Morgan: 55.5-44.5

Morgan has released two polls at once: its normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend (largely or entirely before the election announcement), and a phone poll conducted over the past two nights. The former had Labor’s lead at 57-43, down from 57.5-42.5 the previous week, while the latter has it at 55.5-44.5. The respective samples were 850 and 598. The more recent poll shows a 4.5 per cent increase in the combined minor party vote, which was down in both Galaxy and ACNielsen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

466 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

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  1. Regarding Costello’s criticism of Labor’s announcement reported in the SMH (that labor’s plan was only 8.5% its own work and 91.5% a copy of the coalition’s plan):

    Rudd should ask on Sunday what percentage of the coalition’s plan released on Monday was its own work, and what percentage of it was prepared by Treasury officials at public expense?

  2. Bugger the political realities of this! Would have been nice to see more on education and infrastructure than tax cuts.

    Still, seems that they have matched or bettered the LNP bribe to anyone who is going to vote for them anyway so pretty much neutralizing tax policy as an issue.

    The Education tax refund will go down really well with a lot of people, particularly as it can be used on one or both parents incomes depending on their income levels.

    The hospital funding sounds good, but i think it would have been better to make the tax cuts smaller and increase this.

    Seems that as well as making the policy fractionally cheaper in absolute terms, the ALP is spreading the tax cuts out more over time and that will help to reduce the impact on inflation / interest rates.

    KR will take a hammering on the “Me Too” front for this, although i don’t think that matters to anyone but the rusted on Libs. And he has the rest of the campaign to differentiate himself and the ALP in other areas.

    He really doesn’t seem phased by the me too attacks. Will be interesting if thats what Rattus hammers during the debate, while Rudd talks about things that actually mean something.

  3. The tax policy is good, brings Australia into the modern age especially with the rebates on computers and education.

    I have a daughter in high school who uses her lap top for classes and daughter in primary who shares our main computer.

    Couple this with the broadband rollout of labor and we are really giving our kids a world class education.

    Howard and co are still stuck in the old days, they have blocked any access to broadbrand and the widening of computer usuage which has held back Australia.

  4. Am I the only one disappointed by Labor’s tax policy?

    I understand why Rudd had to ‘metoo’ the emotive issues Howard has been trying to wedge him on, but the tax policy was one area where Labor could have differentiated itself from the government by outlining a vision for the future on health, education, climate change, water, infrastructure, etc, financed by most of the $34 billion.

    There are any number of surveys showing people understand that under Howard we’ve had 11 wasted years and that we need to address these issues and a willingness to forgo tax cuts to do so. But it seems all we’re going to get from both sides is more of the same ol’ wasting of the resource boom windfall on ‘a cup of coffee and a ham sandwich’ tax cuts.

    I wonder how many people are now thinking that if Labor isn’t going to do it any different, except at the margins, then why bother putting them in?

    I didn’t expect Rudd to be another Whitlam, Hawke or Keating, but I had hoped some of their far sightedness may have rubbed off. However, it looks like he’s picked up mostly the lint of Howard’s small minded mediocrity.

  5. Mayo it’s because Rudd sensibly realises that no matter what people tell pollsters they’d rather the money in their wallets than infrastructure spending. They say it because it sounds nice, but really want the money for themselves.

    Do you seriously think Labor wouldn’t be different in government than the Coalition? Honestly?

    If Rudd had rejected any idea of tax cuts he’d have gone down like a lead balloon.

  6. Did anyone watch the Joe Hockey vs Mike Bailey debate on Agenda? Bailey was very impressive, I think I can see why Joe’s apparently in trouble.

  7. Speaker, Where did you get the Greens preferences being 95% ALP. Taking the usual rule of thumb preference distribution of the Greens being 80% to ALP, I came out at 55 – 55.5% ALP 2pp.

  8. Mayo

    People need the tax cuts to help them survive, there have been quite a few articles showing people putting basic needs such as groceries onto credit cards because they are stretched to the limit.

    Labors plan gives him tax relief, the education rebates helps the kids education and future and the health spending will help with the high medical costs due to the underfunding of medicare and the hospitals.

  9. Is Chris Uhlmann on the ABC a Liberal supporter? Would be good if anyone had a breakdown on the sympathies of those on the debate panel.

  10. 67
    Uhlmann is a complete twat.
    He chucks tantrums if he can’t tie a (Labour) pollie in a knot – I heard him ask Swan the same question 12 times earlier this week. Swan was never going to answer. Eventually Uhlmann even detailed the wedge he was attempting to apply – it became comedy.
    It’s ridiculous to think he’s the ‘chief’ of anything.

