Morgan: 55.5-44.5

Morgan has released two polls at once: its normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend (largely or entirely before the election announcement), and a phone poll conducted over the past two nights. The former had Labor’s lead at 57-43, down from 57.5-42.5 the previous week, while the latter has it at 55.5-44.5. The respective samples were 850 and 598. The more recent poll shows a 4.5 per cent increase in the combined minor party vote, which was down in both Galaxy and ACNielsen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

466 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

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  1. I sympathize with middle income earners without school kids.

    However, we must also remember that having educated kids to grow up and be productive and creative contributors to society, benefits nearly all of us.

  2. Labor to win 92 seats

    Pick up 32 from Howard.

    9 in Qld
    8 in NSW, including North Sydney and possibly Bennelong and Wentworth.
    4 in Vic
    2 in Tassie
    4 in SA
    4 in WA, possibly Pearce and Kalgoorlie as surprises.
    1 in NT

  3. Rudd is weaving a narrative, its not about “the economy” or “tax policy” its about a different Australia, a highly educated skilled Australia.

    Building for the future – its a perception thing, I think he is winning.

    Watch him weave the policies into a unified theme. A perception of a Vision for the future.

    Howard can only offer more of the same – this will appeal to some, but not enough to stop him from losing the election.

  4. I get the feeling the media has turned on Rudd. It seems to be a favourite sport — build them up and then tear them down. It’s as if they can’t be bothered writing about any of Howard’s faults because he’s been around for so long so it’s not new. So all you hear about is how Rudd has done this wrong, or done that wrong, but hardly a word of criticism for the cynical politics offered by JWH.

    http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/labor_leaves_voters_guessing_on_tax_detail.htm

  5. My predictions for seat gains for the ALP in the H of R:

    NSW (9)
    Victoria (6)
    Queensland (6)
    Western Australia (4)
    South Australia (4)
    Tasmania (2)
    NT (1)

    Total seats gained: 32
    Majority: 13
    2PP result in the vicinity of: 54-46

    These are based on calculations I’ve made based on past election results in each seat and current opinion poll trends.

  8. I agree ChrisC.

    I believe that private companies should be able to mostly negotiate whatever they wish with their employees. But by the same token, if those employees wish to bargain collectively to improve their conditions they should be able to do so.

  9. I was really expecting more from Labor tax policy. By that I dont mean more on health and education or more tax cuts, but just more vision in general. This was a real chance to win votes with a clear difference in policy. The education rebate is a cheap trick which doesnt address any central problems with education.

    Also I think the main thing is that they may have nullified the Liberal advantage….but that just leaves room for Howard to anounce something big again (who knows what) next week and keep the momentum while Rudd plays catch up. No way to win a campaign.

  11. Well, well, well…to my very pleasant surprise, the ABC’s coverage of Krudd’s tax catch-up was overwhelmingly negative in tone. They emphasised its similarity to the Coalition’s package, and interviewed a tax expert who expressed his disappointment at how alike the two policies are. They also showed Saul Eslake of the ANZ noting that the things that set it apart from the Government’s package would actually be more inflationary (a killer line). They then mentioned the Government’s improving poll fortunes and showed Mr Howard shaking hands with beaming voters.

    They also showed Swan and Krudd saying that they’ll only cut the tax rates to three if they can afford it. Which means they won’t.

  14. Labor’s tax plan nullifies Howard’s. As that’s Howard’s only real vote-driver, it’s not looking too good for him now. If net polls are anything to go by, Sky News was running 60-39 in favour of Labor’s tax plan over the Coalition’s at 6pm, so it’s looking pretty good. Commercial stations gave positive coverage to the plan, stupid ABC should burrack for Rudd.

  15. Yes, Steven Kaye, isn’t it interesting that the ABC have become cheer leaders for the LNP. Obvious to some of us. Makes it also obvious just how difficult it will be for Labor to win from opposition. Kevin Rudd may just be speaking the truth about how tough it’s going to be.
    Adam, very interesting analysis and conclusions. Thanks.

