?

  27. [ShowsOn, that makes it 7.3%. Paterson is looking interesting eh?]

    Totally. I just have no idea what the coalition does from here to win.

    More to the point. According to Shanahan, Labor must be on at least a 6.8% swing in S.A. (He has to be bigger than NSW).

    This means EITHER Boothby or Sturt is set to fall, most likely Boothby.

  28. Well Showson, they didn’t poll Sturt or Boothby so we can’t really conclude that. In fact we can’t conclude anything about SA because they didn’t poll it at all. Swings within states tend to be more uniform than a national swing (I think).

  30. [ShowsOn, that makes it 7.3%. Paterson is looking interesting eh?]

    OK, I’m officially on the Paterson bandwagon 😛

    Baldwin is gone – quote me.

    [Shows on, etc…

    Taking the national swing of about 6.5%, as well as the swing in marginals at the same 6.5%, and considering that the swing will be much lower in Labor held seats (say about 4% for the 60 seats), that means that the current swing in the remaining LNP seats is approximately a uniform 8-9%.]

    The Newspoll is ONLY Coalition marginals, no Labor marginals. Well, with the exception of Parramatta which counts as a coalition marginal due to redistribution.

    My shakey math suggests it is a 7.3% swing in government marginals in NSW, SA, QLD, VIC.

    If Labor don’t win Bennelong and Wentworth, then they’ll win some 10% seats to balance out the average.

    [That brings Labor in with a chance, a good chance, of picking up a further 20 seats or more, with a possibility of Labor obtaining close to 100 seats in total!]

    According to these marginal seat figures I think the Labor will get about 92. My old prediction was 85.

    It would look something like this:
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=4.3&nsw=6.7&vic=6.8&qld=8.6&wa=4&sa=6.8&tas=4&act=4&nt=4&retiringfactor=1.5

    No data for WA, NT, TAS so I just put in 4%.

    I see no reason why the marginals would swing greater than the state average. I mean ordinarily wouldn’t they swing less?

  32. Rudd on course for victory

    Dennis Shanahan, Political Editor | November 17, 2007

    JOHN Howard enters the final week of his last campaign facing defeat as Kevin Rudd and Labor hold their election-winning lead in key marginal seats.

  33. Yee ha, another 1000+ thread!

    Hewson on LL seemed a bit all over the place in a way, but a lot more pleasant on the ear than any LNP figure we now see. He could not conceive of Wentworth and/or Bennelong falling to the ALP, and had trouble reconciling Howard’s lead on best economic manager in the opinion polls with the TPP vote. Keating’s sobriquet of “feral abacus” came to mind. Cameron had a good retort – the real question was “Will Rudd stuff it up?”

    Both Hewson and Cameron launched into dissertations about the size of the swing required, and how Wentworth/Bennelong/maybe losing a WA seat would make the task even tougher. There was then some irrelevant stuff about how Whitlam recorded a 7%+ swing in ’69 but still didn’t win (well dur, he obviously had to come from even further behind than this time!)

    Methinks Cameron is singing from the same “don’t gloat” hymn book that every other ALP hack/member/fellow traveller has been given.

  34. [In fact we can’t conclude anything about SA because they didn’t poll it at all.]

    LTEP, read it again as they did indeed poll SA

    According to the latest Newspoll survey, covering both parties’ election launches this week, the Coalition has failed to peg back Labor’s lead in the Government’s 18 most marginal seats in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

    The swings in the marginal seats in the four states — between 6.7 per cent in NSW and 8.6 per cent in Queensland — would sweep away seven ministers. In NSW, these include the Prime Minister in Bennelong, Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth and Gary Nairn in Eden-Monaro.

    In Victoria, Fran Bailey in McEwen and Peter McGauran in Gippsland would lose their seats, while in Queensland popular minister Mal Brough would lose Longman. Ageing Minister Christopher Pyne would lose Sturt in South Australia, while the seats of Roads Minister Jim Lloyd in NSW (Robertson) and Mr Costello in Victoria (Higgins) would be threatened.

  36. PS1: Surely Jack Marx, in his review of pulchritudinous parliamentarians, could not have missed Dr Patricia Petersen in Warringah? She’s single-handedly fired up male interest in the election’s outcome in my office!

  37. Sinic: Galaxy 53/47 in the marginals would actually be great. Really too far ahead to be caught in one week but, small enough to allow bigger swings elsewhere, since the last national Galaxy was 54/46. Galaxy is the most conservative of the polls for Labor.

  38. Shows On….I see no reason why the marginals would swing greater than the state average. I mean ordinarily wouldn’t they swing less?

    My prediction a couple of weeks ago was for 106 seats, more hope than anything else at the time, but I was anticipating the decline (even further) of the Libs campaign and a late rush to Labor.