  11. #68 I heard the same interview and it got me thinking about it. He is certainly the worst AM interviewer I have heard. Thanks for confirming that I was not the only one who thought the Swan interview was over the top stupidity.

  12. Having listening to Chris Uhlmann on the wireless, I think he could be one to watch during the debate. He’s tripped a few pollies up in recent months both Labor and Liberal.

    If the panel becomes a contest between the journos as to who can ask the smartest question, Uhlmann my man.

  13. Funny isn’t it.

    Any decent Liberal policies are just spin and rhetoric.

    Any commentators not slavishly promoting Labor’s tired pronouncements as great policy are derided as Tory stooges and whores.

    Any posters disagreeing with the notion that Kevin Rudd is actually God are condemned as frauds and fakes.

    This discussion board is little more than an on-line meeting of unemployable CFMEU numbskulls.

    Keep on deluding yourselves.

    Deep down you know that the Liberals are storming home and by polling day will simply demolish Rudd and his trade union acolytes.

    Hero to zero.

    The thinking people here – like Tabitha and I – will be laughing at the lot of you once again screaming ‘we were robbed’ and once again shouting that you are leaving Australia for good.

    The lot of you better book that cab to the airport.

  14. Uhlmann: complete twat.

    I’m glad somebody else mentioned him having to outline his wedge to Swan (apparently in case Swan didn’t quite understand the devastating trap he was supposed to fall into). The reason he outlined the wedge was so that the point could be made anyway.

    Tool.

  15. The following is an extract from a complaint email I sent to the ABC on 22 May 2007. It shows clearly what sort of bias Uhlmann has. The ABC replied saying it was perfectly ok.

    Kieran,

    As a classic example of the disturbing bias which is now a regular part of ABC News and current affairs, please read the quote below, which is the ABC’s transcript of an ‘analysis’ piece aired on AM this morning..

    “CHRIS UHLMANN: Well Tony, since you are clearly a racing man, you’d rather be in front than behind, and Kevin Rudd is clearly a long way in front in the quantitative polls at the moment.
    But look, the more I speak to people who actually know something about polling, the more I’m drawn to the conclusion that these polls are perhaps something of a house of cards.

    And if there is a strong breeze before the election, the whole thing might blow away very quickly. Now – and there might be a trigger that comes some time before that and the real race will be neck and neck.

    People apparently like the look of Kevin Rudd and apparently when you scratch the surface there are a number of unresolved issues about him, though. He seems very smart, yet there are signs that he occasionally misses important details.

    He’s very presentable, but there are big concerns about his team. He’s going well, but when things don’t ruin his way, then he seems easily shaken. So look, a lot of these concerns are based on character and the character of the people around him.

    So at this point in time, the polls are saying that people want a Kevin Rudd, they’re saying it’s like buying Ferrari, really – it’s sexy, it’s exciting but it comes with something of a large price tag.

    And when it comes to Election Day, or when the election is called, people will start thinking about the price as much as they think about the car and their hands will begin to shake as they look at that cheque.”
    …………………………….
    This person (Chris Uhlmann) is quite plainly not objective. This entire diatribe would be understandable coming from Alexander Downer, or somebody like that, but as supposed objective ‘analysis’ from an ABC reporter, it is clearly totally unacceptable.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  16. It would not surprise me if every poll during the campaign shows the minor party vote steadily climbing as the punters get progressively pissed off with the major parties – and I think the ALP may suffer more than the libs as the Kevin Rudd ‘me too’ policy really starts to wear thin.

  17. Deep down you know that the Liberals are storming home and by polling day will simply demolish Rudd and his trade union acolytes.

    Dream on Isabella.

    unemployable CFMEU numbskulls.

    I’m a lawyer, many others here are from all walks of life. Care to make an original sensible comment in arguing for LNP policies, instead of parroting their propaganda?

  18. Phew! I thought I was the only who complained about Uhlmann. With both him and Speers on the panel its likely to be a tough day for Rudd.

  19. I think the electorate is polarised into two camps. I liken it to the US 04 election with Bush haters and Bush lovers campaigning with equal fervour. The Unions have brought the ALP to the mark and given them a nice lead now its up to the ALP not to stuff it up.

  20. The hardest thing about interviewing Wayne Swan would be resisting the urge to give him a good slapping!

    One finds lots of politicians from all sides annoying, but Wayne Swan just takes the cake!

    Even if he is treasurer after a Rudd victory – my prediction is that he won’t last more than 18 months – he will be out of his depth.

