Morgan has released two polls at once: its normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend (largely or entirely before the election announcement), and a phone poll conducted over the past two nights. The former had Labor’s lead at 57-43, down from 57.5-42.5 the previous week, while the latter has it at 55.5-44.5. The respective samples were 850 and 598. The more recent poll shows a 4.5 per cent increase in the combined minor party vote, which was down in both Galaxy and ACNielsen.
No 147
I agree. It makes a mockery of Rudd’s so-called “plan for the future” when is simply reading from the Coalition handbook.
I’m still betting on 84 seats for the Coalition.
Methinks Channel 9’s Ben Forden is a Rudd fan, he even got to use Kev’s shower LOL
Arbie J, ShowsOn. The latest Newspoll with state breakdown (Sep) had the ALP on 2pp:
Vic: 60
NSW: 58
Qld: 52
Nat: 56
I agree that if the ALP get 52 in Queensland then they will get 60 in Vic. But neither of these things are going to happen.
Re bill 136
I agree with Adam there is no way a Howard Govt can be rtd with the Greens having the BOP in the senate
for this to occur the libs would have to lose very badly
Can’t resist it
I liked the ACA coverage of Rudd, I missed the Howard part.
Thats what is frustrating a bit with Rudd tho, see him relaxed, in ‘non soundbite mode’, and I find him a lot more appealing.
147;Thommo Says:
“Rudd’s tax copy… opps i mean plan will just make voters think of one thing. “Why would I vote for Howard-lite when I can have the real thingâ€. ”
Well, it will come down to all the other baggage that comes along with the “real thing”.
Lies, GST (Never, Ever??) Children Overboard, AWB, Iraq, David Hicks, Stupid Defence Decisions, SerfChoices,Haneef, NT Intervention……..
The problem for Rattus is that people know him well enough to know that he cannot be trusted. That wasn’t to bad for him when there was no alternative, but now there is, and its killing his parties chances at this election.
No 157
Those are the same tired old excuses the Labor stooges on here always go on about.
When you look at the fact that Rudd agrees with most of those things you cited, again, the question must be asked as to why anyone should really bother with Mr Rudd?
By the way Adam I think you’ve done a good job with your election guide. Just to ask a dumb question about your Gallery of Australian PMs. What’s the difference between being a Right Honourable and merely a Honourable PM?
And Carps responds to Olson.
[Mr Carpenter has dismissed the comments.
“I don’t think anyone who’s ever watched Mark Olson’s career would ever think he would support a Federal Labor Government,” he said.
“Mark Olson is entitled to his point of view. He obviously thinks John Howard’s model is something that can work, he’s wrong. He’s wrong for so many people.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/19/2064777.htm
Voterboy @ 139: “I have a question, and apologies if this has been asked and answered elsewhere: what sort of ‘Narrowing’ have we seen in recent previous elections?”
This might help:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/27/the-narrowing/
Imacca apart from work choices the average joe blow who doesnt spend all his time commenting on politics blogs really doesnt give a damn about those issues you mentioned.
The problem for you imacca could well come on election night when Howard is delivering his victory speech.
Nath
56 gives labor 98 seats, but there was a poster a while ago, Grand Old Elephant, who said in regards to the support for labor in the polls and the disbelief over the results, who said it was similar to when Whitlam got turfed. People were turning out in their thousands in rallies for him but the polls were showing a wipeout, yet they were disbelieved until the wipeout happened.
The zealots in the liberal party, the extreme right, the religous nutters, those embracing the Exclusive Brethren and their like, and the bullying tactics of thier supporters have alienated many in the party. The only way to turf them out and regain control is a wipeout as they get their backing from the current members.
No 162
I anxiously await the look on everyone’s face if that does indeed occur.
Although, I still believe this is a close contest, but I’m still putting my money on Coalition landslide in the end.
LOL, that;s just the point you lot can’t get through your heads, there is a huge number of us ex libs that will vote for Rudd just for that specific reason, he’s not a nefarious Howard.
Err Bill, you just lost one Green vote for the senate!
156
You’d be surprised,Thommo….I know several who resent how JWH has taken on Presidential entitlements,costing us a mint(eg Kirribilli house and the cost of aicraft,etc) .
Very much a perception of ‘nose-in-the-trough’.
