Advertiser Makin poll

The Adelaide Advertiser keeps cranking out those opinion polls, as it did in the lead-up to the state election last March. This time it’s a survey of 662 voters in the north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin, retained by the Liberals in 2004 by just 0.9 per cent after a backlash against the sitting member, the now-retiring Trish Draper. Despite Liberal candidate Bob Day’s massive self-funded campaign, the poll shows a 54-46 lead for Labor’s Tony Zappia, who holds a primary vote lead of 45 per cent to 38 per cent. Further questions asked in the survey suggest that the loss of Draper’s personal vote has very little to do with the swing, despite recent reports the Liberals were begging her to reverse her decision to retire. The mystery of who actually conducts these Advertiser polls remains, to the best of my knowledge, unsolved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

284 comments on “Advertiser Makin poll”

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  2. The Advertiser Polls have been reasonably accurate over the last few years, granted ever so slightly underestimating the Primary vote numbers.

    This latest poll shows a 5% swing in the seat of Makin, the Boothby poll showed a 1% swing (granted, there are local issues causing this), and a 4% swing in Sturt.

    What can bee seen from this is that in labor’s “Safe State” of South Australia, the swing is miles under the 15%, or even 8% expected/hoped for by Labor.

    I’m putting my money on a 4-5% swing statewide, which won’t be enough.

  3. Trish Draper? Wasn’t she the MP who took her lover on that taxpayer-funded overseas trip, while her “significant other” was cooling his heels back home?

    And the Libs begged her to stay?

    I bet the significant other didn’t.

  4. Gary, Edward doesn’t believe this poll is accurate so it makes little difference. I’d be interested to know which seats he believe will change at this election. So far it appears none will according to him, except possibly some Labor seats moving to the Liberal Party.

  5. Re #s 9, 12, 28 & 36 the fact that the polls have not really changed much over the last six months makes the aggregated polling quite credible. The sample sizes for individual states become enormous with aggregation. Last Saturday I commented about the results I got through combining the Nielsen & Newspoll data for the April to September period. For SA it showed an 11.9% swing to Labor with 2.3% error margin.

  6. GB, that’s true. But MF 52 – sums it up nicely if the Tiser is correct than the tsunami which we were promised may just be a reasonably largish wave.

    In my view all things being equal if Howard keeps the 2PP in QLD under 6.1% he wins. Mind you the last quarterly average was 9% on Newspoll so at the moment he is going down but a few McClellands here and a few J “MG Tm” G there and there goes 3%.

  8. I think its worth noting that some of the bigger swings in SA may well come from ALP held seats such as Hindmarsh and Adelaide. Rita Bouras is percieved as being a poor candidate in Hindmarsh, and Steve Georganas contested the seat in 1998 and 2001 before winning in 2004. He thus has a large incumbency factor in his favour. Based on my local knowledge, I would say Hindmarsh could easily swing in the region of 10%.

  9. Apart from stating the obvious that all Liberals are “Showbags”, if it is marketing paraphernalia you want rather than policy, then how about a Coalition Cabinet “Hubric Cube”.

    Six senior Ministers Howard, Costello, Abbott, Downer, Andrews and Nelson. Nine images of each.

    Hours of fun and laughter as you try to line up the faces. (No spitting allowed).

  11. EStJ, i think you overestimate the magnitude of effect for mcclelland, if indeed there is an effect at all. and i think that if there is an effect, it’s transitory.

  13. Bob Day is spending gazillions of dollars (okay, a slight exaggeration) on things like painting his Holden “Bob Day blue”, painting his campaign office “Bob Day blue” and giving away rulers, pens, balloons, shopping list pads etc all in “Bob Day blue”, not to mention running ads in the local Messenger every week and sending out glossy brochures criticizing the local State MPs on State issues.

    On the other hand, Tony Zappia has barely started his campaign at all.

    If there is “only” a 5% swingt to Labor under these circumstances, I think we can assume that once the election is called and Tony starts campaigning properly, this swing will blow out to something closer to 8 or 9%.

    Which reminds me: CALL THE BLOODY ELECTION, HOWARD!

  14. This latest thing Edward will have same the same effect as the other storms in a tea cup. It’ll be over by tomorrow with no gain for the government. Your hopes and dreams will be shattered once more. The problem for the Libs is that they fail to recognise that voter sentiment for Labor is not based on the mistakes Labor is making but the very large and real mistakes the government has made which have affected their lives. Put simply it’s an anti government sentiment rather than a pro Labor one. Hence these errors have little effect.

  16. in fact, EStJ, i think that the spectacle of howard et al puffing about over it is likely to move any effect in the opposite direction to that which you desire. it just makes them look even more desperate than they already are.