  21. Good tax policy. Everyone can appreciate the cuts and it’s better than the Coalitions.

    Prediction: Rudd neutralises the Coalition’s tax policy and gains a few more votes because his policy is better. Goes on to smash Howard on Sunday night (on the back of a finger counting performance to rule them all).

    My election prediction: ALP will win. The coalition will draw the margin back towards 53-47 but the ALP will easily form government.

    Why? Rudd is far more popular than Howard and Costello. He’s in the driving seat and that by a huge margin. He doesn’t need to do anything drastic, but the Coalition does to claw back the polls from the 56-44 margin. They will do that, but won’t be able to get it closer than 53-47. Rudd can just defend all campaign and win. Simple.

    The other option for Kevvy is to take the attack and try to smash the coalition, which is possible. But he is far more likely to make mistakes that could push the coalition vote closer to 50/50.

    I agree with his current strategy and am certain he will win. Further, the Libs have done their tax policy. They can only have one, and possibly two (at a stretch) massive announcements to pull a huge portion of voters back. In any case, Rudd will likely counter and neutralise those announcements as he has done with this tax policy.

    I see a few miffed liberal posters today. Please, you spent the last week lauding Costello and Howard’s tax brilliance. Don’t pretend that Rudd’s tax policy, which virtually copies the Coalition’s, is rubbish. Try to contribute to the debate.

  22. {Children are expensive, no matter what the govt does, you are better off without them financially }

    Yeah, but Costello said we should have three. one for Mum, one for Dad and one for the country.

    If everyone able to did, it might blow out Rudd’s budget a little bit in a few years time. lol

  23. #77
    Alan – good work for writing the letter.
    Maybe if he does okay on Sunday one of the commercial networks will give him a job so we don’t have to put up with him anymore.
    Apparently someone dismantled him in the last couple of days, says my wife – I’ll go looking for transcripts

  24. 2 questions to Adam

    1. Are your predictions now set in stone for the duration?
    2. Do you think that Gavan O’Connor running in Corio will distract the ALP in Corangamite?

  25. Adam @ 88: Good read. I agree with all of your predictions, except I think the ALP will scrape through in Wentworth, thanks to Green preferences. I also think the ALP will win at least five of the seats mentioned in the last paragraph, though I will wait till a bit closer to the election before making a full prediction.

  26. blackburnpseph, if I change my mind I will say so, but I won’t take down the predictions I have just made – my error will stand for all to see. That’s also what Peter has said at Mumble.

    Yes O’Connor will be a distraction, but I doubt he will affect the outcome in Corangamite. Furthermore if perchance he wins Corio (which I doubt), I’m sure he will support a Rudd government.

    I haven’t said anything about independents. Obviously Priestley in Calare and Brunning in Forrest have good chances.

  27. I think there’s a little trick hidden in Labor’s education rebate.

    Many people already claim all or part of their home computer costs (internet access, depreciation or rental costs etc) on their tax, arguing that they need to be able to use/check the computer and the net at home. In actual fact, while they may do a bit of this, the kids are on the computer most of the time, usually in chat rooms or Facebook or Myspace.

    Now if Labor encourages parents to claim a lot of their computer costs through this education rebate, it could mean fewer claims on adult tax returns, and actually save the government a bit of money in tax rebates. Quite clever really.

    The winners will be the companies that sell internet access or sell and rent computers and laptops. Having said that, we’re pretty much at the stage now where every family has legitimate need for a computer at home, and Labor’s proposal will help that happen.

    On another issue….I do agree that people without school-age or pre-school children may be a bit angry, and feel there’s little for them from either party. I think this needs to be addressed for young people in particular – perhaps policies that might bring rents down (if anyone can think of one!) and HECS fee relief would help.

    It’s true that there are extra costs in raising a family, and we need more kids to stop the population ageing. But people have a right not to have kids, and those who choose this course certainly pay their share of taxes and use less community infrastructure than families (at least until they get old).

    I make these comments as someone whose last kids are about to leave home, and thus I must bid farewell to Family Tax Benefit A and the possibility of an education rebate! And I’m too young for the pension!

  28. Hi Tabitha

    Good to have you back on board. We’ve all missed the laughs you regularly give us. Some unkind person was saying today they are not sure if you are really a human or just one of those dolls that blurts out something funny every time you touch it. Personally I don’t think it matters. Humour is humour.

    By the way your name got a mention on the previous thread if you want to check it out. Apparently they’re missing you over there too.

    Keep up the good work.

  29. “Labor is for union control
    Liberal is for personal freedom”

    Unless of course that freedom consists of joining together with other people in your industry to collectively negotiate employment conditions. The Libs don’t like that freedom.

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