Morgan phone poll: 59-41

Possibly presaging a future pattern of early-week phone polls to tie us over until the Friday face-to-face, Roy Morgan brings us a phone survey of 611 respondents showing Labor leading the Coalition 59-41 on two-party preferred, and by 50 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote. Morgan alternated between phone surveys and larger-sample face-to-face polls until the end of August, after which it moved exclusively to face-to-face.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

495 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 59-41”

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  3. Possum-
    perfect!!

    Night all –
    I’ll leave all you boys to discuss what should happen when 2 people have sex and an unplanned pregnancy results. We may have slightly different takes on the outcomes: ie -potentially the impact on the next 20 something years of a woman’s life for the sake of a fun 10 minutes or so, but I’m sure you all know best.

  5. [I hate people who oppose abortion and than carry on about single mothers and welfare payments, such as Tony Abbott.]

    THeir solution to that are Shotgun Weddings and/or adoptioon or locking said mother and child in a room and hide them from being seen in public.

  6. Nah ESJ, Taiwanese politics is the way to go – you get to mimic your favourite professional wrestler and throw chairs at blokes you dont like.

    And let’s face it, who never wanted to throw a chair at Don Randall, Peter Slipper or Anthony Albanese before 🙂

  8. Taiwanese politics, now that is what i call democracy in action, may the best chair thrower, puncher or wrestler win. A very quick way to sort the problems instead of inhouse subcommittees wrangling over issues. Would also save alot of taxes as well… oh now hang on how about the medical bills…

  9. Possum – You are the coolest. I forgot all about those maniacs in Taiwan.

    If only they had translations on the net.

    Good night all – the valet is ordering me to bed, sweets dreams and as Lawsie says “you be kind to each other”

  10. Blanket stereotypes/condemnations/diagnoses along left/right lines are not particularly useful or interesting on a site like this, the more so since many Australians don’t conform to said stereotypes.

    Shows On said:

    I don’t understand Kelly’s point. Apparently Howardism is now the consensus in Australian politics. But if so, why does it seem Howard is about to be kicked out?

    The pundits have not yet come to terms with Howard’s likely downfall. Even when they attempt to seriously contemplate the reasons for this, they tend to go for relatively trivial explanations (Howard’s age, the ‘it’s time factor’, Rudd has a less ridiculous haircut, etc) rather than explanations that take voters seriously, and analyse the poll results as a clear repudiation of (some of) Howard’s policies.

  11. [The pundits have not yet come to terms with Howard’s likely downfall. Even when they attempt to seriously contemplate the reasons for this, they tend to go for relatively trivial explanations (Howard’s age, the ‘it’s time factor’, Rudd has a less ridiculous haircut, etc) rather than explanations that take voters seriously, and analyse the poll results as a clear repudiation of (some of) Howard’s policies.]

    I agree. It seems reasonable that WorkChoices is one of those policies that people are motivated to vote against. But even setting that big blunder aside, Kelly still seems to think generally Australians approve of what Howard has done.

    At the other extreme, Hugh McKay seems to think most Australians are now waking up from a kind of slumber where we only concentrated on ourselves, and didn’t think of refugees, Aboriginies, other minorities, and all the other cultural issues that people associate with Keating’s cultural agenda.

    It seems to me the truth is somewhere in the middle, and more banal reasons such as “It’s Time” are just as likely reasons for Howard’s decline in the polls. I hope it isn’t ONLY that, I hope another reason is that people now see Howard as a tricky opportunist, who’s main policy seems to be whatever keeps him in power. I think he over reached with WorkChoices because he simply wanted to be remembered as the Liberal who smashed the unions. It seems that he didn’t understand that a lot of people actually like the pay and conditions that unions have fought for and won, EVEN IF they aren’t themselves union members!

    (Which incidently is one of the major problems with Keating’s enterprise bargaining system. Once an EBA is signed, everyone benefits from it, union member or non-union member. Perhaps this sped up the decline of union membership)

  12. There are some paradoxes regarding the Howard era. On the one hand, I think the electorate has become quite cynical and disengaged from politics, as Hugh Mackay suggested. Standards of ministerial accountability are so low that many of us assume that a pollie is lying every time they speak.

    On the other hand, this year has seen a more ‘politicised’ atmosphere take over. Political ads are everywhere, whether funded by the Libs, the Unions, or the Greens, etc. Many people are probably sick of it all, and still cynical, but some people may have become more engaged with the issues.

