The Adelaide Advertiser keeps cranking out those opinion polls, as it did in the lead-up to the state election last March. This time it’s a survey of 662 voters in the north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin, retained by the Liberals in 2004 by just 0.9 per cent after a backlash against the sitting member, the now-retiring Trish Draper. Despite Liberal candidate Bob Day’s massive self-funded campaign, the poll shows a 54-46 lead for Labor’s Tony Zappia, who holds a primary vote lead of 45 per cent to 38 per cent. Further questions asked in the survey suggest that the loss of Draper’s personal vote has very little to do with the swing, despite recent reports the Liberals were begging her to reverse her decision to retire. The mystery of who actually conducts these Advertiser polls remains, to the best of my knowledge, unsolved.
About what i expected in Makin. I think this is a good example of what the swing will be in South Australia, 8.4% swing sounds about right.
Where did you get 8.3% from Hossen? I get a 5% swing on this poll (the Libs won on 51% in 2004, and it now says 46%.
Swing looks a fair bit less than what most polls seem to be suggesting (particularly for SA). Of course Labor did significantly better in this seat at the last election than it did as a whole (both in absolute and in terms of swing).
As a mortgage belt seat I think Makin will swing less than the National swing, but should it should still be easily picked up.
Oh my mistake should of been more clear. I think that a 2pp vote of 54-46 to labor in all of South Australia, that would be a swing of 8.4% and deliver 5 seats.
William,
can we now add the mystery of who conducts the Advertiser’s polls to the long list of deep dark secrets contained within Adelaide?
You can if you like, HarryH. Perhaps they’re done by the Beaumont children.
At last, a positive Advertiser result for the ALP. I wonder whether people who have claimed the others can’t possibly be right will be claiming the same about this one.
It’s definately good to see that a seat which Labor actually needs to win government is swinging. With a good campaign Labor should be able to solidify a win in this seat.
Call the election please, (6), don’t all seats within the first 16 to fall count as seats that Labor actually needs to win? Those 16 could come from some strange places the way things are looking in seats like Higgins and Dunkley. Maybe I’m dreaming but I would like to see a list of seats that posters on this board would most like to see fall. Which smarmy tories would you most like to see congratulating the new member on election night?
O’Connor would be nice, but that will never, ever happen.
Consolidation of Newspoll results from July – September showed a swing in SA of 9.4%.
Consolidation of Nielsen results from April – September showed a swing in SA/NT of 14%
Adelaide Advertiser results for Boothby, Sturt and Makin have been
Boothby – a swing of 1%
Sturt – a swing of 4%
Makin – a swing of 5%
Who do you trust?
Has anyone ever asked the Adelaide Advertiser who conducts its polling?
If it’s a reputable polling outfit, why keep it a secret? Fishy stuff, this. Maybe it’s an in-house jobbie. Something to keep the cadets busy?
I think whichever way you look at the Advertiser polls from the last few weeks, it shows the following:
1. ALP appears to be well ahead in Makin.
2. ALP appears to be very competitive in Sturt.
3. ALP seems less competitive in Boothby.
This pretty much makes sense, based on “form”.
So the seats in SA are likely to fall in this order:
1. Kingston
2. Wakefield
3. Makin
4. Sturt
5. Boothby
Almost certain 3 seat gain for ALP. Possibly 4, maybe 5 if the swing really goes crazy. I ignore Grey in this analysis, as I don’t believe the leaked polling on that one.
Can we stop with the aggregation of polls over long periods of time? The Newspoll and Nielsen poll aggregations can stretch over months, when people may – not surprisingly – change their mind because of either a major national issue or a local one.
And the numbers of people polled by both Nielsen and Newspoll in states like WA and SA for their single polls are very small – around the 100 to 200 mark.
There’s no way we would believe polls that small to give the view of the entire state, but somehow aggregating them over up to four or five months means they have some meaning.
Polls give a snapshot at one point in time. Polls aggregating figures over long periods of time with small starting sample sizes give you very, very little.
“O’Connor would be nice, but that will never, ever happen.”
If only, Karma policeman, if only.
Thinking about it though, remember when Tuckey was one of the biggest idiots in the coalition? Now every second minister is vying for the job. Tuckey’s blatherings used to be good for a laugh, and he used to be thought of as “out there”, but now we have Downer, Abbott, Costello, Nelson, Andrews and others all stepping on his laughs, coming out with the sort of wild eyed inanities that used to be Wilson’s preserve.
