Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,088 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

Comments Page 19 of 22
1 … 18 19 20 … 22

  1. The problem with galaxy is we don’t know what the other minor parties got Grog like the National Party, The Democrats and Family First which is why the 11% to the Greens could be a crock but we’ll see if it is released in the Hun tomorrow. Perhaps it included Victorian marginals?? Or perhaps Bennelong was included we’ll never know.

    Braddon will be interesting on election night its a shame Furgie looks to be done and dusted in Bass he’s a far better MP than Barker.

    Maybe Lateline took notice of ShowsOn’s petition if Hewson was on Lateline what i shame i missed it, oh well they’ll be more to come later.

    Am i the only one bored with the election. I’m seriously let’s just see whether we stick with the govt we’ve got or change it, this is giving me the red ass lol!

  5. What the papers say, Tony Delroy: Journo from Weekend Australian reports that the latest newspoll, taken after both party launches this week, has the coalition failing to make any inroads into Labors lead. 2pp 54-46 in Labors favor in the key 18 marginal electorates (unspecified).

  6. Mad Cow the Paterson story is too sad. Where can I buy a Jim Arneman t-shirt if that will help? If you could pick saturation tv of the best labor adverts, which ones would you choose? Paterson was one that I thought Labor would go for. There must be a message that could bite there even at this late stage.

  7. There’s nothing particularly different about the poll. We had a 51/49 in Qld, a 53/47 in NSW and now a 53/47 nationally.

    Yet people are unnerved by it?

  8. A small part of me worries about Rudd not matching Howard on the education tax rebate policy. Economic conservatism is all well and good and it might impress the likes of Peter Hartcher, but a lot of punters out there care more about extra money in their pockets.

  10. Glen,

    I think the National party vote was included in the ‘Coalition’ vote.

    And LTEP,

    Not sure what’s happening with Betfair and Sportsbet, but Sportingbet have moved out today from ALP $1.32/Libs $3.35 to ALP $1.28/Libs $3.60. Portlandbet have also moved out today as well (from Libs $3.30 to Libs $3.50).

    Centrebet haven’t moved at all today.

  11. Antony Green on the Cowan TV Ads Thread re Galaxy Poll.

    [47 Antony Green Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 11:25 pm
    I think there is something wrong with either the Galaxy poll or the national polls. Newspoll is only showing 10% minor party, and the last three national Galaxy polls have had the minor party vote between 7-9%. Then suddenly in the marginal seats the minor party vote is 15%. Normally the minor party vote is lower in marginal seats as it gets squeezed out by the major parties’ intensity of campagn effort. I don’t feel the polarising mood I remember in 1974, 1975 or 1993 that would produce such a low minor party vote. But perhaps its because the Democrats have disappeared. As voters have drifted away from the Liberals this time, there hasn’t been a half-way house with whom to park your primary vote.]

  12. [What the papers say, Tony Delroy: Journo from Weekend Australian reports that the latest newspoll, taken after both party launches this week, has the coalition failing to make any inroads into Labors lead. 2pp 54-46 in Labors favor in the key 18 marginal electorates (unspecified).]

    YES!

    Thanks for passing this on.

  13. Coalition 43
    Labor 42
    Greens 11

    What would that mean on an election night?

    And good point about federation from John Hewson

    (Later off we went to see a speech by that John Hewson, half an hour later we were feeling absolution.)

  14. Supposedly The Australian has won the News Award for Best Newspaper.

    The only problem with this ‘honour’ is that it’s only open to News Ltd media organisations…

  15. Mad Cow, you’d think Labor would be promoting an ambulance driver as an example of a candidate with a proven record of serving the public.
    From the little I’ve seen, Jim Arneman seems like a good bloke.

  16. [ 877
    Gaz Footiscray Says:
    November 16th, 2007 at 11:27 pm

    Am I remembering correctly here? Can anyone else remember Michael Kroger on Lateline last Friday nite saying that the second last week of the campaign was THE most important week or all and would decide the election? ]

    He did say it but I don’t think it was last Friday. I think it was a few weeks ago. Probably in the Lateline archives somewhere if you can be bothered going thru them.
    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/archives.htm

  17. Swing Lowe: I’m taking this from the other Cowan ad thread

    From Stephen:

    “It looks like somebody just put a fair bit of money on the Coalition using betfair and sportsbet. Betfair went from $3.85 to $3.65 and sportsbet from $3.75 to $3.50. Both went down at once!”

  18. Seems Possum’s analysis is going to be right. He calculated that the smallest swings are in labor seats, then Liberal marginal seats with the biggest swings in Liberal safe seats. This why you see Rudd campaigning in Liberal safe seats – they are up for grabs. Which is just about perfect for Labor, maximises their gains.

  19. Glen, dear. 900.

    ‘Am i the only one bored with the election. I’m seriously let’s just see whether we stick with the govt we’ve got or change it, this is giving me the red ass lol’!

    Cordial. Language. Bottie probs.

    Don’t stay up too late.

