Morgan: 55.5-44.5

Morgan has released two polls at once: its normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend (largely or entirely before the election announcement), and a phone poll conducted over the past two nights. The former had Labor’s lead at 57-43, down from 57.5-42.5 the previous week, while the latter has it at 55.5-44.5. The respective samples were 850 and 598. The more recent poll shows a 4.5 per cent increase in the combined minor party vote, which was down in both Galaxy and ACNielsen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

466 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

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  1. One has to at least admire Latham and Beazley for coming up with their own policies (for the most part) and they deserve credit for this unlike Mr Rudd…this is going to be a long election campaign indeed!

  2. I wonder what the reaction would have been if Labor had said:

    1) We will abolish the 30% private health insurance rebate
    2) We will end the CGT 50% rebate ; and

    3) we will have 2 scales straight away $20,000 tax free, 15% to $100,000 and 30% thereafter.

    I think Labor is so scared and befuddled of being different that they are scared of backing fairness openly and embracing opportunity for everybody else.

    Obviously there are no “maddies” left in Labor. Do any of you hacks wonder why the Liberals hated PJK? Because he is the only Labor politician of the modern era who had the brains to steal the Libs home turf.

  3. jesus…it has been a 10 month election campaign already. Another 5 weeks of the Yellow Smirk and the Toxic Rodent is going to be like cutting my lawn with scissors.

  4. 391 Centre

    I live in Greenway.

    There are too many conservatives with strong religious beliefs for the margin to be made up.

    Could be a swing on though…

  5. Frank Calabrese at post 255 writes:

    “Julie Bishop, Federal MP for Curtin, is being used by the Liberal Party as part of its campaign team to sway voters in marginal seats….”

    Whoa there, Frank. What’s she doing?

    Mesmerising the punters with them eyes?

    “You are getting sleepy…sleepy…sleepy…sleepy….You will listen to my voice…..You will vote Liberal…Liberal…Liberal…….”

    It’s a worry.

  6. Glen, the packages are different. So they both include tax cuts. You see, it’s all about ideas, innovation and a vision for the future.Not tax cuts that are boring, old, predictable and simplistic. Like Howard.

  7. Hey Evan thats only if you look directly into Julie Bishop’s eyes she’s not that Mesmerising in that sense but she is the most senior WA Federal politician now of any side so she is a force to be reckoned with in politics she will be a great asset to Keenan and Henry good luck to them both!

  8. I’m always amazed when people think the betting markets have any great insight . They don’t, they follow the polls, not vice versa.

    All up a pretty good week for labor. They have absorbed the govts biggest hit of the entire campaign in week one and should consolidate from here.
    Watch for Rudd to clean up Howard in the debate and generate some real momentum for the following week.

  9. Centre 407

    Have you heard something (internal poll etc)? I would think that there is no way in hell any seat with the Hawkesbury in it would be anything except Tory…..

  10. Sir Eggo, what got me suspicious is the fact that those posters of Markus have been up for ages therefore she may be in some trouble. Also she is appearing a lot with Howard when he makes an announcement. It could be a bad sign for her.

    I went for a jog last weekend and God did I feel like ripping her face to shreads. lol

  11. I’m fresh on tonight, and I just took a scroll through the early posts, way, way, way back in the 40s, and how about Isabella and Tabitha? What a scream; such lovely ‘feminine’ personas. But here’s what I imagine – A couple (maybe just one?) of balding, fat, hairy, very male conservatives sitting around in nothing but their Reg Grundies, bug eyed and scratching their psoriasis, blogging their little brains out trying to shift the narrative. Good luck losers, you are going to need it! (ps nice call Leinad @ 43)

  12. Scuz e moi, again William.

    Delroy. What the Papers Say.

    Mike Kelly. No regrets in military role over slaughtered warlord, 1993.

    Canberra Times. Kelly. Evil. Bloodthirsty.