The old iron bar is looking more like limp old carrot. Unfortunately he will probably be mouldering in the vegie crisper for another 3 years.
Matthew, agree with your order of tumble.
Despite being egged on by Dolly Diner and H.R. Nicholls-Minchin; no matter how profligately El Rodente porks Adelaide, Team Tin-Tin will be makin’ bacon in this seat.
Advertiser polls have always skewed towards the libs so i would expect Tony to be doing better than what this poll is showing, while it’s satisfactory ive been told labor party polling shows a much higher % for Tony, he’ll make a wonderful dedicated member for his constituants, i’ll see if i can find out who does the Advertiser polling.
this is the sort of thing that will be more in voters minds rather than the death penalty when they line up in that little box pencil in hand to do their duty.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/statistics-beat-hockey-with-his-own-stick/2007/10/09/1191695910530.html
Dogford @ 7, yes. But common sense tells us that there are certain ‘key seats’ that should Labor not win, they will most likely not have the momentum to win in other seats. For instance, should the ALP not win Kingston, although its certainly possible that they’d go on to win other SA seats it wouldn’t bode well for them. Similarly if they couldn’t win Bonner, although possibly they could win enough other Qld seats it wouldn’t look good.
The fact that the ALP appears in front in the seats up to Makin shows that the ALP are at least on track to scrape through at this election.
If I had my druthers (and was the praying type) I’d be on my knees and lighting candles for an ALP win in Mayo -without doubt, the seat I would most like to see fall -even more than Bennelong, or my home seat of Stirling (which I think is a near certainty by now). Higgins would be great too, though I don’t think it will matter all that much as Custardello won’t hang around there anyway if (when) the government falls. He’ll be off like a shot.
Ozymandias, I believe you are right, the man who never was will not attend first session of parliament if Rudd wins.
From the way these swings seem so out of line with the state swings from other polling outfits, you’d have to think they’re done by the same people that did the Libs internal polling for Eden Monaro.
Let It End, I’m sure Tania Custardello would be able to line hubby up with some juicy directorships. Lord Downer will probably pull the plug, too, and retire to his Manor Farm, where he can thrash the serfs without threat of legal sanction. Abbott will return to the seminary, to pre-empt any crisis of faith. Andrews will start a new career as an undertaker. Who will remain?
If that poll is right (and a big if) 5% is not enough – gives the ALP the obvious seats of Makin, Kingston and Wakefield but they will fall short in Sturt and Boothby.
If that’s right they will have to be looking elsewhere – 6.1%+ in Queensland will be needed.
As with any polling methodology, assuming the organisation that conducts it does so with consistency, the relativity of polling between different electorates is valid. Therefore even if you don’t agree with the absolute numbers in the Advertiser polls, I would argue that the relative polling numbers are in the rank order one would expect.
ie ALP 2PP: Makin >> Sturt > Boothby. Makes sense to me.
I would like to see Andrews, Ruddock and Brough go. Andrews and Ruddock because of how they messed up immigration, and Brough for his new colonisation idea.
A good seat for the ALP to lose would be Batman or Scullin to show that no seat is safe. It may prevent putting people who are no good straight into parliament.
I’d probably prefer Scullin because I’ve never heard of Jenkins doing anything in Canberra or Scullin ever.
Bert,
Is there a Harry Jenkins III waiting in the wings?
If Ian Chappell ever wanted to join politics he could be quite useful as an ALP candidate in the seat of Mayo. And I am sure Ian enjoys a good fight. :]
Just see Dolly start to sweat then.
EstJ,
If there is I hope he is more like the first one,
has costello been asked if he will stay on if the liberal’s lose the election
he would probably say it’s a hypothetical question and won’t answer it, i think it is quite relevant , with polls predicting a large labor win and the voters in higgins need an assurance that costello will stay and not cut and run
it may be a more relevant question for the liberals ,not who is in the ministry but who will stay if they lose
Coota Bulldog,
I would agree that aggregating polls over 3 or 6 months was a dubious exercise if there had been a definite trend over the period so that the situation at the end of the period was clearly different to that at the start. However, that has not been the case here. The swing to Labor was rock solid throughout the aggregation periods and is very close to the swing shown in the current polls.