    Also, as has been pointed out on this blog and others, there’s been a growing distance between the mindset of the Canberra/media Coalition, and people in voterland. The scare campaign run by both against the Unions is a good example – how many people could there possibly be in Australia who are trembling at the thought of a Labor Govt, simply because of union influence? The same people are voting Labor in the States. Union members in the public service often have little positive to say about their State Governments, and don’t experience much influence from ‘union bosses’ at all.

  13. Howard to me is finished for a number of reasons..
    that being combined into one interest rate rises, insecurity of employment and conditions at work, lack of spending on social infrastructure- health and education and forcing people into debt just to survive to get such requirements.
    His style of politics- his method, that being people are sick of the same messages, scare tactics, weasal words, playing the man, advertising spending..
    A lack of ideas or has failed to go with the way society is going on issues such as climate change, war in Iraq etc..
    Rudd is seen as a new boy who speaks the language and plays the game and as an appealing new lad who has the intelligence and smarts to be a leader…
    As sterotypes go Rudd is also more attractive to look at than Howard and i am afraid ( as shallow as it sounds) this is also a reason people want him.

  14. [that being combined into one interest rate rises, insecurity of employment and conditions at work, lack of spending on social infrastructure- health and education and forcing people into debt just to survive to get such requirements.]

    As a list this is a pretty good start. Maybe Howard’s increase in welfare payments to families has now just generated a greater expectation that the government should contribute even more to families.

    However now Howard is stuck needing to buy an election, but he can’t do it without adding pressure to inflation. His old tactic can’t be used just at the time when he needs it the most.

    [Rudd is seen as a new boy who speaks the language and plays the game and as an appealing new lad who has the intelligence and smarts to be a leader…]

    Rudd doesn’t look threatening. I know it is anecdotal, but on the day Latham became leader I was in a book store. It was announced on a radio, and as it was announced this well off looking lady said “Damn, I wish Rudd was the leader”. This lady was for all money a Liberal voter, but it seems Rudd has some sort of appeal as being a Liberal in Labor clothing.

  15. Here’s a poll-related question:

    Why doesn’t a newspaper commission a poll simply asking voters to rank their issues of concern? The results could be analysed and weighted according to voting preference, and then everyone would have some vague idea of some of the issues driving poll results. As it stands, they seem to persist with silly push-polling, with questions such as – ‘Do you think unions will get too much control etc.?’.

  18. Polls like that always produce the same results – health, education, environment, world peace – because those are the issues people know they ought to care about most. No-one will answer “how much money I get in my pocket,” but in fact that is the dominant issue for most people most of the time, and not unreasonably. “It’s the economy, stupid.” That’s why interest rates was a killer for L*th*m last time, and why WorkChoices is a killer for Howard this time. History will record that Howard was the only PM dumb enough to attack the living standards of the key demographic that put him into power.

  19. its weird, a quick surf, and only in Vic is the death penalty thing frontpage news

    from the left perspective in the age (how dare Rudd condone death penalty)

    and the right in the herald (how dare labor support bali bombers)

    or is it just me?

  20. [http://www.theage.com.au/frontpage/2007/10/10/frontpage.pdf]

    That’s a great one sided article by Tony Wright. Why didn’t he bother pointing out the inconsistency of the government’s policy, including the P.M. contradicting himself in the space of 45 seconds? Why didn’t he mention Costello accusing Rudd of “supporting” terrorists?

  22. [ http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22560090-5006301,00.html ]

    “Liberal candidate Bob Day, who party sources said has spent “hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money” in a bid to win the key seat, has raised eyebrows in some sections of the party for his unorthodox campaign approach. ”

    I wonder if the reference to “unorthodox campaign approach” includes having a dozen year 7 students wandering around aimlessly in shopping centres with Bob Day: “Makin’ it happen” t-shirts.

  26. The 19th century Victorian radical conscience lives on in the pages of The Age. Don’t forget how proud The Age is of its campaign against the death penalty in the 1960s. For them that’s what this is all about. And a lot of people in Kew and Brighton will agree.

  29. 470
    ShowsOn Says:

    That’s a great one sided article by Tony Wright. Why didn’t he bother pointing out …

    I suppose it’s a lesson in how to dog whistle. It looks like you have to let the issue fade instead of killing it.

  30. Yeah

    Rudd is a control freak, that is known…

    He has to learn to take a hit, let it run sometimes.

    Lets hope it gives ratty enough false hope to call the big day sooner rather than later.

  31. A friend recounted Tony Wright disserting on radio local Tuesday morning, some actuals on Prime Ministers delaying the due election.

    I cannot quote, as is hearsay, yet apparently TW cited all the occasions on which a PM has delayed the election date beyond the more or less anticipated, and to what degree they were soundly thrashed out of office.

