Advertiser Makin poll

The Adelaide Advertiser keeps cranking out those opinion polls, as it did in the lead-up to the state election last March. This time it’s a survey of 662 voters in the north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin, retained by the Liberals in 2004 by just 0.9 per cent after a backlash against the sitting member, the now-retiring Trish Draper. Despite Liberal candidate Bob Day’s massive self-funded campaign, the poll shows a 54-46 lead for Labor’s Tony Zappia, who holds a primary vote lead of 45 per cent to 38 per cent. Further questions asked in the survey suggest that the loss of Draper’s personal vote has very little to do with the swing, despite recent reports the Liberals were begging her to reverse her decision to retire. The mystery of who actually conducts these Advertiser polls remains, to the best of my knowledge, unsolved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

284 comments on “Advertiser Makin poll”

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  1. Dario (247)
    Sky News is almost as bad as Fox News in the US for its reporting. Nobody watches it anyway.

    According to Jon Stewart – VP Dick Cheney (the one who shoots his friends in the face, amongst other dastardly deeds) insists on having ONLY Fox news channel showing on EVERY TV in each hotel room he stays in.

    Also on ABC radio this morning, Virginia Trioli was speaking to David Speers from Rupe’s Sky and he said that ‘Her Excellency the acting Governor-General (noooooo not Janette), was travelling to Canberra for a few days’

    Has anyone got any update on this situation? Is it necessary for a representative of G-G to be present if Parliament is recalled?

  2. Why, no it is not necessary for the GG to be in Canberra for the beginning of a regular sitting week (which is what it’d be).

    Also note that the government’s routine of business has still not been issued for the next sitting week.

  3. ‘Her Excellency the acting Governor-General (noooooo not Janette), was travelling to Canberra for a few days’

    Interesting, now why would she do that, isn’t the GG back soon?

  4. “The Greeks blame the 1967 coup, in part, on chronic weak government caused by PR.”

    Hm. Maybe. Except every election since 1951 bar one had produced solid single-party majority government. 1964, the last election before the coup, saw the Centre Union with a 171/300 seats. The sucession of 6 different PMs in 18months came after a consitutional showdown with the King split the CU, which has nothing to do with the electoral system and everything to do with political decisions (surprise!)

    In my experience, Greeks blame either the new King or the new Prime Minister for the coup. And a little thing called the Greek Civil War.


  5. ctep 257
    ‘I believe he’s back on Sunday.’
    thanx for info.

    This could all make sense
    Fri 12.10.07 Rememberance Ceremonies for Bali tragedy
    Sat13.10.07 JWH off to Her Excellence Acting G-G???
    Sun14.10.07 Pollies return to Canberra (if Parliament is sitting)
    G-G returns to Oz

  6. Darryl, I did say “in part”, and I didn’t say I necessarily thought they were right. If you talk to many Greeks, you will get many opinions, all passionately argued, as you evidently know enough about Greeks to understand. And of course it’s true that the Greek variant on PR was brought in after the instability of the Papandreou/Mitsotakis period, not after the fall of the military regime in 1974. But, so Greeks have told me, it was the fear that that kind of instability would lead Greece back down the road to 1967 that led to that change being made. Anyway whatever the motivation for it, it is an interesting variant on PR that does deal with one of the principal objections to PR – that it always produced weak minority or coalition governments.

  7. Kiwipundit, you think it takes a long time to form a government in New Zealand? You don’t know you’re born! Take a look at Belgium and the Netherlands. In Belgium right now, just to take the most recent example, it has been _four months_ since the election and the new government still has not been formed.

  8. I think we have a great system, you get >50% of the vote you get elected. If you don’t you need preferences.

    The only people who don’t like it are people who have no hope of getting anywhere near 30% of the vote and are looking for a way to sneak into parliament.

    Forget PR, MMR or whatever, it will never happen. Just like the Greens, Democrats, Family First, Socialist Alliance, Paulines UAP etc will never win a lower house seat.

    Why would you want Govt by commitee? I think that even another Howard Govt. would be preferable.

  9. Messess Hairniness Posuums of elevateedness trees …//.. beholden this trufulness:::: to be gazings upon commmmeralims telly box is to have resultantins of brains cells swifted altogether away to other parts… for heathniness of brains ……..pressing tit off has blessings.

  10. My dearest Derek,

    Thank you for the courtesy of referring to me by name.

    dont means do not or ru being a pedant?

    Why is JWH finished? I can read the polls as well as anyone else – they are real bad for the Libs and have been for months and do look uncannily like those for 1996 in reverse. Hence reading the polls he is a goner

    As to the deeper reasons why the polls are bad I dont know – I dont buy Hicks, Children overboard etc as being reasons and the conventional wisdom is that a good economy sees governments returned. Probably is mundane as people want a change/ maybe 2% of the swing is due to the scare campaign on WorkChoices.

    The reason i dont write him off is it doesnt seem the government is wildly unpopular and politics in Australia is very fickle – is it all decided in the last week when the uncaring and uninterested decide, is there a soft vote? does JWH have tricks to play/ a great campaign strategy up his sleeve? Can he throw up enough doubt about KR and Labor to sneak in? KR didnt have the chance to unambiguously show himself as a moderniser by dumping the unions and hence leaves himself open to that attack.

    I guess all of the maybes will be known very soon as the election is 7 weeks and 8 weeks tops away.

  11. Hugo (179) – What’s with the identity theft? I’ve been contributing here for months, so I’d appreciate it if you could think of a different moniker (though I have no particular issue with what you wrote).


  12. My dear Edward

    Yes. I was being a pedant. Sorry.

    However, I am bemused by your thinking. It’s my belief that the electorate is not “fickle” and does remember Tampa, “not ever a GST” … in short, all the Howard baggage. And that’s the rub.

