ACNielsen: 56-44

Tasmanian reader Blackbird informs us that according to the ABC news (which goes to air earlier in Tasmania because daylight saving has already begun there), tomorrow’s ACNielsen poll will show Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44, down from 57-43 last month. More details to follow.

UPDATE: Labor’s primary vote is down two points from last month to 47 per cent, while the Coalition is up one to 40 per cent. There were further attitudinal questions which you can read all about at The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

615 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

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  2. Thanks Pauline, that gives me cause to sleep well tonight. I was hoping to come on and find people commenting about whispers of an election call, but alas, my theory that JWH wants to keep his hand in the sand for as long as possible remains plausible. Damn it.

  3. Thanks, William. Home again.

    We curled up at JWH on the telly, tracksuiting. Lead the rousing song ‘The Old Grey Mare, he ain’t what he used to be..’

    All in exasperated wait.

  5. Pauline that is a massive preferred PM lead for Rudd. The PPM figures have corresponded closely to the primary vote figures for quite a while. This is a huge swing for Rudd.

  8. I’m intrigued ESJ, tell me more. If you’ve already mentioned it elsewhere, please excuse my reading skills.Or are you of British extraction and a member of the conservative party ?

  10. I think Howard has a pyschological dilemma. He clearly loves being PM, living in Kirribilli and being Mrs Howard’s great knight. He loves being the tough deputy to Mr Bush and the voice of authority.

    He cannot really contemplate being plain John. That would inimical to his very idea of who he is and what he stands for.

    He also doubtless thinks he is better than all the rest: better than Downer and Costello; better than Peacock, Hewson and Fraser; better than Keating, Crean, Beazley & Latham; better than Rudd too. He thinks he is the one.

    He should have walked a year ago and didn’t and now he has to validate the logic of his decision: he has to win. He just can’t lose! It will break him in half. He cannot face being told to wise up by the Australian people. It must be eating him up, every minute of every day.

    The trouble is, the longer he waits, the greater will be the defeat. People want to vote and they want to vote for change. By frustrating the people, he will ensure their expression becomes all the more emphatic.

    In the end, I think Downer or Costello will have to call the election for him. He just can’t do it.

  11. From the previous thread, but to answer John Rocket’s ALP & union membership question in a little more depth from a ‘technical’ angle – you are eligible to be a member of a union only if you are an ’employee’ doing a particular type of work – like truck driving you must generally be a TWU member).
    If you are self-employed you are generally not eligible for union membership in NSW, because unions only cover ’employees’, except for the transport industry, where ‘owner-drivers’, self-employed couriers and taxi drivers can be TWU members.
    It follows that no self-employed person needs to join a union to be a member of the ALP, except for the transport industry contractors and taxi drivers.
    If you are a managerial employee, there is a union you can join, called APESMA, the Association of Professional, Engineering Scientific and Managerial Associations – apologies if I have misnamed it, so technically even the Managing Director of BHP-Billiton would have to join APESMA if that person wanted to be an ALP member i.e. there is a union even for ‘bosses’.
    Even employed solicitors in private firms are eligible to be union members .
    There are also people who are ‘award free’, who no union has sought to cover – don’t know what would happen to them if they tried to join. Unless you’re in the middle of an ALP branch-stacking war, no one in the ALP much cares about enforcement of this rule. Kevvie’s missus didn’t need to be a union member as she was self-employed.
    Adam quite rightly states there are state by state variations for the ALP ‘union membership’ rule.

  12. Greg, you are right about the “wait” and “desperation” being non-issues once the election is called. But up untill that point it will only get worse and the media will be cloged with stories about Howard’s desperate wait, preventing the Libs from getting any traction. Howard must call the election by Saturday.

  13. ESJ at 141,

    I doubt that Rudd would risk putting George Williams as a nominee for the High Court in his first term. His well-publicised views will probably be considered too progressive at this stage – a more likely nominee for a High Court position would be Chief Justice James Spiegelman of the NSW Supreme Court. The fact that Williams is a well-known member of the Labor party makes it even less likely that a newly elected Rudd government would appoint him to the bench.

    I would think that Rudd may try to bring Williams into parliament next time around (assuming, of course, Rudd wins this time) – maybe (hopefully) into the newly safe Labor seat of Lowe. That’s pure speculation, but it would allow Rudd to make Williams the new A-G – a role that he would probably prefer than going straight to the HC.

  14. 158 MS

    Nope, Australian citizen in a registered Australian political Party. Cant say more than that without giving myself away.

    160 Blindoptimist

    Interesting pyschoanalysis.

    I think he is just very ordinary and very practical in a political sense, which is a big part of why people on the left of the ALP and Greens just cant get it.