  16. So it’s a case of “everything he said plus a computer”. I now fully expect to see Howard match this offer plus throw in a free bag of chips.

    I wonder if Rudd is thinking that the people who wish more money could be spent on services will see through this ambit and the people who would rather have the money themselves get more from him.

    How could anyone think of voting for the coalition’s plans if they truly are self-interested voters. Hey, who doesn’t want a new computer?

    I think people will be talking about and debating the merits of this plan for longer than the day and a half that Howard’s offering generated.

    Buckets of money and a new gadget, not particularly conservative but pretty good politics none the less.

  17. It just indicates how bereft the political debate is in Australia when Tax is considered a key policy issue. Revenue has to be raised, people and companies have to pay tax. It’s not a plan, it’s one side of the bookkeeping ledger, receipts.

    There’s no imagination involved, no vision, nothing to get excited about.

  18. And Mark Olsen is secretly harbouring for a safe Liberal Seat.

    [The West Australian secretary of the Australian Nursing Federation Mark Olson has undermined the Federal Opposition leader Kevin Rudd by declaring that Australian Workplace Agreements are preferred by some workers, and that most unions are heading for extinction.

    Mr Olson says while there is room for improvements, some union members prefer AWA’s to collective wage agreements.

    He says unions must help workers negotiate AWAs, and Mr Rudd is being unrealistic if he thinks there is not a place for them.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/19/2063800.htm?section=justin

  19. “Tell that to the aboriginals in the NT Tabitha.

    Now back to your room before I wiggle my nose and turn you into a chimp.”

    *snort* 🙂

    Oh, thank you, Endora. I love you.

  20. Darn @ 109

    I sure hope so. I still beleive the ALP will win the election (my tip is for a 3 seat majority), but they need to lift their game a bit I think.

  23. Uh, Aristotle, tax *should* be a key issue.

    The public is entitled to the money they earn. It’s as simple as that.

    The fact that the ALP was trying to dodge this entire issue goes to show the extent of their intellectual bankruptcy.

  24. I didn’t think the ABC was pro or anti either side. The two tax policies cancel each other out. Overall I think some people expect too much. The Lib side expect the media to condemn it and the Labor side expect the media to get excited. Truth is many people find it all boring. All Australia is worried about is if Ben Cousins is going to face criminal charges. The polls will bump and and down a little between now and the election but overall the trend will stay as it is as it has been for months now.

  25. Given the generally negative media coverage, I don’t think Rudd’s latest stunt will do anything to damage the Government’s momentum. Indeed, the ABC hilariously reported that Rudd’s plan would actually be more inflationary.

    No matter which way you look at it, Rudd lost the week.

  27. Ari, couldn’t agree more. However, the critical thing from my point of view is to exit the most ghastly government I’ve ever seen. Can you imagine what they will do to the country, if they are returned? I shudder at the prospect.

  28. I agree Aristotle – I find it quite ridiculous that it’s suddenly somehow compulsory to have a “tax policy”. Does this mean the major parties have to come up with a new “tax policy” each election (every 3 years)?

    The Tax Office must really hate election time though – having to implement all this fiddles to the tax system would be rather frustrating I’d guess.

    But anyway, in terms of vision and so on – let’s just hope this tax BS (which admittedly, was politically necessary for Labor to ‘bite’ on) is over and done with in these first few weeks, allowing Labor to concentrate on providing some real alternative policy.

  29. Labor’s tax plan has totally neutralised Howard’s only big gambit, Labor has held a dominant position in the polls all year so all it has to do is counter Howard’s bribes and its status quo again.

    Predictions; Labor majority of 15 seats.

  30. ‘Peter Brent at Mumble said yesterday: “I reckon that people who aren’t prepared to have a go – who cleverly hedge their bets all year – lose all bragging rights.”

    ‘I agree. With the campaign underway, it’s time for all us armchair experts to commit ourselves to firm predictions. Here’s mine: Labor to win 20 seats.’

    I’m not particularly interested in punting or bragging, Adam. I just want Labor to win.

