Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,088 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. On the “what can Kevin do to lose” angle, assuming there are no untimely deaths of key political or constitutional figures, I can’t think of anything much KR could do to lose. Except have a huge (independently verified) hole in the costings.
    Grog @ 857, what you’re saying doesn’t quite ring true to me. There must be some deadline for submitting policies for costing, otherwise people could put them in at 5pm the day before the election. Which wouldn’t make sense, because then the Sir Humphreys wouldn’t have time to get the work done.
    Maybe the deadline is written down somewhere other than the charter (eg published by Treasury when each election gets called)? Just guessing, but I reckon there must be some kind of deadline.

  2. The AC Nielsen polls for 1998, 2001, 2004 show in the last 2-3 polls Labor being fairly stable on primary and they consistently over estimated the LNP by a few points at each election.

  3. [Footnote: Paterson is one of those places that has not and will never be reached by cable, has a lot of lines too long for adsl, and also is unsuited to the wimax network that coonan thinks is great.]

    Hopefully Labor is promoting their broadband policy to pick up some easy votes.

    [“It’s claimed Federal Labor has failed to submit all of its policies to the Finance Department for costing.”

    Probably nonsense, but if so: good. That system is a friggin joke. We have a highly politicised public service, especially treasury.]

    This is just a standard issue thing that happens every election. It is like the debate about the rules of the debate. Labor will hand over all their policies by Tues or Wednesday, and treasury will release the costings about 4 PM on Friday.

    The Coalition will do EXACTLY the same thing.

  4. Hi no. 942

    “It’s claimed Federal Labor has failed to submit all of its policies to the Finance Department for costing.”

    whats the source for this please? just curious

  5. [ShowsOn @ 934,

    I think the Galaxy poll is being published in the Sunday papers. Polls don’t tend to get published in Saturday papers, as less people read the paper on Saturday…]

    There is a marginal seat Newspoll on Saturday, and a marginal seat Galaxy on Sunday.

    Here was the tip off regarding the Newspoll:

    [What the papers say, Tony Delroy: Journo from Weekend Australian reports that the latest newspoll, taken after both party launches this week, has the coalition failing to make any inroads into Labors lead. 2pp 54-46 in Labors favor in the key 18 marginal electorates (unspecified).]

  6. I have better things to do with my energies at present than waste them on wankers like you ESJ. I had three press releases get a run in our local rags this week. We are smiting hip and thigh our local fool of a Liberal and his bogus “hoons” campaign. We are expecting a 10% swing and the Liberals won’t trouble this seat again for a decade.

  7. ShowsOn @ 953,
    You’re probably right. I vaguely remember Treasury costings being pretty last minute in the past.
    Which probably means they can’t affect things too much in an election as one-sided as this one.

  9. [ #954
    GetReal Says:
    November 17th, 2007 at 12:05 am

    Hi no. 942

    “It’s claimed Federal Labor has failed to submit all of its policies to the Finance Department for costing.”

    whats the source for this please? just curious ]
    .
    .
    The source is the Honourable John Winston Howard. The PM claims Labor has missed a deadline. Labor says Howard is making up the deadline and will have the figures submitted in time.

  11. [ShowsOn @ 953,
    You’re probably right. I vaguely remember Treasury costings being pretty last minute in the past.
    Which probably means they can’t affect things too much in an election as one-sided as this one.]

    Yeah seriously it is a non-issue. And Labor are being pretty prudent going through Access Economics on everything first anyway.

    For example, access costed one of Labor’s budget reply policies and it turned out they had underestimated some savings to the tune of 400 $million.

  13. Further to tomorrows Newspoll: Tony Delroy spoke with James Madden of the Weekend Australian on his ‘What the papers say’ segment. Madden said that “the coalition has failed to peg back” Labors lead in 18 key marginal seats; that Labor had increased its primary vote in those marginals by 5%, from 47 to 52; and that the 2pp was 54-46 to Labor. The marginals quoted are [unspecified] seats in NSW, VIC, QLD and SA.

    Note: I waited until the delayed rebroadcast for 891 ABC Adelaide before quoting Madden on Labors primary vote. I’m relaying it as he said it.

  15. Mad Cow
    We had a generic Labor ad in Prime News, from the Taree transmitter, which then ended with an image of James Langley (ALP Lyne). Of course there were once again ~10 Baldwin Ads to counter this modest effort. If we have TV ads for Labor in Lyne but none in Paterson – what on earth is happening/ Has the Paterson campaign been given any personnel from Sussex ST/ Who is running the campaign?

  16. [Further to tomorrows Newspoll: Tony Delroy spoke with James Madden of the Weekend Australian on his ‘What the papers say’ segment. Madden said that “the coalition has failed to peg back” Labors lead in 18 key marginal seats; that Labor had increased its primary vote in those marginals by 5%, from 47 to 52; and that the 2pp was 54-46 to Labor. The marginals quoted are [unspecified] seats in NSW, VIC, QLD and SA.

    Note: I waited until the delayed rebroadcast for 891 ABC Adelaide before quoting Madden on Labors primary vote. I’m relaying it as he said it.]

    Excellent, thanks for the info.

    I HOPE they polled Sturt this time. They didn’t do it last time though.

  18. thanks Paul K. realise i must have missed an earlier comment and saw story…so its really a non story.

    i am just hanging around to confirm whether Karl is correct saying that labor has “increased” its primary vote in marginals trom 47 to 52, with 2pp 54-46…

    and as for the galaxy stuff….these polls are marketing exercises for the pollsters, surely…so they are cutting the same data with slightly different interpretations to create effect, no?