    I have met the son in law, had expected him to be a jerk (being a reverend’s son) but was pleasantly surprised was great company and very coy in ever mentioning the Howards but also strongly anti-union (no surprises there). If he is anything like the son-in-law then I think your views dont add up.

  15. As long as the election is by 1 December, the wider electorate will not care. The timing of it is a ‘beltway’/’insider’ issue. The election will be called by next Sunday at the latest, for November 24.

    Imagine if Costello did give the game away on Grand Final day after comparing the excitement to the last Saturday of September to the last Saturday of November.

    Not very discreet for a new leader of the opposition.

  16. Jen, I’m probably one of the very few people who looks at the Greens website every single day. I know that little Bob Brown popup speech by heart. In fact I look at all the party websites every day. The Greens’ is one of the better ones although it has a few bugs in it.

  17. 147
    Pauline Says:
    October 7th, 2007 at 10:56 pm
    The primaries are 47/40 – from a reliable source
    Also Rudd is preferred over Howard on trust and vision
    Rudd is PPM by a massive 52-39

    39% prefer Howard – given that the LNP primary is 40% does this mean 1% are voting LNP but prefer Rudd? Another soft 1% up for grabs?

    Which suggests to me that 56 is maybe a 56+ since the last poll had the high 53/39 PPM as well.

    http://au.acnielsen.com/news/documents/NielsenPoll2007.pdf

  18. For the first time, I think it is safe to say, John Howard is paralysed. In elections past, he always had a some kind of plan at least; something that resembled a strategy. Now he just has denial and confusion.

    Poor John Howard, man of the past: like Narcissus, mesmerized by his own image and so undone.

  19. Does it matter?

    I was watching the SA footy finals, as bad as, reading a recent Bulletin to pass the time. The cover features Julia as a ‘Red.’ The article itself is less outrageous. Struck in particular by the final para or so. Don’t have the mag here, so cannot quote, but it was about what of Kevin and Julia should the election be lost?

    Thought developed instantly that the voters will not allow this opportunity to pass them by. Another minus for the old guy.

  20. All this speculation on the election date

    Howard has dropped more than enough hints, that it will be in the first week of December,

    I think we should take him at his word, it will be early December

  21. Harry –
    You’re sure it’s not 8 letters starting with s and ending with d and rhymes with pit-bed?
    otherwise I’d say scared.

  22. ESJ, his very ordinariness confirms my thesis. He wants to be the greatest ever. Defeat will make him ordinary again!!!

  24. Well I think to be a national major party leader you would have to have a massive ego – goes with the territory. They all find it hard to walk away particularly the ones who taste success.

  25. Adam.
    I’m sure the Greens website has a few bugs in it.
    However I’m sure this is an infinite improvement on what the Liberal part site has: a veritible plague.

  26. I would like to see a cartoon of Howard as a rabbit transfixed by the lights of an oncoming Election Truck, on a dark and stormy night.

  27. ALP has been ahead in the ACN polls for 18 months now. Also if anything this latest poll is proof that the obscene Govt Ads have failed.

    If by some weird logic the polls are to magically change and tighten by the calling of the election campaign and this is the circuit breaker/rabbit that is needed, then why hasn’t Howard called it.

    He has not called it because he doesn’t think he can win on current polling with or without campaign. So Howard himself does not believe in the tightening or at least not enough to win.

    Howard is running out options and out time. The rabbit in the hat is the bunny rabbit running scared…

  29. [ 164
    Edward StJohn

    Cant say more than that without giving myself away. ]

    What’s wrong Eddie? Ashamed to come out of your extreme right wing closet. Have the courage of your convictions. Confession is good for the soul.

  31. 173
    Edward StJohn Says:
    October 7th, 2007 at 11:27 pm
    Well I think to be a national major party leader you would have to have a massive ego –
    …..
    Exactly, and that is John Howard’s greatest flaw. We have a PM who is not reconciled to his own fallibility and humanity. He thinks he has become a legend. He classes himself above Menzies and Hawke and all the rest. Defeat is something he endured before: it was mere training for great victories. Defeat was not scripted into his future. He cannot come at it.

  33. re Turnbull decision and mill playing out in states.
    Today’s Sunday Telegraph had a big story about Wentworth ALP candidate George Newhouse’s ex Dannielle Ecuyer and her Women for Change Alliance. Malcolm Farr in the same paper has a rave in which he punts for a Lib win in Bass, Braddon & Wentworth (can he be serious?) as well as a spray about people living in Woollahra & Kings Cross and the Climate Change Coalition. The local papers are out defending their coverage of the Mill (thus increasing the coverage), and we have Charles Wooley on his syndicated Macquarie Regional Radio network show spending an entire morning talking about the Mill. Even SMH’s Alan Ramsey is getting in on the Act pointing out the Mill agreement is for 50 years…

    So, I think there HAS been an impact in the mainland media, but whether it translates into votes for Greens or Labor is another question. I suspect it will play out in the Senate for the Greens, where Kerry Nettle’s chances are improved, Bob Brown would be looking much safer, and perhaps Richard Di Natale (Vic) & Scott Ludlam (WA) would be improved chances too. However, in the Reps it will be mostly a bit of a dead fish, as I strongly suspect people have already shifted off Howard to Rudd – thus the stable polls – which is where the main game is.