  17. Ozymandias #49 says
    “Kina, I just took your 7-step program to wellness… and I feel great! Such catharsis (a better Greek word than hubris).”
    Äccording to the Oxford Dictionary, “catharsis ” means “purgation of the excrements of the body, eg evacuation of the bowels”
    Ozy, you have picked the correct word to describe what the body politic needs to do to JWH… and you can use it without ***. The filters will not pick it up!

  18. Nah, its not the individual events, its the cumulative effect the Liberals are looking for – something which adds up to a view that Labor is not ready for primetime – yesterday on its own insignificant but as a brick in the wall it helps Howard.

  19. In SA, it looks like 3 certain Labor gains, 1 close and 1 improbable from Tiser polling. All Labor needs in SA is the 3 marginals. Labor will annihilate the Libs in Vic, NSW and Qld, the states which contain the most seats.

  22. Just because the polls have stayed static for six months doesn’t mean that you can credibly aggregate them for a particular state and say that’s the result.

    The results from 100 voters in a state in May has very little relevance to another 100 voters in the same state in September or October.

    The ideal of the poll is to get a feel for what voters feel at a particular moment. We use the trend lines to see if there are any changes over a period of time.

    But to throw the numbers together from that extended period of time does not mean they provide an accurate picture of voting intentions.

  23. It looks like only three pick-ups for Labor in SA, but a couple of other seats are close. Labor and the unions will run their slickest, best-funded campaignl ever, so don’t rule anything out.

    By the way, Don Dunstan once sounded Ian Chappell out as a possible Labor candidate for a state election. Chappell is vehemently opposed to the Howard Government’s policy on asylum seekers.

  26. CETP: “Edward, do you really believe what you’re saying or is it just hope?”

    Edward believes, and he’s hoping too. And actually I agree with Edward for once – a McClelland Level Event a week for the next five weeks would build a picture of a bumbling, off-message, inexperienced opposition, and that would be great for Howard.

    It’s exactly what the government needs to scrape back in with that bare five seat majority you keep predicting, CTEP. I would think you’d agree Edward has a point.

    However, the likelihood of snowballing stuff-ups like this happening during the campaign is very low, given the discipline of the team this year. (If it happens, we’ll all be gibbering wrecks in here by mid November.)

  27. # 64 – Gary, Bryan at Ozpolitics disagrees with you. He argues, based on comparative satisfaction ratings over time, that the electorate is in the mood to “buy” Rudd rather than “sell” Howard. This is probably why The Rodent and his attack dogs leap on any potential smear, frothing at the mouth in high dudgeon, hoping to bring down the electorate’s perceptions of the man they’re “buying”.

    Unfortunately, every time they do this, they look shrill and desperate.

  28. Edward StJohn

    Do you realise that Labor can get your 6.1% swing in Qld from only 49% tpp? Are you suggesting that Labor will not get a majority of tpp votes in Qld?

  32. Election tragics on this site will have to wait at least another week and another round of polling before Howard calls the election. Parliament will resume next week – which means he’ll probably call on the GG on Sunday 21st, for a Dec 1 or 8 election. (He just wants to drag it out – why not, nothing to lose, he thinks).

  33. Until parliament sits next week I won’t believe it, and in fact I’m still sure it won’t. I can think of about 2 reasons why he might recall parliament, and I can think of about 200 why he won’t.

  34. I didn’t get a chance to comment on this death penalty ‘gaffe’ yesterday, but I have to say how bizarre I find debate in this country post Howard. It’s now impossible to take a principled stand on anything, lest idiots like Downer descend on your head claiming you’re a ‘friend of terrorists’ or ‘soft on crime’ or you’re ‘protecting child-molesters’. All the point scoring and chasing of the social reactionary vote leads us to the ridiculous situation yesterday where Rudd had to come out and affirm that the ALP’s hypocrisy over the death penalty is just as wide and deep as the Liberal’s hypocrisy over the death penalty.

    And I could see why he had to do it, applauded him for it even. Bizarre.

    Oh yeah, South Australia. Two seats will be plenty, with a five percent swing everywhere else. Surely that’s doable.

  35. Yeah, I agree alpal – I see no reason for Mr. Howard to call the election this weekend. Mr. McClelland ill-judged speech has, in my opinion, ensured that Parliament will resume for at least a week. If only to give the Coalition a chance to belt Mr. Rudd around the head – by underlining Labor’s ‘sympathy’ for the Bali Bombers.

    Remember, with Howard – the more you try to push him – the more stubborn and intransigent he gets. The whole country is now suffering what Mr. Costello has suffered for years.

    The extra time he takes in calling the election gives Labor even more time to prepare – more time to practice in the war room, more time to polish policy and positions. This is all for the good. Time itself doesn’t help the Coalition.