    So, good, that Howard either allows Parliament to convene, or goes to wherever he otherwise chooses. Same no APEC bounce.

  32. ShowsOn Says:
    October 9th, 2007 at 9:44 pm

    [Howard is opposed to the death penalty. But not if someone else does it somewhere else.
    In other words he is not opposed to the death penalty…
    or have I missed something?]
    u n i are mates

  33. I worked myself up into a bit of a state trying to write about the topic of the day. Then I gave myself a good talking to. I realised that I am sick of heated arguments with people over these kinds of issues.

    I’d say that Rudd has largely defused the issue and got plenty of airtime for his stance and ultimately it will be that which resonates with voters. The policy that McLelland was articulating will stand however the foreign affairs job is probably up for grabs if Labor wins. Rudd and Beasley have been Labor’s foreign affairs mainstays since Gareth Evans’ retirement. I wonder who else will emerge as a serious candidate. McLelland might yet hold on.

    Given the talent amongst ALP candidates who are rated a chance to win seats at this election, Rudd is wise to allow himself flexibility in choosing a ministry if elected, rather than locking himself in to avoid cheap hits from the government. This signals that his aim is not just to win, but to govern prudently.

  34. It appears the Indonesian Government are reconsidering their stance on Capital Punishment.

    [INDONESIAN Attorney-General Hendarman Supandji has shied away from supporting capital punishment and suggested delays in the execution of convicted Bali bombers.

    The comments bring hope to six of the Australian “Bali nine” drug couriers on death row in Bali, some of whom have been challenging their sentences.

    During a Fairfax interview Mr Supandji said a constitutional court ruling on the issue was expected soon and if it decided against capital punishment, the Government would implement the decision.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22561355-12377,00.html

  35. More Pork, this time in NSW.

    [The Federal Government is announcing more money for roads today, with a promise of $2.4 billion to upgrade the Pacific Highway.

    Prime Minister John Howard will join Transport Minister Mark Vaile today in Grafton, which is in the marginal seat of Page in northern New South Wales, to announce the money. ]

    But I like this bit from Labor.

    [Labor is calling it smoke and mirrors, saying the money is coming out of the road infrastructure fund previously announced.

    The Opposition remains optimistic that Labor candidate Janelle Saffin can win the seat of Page from the Nationals, as sitting member Ian Causley is retiring.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/10/2055282.htm?section=justin

  36. Adam #410: You must have missed the memo – jen isn’t going into politics, she’s standing for the Greens instead. Number 2, even.

    Sorry, jen, cheap shot. I’ll still vote for you. Well, after I vote for RDN anyway.

    As for the rest of you tykes, to quote Martin di Stasio, “I’ve been listening to the debate and the Serbs say it was the Croatians’ fault and the Croatians blame the Serbs. But, in my opinion, it’s the Serbs’ fault.”

  37. I think Saturday is a possible day for Howard to call the election. I think McClelland’s statements on the death penalty will help him a little bit, probably more than anything else has helped recently, anyway.

    Friday is the 5th anniversary of the Bali bombings, and he’ll be able to look suitably serious and security-conscious.

    Then again, I thought he’d call the election last month.

  39. The death penalty issue (what was McClelland on?) will get some publicity for the next week or so with the Bali anniversary but will fade as the campaign gets going. Fortunately, Rudd has the benefit of a Downer document (on 7.30 Report last nite) where Lord Downer states he rejects the death penalty in all cases. Phew! I can’t believe Howard would leave the country for even five minutes from now on. I think he is just playing with Rudd’s mind – he will call the election this weekend, probably for Dec 1.

  41. Possum @ #456
    and Eric Abetz and Jackie kelly and Christopher Pyne and George Brandis and Sophie Mirrabella (with Sophie it’s not just the chair but the whole office suite including bookcases) Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Bill (feral heterosexual) Heffernan and Harry Quick. And a special mention to Rod (Elmer Fudd) Kemp – gone but not forgotten.

  42. Quick question to the cognisenti. Been on the road with work and had alot of time to ask all the taxi drivers (bar one) who they think will win the election. Everyone of them said Liberal even though they all knew that the opinion polls all strongly suggest an ALP win. All said that the 35 yrs had mortgages and hadn’t forgotten the Keating years so are reluctant to swing to the ALP. For them it was workchoices vs unemployment.

    So my question is this: betting vs taxi drivers vs opinion polls, who historically gets it right?

  44. I may be going blind but it seems news limited’s wonderful electorate review has left out the seat of Soloman:

    OC, it comes up if you enter Darwin’s postcode (0800) in “Postcode Search”, but clicking on the electorate on the map doesn’t work.

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