    My point, probably badly expressed (Friday night beers i guess), is that YES, the marginals are probably swinging less than the rest of the Lib held seats, meaning that LNP seats on margins of up to 14% or so are now at serious risk of falling to Labor. This is based on the thinking that the LNP will retain half of their ‘safe’ seats with a much smaller swing (say 3-4%), meaning that the potential swing in the other ‘safe’ seats could be greater than 10% on average, and in some cases up to 15%.

    In other words, expect many surprises on the 24th! There may be some disappointments (Wentworth for example), but these will be far outweighed by seats such as North Sydney, Higgins, Sturt possibly falling to Labor.

    My 106 is now a serious chance.

  39. 894
    Grog Says:
    Can we make a drinking game that consists of having a drink everytime a commentator mentions that 20-25% of the voters only make up their minds in the last week?

    A sure ticket to the emergency ward and a free stomach pump.

  40. Shanahan’s calling Howard, Turnbull, Nairn, Brough, Pyne, Lloyd and Costello as roadkill.

    That’s the top three Lib leadership group plus the anointed one (Brough) gone.

    Maybe we WILL see the neo-cons ousted – the Libs must banish the extremists after this drubbing, surely?

  41. In subconscious support of LTEP, I had my first post-election nightmare last night … the Libs hung on by 4 seats. Yes my head says comfortable ALP victory etc. etc., but past defeat scars a soul, does it not?

    LTEP is simply the cyberspace embodiment of the subliminal twitch that most ALP barrackers and pre-2007 Geelong supporters harbour but never acknowledge, lest it overwhelm the host.

    I’ll be staying in a hotel on election night. Sadly, my dream gave no information about the location of the hotel swimming pool, or the weight of the TV in my room.

  43. [My point, probably badly expressed (Friday night beers i guess), is that YES, the marginals are probably swinging less than the rest of the Lib held seats, meaning that LNP seats on margins of up to 14% or so are now at serious risk of falling to Labor. This is based on the thinking that the LNP will retain half of their ’safe’ seats with a much smaller swing (say 3-4%), meaning that the potential swing in the other ’safe’ seats could be greater than 10% on average, and in some cases up to 15%.]

    I hear what you saying. It seems to me that the Liberals are just HOPING that the big swings go to their safest seats, and marginal seats somehow only get 1 – 2% swings. That just seems like complete fantasy land now.

  44. Started looking in on your site around 6pm. Still here apart from watching Lateline. My wife’s gone to bed but, hey, there are more important things.
    If I may be allowed to enter these hallowed halls:
    (1) I don’t want to see el rodente lose, I want to see him humiliated.
    (2) Just watched Coonan – Conroy on ZDNet. Your commentary is spot on but I have a bit of a worry. I keep having these great dreams about Amanda Redman, and then she morphs into Helen and I wake up in a cold sweat.
    (3) If you have any doubts about next weekend go to http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/. The stats are a bit heavy but, as far as I can tell, right. It’s “An ALP two party preferred result of 55.15%”, that is 94 seats. Smile!

  45. [In subconscious support of LTEP, I had my first post-election nightmare last night … the Libs hung on by 4 seats. Yes my head says comfortable ALP victory etc. etc., but past defeat scars a soul, does it not?]

    I agree, LTEP is just one of those eternally pessimistic true believers. I have no idea why people gang up on him so much.

    We should save that for Glen, Stephen Kaye, and my favourite, Generic Moron.

  46. Ophuph Hucksake Says:
    November 17th, 2007 at 1:41 am
    In subconscious support of LTEP, I had my first post-election nightmare last night … the Libs hung on by 4 seats. Yes my head says comfortable ALP victory etc. etc., but past defeat scars a soul, does it not?

    The scars can be long and deep, as a South Melbourne supporter I know that better than most. But 2005 fixed that, as will 2007 for LTEP.

    But he came close, oh so very close, to spitting out the words. It’ll do him good if he can finally spit them out. He may even lose his tag of a ‘concern troll’ if he can do it.

    Come on LTEP, call it. For all our sakes!

  48. [Come on LTEP, call it. For all our sakes!]

    He has! He thinks Howard is going to win. That counts as a call.

    [Wonder if Hewson would consider joining politics again? Maybe the only Liberal character left with credibility.]

    No way, too old, and he makes too much money in the private sector to bother.

  49. This sounds eerily like a trial run endorsement of Labor from The Oz:

    “I would put it slightly differently. The Opposition has to suit the times. And that is why Labor deserves to win. It has conveyed a simple message: Labor suits the times.

    Labor’s priorities are felt by the public to be their priorities and, what is more, the nation’s priorities.

    On education, on broadband, on climate change, on federal-state relations, on industrial relations, it’s not that Labor has detailed policy prescriptions that is important.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22765254-7583,00.html

  50. Editorial. Australian.

    Howard almost out of time

    November 17, 2007

    After four terms, the Coalition appears to have run out of luck and lost the attention of voters.

    THE whistle has not yet blown but, given the results of today’s Newspoll of 18 marginal seats, only an unprecedented rush of support back to the Coalition in the final week will save John Howard from defeat.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22771605-16741,00.html

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