Today’s Morgan poll, a face-to-face survey of 890 voters taken on the weekend, has Labor leading 56.5-43.5 compared with the just slightly implausible 62-38 in the equivalent poll a week earlier. Labor leads 48 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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its still pretty good, although 62 was better :)….
The last Morgan was an outlier – we’d been told to expect perhaps 5% of the polls, for whatever reason, wouldn’t fit the data at all. Consequently, Morgan was very quiet about the whole thing – probably embarrassed at the results. This one is more meaty, and within the MOE of today’s AC Nielsen poll as well. It seems that the final count of 55-45 is looking quite firm.
What’s odd is how many people refuse to believe any of this psephological wealth. I just had lunch with two fairly left-wing friends of mine (who live in Kingsford-Smith) and they vehmently argued that the election will go on all night, that it’ll come down to postal ballots, etc. None of this is in any way suggested by the data, but that’s how the electorate (at least in this tiny sampling) is feeling right now – as if a Labor win were still going to slip away at the very last minute…
I find it a little wierd that they’re not comparing the figures to the last face-to-face but instead to the phone poll. Possibly because they’re too embarassed to talk about the huge drops in Labor primary and 2PP that would arise from that ‘just slightly implausible’ 62-38.
Did the Morgans ever show up close to 56% during the ’04 campaign?
A great set of numbers….confirming the trend, the campaign, the month, the year.
Is this the Narrowing?
IT’S THE NARROWING!!!!
Funny how there’s no poll outlier that has the Coalition in a good position. This demonstrates, to me at least, that the vote is leaning towards the higher end of the MoE.
On election night, it’s quite likely that we could see the vote reflect the consistent polling, with Labor receiving 55% of the TPP.
With the last of the ‘swingers’ coming down on the side of the preferred ‘government’, i.e., Labor, this could potentially go higher – maybe 56-57%.
Does this sound plausible to you Psephs?
Of course the polls will tighten once the real election gets under way…
Once people start focussing…
and stop sleepwalking
And joking
You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…
Hey LTEP this proves your point. Add this poll to all of the other polls showing Labor a mile in front and Rudd as preferred PM by a good margin plus his job satisfaction way above Howards, along with the betting markets shortening Labor’s odds of winning, you can only reach one conclusion, ‘the Libs are bound to win now’. Now let’s see where did I go wrong with that analysis? Hmm….
Yes Pancho this democracy thingy is a sickening joke isn’t it? Voters are so ungrateful….
#12
The point is not all people are prospering.
With the govt’s big bloopers and Labor’s well received launch, 54-46 looks like it’ll be as good as it gets for the govt. If there’s any change in the final week, it’s more likely to be to Labor, and thus enable a night of carnage on 24 Nov.
[Once people start focussing…]
I hope Howard keeps running this line in the last week. It is an extremely arrogant statement, it basically says “you may of decided your vote, but you are wrong”.
What have the Libs done for us lately?
Right on Pancho
I love wearing black!!
If the media run hard over the weekend with the rorts scandal + Abbott’s helpful WorkChoices admission, the next poll taken should be a doozie. This Morgan, and the next one or two polls, should complete the deflation of the Coalition’s spirits.
Will JWH try and break the “toy” before handing it back?
Looks like Morgan will release two ph polls on Sun, one a nationwide one, and the other a marginal seats poll. Should be interesting.
I’ve never said the Libs are bound to win. I just said I suspect they will just get over the line and pointed out this is not going off any objective evidence. I’ll be happy to be proved wrong.
Now again, have we seen a 56% Morgan for the ALP during a campaign over the past few elections?
NGK, working families have never been better off…sorry, I’ll stop being a moron.
Yes Darryl.. I think people underestimate the Joker effect. In this case, the joker is Tony Abbott
Ta tah for now! off to do pre polling in Bairnsdale… The sort of boring job Abbott would like everyone to have, & since it’s voluntary, he’d also approve of its low impact on wages.
It will be interesting to see what the final election result is, compared to these polls.
Good luck Gippslander
The polls look like they are flatening out.
[Now again, have we seen a 56% Morgan for the ALP during a campaign over the past few elections?]
Well, certainly not for 9 months straight before an election we havent. Until now…
LTEP: It’s almost as if you want a Coalition victory. Your negativity and criticism of Rudd is getting very tiresome.