  13. assessment of week one

    I said when the election was announced that if the Coalition didn’t get a 2% bounce in the first week they were dead, and that if they did get a 2% bounce they would still be alive. (Go and look it up, it’s there somewhere.) Well, they did get a 2% bounce, so they are still alive. But to get that they had to fire their one big gun right at the start of the campaign. Tax cuts are always at the centre of conservative election campaigns. Putting more money in the pockets of the middle class is their one Big Idea. So they spent $34bn for a 2% bounce. But now they have to sustain that momentum for another five weeks, to get and then hold the 4% swing they still need to win.

    How are they going to do that? They don’t have anything else to offer, except more pork, which has no effect, more personal smears of Rudd and Gillard, which don’t work, and more banging on about union bosses, which no-one cares tuppence about. Rudd has now put out his tax policy, which should be enough to hold the line at 55% or so in the next Newspoll. Unless Howard is going to declare war on someone, I don’t see what else he can offer to close the gap further. (Except repeal WorkChoices, of course, but he’s not going to do that.)

    So I actually call week one as a draw. The Libs fired their big gun, they got some reward, Rudd countered. Labor has now weathered the biggest election bribe the Libs can offer. Unless they do something dumb, they should now hold their lead.

    Next comes Sunday night’s debate. Howard needs a big win, whereas a draw will do for Rudd. I can’t see Howard getting the win he needs. His lines are too predictable, his brand too shopworn. That’s why he has insisted on only one debate, and early in the campaign so he has time to recover from getting towelled.

  14. Could be right Centre…..

    Anyway my take on the first week is as follows.

    Liberals have won the week, only because Labor hardly did anything. But, in the long run, this may not be significant for the following reasons (someone speak up if these assumptions are wrong)

    1. Labor and the ACTU have a large warchest for the campaign, and have not used hardly any of it yet. Whereas the Libs have used up some of their limited resources.

    2. We haven’t seen the Labor negative campaign yet. OK, so Labor say scare are campaigns are bad, but it’s politics, and we all know they will do it. They could score points about Workchoices, Costello, Interest Rates, It’s Time…… it seems as they have worked before this year

    3. A possible interest rate rise (the economists forecast a high inflation figure, thus leading to certain hike… if they are right), how many percent will the ALP get out of that?

    4. Governments don’t usually make up that much ground in a campaign (I said usually, there have been exceptions)

    5. The ALP tax policy will somewhat, if not totally neutralise the Libs Policy (but will the me too stuff resonate with voters? Either way?)

    My only concern is that Labor don’t leave it to late to launch into the Libs, thus letting the Libs have too bigger head of steam

    Overall I still think Labor will win at this stage. The potential is there for this to be the closest that the Libs will get in the campaign, however I doubt it. I really hope the ALP know what they are doing, otherwise they will throw it away.

    And my prediction for Greenway is for Markus to be returned with a reduced margin (as much as I don’t want it)

  15. William, I realise my earlier post may never get out of moderation (and I don’t blame you), but in the spirit of temperance, are Isabella an Tabitha really Alexander Downer and Joe Hockey?

  16. Who among the great electorate is really going to watch the R/R debate except people who have made up their minds already? Howard’s sad sycophants are on the panel to help him get some negative sound bite against Rudd.

    According to the AC Neilsen the Tax Cut was not the reason for the ‘narrowing’, only 15% were interested in them. The ‘narrowing’ happened because of the election being called.

    This is useful distinction as it means Howard probably didn’t much at all out of the Tax Cut and thus is unlikely to get too much from other policies.

    The election was called, people lined up behind the prospective parties. AND thats where we are – fighting over the apparently 8% who are still unsure voters.

  17. I wonder, out of sheer desperation, if Howard will call for additional debates late in the campaign. Hard to see I know but if things go pear shaped for a week or two it could happen.
    Just a feeling in my water about this.

  18. It’s difficult to follow an election in OZ from the UK. All you have is newsites, blogs, youtube, and party political sites to go on. All second hand information!