All ministers and ex-ministers, as well as the Speaker and the President of the Senate, are styled “The Honourable.” Members of the British Privy Council are styled “The Right Honourable.” Since the Hawke Government abolished imperial honours in 1983 no Australians have been appointed to the Privy Council. The last MP to be a Right Honourable was Ian Sinclair.
Yes, I can verify that from first hand experience. I moved to Oz in the first week of December 2004. I was there for the 2004 vote. It was most unpleasant >;-( ……… This is much better already because of the solid lead that the opposition have had in the polls all year. The electorate is smart enough now that they won’t be fooled a 4th time, the polls show that.
In the seat of Bootbhy, that Nicole Cornes is trying to win for Labor, a former Channel 9 Adelaide journalist is also running.
His name is Ray McGhee.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/general.aspx?id=62526
I have this feeling that he may be running simply to direct preferences to Labor. Maybe it is a conspiracy theory, but this sort of thing has happened in S.A. before.
For example a prominent jewler Albert Bensimon has run for the state seat of Adelaide as a front for the Liberal party.
No 166, isn’t interesting how people suddenly invent people “they know who don’t like x”.
The fact is, politician salaries are miniscule by comparison to the entire budget so who gives a damn.
ArbieJ says
56 gives labor 98 seats
yeah but we were talking 9 seats in Qld. You should be a politician.
Thommo, SerfChoices would be enough mate. That was to far for a lot of people, from a lot of different demographics, as it hurts our kids or grandkids.
Ian Sinclair of “I wrote myself a letter and pretended it was from you” as Max Gillies sang.
Thanks Adam. I’m amazed Johnnie hasn’t brought back the Imperial Honours.
170
Perceptions……it is the small things that often niggle.
Those of you who were pondering Chris Uhlmann’s political antecedents might be interested to know that he ran as a candidate for the ACT Legislative Assembly in 1998, Electorate of Molonglo, for the Osborne Independent Group. No doubt some of you historians/researchers will have views on where you would place Paul Osborne on a left/right scale.
No. 176
I have no problems with Mr Uhlmann. Compared to the likes of Tony Jones, Uhlmann is undoubtedly objective.
The feigned indignation about any criticism of Rudd is ridiculous. If he is to be the next PM, he deserves criticism. We know Howard, we know nothing of Rudd, excpet for some fancy slogans.
Gotta ask: how much of the Coalition’s upper-end tax cuts are targeted at “wet” liberals, particularly those in normally safe seats in Victoria – the Higgins/Kooyong crowd? I’ve seen some published polling/reporting that indicates that some are deserting the Libs in these seats.
I can’t imagine that they’re targeted at “doctors’ wives” – insofar as that stereotype holds true, they won’t be motivated by tax cuts like these. Not that the ALP’s structure will be appealing directly to them either – health andeducation are bread-and-butter ALP issues, rather than the environment, human rights and aboriginal issues which seem to attract the “doctors’ wives” element.
For what it’s worth my pick is ALP 14 seat majority in da House, and I think that’s being a bit conservative.
In the Senate, I expect 15 Coalition, 20 ALP, 5 Greens in this election, to make the chamber 36 Coalition, 34 ALP, 7 Green and 1 Family First. The end of the line for the Democrats I guess.
And while I don’t think they’ll get a seat, I expect Hanson to do better in this election as Howard is forced to chase some votes from the centre at the expense of the far right.
Nath
All I go on is the polls, people I meet, what my friends and relies say and articles I read. And there is quite a few articles and blogs from libs put off by the way the hard right has taken over the party.
There is not one person that I don’t personally know who hasn’t been directly affected by Work Choices or had a relative hit by it. Similar with housing, people are having their kids move back home because they cannot afford to buy. Many are concerned over climate change and the government response is to hang out your washing instead of using the dryer. Health costs are through the roof, $63 to see a doctor, impossible to find one that bulk bills. Uni degrees at $100,000 to $200,000 plus.
There is a lot of p*ssed off people out there nath.
Paul Osborne was very much DLP in some respects.
In the end he came across as very extreme and often down right nutty, and was quickly voted out after one term. Thankfully.
Interestingly, he had been previously well regarded in Canberra for his famous role in the 1994 Rugby League Grand Final where he set up the Raiders first try.
Proof again that sport and politics don’t mix.
Since colors are being nailed to the mast:
ALP to have 12 seat majority in the HOR.
Greens BOP Senate.
Election called by the time the results from NSW/Vic are apparent.
If the Media treated sides equally during this election then Labor would have a comfortable victory – by about 25 seats.