  36. Snakeboy, I’m not convinced. Howard’s Surfchoices I believe is a strong motivation for many people to see him gone. His idea, his legistation. Don’t like it, don’t like him.

  38. Fortunately the average person has no interest in parliament and takes little notice of it. As far as a political tactic goes it is a waste of time. Let’s face it, the way parliament is skewed favourably towards the government of the day, if the election result depended on what happened in parliament this and many other governments before it would have been shoe ins.

  40. On the “methodology” used:
    the potential for a skewed result is obvious.
    A) Phone polls are slightly biased to the Coalition… see Roy Morgan’s comments on his last phone poll, vs the nearly simultaneous face to face.
    B) the figures published are almost certainly raw figures. If, for example, under 25’s are under represented & over 60’s over represented, this would skew the results towards the coalition ( and of course the other way if the under 25’s were over reported).. Professional pollsters adjust their raw figures to allow for these effects.

    It would be interesting to hear from someone who had actually been polled. The way the questions were phrased can make a huge difference.

    I would rate these polls as more reliable than the “on line” polls, but less reliable than Morgan ( who I think is the least reliable of the professionals. ) The workers on the ground in Makin can use them to guage the effectiveness of their efforts, but I would certainly not try to extrapolate them to statewide, or nationwide figures.

  41. Anyone know what business the parliament has before it of importance? Or are we resuming for a week of consequential amendments?

  42. I’m dubious about any backlash against McClelland’s comments. The ALP should stick to its principles, and keep replaying that footage of Amrosi laughing and giving the thumbs up when his death sentence was announced. “John Howard will give Amrosi what he wants -martyrdom” should be the tag-line.

  44. Problem is most Australians will agree with both Amrosi and John Howard about giving him what he wants. Seriously, I was shocked out here in the whoop-whoops just how popular the hanging of Van Nguyen was – honest. I feel confident that the hanging of a number of the Bali 9 would also be popular (maybe not the young white fella – too close to too many wayward sons – but the others… definitely.)

  46. The Victorian press is making a real meal out of this death penalty controversy today. Banner headlines on the front pages of both major newspapers and the air waves are also full of it. How is it playing out in other states?

    For what it’s worth I think they are wasting their time. It’s not going to make any difference.

    Edward (68) It may be a brick for Howard’s wall (as you put it) but time is running out fast and at the moment he hasn’t got enough material to build a bark humpy.

  48. Crispy @ 84

    I agree. What really irritates me is when the media attack Labor for “betraying their principles”, but they say nothing about the Coalition trying to use gutter-level wedge politics.

    Labor has little choice here:
    – if they support McClelland’s comments they are terrorist sympathisers
    – if they reject McClelland’s comments they are weak and do not stand for anything

    If the government and media were able to engage in an intelligent discussion about issues like this, then it would be possible to take an entirely principled stance. But instead they scream “terrorists!” and point their finger at the ALP.

    The media should be having a go at the Coalition for making intelligent debate all but impossible, not the ALP for throwing up their defences against wedge politics.

    Sadly the high moral ground is easily attacked from the gutter.

  49. 84
    Crispy Says:
    October 10th, 2007 at 11:13 am
    I didn’t get a chance to comment on this death penalty ‘gaffe’ yesterday, but I have to say how bizarre I find debate in this country post Howard. It’s now impossible to take a principled stand on anything, lest idiots like Downer descend on your head claiming you’re a ‘friend of terrorists’ or ’soft on crime’ or you’re ‘protecting child-molesters’. All the point scoring and chasing of the social reactionary vote leads us to the ridiculous situation yesterday where Rudd had to come out and affirm that the ALP’s hypocrisy over the death penalty is just as wide and deep as the Liberal’s hypocrisy over the death penalty.

    And I could see why he had to do it, applauded him for it even. Bizarre.

    Oh yeah, South Australia. Two seats will be plenty, with a five percent swing everywhere else. Surely that’s doable.

    The problem is that the press support this type of simplistic take on politics. They wont ridicule the childish logic used by Downer and Howard to make stupid comments as they do. They simply print them as headlines with no critical analysis. It further encourages politicians to play dumb wedge politics with no substance.

    For instance when Rudd made a trivial error on the tax scales the press ran it as a major issue but ignored the rudimentary misunderstanding Costello [the Treasurer no less] showed on how tax scales actually work and his lack of knowledge of the size of his own tax cuts. This should have been the real matter of concern – a Treasurer of 11 years actually doesnt know how simple tax scales are applied. But no, they run with the simplistic ignorant headline with no thought or evaluation of reality neccessary.

    The standard of the press needs to improve and unfortunately due to lack of competition thats not likely to happen – not to mention the right wing ownership of News Ltd.

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