Morgan has released two polls at once: its normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend (largely or entirely before the election announcement), and a phone poll conducted over the past two nights. The former had Labor’s lead at 57-43, down from 57.5-42.5 the previous week, while the latter has it at 55.5-44.5. The respective samples were 850 and 598. The more recent poll shows a 4.5 per cent increase in the combined minor party vote, which was down in both Galaxy and ACNielsen.
Mark, Thanks, and with respect, I am engaged in a fairly intense dispute with the ABC, about Uhlmann, any several others. I have a comprehensive archive, and really do not wish to subvert this blog with peripheral matters. Just now, I am going to bed. I will provide other pithy examples anon.
cheers,
Alan H
No 349
Guys, get over Uhlmann. You’re getting your knickers in a knot because Rudd copped a bit of flack.
It’s comparatively docile when you examine the putrid bile that passes as Howard criticism on this blog.
Plugger
It is about moving out of the white picket fences of the of the past and into the 21st century.
Howard and co are even running the old Menzies line of reds under the bed by trying to say Gillard was once a communist.
To 347:
Don’t think it matters if they it feeds into the LNP anti-union line. SerfChoices is Warfarin for Rattus. I think that a lot of the Union adds on that will reappear half way through the campaign, and you would expect the ALP and ACTU to coordinate strategy on that one.
[OT
Does anyone know where I can find trend graphs on the betting markets for other elections (Australia and elsewhere)? I’m a bit curious.
cheers.]
Here’s the U.S. primaries
Democrats:
http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/democratic-presidential-nominee/
Republicans:
http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/republican-presidential-nominee/
All Candidates:
http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/presidential/
Which Party:
http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/control-of-presidency/
OzPolitics updates the Australian election odds once a week, generally Sunday or Monday. Here is the current graph:
Here is the current page:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/2007/10/14/betting-market-update-64/
Alan H, please do. Perhaps we could compare notes.
It is facinating to note the past executive of the Oxford Univiaristy Labour Club one of whom obviously stands out. Great Trivia question regarding who was elected President of that Labour Club in 1950 which then would have been extremely more left wing. I dont think that is something that the Australian or any other News Limited paper would put in any history article.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_University_Labour_Club
Oh, I forgot to explain. The U.S. results are based on futures, it is the cost to buy a contract that will pay out $100.
So the lower the value, the smaller chance of getting a $100 pay out. The higher the value, the more likely you’ll get a $100 pay out for a win.
Generic Person, I don’t think you quite understand the implications for our democracy of a heavily partisan media. At the very least we should exect the ABC to be reasonably impartial and it has shown itself to be anything but.
Nightline tonight was Rod Cameron & Michael Kroger chatting re the 1st week,
Predictable – cameorn says they neutralised the tax issue, Kroger says they should have done something distinctly Labor, then said something about bracket creep not being factored into Swan’s calculations.
Thanks, ShowsOn – but I actually meant trend graphs on previous elections so I could actually see their effectiveness in predicting the outcome. I don’t know how accurate they are…
AC
360: sorry, Lateline. It’s late and it’s night – forgive me.
#
257
Adam Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
Tell us about the Greens-Liberal preference deal, Bill. 🙂 You know you want to.
The GO-GOs my lips are sealed
Typical of Swanny to make an error – what a dunce.
Here’s the Head of News Ltd Australia giving his description of what a good journalist should be.
{Mr Hartigan said the necessary traits of a journalist included rat-like cunning, paranoid temperament and implacable hatred of administrators, lawyers and politicians. }
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/News-Ltd-boss-slams-Ruddock-over-FOI/2007/10/19/1192301048293.html
He also gives Ruddock a good serve but doesn’t actually say that uncle Rupert doesn’t influence what is reported.
{Regarding his boss, media magnate Rupert Murdoch, Mr Hartigan said there were no blanket instructions from the top on how to cover politics or major business stories.
“Rupert doesn’t vet the copy and nor do I. But I do answer to him and I appoint the editors,” he said.}
Week 1. Coalition breaks out the tax cuts and then spends the rest of the week talking about union leaders in the ALP, with a sprinkling of “experience”.
In 98 it was about the GST. In 01 it was about security. In 04 it was about interest rates.
The union leaders and experience line is primarily an internal line. Believers will believe it, but it means very much less to outsiders.
In contrast, the last three elections had clear and early themes aimed beyond the heartland. In the past three elections, the ALP has had to take the negative approach to the main themes. Not so the current election, where health, education, infrastructure and particularly the environment are likely to play a leading role, and where the ALP has the momentum.
Can the coalition win on this basis?
BTW as both parties are nearly the same, preferences to either is the same
Saw the Rudd tax plan media conference on Sky a couple of hours ago. Anyone know who the journo is who told Rudd that he’s got kids at school and wasnt excited at all about the education rebate and Rudd asked him what Universe he was living on?
TC @ 368: not sure but I thought it sounded like Glenn Milne.
As I said though, not sure about that.
Bill
as a green pls justify passing on a preference to Libs
(with no long term target for CO2 reduction and
no emission trading scheme until at earliest 2012
and reliance on nuke power)
vs ALP (target, 2008, no nukes)
thanks in advance for a sensible explanation
Btw, Id say the ALP better have a big announcement Monday.
