Morgan: 55.5-44.5

Morgan has released two polls at once: its normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend (largely or entirely before the election announcement), and a phone poll conducted over the past two nights. The former had Labor’s lead at 57-43, down from 57.5-42.5 the previous week, while the latter has it at 55.5-44.5. The respective samples were 850 and 598. The more recent poll shows a 4.5 per cent increase in the combined minor party vote, which was down in both Galaxy and ACNielsen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

466 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

  1. I think the hype of “game on” for Howard is looking silly already.

    BTW I am retiring Dinsdale. I am bored with him.

  2. 359
    adrian Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 11:11 pm
    Generic Person, I don’t think you quite understand the implications for our democracy of a heavily partisan media. At the very least we should exect the ABC to be reasonably impartial and it has shown itself to be anything but.

    Kerry O’Brien is the lone soldier there 🙂

  3. Regarding the story about hoons and the Libs which appeared in the SMH this morning ……

    “The money will go to Penrith City Council to be spent on a series of closed circuit cameras on roads popular with street racers. All of this will happen in Lindsay, the marginal seat held by the Liberal Party by 2.9 per cent, and one that Labor has a good chance of snaring.

    But Mr Howard denied that the announcement was election pork-barrelling.”

    HUH?????? If it *ISN’T* then why the h*** didn’t he do this earlier on in the year when the Howles were killed? Don’t live in Lindsay but I am sure that the voters there will see this for what it really is. Take the money and run, run very fast and straight to pick up a Labor HTV card.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/pm-calls-tune-on-stopping-hoons/2007/10/19/1192301045585.html

  4. You know Adam for a so called “expert” you really do talk a whole load of crap. Your deluded if you call the first week a draw. As is everyone else who thinks Howard has no more big announcements to make.

  5. For what its worth I think Rudd got creamed in week one. I agree with Michael Kroger’s assessment last night that he wasted an opportunity to to offer an alternative Government to the electorate and choked on it.

    There is an argument that a small target, centrist approach will be enough to get Labor over the line, reliant on Workchoices and stale JWH themes. But last night Kroger got it right I think- Labor has to offer more than that to win.

    I realise Rudd does not want to ‘scare the horses’ and not giving the tax cuts would have been political suicide, to a degree. But my wife, who is no political tragic, made a salient point when she said something like….

    Well, what the … is Government for then if they will not govern ?..I mean, a major reason why they have a frikkin 34 Billion dollar surplus is because they have either cut spending or not increase spending on important things the Government is supposed to govern and take responsibilility for, education, health , infrastructure, supporting people who can not work.I would have taken half of that 34BILLION and announced massive increases in funding to health, education, infrastructure and climate change and told the electorate you only have HALF of of the income tax JWH promised…people dont mind you taking taxes if you make it clear (a) that it is needed and (b) exactly what you are going to spend it on and why..

    Her rant, which I agree with in principle, is probably shared by a good many Aussie women in this country.

    What I totally agree with is her veiw that Rudd, thus far, is way too full of me-too-but policies and his New Leadership isnt taking us anywhere except a repeal of Workchoices and the joy of saying goodbye to JWH. If that is all Rudd has to say to the electorate, JWH WILL make up that 5 % he needs to pull back by election day and Labor will only have itself to blame for saying Workchoices, old man, and then sitting on their hands.

    Week One definitely went to the Coalition and pulled back, it appears, 2 percent. If Rudd has no more canon balls to fire, and soon, we are screwed folks. Damn it.

  6. Bluebottle at 457

    Whilst I share to the enth degree your and Ms Bluebottle’s sentiment, I think the suicide not pact is pivotal.

    Kevin will have ample opportunity in Government to fulfil our wishes.

    He equally will have ample time in Opposition to refine them.

    Tough call? Not really.

  7. Unfortunately, I have to agree that the Liberal Party won week one, I think that is not surprising given the free kick Howard was given in the media. Everything Rudd said and did was either ignored or criticised, whereas everything Howard did was lauded. Even his Grumpy Old Man routine quickly sank, even though people at work were still talking about it days after the MSM had let it drop.

    All in all, not a good week for Labor, but the poll results are probably good given all that happened. However, with this tax announcement and what I believe will be a win in the debate, Labor’s fortunes will be right back on track at this time next week.

    Election night prediction: Labor to pick up 25 seats.

  8. But Kroger was terribly disappointed that Kevin did not walk into the exact trap the Libs were hoping for.

    All dressed up with high mindedness, as long as it’s only Labor being principled.

    And dead.

  9. Where is the Morgan Poll reported?

    It does not seem to be a bad result for Labor – it is not receiving the screaming headlines that Galaxy produced.

  10. All these clowns saying that Labor missed an opportunity to be an ‘alternative’ government with their tax plan should stfu. Labor doesn’t need to… they have been ahead by 10 points in the polls for 10 MONTHS!!! They already are being seen as the alternative. Idiots.

  11. some Chinese-Australian professionals have formed a Maxine Support Group, partly because of John Howard’s reticence on the immigration question when Pauline Hanson harnessed nativistic anxieties

    There is nothing reticent about Howard’s racism. Its been on full display for decades. The main reason Hanson is a spent political force is that JWH took over her ground and then moved it even further to the right.

  12. 462
    Dario Says:
    October 20th, 2007 at 10:20 am
    All these clowns saying that Labor missed an opportunity to be an ‘alternative’ government with their tax plan should stfu. Labor doesn’t need to… they have been ahead by 10 points in the polls for 10 MONTHS!!! They already are being seen as the alternative. Idiots.

    That 10 points you are talking about Dario is now down to 8ish- I have a strong beleif Rudd should and will probably win; but he needs to get back in the drivers seat again mate: simple as that.

  13. So if I’ve got this right, the Coalition has whittled 2% from Labor’s TPP lead in the first week. A week which, objectively, LNP won, on account of bringing out their big gun tax policy (somewhat blunted by Labor’s response policy) and the commencement of their union-connection advertising scare. I’d figure into the LNP’s good week too, Howard’s oft vaunted call-the-election bounce. Alongside that, Labor’s first week was unspectacular: the tortoise and the hare approach maybe?

    Supposing a uniform 2% rise for the Coalition in each remaining week of the campaign (and no rise for Labor), that brings the parties to roughly equal on polling day. This assumes Labor entered the campaign with a 10 point lead, which is the minimum lead any of the pollsters had them on, on the day the election was called. Labor has not led by less than 10% for many months, their lead has been up to 18% and quite stable within that band during the months before election.

    We can expect to see more and different scares from the LNP in coming weeks. I am tipping we will see ads warning of the “risk” of wall-to-wall Labor, for example. On the other hand, Labor are yet to roll out their scares: WorkChoices, nuclear reactors, Costello as PM. It is a complex mix: Voter complacency must be taken into account, the effect of the business defense of IR (are their ads still running?), hostile media etc, the resilience of Labor’s lead to date.

    Taking the above into account – and daring not be too optimistic – I predict a tight one. Labor by two seats. The Rodent to hold Bennelong, but narrowly

    (Sorry for the long post)

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