Morgan: 55.5-44.5

Morgan has released two polls at once: its normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend (largely or entirely before the election announcement), and a phone poll conducted over the past two nights. The former had Labor’s lead at 57-43, down from 57.5-42.5 the previous week, while the latter has it at 55.5-44.5. The respective samples were 850 and 598. The more recent poll shows a 4.5 per cent increase in the combined minor party vote, which was down in both Galaxy and ACNielsen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

466 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

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  1. I am guessing that the tax policy is only half the story – the other bits being the fact the ALP doesn’t seem to be running a full campaign yet, and all the Coalition negative ads. Maybe Labor were expecting a 33 day campaign, but whatever it is, they better get cracking.

  2. We’re going to see a lot of “did the earth move for you too?” premature ejaculation before Nov. 24.

    The only poll that counts is the one that one wouldn’t touch with the time-honoured 20 foot barge version.

  3. Oh! sorry Mark, I was thinking the Morgan wouldn’t really make them loose much sleep (although it’s not great for them).

    Hopefully this tax announcement gives the ALP the momentum to start rolling. An ad campaign might help on how they plan to revolutionise the tax system.

  4. 10: Indeed. I’m getting sick of this focus on working families. Why is the pork not raining down on the rest of us!

    ALP Tax policy seems a bit complex. Will be difficult to sell.

  5. 13 What nonsense. It seems like there is a concerted campaign being run by the tories to say singles miss out. This is not true and how might Iask will anyone be any better of under the Tory scheme?

  6. You are only neglected if you earn over 180K.

    Children are expensive, no matter what the govt does, you are better off without them financially ๐Ÿ™‚

  7. It’s a great plan, matches the tax cuts for all those up to 180K and redirects the money from above 180K back to families for education where it’s more needed. No one below 180k a year misses out.

  8. That information about broader reform was not in the early reports…Which is half the problem. People will just see it as tax cuts for people with kids the way it is currently being spun by the media.

  9. Don’t worry, Misty, I’m sure Krudd’s sycophants at the ABC and Fairfax will do their level best to get the message across.

  10. I have a little issue with this Morgan..

    The Greens Labor preferencing is 95.5%. The highest I’ve ever seen.

    I can’t remember the 2004 Greens to Labor figure but I know it was less than that.

    My issue is: how can the “Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” and “Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election” produce the same 2PP figure when there is such a large disparity between the greens preferencing ?

    Maybe I’m missing something obvious here, someone correct me.

  11. I would question the wisdom of announcing a policy like this late on Friday afternoon too. What are they thinking? Surely tomorrow or Saturday would have been better?

  12. [I would question the wisdom of announcing a policy like this late on Friday afternoon too. What are they thinking? Surely tomorrow or Saturday would have been better?]

    I think it’s great because it will be the lead story in the Saturday Press which is more widely read because of the Real Estate section etc. Also, it is the time when Newspoll does it’s poling so it’s fresh in the minds of voting – take Nielson earlier this week re Howard’s Tax Announcement for example.

  13. I’m not that surprised, in light of today’s polls and the debate on Sunday. It gets him in the Saturday papers, gets it out there before the debate, and gives him a chance to bump the Liberals out of the news at a politically useful time.

  14. *tomorrow or Sunday in the post above. ๐Ÿ™‚

    That is a good point re: Saturday papers, presuming people still read the dead tree version these days!

  15. What a laugh – Rudd’s policy has no costings, a half-baked timeframe and is filled with nothing more than meaningless platitudes about education.

    And that’s the best you’ve got?

    What a wasted opportunity by Labor. Probably too busy taking their orders from obese trade union officials.

  16. Well, well – hey Tabby, why don’t you do us a proper Haiku. Current efforts are ordinary.

    Liberal: Go for Greed

  17. Today is a day of High Troll Alert on this blog. You have been warned.

    I thought it was a masterstroke – tying education and health to the ALP tax policy. I sincerely hope the voting public sees it that way. I personally think it satisfies what people have been saying about the Liberal version – should have been spent on services. Labor have done that, as well as delivered on Tax Reform. I hope this goes down well, so that they can then focus on running hard on the anti-workchoices campaign.

  18. Isabella please, its the Liberal policy with a very small change to do with those over 180,000 and education deductions, its as fully costed as the Liberal policy they copied.

    What I think is going to be interesting is Labor’s claim that their tax policy won’t overheat the economy like the Liberals will, I can’t see that Labor’s policy is so different that they can claim such miracles from it compared to the Lib’s.

    It will be interesting to see how the msm play this, do they take Labor’s line about putting education first and how their tax policy is safer then the Libs.

  19. Yep, now I’m convinced Rudd has done the right thing re tax. We have Isabella and Tabitha on board. The Libs are worried.

  20. Tabitha says:

    Labor is for union control
    Liberal is for personal freedom

    Tell that to the aboriginals in the NT Tabitha.

    Now back to your room before I wiggle my nose and turn you into a chimp.

  21. tabitha, wishout wishing to be rude, i really think you ought to get out more, flex your neurons a bit. you sound pretty young and unformed.

  22. Really, save your arguments for better trolls than the Twisted Sisters, I suspect they’re random slogan-generating algorithms. Glen and co. at least pretend to have an argument.

  23. The problem with Rudds plan is that it takes from those over $180,000 but it doesn’t give to any household that doesn’t get family tax benefit A

    From the ABS in 2006 there were
    2 million non family households
    1 million family households earning $2,000 per week (not qualifying for part A)
    3 million family households earning less than $2,000

    So, it makes no difference to 2 million who will think it is “Me to”, the low income amongst them might even feel peeved that they didn’t get something.

  24. Hey Tabby (& Issy) – welcome back. I was missing the laughter!

    BTW – just a hint – try to space out your comments a bit. You know, at least 30 minutes between them – otherwise people will think you are the same.

    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  25. Ifonly at 44 – it does give people without children (like me) something – we get tax cuts, as we did under the coalition plan. However, now there is something extra for people with children.

    Also everyone is going to benefit (but hopefully not personally having to need the service) with reducing hopsital waiting times.

    The ALP has been a little more audacious than the coalition by reducing the number of rates to 3. This can only go over well in the economic – financial press.

  26. Can anyone please tell me when we are going to see some seat specific polling data?
    These national 2pp trends are just not doing it for me at the moment.

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