  21. [ShowsOn… I take it you’ve assisted Ms Hanshin in Sturt?]

    Yes. Well, not directly. I’ve done letter-boxing at the North East end of the electorate. It is an area that takes in the state seat of Torrens that swung 10% to Labor at the 2006 state election.

    I’ll be doing more letterboxing next week, and handing out how to votes on election day.

  22. [You’re right – this analysis is fairly pointless if we don’t know which seats have been polled. We don’t know if it includes any Labor marginals]

    Pretty sure that one of the commentators earlier in the week said that this upcoming Galaxy poll would be of 22 Liberal marginal seats.

  24. Mad Cow,

    While we wait for Galaxy where are you based? I am in Maitland just in Hunter, so I cant vote for Jim. One Baldwin truck on New England Highway in East Maitland, nothing from Arneman anywhere!! I agree with you, I dont know where the ALP stuff is. There are plenty of votes to be won in East Maitland, Metford, Tenambit, Lorn and Largs which have been brought back into Paterson.

  25. Good luck ShowsOn. At least you’ll know you’ve done your part.

    Anyhow, all these polls are rather unintuitive. Only 1 week to go til we know for sure.

  26. Disgusting line tonight from Vaile, re auditor-general: …”that unelected individual …” That’s red-neck copper speak. Pig.

    Maybe endorsements in MSM will go something like this:

    THE Howard Government does not deserve to be re-elected. During the campaign and its 11 years in office it has shown itself to be self-serving in the extreme.

    It has betrayed the trust of the Australian people. It has betrayed the notion of a fair go – for workers, for refugees, for caring. The Howard Government has changed Australia from a fair society into one that resembles the jungle – red in tooth and claw.

    It is now time to redress the balance. Every voter has a choice and this newspaper (insert name) believes the present Prime Minister has served us well. Thank you, Mr Howard. The time has come to move aside, to swallow your pride.

    oh.,bugger it, but you get the drift.

    I reckon they will try to sit on the fence, but won’t totally endorse Howard.

  28. [Good luck ShowsOn. At least you’ll know you’ve done your part.

    Anyhow, all these polls are rather unintuitive. Only 1 week to go til we know for sure.]

    Well yeah, I’m at the point where I’m just fascinated about what the final result will be.

    I do think Rudd will win, but it could be anything from 80 -95 seats.

    Anything above 76 is a bonus in my book.

  30. ShowsOn, I’ll be happy with 74, since I believe they’ll be able to make a minority government with that number. 14 seats isn’t really too bad really.

  31. LOL, good to see you calling it Antony 🙂

    If he loses it next weekend he’ll be the first prime minister to suffer that indignity since Stanley Bruce in 1929. To some, the prospect is looking more and more likely. “Every poll shows the Prime Minister will lose,” says ABC election analyst Antony Green. “Maxine McKew will win it on the primary vote. If the country doesn’t want Mr Howard as prime minister why would the people of Bennelong want him as the sitting member?”

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/its-bennelong-time-since-a-pm-was-rolled/2007/11/16/1194766965904.html

  32. [ShowsOn, I’ll be happy with 74, since I believe they’ll be able to make a minority government with that number. 14 seats isn’t really too bad really.]

    Who knows what will happen if they end up with 74 😐

    We could end up back at the polls in January.

  33. 964
    BenC Says:
    November 17th, 2007 at 12:16 am
    Karl,

    Those primaries must be wrong, thats only 2% from the 2pp!!

    Hi Ben,
    I don’t believe it either, that’s why I waited for the Adelaide broadcast before posting the comment. Madden was quite clear, but he may have mis-spoke. He said:

    “Labor has increased its lead by 5% from 47 to 52%”

    Then he said that would give Labor a 54-46% 2pp overall.

    I’ve got these comments on both my file cards; one card each for the Melbourne and Adelaide broadcasts.

    Sorry about the delay posting. I promised I would do the dishes before going to bed… don’t ask.

  34. @ 979 mad cow Says:

    BenC, Medowie. Where the real estate agents sell 2 bedroom houses on residential lots for 240K as “ideal first home”.

    Aren’t there al lot of god-botherers congregated (so to speak) around that area?

  37. No worries Karl,

    Just checking to see. I love those primary and 2pp numbers in the marginals. Just waiting for the official numbers and seats.

  38. [No worries Karl,

    Just checking to see. I love those primary and 2pp numbers in the marginals. Just waiting for the official numbers and seats.]

    Should be up on The Oz homepage in 20 minutes.

  40. 74-74-2 would make life absolutely fascinating for dispassionate observers. Every House vote could be the Government’s last.
    Not much fun for the partisans, though.
    And definitely not going to happen this time!

  45. Just before I go. Also posted on next thread.

    What the Papers Say. Delroy, ABC.

    Extended chat with Laura Tingle, the Fin.

    Game, set, match. Wrap comment. Laura. ‘At this stage, Kevin Rudd will be PM in a week’.

    The GG.

    Labor extends lead.

    Kevin Andrews orders urgent review of all 450 in immigration detention.

    13 released thus far.

    PS I might hang out for whatever is being promised, poll wise.

  47. I think this is very bad for the coalition because of this:

    “The swings in the marginal seats in the four states — between 6.7 per cent in NSW and 8.6 per cent in Queensland.

    “NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia”

    So the LOWEST swing is 6.7%. Remeber, Rudd only needs an average of 4.3% to win the election, and the LOWEST he is getting is 6.7 in the state with the highest population!

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