“You people make me sick! You want to throw away 11 years of prosperity for a showoff? And union bosses? It’s your funeral…”
Umm… Pancho unless you live overseas it’s gunna be your funeral too mate.
I love this quote from George Megalogenis last night on 7:30 Report.
WHERE IS TIP??????????????
has his wife reported him missing?
WHERE IS HE?
A major new health annoucement from Rudd:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/16/2093065.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Harry H: Tip is furiously looking for a black hole in Labor’s costings, or more likely fabricating one LOL
HH: I bet he is studying the Treasury’s report about costings so far and he sees he is f*cked. What’s the bet Rudd is under or just on the ball, and Cossie is over. Surely he will have the spin doctors trying to work out what to say.
And by my reconing, because there’s an advertising blackout from Wednesday, the Coalition can use the only weapon it has left – scary advertisements about “UNION BOSSES!!!!” for 5 more days.
However, Labor, by using its money to purchase non-broadcast advertising (i.e. Tony Abbott) will be able to have stories in the media right up until 24 November.
Oh no Brian L!!!
Mark – heartland actually, border of Grayndler and Sydney. Pay no attention to me…
Where’s Glen? How does this poll grab ya, baby? And what reason are you going to throw up as to why it won’t apply in 8 days time?
Howard Hater, I could equally say some people’s cheerleading for Rudd is tiresome. I’m not party hack, not particularly fond of Rudd but will still vote Labor. I know plenty of people who feel the same way. My partner for one. The trick is we dislike Howard even more.
#32 Peter Hartcher in today’s SMH (it’ll make you feel better LETP) goes one step further, with his “chilling steadiness and deadly intent”. I just read the article twice, felt like watching the favourite scene from your por..sorry
Looks to me as thought the Brian Burke scandal has finally sunk in, they told me it would take a while to permeate.
Peter Hartcher’s comment in today’s SMH said it all really,
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/howards-instinct-let-him-down/2007/11/15/1194766868905.html
Howard needs to turn things around his huffing and puffing all year with election hand outs, tax cuts, smearing, govt advertising… this big bad wolf didn’t blow down Rudd’s house of bricks. The polls have flat lined for 12 months and will do so for another 7 days – given the recent scandals of Abbott and Pork Barrelling.
to you Lib supporters, you’ll go through the stages of denial, anger, frustration – and look into your hearts and ask yourselves under conditions as good as this “why do we face annihilation and our dear leader losing his seat”.
The answer, you need more Petro Giorgio’s and less Kevin Andrews…
[Looks to me as thought the Brian Burke scandal has finally sunk in, they told me it would take a while to permeate.]
Who’s “they”?
Given Morgan’s widely touted bias to Labor of about 2.5% that 56.5 becomes 54 and lines up with the Neilson. On both these findings it would seem that last weekend and through the LNP launch things solidified a very slightly for Howard. Nothing since then has gone right.
So, this weekend’s polls could be interesting. On the other hand previous experience would suggest final week histeria usually gets ignored (unless you’re up a gum tree and your name is Latham). So 54%ish on election day sounds the best bet.
Remembering always that 54% is huge, more than Hawkie in ’83. 55% is pretty much unimaginable in modern times. The only comparison would be Jack Curtin in ’43. 53% or 52.5% and a workable but unspectacular majority is still a most likely outcome.
As consistent as the poles … P. Jaques 100 n.o. in Hobart
LTEP, I have to agree with Howard Hater. You seem to be a bit of a broken record. The worth of forums like this is to pick up fresh perspectives on politics and share information that might offer new ways of looking at things.
You, on the other hand, are doing a very good impersonation of the Lieutenant Corporal Jack Jones character in the long-running British TV comedy ‘Dad’s Army’, who ran around waving his hands in the air shouting “We’re Doomed!”
You need a new angle mate. It’s getting a bit boring.
I thought that was the Swiss?
[Looks to me as thought the Brian Burke scandal has finally sunk in, they told me it would take a while to permeate.]
THe Libs would be stupid to run with it as it’s also hit the WA Libs via Anthony Fels and Noel Chricton-Brown (sp)’
Also there are internal liberal infighting in WA over the this as well.
Archer, Reynolds and McDonald have resigned from the ALP – LIb attack ads targetting them are of no use.
Its not over yet?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/one-week-from-oblivion/2007/11/15/1194766869599.html
One week left to save PM’s political skin
“JOHN HOWARD has a week to engineer a dramatic shift in voter sentiment or suffer defeat at the ballot box,”