    John Howard might be re-elected. Anything is on the cards. In the interests of democracy and good government, it would be best if he is defeated. He has done his damage. Now, the country has to repair.

  13. Edward St John

    Loved your analysis right there at 271.

    Summed it up perfectly for me, its worth referring to when considering such controversies:

    What is a soft ALP voter?
    Why is Morgan 5% higher than the rest?
    Why is Rudd finally getting roasted by the Melbourne press for “me-tooism”?
    Why does “workchoices” always come up on this site, yet you can never find someone who is really victimised by it

    All that sort of stuff, you know?

  14. Mr Squiggle:
    “Why does “workchoices” always come up on this site, yet you can never find someone who is really victimised by it”

    Speak for yourself please. Several members of my family are ‘victimised’ by it. I still think its effect is overstated, but to suggest that the effects aren’t real is delusional.

    I agree with Edward on many points, I don’t think Howard is despised as some people on here suggest. I think people have lost trust in him though and don’t believe in him. I think they probably think he’s done a good job but it’s time for him to go now. There is a very real possibility that the Coalition will be returned at the election.

    However, I don’t believe they deserve to be. They think they’re bigger than the public now and have lost touch. They think we can’t live without them, well we can and we will. Australia will move on regardless of the election result.

    Also, by asking “Why is Morgan 5% higher than the rest?” you forget to mention it’s 5% higher than already high results. Even if we disclude the Morgan poll, the other polls have all consistantly, for over a year now, pointed to a huge shift since the last election.

  15. Those interested in the raising of the Age Pension issue might like to read Professor Peter Saunders, of the right wing think tank, the Centre for Independent Studies.

    Saunders is a not infrequent commentator heard on ABC radio, advocating on the absurdity of reliance on the Welfare State. He was a regular cheerleader in the vanguard of changes to the various pensions including disability. One link:

    Lavartus Prodeo
    Milo Minderbender for Treasurer!
    Published by Gummo Trotsky on 31 January 2007 at 4:08 pm in Economics, Poverty, Policy.

    ‘In his latest piece of policy-wonkery, Peter Saunders of the CIS asks:

    … If we could specify how we would like Australia to look towards the middle of this century, would we choose to have government absorbing half of everything we produce, or think it desirable to have large swathes of the population dependent on government services and government hand-outs? Or would we prefer to see an affluent country where most people manage their own affairs without having to rely heavily on government to provide them with what they need?

    Yes, I’m afraid he’s at it again – this time with a grand plan that allows people who want to opt out of the welfare state – like Saunders himself – to do so:…

    But that’s not all – Saunders also proposes that those who can, use their PFF to replace Medicare Cover and superannuation tax breaks in return for opting out of the age pension entitlement. But right now I’ve had it up to my Manchunian back teeth with reading his piffle. Because what he’s advocating isn’t a welfare-state that people can opt out of if they choose – as usual, he’s advocating its complete dismemberment”.

    – I have cut out slabs of Gummo’s piece, but you get the drift. Not surprised that pre election (only) Howard has canned such an idea. Not that I know if Saunders is the mover behind today’s story.

  16. [ As to the deeper reasons why the polls are bad I dont know ]

    God, it’s obvious to most people I talk to. I myself used to be a Liberal supporter and I can’t understand how out of touch the Party has become. If you can’t see what the problems are you’re not talking to real people in the real world.


    Tony got rid of Chris and New York goes to war with New Jersey soon. The last few episodes will be great.

  17. Hi CTEP,

    I don’t doubt people have been effected by Workchoices.

    My question is have they been victimised by it?

    I was one of the 1 million, 13% unemployed when Keating was rewarded for his policies and returned to office is 1993. It took me years to get back into the work force and I’ll never forget the lessons learnt over those years. That’s victimisation

    Nowadays, if some waitress somewhere loses her time and half payrate under a workchoices negotiation, while the country has 4.5% unemployment, then at least they’ve got a job and I can’t call it victimisation.

    I appreciate your point though, at the end of the day, I only speak for myself

  18. Draper most likely blew what personal vote she had in 2004, reflecting in the swing towards Labor while other outer suburban electorates were going the other way.

  19. Crikey Whitey @ 276

    Even if they allow people to opt out of the welfare system, there will be no choice but to let them back in again when they are old and penniless having squandered or gambled their tax benefits on the stock market – what else would you do, let them starve? Gummo’s right, it’s pretty much all or nothing.

  20. Squiggle, there won’t be 4.5% unemployment forever, WC or no WC. And with WC and higher unemployment combined, workers would have so little bargaining power to negotiate wages it’s not funny.

  21. The ‘at least they’ve got a job’ excuse is lame. Are we to say that the unemployment rate (which most believe is doctored beyond belief) is solely attributed to pre-fairness test WorkChoices? No, it’s just not the case. Show me the data that suggests that it is. There has been a relatively low takeup of AWAs yet we’re to believe that without them we wouldn’t have the unemployment rate that we supposedly have. Why?

    If you offer to allow people to remove penalty rates etc. of course some people will take that option. They’ll make more money. Does it mean they wouldn’t hire staff if they couldn’t remove the penalty rates? Not necessarily.

    If we look at the UK, and suggest that because unemployment was high under Thatcher and it’s been lower under Labor, they should never elect the Conservatives again, that’s clearly rubbish. The world will carry on no matter which party is elected. Electing Labor won’t mean that unemployment is going to soar, that’s what Keating said would happen if we elected the Coalition in ’96 (yes, the Coalition still had a bad record from when they were last in government at that stage) and look how that turned out.

  22. “If you talk to many Greeks, you will get many opinions, all passionately argued…”

    At last! Something we can agree on :^)

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