My money’s on Rodent trying to repeat week one till Nov 24.
ie. dominate Monday with new announcement: spend rest of week demanding reposnse, then saying “me-too” or “unions = bad” till sunday, and repeat.
Glen
If Howard uses Swann’s tax ideas (minus a bit) for his
tax policy, I think we can be happy that Rudd wants to
give us the real version
[Maybe you should join Family First. I don’t think the Greens are really the party for you.]
I think it is hilarious that Family First hates The Greens, yet according to the parliament house library, Family First (Fielding) and The Greens Senators vote the same more often than not.
361 A-C see links from Andrew Leigh’s blog
Polls as Probabilities and Political Donations
Thursday, October 7th, 2004
I wouldnt be surprised if the debate sees some big ticket policy announcements now the tax policies are out and about. The weekend papers will be about labors tax policy so The Rodent King wil be looking for his Monday headline.
Howard had to be tied and dragged into accepting Climate Change and even then it is only for the sake of appearance like others in his party. For him it has become an opportunity to give business to the nuclear power / waste industry – and he will force it on the States – he already researched that.
Howard and Co have no intention of taking Climate Change initiatives seriously after the election, it will be all weasely words.
That is at least one very good reason to do with the health of this planet why I would not preference L/NP. But that is just me.
Insiders will be interesting on Sunday, as Cassidy and the other Labor stooges desperately try and spin the week in Labor’s favour. What fun!
What they won’t be able to spin is the trend in the betting market. Practically all the money bet since the election was called has been on the Coalition. Indeed, since last Saturday the odds at Centrebet have gone from Coalition $2.70, Labor $1.47 to Coalition $2.15, Labor $1.71. Wonder if Barrie will mention that?
Steven Kaye: you’re obviously forgetting your great hero Piers Ackermann, whose fat arse takes up most of the Insiders couch most weeks.
Steven Kaye,
No one is forcing you to watch Insiders if it’s such a chore. In regards to the betting markets I hope they do move because I’ll put a bet on and make a tidy profit.
Speaking of insiders. Has Paul Kelly always been this boring.
I think that’s right Barry.
In every war there is a speculator and war profiteer snivelling in the background – ours is Paul K furtively shuffling “ratting” the corpses of the Labor dead.
Yes is it just me or is Piers Akerman looking more like Jabba the Hut every week? and why do they get the twit on Insiders? certainly not for his razor sharp perceptions.
It’s funny how people criticise Glen for repetitiveness, when the Labor stooges here constantly repeat the age old criticisms of Howard and Costello eg GST and Iraq.
Double standards and hypocrisy galore.
Three most likely Labor shadows to cry on election night if KR goes down:
Anthony Albanese
Penny Wong
Tanya Plibersek
Steven Kaye Says: @ 384
{What they won’t be able to spin is the trend in the betting market. Practically all the money bet since the election was called has been on the Coalition.}
Another thing they won’t be able to spin Steven Kaye is the latest on Sportingbet Decider which has Labor well ahead in the betting in 29 seats. Have a look here and stick in your favourites.
{THE 29 SEATS THAT WILL DECIDE THE ELECTION}
http://www.sportingbetdecider.com/press/article012.asp
Scorpio can you actually read and interpret numbers and words? That table doesnt show Labor ahead in 29 seats at all.
AH, ESJ, did you ever name those ten great men of history?
Centre the original artist is going to sell more CDs than the cover band and that’s why Howard will get more votes for his tax policy and not Rudd for his copy of our policy…which unlike ours didnt take into account bracket creep lol!
Ours is a tax policy because it covers all brackets Labor’s socialist copy of our policy is not a policy because it does not cover all Australia’s more class warfare from Labor and it will cost them votes…
Why buy generic when the real deal works and has a good track record all you are doing is risking it not working and it being a cheap knock off!
Arrrrr, I didn’t day that, did I. Can’t you read?
No I didnt get around to it Nath, too busy watching Sopranos episodes!
Don’t be surprised if Greenway falls to Labor.
Yes I hear Brendan Nelson is extremely worried about Bradfield too! My nan told me.
Louise Markus no doubt has her friends from Hillsong Church helping her campaign.
No but what Kroger said was classic and it deserved to be repeated here because it smacks the ALP down big time!
You have no response to this Paul as you resort to claiming its from HQ hahahah so lame Paul try harder to come up with a good come back mate!
393
Glen Says:
October 20th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Centre the original artist is going to sell more CDs than the cover band
Glen, that’s a poor choice of an analogy to use.
You could find yourself torn to bits with that one because there are literally hundreds of examples of artists outselling the original artists when releasing cover versions.
I have just conducted a cull of boring comments.
[Louise Markus no doubt has her friends from Hillsong Church helping her campaign.]
Nah, they’re too busy deciding the next Australian Idol Winner 🙂
[ In every war there is a speculator and war profiteer snivelling in the background… ]
Edward,
OK Big Mouth. Let’s not snivel in the background. Put your money where your mouth is. How much do you want to bet against me that your hero will win?
Frank, thanks for spotting error on Forrest page. Rectified.
What a stream of boring predictable tripe this blog has become.
His soul is slowly being sucked away by doppelganger. When the process is complete you will find a much more pleasant creature.