    BTW, General Wenck first tried to breakthrough to Berlin, but then turned around and broke through to the Elbe to surrender to the US forces. So when Glen (or others) talk about General Wenck breaking through (apart from the odious self-reference to Nazism) they are just as likely to be talking about giving up and running away…

  34. Paul K
    I agree. What is with all this secrecy?
    You have declared yourself ( and I still have a soft spot for the Dems – bloody Meg Lees did you guys in).
    I am completely upfront about my memebership and candidacy for the Greens.
    Adam and others make no bones about their allegiance to Labor –
    so what is it with the secret Lib and Fundie supporters – do they really think we won’t notice?
    God Bless Democracy and all who sail in her. And just let us have a bloody election so we can exercise our basic rights.

  35. Imagine if Howard had retired in July 2006, second longest prime minister, increasing his majority twice. With the IR reforms bedded down he could have easily blamed Costello for the subsequent election loss. He had the option of going out like Menzies but couldnt give it up.

  36. Reckon the pulp mill looks like the new Franklin.

    When governments fail to hear, the people realise trust in the process is lost and that they must act.

  37. 我需要睡覺 . 再見
    ไปก่อนนะ, ลาก่อน
    Tomorrow, lah.

  38. Jen,

    You might have me confused with someone else. I’m an ex-Liberal Party supporter who has been turned off by their swing to the hard right under Howard, a small l Liberal if you will. Labor has also swung to the right to the degree that I now feel comfortable with Rudd. I hate all extremists, left and right. Dislike the Neo-Cons with a passion.

    Edward, I believe from many of his comments, is a hard right winger, much further to the right than the Libs and also with a religious bent. Wouldn’t be surprised if he has cups of tea with Fred Nile or is an Exclusive Brethren type. His comments are typical of people with a religious view of politics.

  39. Jen, the national Lib website is fair to average, the state ones range from excellent (Qld) to woeful (WA). Labor’s are all competent without being brilliant, and the state ones are rather parochial. (Hello, SA and Tas, there’s a federal election on!). The Nats one is surprisingly good (and even greener than yours). The Dems ones are pretty amateurish though NSW is quite good. Family First is good but a bit gimmicky.

  40. And 75 Frank Calabrese

    ‘More attempted Rudd Smearing.

    [Reports that Labor Leader Kevin Rudd made an offer to buy a Queensland beach house worth $5 million do not make him look bad, Opposition Immigration spokesman Tony Burke says’.

    It would be at their private expense, rather than Kirribilli at our expense.

  41. the dig at Rudds new house seems to me to be ridiculous (if it is Libs pushing it).

    surely this just plays into the scenario of wavering Libs liking him even more.

  44. Well, 47-40 is what I said it was after Morgan’s fantasy on Friday, and 47-40 is what it says in ACN today… wake up people: Morgan is rubbish.

  45. Adam,
    I was delighted to see your self-reference as a pedant aka a pain in the arse. The latter description reminded me of a favourite Patrick Cook cartoon many moons ago. Some fairly ill-defined curves which could only be specified by the context had a smiling everyman figure emerging, with the sound bubble, “that’s amazing, I was a pain in the arse in a previous existence as well”.
    I didn’t see your message, Saturday evening, as I needed an early night. Yesterday morning, I ran the Melbourne marathon in my Kevin07 t-shirt, and had quite a good reaction – more so in Melbourne Ports than in Goldstein.

  47. #195 is of course a reference to the previous thread, the closed one on Westpoll.
    Btw, A-C, unless the polls move significantly back towards the Government, Deakin will be swamped like a lot of other seats, irrespective of Phil Barresi’s personal qualities. Labor hasn’t had a primary vote anything like the mid-40s (or higher) across Australia since before 1996, and all the available evidence suggests that Victoria is swinging consistent with the national movement.

  48. We are very Kevinish here in Ports.
    Re Greens YouTube – lol. Good politics but total tosh of course. The Greens have taken over from the Dems as the party of outraged 18yos who think they have just invented political virtue.

  49. [The Greens have taken over from the Dems as the party of outraged 18yos who think they have just invented political virtue.]

    LOL! 😛

  50. Adam,

    I’d be careful what you say about the Greens. Once the election is over you are going to have to go to them cap in hand and beg them to pass your legislation through the Senate.

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