ACNielsen: 54-46

As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.

Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “ACNielsen: 54-46”

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  1. 799
    Centre Says:
    October 19th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
    Laurie Oakes’ political report on channel 9 news tonight was a horror negative piece of reporting. Rudd is being accused of me-too-ism and not being able to deliver his own tax package.

    If anybody wants to organise a riot over media bias, I’M IN.

    Probably Laurie just whining because he won’t get anything out of Rudd’s plan. He doesn’t look like he has kids still at home and I am sure that Channel 9 pays him well enough so that he doesn’t get FTB A 🙂

  2. Julie

    Anymore on Hockey and Bailey, had a look on Sky site and saw podcasts but does not look like they post it there.

    From what I have heard Bailey has been getting stuck into the local electorate, doorknocking and finding their concerns whilst Hockey has been getting stuck into the “pork pies”.

    It would not surprise me to see Hockey lose, pity they don’t do more of these debates at a local level and show them on local TV or even ABC 2, where more can see them.

  3. Theres a video on youtube of Howard trying to bowl in cricket and throwing a wobbley TWICE.

    Maybe we should post it here time and time again and point out how useless Howard is at cricket.

    How low you Lib Lackeys wanna take the smears?

  4. Arbie, I’ve been looking for something on it too.

    Something about some political debates only being available if you pay Rupert some bucks sticks in my craw a touch….

  5. Apparently Rudd cleaned Laurie Oakes house as a student job when he was at Uni.

    Maybe Oakes is just ensuring the hired help don’t rise above their station.

  6. Lom

    The televised debates bring back the old campaging when you could see what you were getting, pity not all can see it.

  7. 802,

    Arbie, I really don’t have any more to add upon what others have already said. However, we get emails in this house from Mike Bailey’s campaign so if anything turns up with a nice juicey link to coverage of the debate or similar, it will get posted :). I don’t live that electorate but just want to stay “informed” 🙂

  8. 799
    In fairness Laurie Oakes has been pretty even-handed this year on Sunday. Maybe its just his opinion. The Tax policy was a strategic political response and not ideological.

  9. Go to Sky News website and have a vote. “Whose tax plan do you prefer?”. Very narrowly to Labor at the moment ….. (theirs is keyed with cookies though so you need to undo that however you do it if you want to add your vote more than once)

  10. Good one, Laurie. Yeah, Labor’s ramshackle, poorly announced tax policy will die a quick death. And, gee, Krudd doesn’t present well at all. The lip-licking, the sing-song delivery, the karate chops, the weird tapping of the laptop – he’s just a bundle of deeply irritating tics, isn’t he?

  11. I originally switched to Labor for two reasons; couldn’t stomach Howard and Costello and their reliance on divisiveness and secondly the loony nutter infiltration of the Libs.

    Didn’t really know that much about Rudd but am really starting to warm to the guy now. Rudd presents himself as a great leader, calm, cool, intelligent, respectful and forward looking.

    Makes a pleasant change from the mendacious bile and opportunistic wedge politicking that Howard and Tip rely on.

    K Rudd has class.

  12. 812 Thanks Julie,

    Bailey intrigues me, he and Garrett will make a good pairing in a labor government.

    Greensborough Growler

    Rudd also worked as a cleaner at Campbelltown? Hospital for six months, when he attended a refurbishment recently he said he knew every inch of the floors as he had personally cleaned them.

    Could be another reason why he gets on the libs nerves, can’t have a former cleaner as PM wot?

  13. [Howard wants to give every kid a “wireless”.]

    Make that a Crystel one so every kiddie can listen to the ABC’s Synthetic Broadcasts of Bradman beating those poms in the Mother Country 🙂

  14. Arbie et al,

    This doesn’t include specific information on how to source feed for today’s debate, but if anyone in North Sydney wants to meet up with Mike Bailey, here is his schedule for the next week. I should be able to get similar updates going forward too.