  23. [Seems Possum’s analysis is going to be right. He calculated that the smallest swings are in labor seats, then Liberal marginal seats with the biggest swings in Liberal safe seats. This why you see Rudd campaigning in Liberal safe seats – they are up for grabs. Which is just about perfect for Labor, maximises their gains.]

    I don’t know, I’d give up 3 seats on 10% margins if Bennelong, Wentworth and Sturt all fell.

  24. LTEP @ 916,

    Fair enough, but the Coalition have drifted out to $3.70 on Betfair now. Betfair is probably not the market one should quote when trying to prove sentiment in the betting market, as it is so volatile…

  27. Have you ever stopped to think Kina, that KR is campaigning in 5-10% seats because he has to?

    A everything alright you seem a little flat these days, dont overtire yourself on the campaign trail we will need you for the post mortems!

  29. Cameron wasn’t pretending when he said it’s still going to be very, very difficult for Labor to win. Perhaps none of you remember – I’m sure you’ve tried to blot the 2004 catastrophe from your minds – but before that election he basically said that Latham wasn’t going to win. He’s a bit more confident now but he knows that the polls are vastly unreliable and Labor’s supposed lead will disappear come voting day.

  30. [WTF were they polling Lilley for? I thought that was rather bizarre.
    What’s next? A poll in Griffith? LOL]

    I guess cos Swan lost it in 1996.

    [Have you ever stopped to think Kina, that KR is campaigning in 5-10% seats because he has to?]

    Interestingly, Howard hasn’t visited Sturt because it would make it harder for Pyne to win.

  33. 920 NGK – covered this earlier, there is no deadline (except one made up by Costello). Apparently they’ll submit them on Monday – the costings have to go THROUGH THE PM (!!!!), so my guess is the ALP doesn’t want Howard to have them until the last possible moment.

    It’s a crap system, and if the ALP wins I hope they keep it to bore it up the Libs for not agreeing to the amendments Tanner put forward last year.

  34. [http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22767858-11949,00.html

    Latest Newspoll]

    That’s not the new one, that’s the state by state breakdown published Friday.

    Apparently there is a new marginal seat one that will go online in 30 – 60 minutes.

  35. Ed @905, as I said, all they need to do is a bit of name recognition for Jim so he is associated with the positives (health, education, broadband etc). And some targeted leaflets that deal directly with the points of Baldwin’s pamphlets (now he’s up to a 9 point plan). And so much of what he says is flimsy and can be easily rebuked.

    If anyone has any say with head office.. please bite them for me 🙂

    One slight correction. I saw earlier on prime an ad that went like this.
    (no sound apart from the sound effects)

    Photo of Rudd with text to do with ‘education revolution’ tick mark sound effect “ding”

    Photo of Howard “He hasn’t” (or something like that) failure sound effect (borrowed from price is right I think).

    Another round like this to do with broadband.

    Finally “Rudd is committed to staying the full term”
    Cut to Howard Photo. Text: “he isn’t”

    Fantastic ad. Was it pitched at Paterson? Could be. I’m not sure how these things work – if the ad is localised to one transmitter (newcastle/lower hunter area) or if its over the whole Prime network.

  38. I notice even Gauleiter Shanahan has turned against ze Fuhrer in ze latest Volkische Beobachter. With Standartenführer Bolt gone over to the ozer side, there’s only ze Devine family und Herr Akerman shtill loyal.

  39. Re: 844, constant lurker Says:
    [November 16th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
    I’m in Melbourne. Not one piece of electioneering material from letterboxing from any candidate. We did receive some material via Australia Post from Lindsay Tanner.]

    For the record, I live in Melbourne, and my wife has received one personally addressed letter from Lindsay Tanner. We have had only one unaddressed flier (Adam Brandt, Greens). Most interestingly, I found one brochure/how-to-vote card on the ground in my street for the Liberal contender, Andrea Del Ciotto, but we never received one in our letterbox. I guess they ran out of them before they got to our house.

  41. Footnote: Paterson is one of those places that has not and will never be reached by cable, has a lot of lines too long for adsl, and also is unsuited to the wimax network that coonan thinks is great.

  42. “It’s claimed Federal Labor has failed to submit all of its policies to the Finance Department for costing.”

    Probably nonsense, but if so: good. That system is a friggin joke. We have a highly politicised public service, especially treasury.

    A massive Treasury bureacracy makes Costello look good, then the opposition has to do everything off their own bat. Bugger it. Its a cook up job.

    In any case, the article makes it plain Howard hasnt either.

  45. ShowsOn @ 934,

    I think the Galaxy poll is being published in the Sunday papers. Polls don’t tend to get published in Saturday papers, as less people read the paper on Saturday…

  46. Thanks Paul K,
    Kroger is so annoyingly arrogant and sneering, (mate of PCs of course)- just great to catch him out. He also had the audacity to say today that this new regional investment funding targeting Liberal seats controversy was not nearly as important to THIS election as Roz Kelly’s whiteboard which he said everyone still remembers. Believe it! He’s probably crawled back under his rock till his next outing by now anyway.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 19 of 22
1 … 18 19 20 … 22