    What I think, though, is that in these days of partisan dealignment an electoral whitewash – one way or the other – is more likely than a close call. In fact, close calls only seem to happen when a desperate government can manufacture one through a marginal seats strategy – Hawke in 1990 Howard in 1998 (versus 83 84 87 93 96 01 04) . It’s got to be a key single issue to attract a specific kind of voter, or creating enough ‘white noise’ to turn the electorate of politics altogether, thereby leading to a voting tendency towards the mean (the status quo)

    I see no evidence of a marginal seat strategy in the coalition activities so far, the big policies – tax cuts and union busting seem directed at core voters, and polarise voters rather than depoliticise them (the white noise option). Either way, a close election doesn’t seem to be on the cards based on the campaigning strategy of the incumbent. It’s more an all or nothing approach, which in most cases seems to wrk given the inherent conservatism of the electorate (in the procedural rather than substantive sense). Of course, 4 weeks is a long time and this could change. But so far, a big swing one way or the other – a handsome win for the government or a sweeping into office of the opposition seems the more likely pattern to emerge from all this.

    Again, I’m far away, but in the past, Howard HAS achieved exactly the kind of victory many times, and the ALP has held healthy poll leads which evaporated.

    I guess the key difference is in the ALP primary vote which like Burke (82?) and Hawke 83 provided the backdrop for an extended period in office of the ALP. Of course, I’m biased into optimism that Howard will go, but perhaps there’s something in all this

  19. Kina.

    As repulsive as it will be, having to watch an even larger bite of the Great Man, in the Great Hall, I will watch. The moderator and assembled panel is likely to be equally repulsive.

    And I will encourage the littlies to watch.

    We can record important other idol stuff, after all.

    The use of the Great Hall is yet another APEC like endeavour. Trappings. In hope.

  20. Adam, like Gary Bruce I mostly agree with your summation, but I’m interested in a couple of things:

    1. Did Howard really spend $34bn on his tax package? It stretches over a long time into the future and I wonder how much of his current war chest has actually been used.

    2. If the answer is – not as much as it looks – could he still have a sizeable amount to throw at other things. In other words some more rabbits out of the hat?

    My biggest recollection of the 2004 election was the breathtaking amounts he kept finding right through the campaign – tens of billions.

    As you can tell, I am no economist but I would be interested in your views on this.

  21. Edward, we know you want Rudd to “do a Latham” and offer wild Whitlamesque schemes that will frighten the punters and send them back to Grandpa. It’s not going to happen. The Pixie is too smart for that. Centrism with a human face is what he’s offering, and the punters like it. Grandpa’s going to have to win this on his own without help from us, OK?

  22. It seems the Labor troops on this blog have rallied from last nights panic.

    Good week for JWH, poor week for KR.

    Labor doesnt get the union stuff, its not going to make people think of 1974 unionism it is about showing what an apparatchik party Labor is. Labor cant counter this argument.

    I think it is foolish not to counter it. You will see this will pivot soon to moving from 70% union to union people will stuff the economy. I didnt think the 2PP would come down but the negatives went up for Rudd which is worse for Labor and has come down over the last 3 polls. Eventually the Liberal ad campaign will if uncountered eat into this rating as it has already started to do.

    I still think Labor is in front but I see about a 30% chance of a real heartbreaker for the ALP. Will JWH call it the sweetest victory of all? That would be too cruel.

  23. Edward, get it into your head: no-one gives a flying f*ck whether Labor is an “apparatchik party” or not, and Labor isn’t going to spend one dollar countering this “argument,” which is a figment of yours and Joe Hockey’s imagination.

  24. Darn, as I said, it really doesn’t matter how much Howard has to spend, or says he has. These billions and trillions and zillions for this and that just wash over people’s heads. More pork. Zzzzz. There are only two things that Howard can promise that will actually shift votes. The first is to cut taxes, which he has done, and got his 2% bounce for it. The second is to repeal WorkChoices, which he won’t do. So now he is stuck. How to get the other 4% he needs? There is no rabbit in the hat. Rudd is ahead so that’s not his problem. All he has to do is avoid mistakes.