Yes, the sample sizes for SA and WA in each poll are small. That’s why the aggregated figures have more relevance.
“Hackers raid Liberals’ official site”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22561561-12377,00.html
ok, own up.
Pancho where is Kevin to claim its a Liberal dirt unit. lol, lol.
I’m eagerly awaiting the Milne expose.
Curse my ability to conjure up vivid mental images…
Spits or swallows?
More factional infighting.
@ 14 Enemy Combatant Says:
I thought that was what Trish used to do…
@ 20 Ozymandias Says:
The new funereal partnership of Ruddock and Andrews has just purchased $500 000 of YP advertising I believe.
BTW where does Andrews get those ears? Are they supplied daily from some small goods factory and glued on?
Completely stupid. Whoever did that is an idiot.
Off topic of course.
I have no problem with aggregated polling at all, but think it should be provided with context if there is significant movement within a particular group. Since the polling has been remarkably stable for the year, I don’t think it’s too much to ask to at least look at the aggregated polling.
Again, these Advertiser polls have been wrong in the past, particularly this far from an election. Advertiser polls showed Labor in front in several seats before the ’04 election campaign. They also showed the state Liberal Party in front in a few seats in the last SA state election, only for the ALP to win them all comfortably. We need to take them at face value though, give them a slight benefit of the doubt etc. and, as John Howard says, ‘work harder’.
“Liberal candidate Bob Day, who party sources said has spent “hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money” in a bid to win the key seat, has raised eyebrows in some sections of the party for his unorthodox campaign approach. ”
I would like to know what the unorthodox campaign approch is?
I tend to agree with the assumption expressed earlier that perhaps only three seats will fall in SA. I think Makin is certain to fall to Labor.
John: Handing out Bob Day “showbags” to every voter might be considered unorthodox. Who could possibly do without their own Bob Day ruler ?
Lol, I love his work. Thanks Matthew.
This is a great result for the ALP. I have said it before and I will say it again; Trish Draper is not a popular member and her retirement will not hurt the Liberals. At the last election there was a definate swing against Draper, even though Makin was the sort of seat that should have swung quite strongly in her favour. Instead it swung almost 3% to the ALP. Effectively the swing needed in Makin is much greater than the 1% margin suggests, so again I say, this is a great result for the ALP.
ALP will win Kingston, Wakefield and Makin.
And that’s all.
These polls once again show trends and not reality on the day of the election.
Three seats is all we need in SA. We will get two in Tassie, one in WA, two in Vic and the rest will come north of the Murray
Advertiser polling is done, I believe, by classified ad phone girls following guidelines set out originally by Professor Dean Jaensch. These polls have a pretty good record over time. Because of the sample size, you’d have to trust them ahead of the national polls for SA. However, there is an error factor of about 4 percent and they are only a snapshot in time, not a predictor of what will happen on election day. Labor Party sources say they have been polling better in Sturt and Boothby than shown by the Tiser. Labor is putting extra resouces into Grey but it would have to be a longshot.
the Advertiser does it’s own polling in house, they have about 20 casual telephonists they book up about two weeks in advance who make the calls usually on a tuesday night, they then put their own idea of tpp together, then we get the results wednesday.
What 2 in Vic?
HarryH, sorry to mess up your conspiricy theory, i also know who the members of the notorious adelaide “family” are.
Howard might want to bang on about a full employment goal this election but the truth seems to be he intends to achieve it by slashing non-executive wages. I guess if we all took 30% pay cuts there could be 100% employment. AND if we all were willing to enjoy ‘3rd world’ living standards we could increase big business profits by 10%.
WorkChoices has turned out to be a ruse to slash wages and conditions. This is what will bite during the campaign proper.
An email joke doing the rounds:
HOW TO START YOUR DAY WITH A POSITIVE ATTITUDE:
1. Create a “new folder” on your computer.
2. Name it “John Howard”
3. Send it to the trash.
4. Empty the trash.
5. Your computer will ask you: “Do you really want to get rid of “John Howard”?
6. Answer calmly, “Yes,” and press the mouse button.
7. Repeat, as required.
Kina, I just took your 7-step program to wellness… and I feel great! Such catharsis (a better Greek word than hubris).
I’m surprised I have to ponit this out to you Edward but a 5% swing in Makin doesn’t necessarily mean the swing is that small in all other SA seats.