    He will be door knocking in these neighborhoods next week –

    Monday 22nd October – Gladesville
    Tuesday 23rd October – Lane Cove
    Wednesday 24th October – Boronia Park
    Thursday 25th October – Gladesville
    Friday 26th October – Gladesville

    This is his plan for this weekend –

    Saturday 20th October – Walk through North-side Produce Markets, Civic Park North Sydney (Meet outside council chambers) – 8am to 9am

    Lane Cove Plaza 9:30am to 1pm (meet outside the ANZ Bank in the Plaza)

    Willoughby Stall 10:30am to 12:30pm – High Street Shops (meet corner of McClelland and High St. Willoughby)

    Sunday 21st October – Crows Nest Fair – All Day – 8am to 9am the biggest day of the year in Crows Nest.

    Blog entry with more information about Bailey –

    [I live in Werriwa but Chris Hayes doesn’t need help, his seat is safe]

  15. 405 Judy [warning: irrelevant trivia]

    Hey there, Judy. Noticed your reference to having a bit of the GF goalpost when Westies had a free after the siren … and hit the post!

    Geez, that set me thinking. Jimmy Wright, 1954? I was there that day, though only a kid with Dad. My memory’s a bit vague now, but it was a great game. West were well on top before halftime when Brian Faeshe flattened Davey Boyd. Led to a bit of angry pushing and shoving, when “Boof” A’Court suddenly threw the ball into Kevin Stevens’ face. That led to a real brawl, and Fos Williams always said that ignited Port for the second half. Still remember that fairly straight-in-front kick. I was hoping it’d go through. I was a North supporter but everyone who wasn’t Port was barracking for West that day.

    Let’s hope the memories are a bit better after 24th November. I think they will be.

  16. Just back on Rudd’s tax announcement, PM tonight had any number of economists flailing both sides for their profligacy.
    Funny though, that they waited until now to voice their concerns.
    Seems like the Coalition announcement on Monday didn’t warrant it – but now Labor’s involved??? wtf

  17. Oh well. In a couple of weeks a sixth consecutive fire will rip through the last of Team Rodent’s munitions, leaving the bunker completely exposed.

  18. #675

    Buried in an avalanche of posts but I believe your question about quantifying the Labor policy as 91.5% the same as the coalition’s?

    I think you’ll find that (rounded off), the Labor proposal is 31 billion in tax cuts, whilst the coalition’s (rounded) is 34 billion. 31/34, close enough to 91.5%

    However, I think Costello must be a little tired this week. He had a golden opportunity for a comeback when asked on Tuesday to comment on Kevin Rudd’s delay on releasing the Labor Tax policy, what he SHOULD have said was:

    “I can’t really see what Mr Rudd’s delay in releasing the ALP tax policy is, it has been sitting there on the Liberal Party website since lunchtime…”

    I think Rudd may have overdone the “sailing close to the leader” thing a little lately. He runs the risk of voters seeing it as a hollow strategy and riding the coat-tails of the coalition. Mind you, the coalition is still in need of clear plans for the future that a voter can cite.

  19. Good to hear Mike’s going well and working hard Julie. I live across the road (literally) in Macarthur. Wish Mike was standing out here actually, he’s a life long Magpies man (sure he has a soft spot for the Bears though Norths folks), and Farmer is about the biggest myth ever. Chris Hayes will get over 65% TPP easy, but it looks like we’ll have Pat achieving even less than nothing for the area for another three years.

  20. I admit I would have like Rudd to take the gamble of reducing the tax cuts and diverting more into infrastructure but unfortunately he had no choice other than to neutralise it. Sadly that says more about the greed and short sighted view of the electorate and it’s willingness to be bought than about either political party.

  21. Steven Kaye @ 716

    What? Costello actually said “if he gets in Howard and Costello won’t be there”? So he’s finally identified Rudd’s strongest point 🙂

  22. bryce 824

    Got rid of the kids. Even looks like Glen is in bed.

    Listened to and watched recorded stuff.

    Amazing really, that the guardians are silent one day, incensed the next.

  23. Delroy. What the Papers Say.

    Mike Kelly. No regrets in military role over slaughtered warlord, 1993.

    Canberra Times. Kelly. Evil. Bloodthirsty.

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