But as Labor not only has to beat the LNP they have to overcome the majority of the Media outlets who are keen to give positive reporting to the LNP and negative reporting of Labor. Labor have 10 goal lead but are kicking into a 20 goal breeze which will blow stronger and stronger as the get closer to the election.
Everything Labor does in this campaign, no matter how good will recieve consistent negative reporting in press, radio and TV.
Basically Labor has to be twice as good as the LNP to win, which they are.
Labor by 5 seats.
I get a YRW sign on my front Lawn tomorrow, but it doesn’t come with an anti-Eternal Brethren baseball bat deterent, unfortunately.
A serious issue for after the election will be the corrupt media and the bringing to account of the partisan press, editors and journalists. This has got to stop – we used to be a decent fair country.
Google turns up nothing about Ray McGhee running for Boothby. Where is this story coming from?
Actually I’ve upped my bet, a Coalition landslide: 110 seats.
fair enough Arbie, but I don’t think its going to go down like that.
My prediction: ALP by 5 or 6 seats. Setting them up for a Brackslide at the next election if they dont stuff up.
A-C Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
“Uh, Aristotle, tax *should* be a key issue.
The public is entitled to the money they earn. It’s as simple as that.
The fact that the ALP was trying to dodge this entire issue goes to show the extent of their intellectual bankruptcy.”
Do you really believe that great corporations are run by their accountants? Or that great entrepreneurs are marked by their accounting qualifications?
It takes vision, insight, drive and enthusiasm, not bean counting or relying on the myopia of those who think that counting the beans is the key to commercial or national success.
Tax is a low order issue, there’s only so many ways it can raised. It doesn’t require too many neurons firing at once to work out a way to do it.
My prediction is a Labor win by between 4 to 20 seats..
to 185:
I think that after the middle of next week, both sides tax policy will have been analysed and argued to death and anyone who would base there vote mainly on it will be firmly parked on one side or the other. That leaves 4.5 weeks for important stuff.
164
Generic Person Says:
Although, I still believe this is a close contest, but I’m still putting my money on Coalition landslide in the end.
That is just self-contradicting nonsense. How can it be close but a landslide?
No 189
It is close at the moment, but in the end Rudd will have an embarrassing gaffe that will send him back to the wilderness.
[Greens leader Bob Brown says the party is getting closer to a national preference deal with the Labor party.
Launching the party’s campaign for its first Queensland Senate seat, Senator Brown said he hopes to finalise an arrangement with Labor in the next week.
The Greens will not extend the deal to Tasmania because of anger at Labor’s support of the Gunns pulp mill.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/19/2064789.htm?section=justin
The Osborne Independant Group wasn’t capable of much independant thinking – part of the sock puppet brigade.
I didn’t know of Ulmann’s involvement – if he thought that was a good start to a political career, well, he’s not much of a thinker.
[ Greens leader Bob Brown says the party is getting closer to a national preference deal with the Labor party. ]
Must be a different Greens Party than the one Bill belongs to as he’s expecting to pick up votes from the Libs.
S @ 133 “I work is IT for a super administrator, do you have any idea how much time and money we spend keeping up to date with every hair brained idea the govt has???”
Not meaning to be rude, but if it wasn’t for “hair brained” govts…notably a labor one…you would be working as a pension clerk not an IT administrator.
You noobs just dont like Ulmann because he made Rudd out to look foolish when he caught him out that he didnt understand productivity…give Ulmann a break!
No Glen Ulmanns crap. The other quality journos still seperate news from opinion.
Re Team Tin-Tin’s Tax Policy:
Subprime $weetie reckons it’s, “Me too, but…”.
Close, Cossie, but no cigar.
For many it plays, “Me too, but BETTER!”.
BTW Ulmanns only after a headline grabber, so he can toss off in front of his colleagues. So I’m not suggesting he has a politcal bias. The opposition are easier targets because they struggle more to get in front of the media on their terms.
Talking to my sister today.
She said she was looking for something different from Labor, if the choice is these tax cuts from Coalition and the same tax cuts (slight adjustment) from labor. In her words “The slight change in education means nothing to me. If I am getting the same thing, why would I vote for Labor when Liberal have a proven record as economic managers”
I wonder if this is going to be a reaction by many.
[ You noobs… ]
Glen,
Good to see you’re being as dispassionate and logical as ever. Never stooping in to giving insults?