  31. Adam,

    I have waved a dead chicken over my keyboard and therefore I predict a uniform 5% swing to the ALP with a TPP of about 52/48. Labor will pick up an additional 19 or so seats with the following gains:

    NSW 6
    VIC 2
    QLD 2
    SA 4
    TAS 2
    WA 2
    NT 1

    SA could be a bit high, but this could be offset by an unexpected gain or two in VIC as the swing seems larger there.

  33. @128 Its the super changes I hate.

    I work is IT for a super administrator, do you have any idea how much time and money we spend keeping up to date with every hair brained idea the govt has???

  35. Nath

    Labor needs to get just under 525 of the 2pp prefered vote in Qld to pick up 9 seats there.

    This is achievable considering the way Howard has stuffed Qld around on water and heath, Beattie has been asking Howard for years for money to buy out Cubbie station to help with the water crisis.

    Howard kept refusing until water became an election issue and then he came up with his back of the envelope plan. Likewise with health, Beattie asked for more money, Abbott said no and Beattie said well you run the hospitals you take them over, Abbott refused.

    On hospitals and education if Howard and co had planned and invested in education and training Qld would not have had to bring in doctors from overseas like Patel and Hanreef, there should have been plenty of Australian trained doctors if these currrent jokers had been doing their job.

  39. Adam,
    A very interesting piece on your site: even though I can’t see Rudd winning (sheer pessimistic anti-scientific mentality on my part), your confidence that Howard is set to go down in Bennelong gives me some spiteful compensatory hope.

    I have a question, and apologies if this has been asked and answered elsewhere: what sort of ‘Narrowing’ have we seen in recent previous elections? Have we seen a 5% two-party swing over five weeks anywhere in Australia in recent years? (Note the specific inclusion of Australia in that sentence. References to Fianna Fail from any Tories will be smiled at, and passed by… to paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen: I know Bertie Ahern, and John Howard is no Bertie Ahern…)

  40. [Arbie J, there is no way the ALP are going to get anywhere near 50/50 in queensland.]

    All the polls this year say they will, do you think all of them are wrong?

    [Coalition 84 seats.]

    All the polls this year say they will, do you think all of them are wrong?

  41. 135 should read just under 52% or about 51.7%.

    Bill,
    Agree on the senate, but Work Choices has hit hard and scares many, the your rights at work has many members signed up and is very effective.

    Work Choices by itself is at least a 5% swing and coupled with labors health, education and environment policies should swing more over.

  43. Yes, Bill, that makes no sense at all. If Howard wins the Reps he must also retain control of the Senate. Psephology 101, comrade. The only way the Greens can have the balance in the Senate is if the Libs get thrashed.

  44. uawake ,

    I was thinking the same thing. I guess Bill thinks people are going to vote Howard in the Reps and vote for the Greens in the Senate. Yeah, I can really see all those Lib voters ticking the Greens in the Senate.

  46. I think the ALP’s tax policy is good tactical politics, and thats what the campaign period is about. Strategically, for the country, well you really have to have won government before that is an issue.

    First order of business is to get rid of the Rattus Crew, and cosign them to chewing on each others bone for a couple of years. It seems plain that the ALP machine is at its most disciplined for a long time and focused on that objective.

    For slightly disappointed ALP supporters like me, it just makes it more likely that i will vote Green in the Senate. Yes i’ll preference the ALP there, but even if the Greens candidate doesn’t win, i’ll send the message that id like them to move a bit left from where they are now.

    If the Greens candidate does win, then i have helped toss out Rattus, AND helped put someone in a powerful position in the Senate who will most likely support the broad thrust of the ALP but may drag then back to wher i think they should be on the right / left continuum.

  47. Rudd’s tax copy… opps i mean plan will just make voters think of one thing. “Why would I vote for Howard-lite when I can have the real thing”.

    What a joke hes been getting flogged over tax for a month and the plan he comes up with is a replica of the governments.

    Howard by 8 seats.

  49. I stick by my earlier prediction:
    Labor 80 seats
    Coalition 68 seats
    Independents 2 seats

    And very good exposure for Rudd on ACA tonight! This sort of stuff is gold in an election campaign.

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