  25. Edward 435
    St John is a desolate, windswept mistake on the eastern seaboard of Canada. Life is cold and a little bit thick in St John, and every thing smells like herring. It’s your home Edward, go home, Edward, it’s your home, go…..

  26. Arbie Jay @ 353

    Totally agree – was just adding to the Castle quotes On the previous post – it seemed appropriate, I could totally see Dennis Denuto saying that sentence in court infront of Robyn Nevin. If only crispydog had said it was about Mabo too!

    But yes Howard must go. Its about time a fear campaign failed – we should be numb to them by now.

  27. Yes the “hoons and graffiti” strategy which they are pursuing all over the country really is a sign of desperation. Rita Bouras in Hindmarsh is apparently campaigning on cracks in the footpaths. Er, it’s a federal election, Rita, katalavenis?

    I leave you all for tonight with this memorable image:

  28. “Of those polled, 53 per cent said the tax cuts would not change their vote, while 32 per cent said their vote probably would not change. But a crucial 8 per cent, enough to swing the election, said they probably would change their vote. These swingers were divided evenly between Labor and Liberal voters.”

    Does this make sense – 8% say they would change their vote – and they are divided evenly between Labor and Liberal voters. They seem to be saying that 4% of Liberal voters are considering to vote Labor because of the Tax cuts and visa versa??? A Draw?

    It still appears to me the change in the vote was caused by the calling of the election. And the tax cut may be a non-event. Which indicates future policies might not make any difference to Howard’s position.

  29. Adam, just observed your post.

    Opened my only recording of the interview, on the laptop, which will not jump start. Lovely technology, when it works!

    So, cannot quote.

    In short, the broad, as intimated.

    Kroger was saying Labor copycat, Cameron was saying Labor would choose no other path. Can quote this bit, though, from intro, which did record.

    MK: Remember this, that the original artist will always sell more records than the cover band, and so JH is going to get credit for the tax policy, and I don’t think Labor will.

    RC: Labor had no choice but to match what JH had done, it would be political suicide for Labor to have done anything else, if Labor had introduced a radical reform in the tax scheme, there would have been losers, and the rest of the campaign, we would have been dealing entirely with the bleatings of the losers, and they would have smothered completely the cheers from the winners.

    Cameron did not say, though one could hear, what that has meant in the past.

  30. Rod Cameron was noticeably nervous during that interview with Trioli. His visage was covered in perspiration.

    Could it be that the ALP was indeed caught flat-footed? Hmmm….

  31. Downer this morning tried to beat up the Pakistan tragedy as being El Quaeda- turns out it was most likely Pakistan Intelligence Operatives, according to reports now coming out of Pakistan.

    Not heard from Downer since on the subject.

    Sorry Dolly, your Tampa will have to wait a little longer to appear.

    (Unpridictable enough comment, Adam?)

  32. I think that as soon as the debate on Sunday is over, the PM should announce a second one – between Peter Costello and that Swan clown. That would be a sight to behold.

  33. Swan, who actually studied and understands economics, would make Costello look like a clown. Remember, Costello only weeks ago did not know how the basic tax scales were applied, after 11 years as Treasurer. His specialty is to ape what words Treasury put into his mouth. It would be an embarrassment for him.

  34. The Asians of Bennelong know Howard pretty well:

    “ndeed, some Chinese-Australian professionals have formed a Maxine Support Group, partly because of John Howard’s reticence on the immigration question when Pauline Hanson harnessed nativistic anxieties to propel her political rise in the late 1980s.

    Others, though, have been beneficiaries of Australia’s economic boom, and are culturally unused to changes in government.

    “Look at what he has done for the past 11 years for the economy,” says Danny Ng. “Everyone is better off.”

    “He’s too old and he’s a liar,” says another man. “He’s untrustworthy and tricky. I want him gone. He took us into Iraq.”

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