Tasmanian reader Blackbird informs us that according to the ABC news (which goes to air earlier in Tasmania because daylight saving has already begun there), tomorrow’s ACNielsen poll will show Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44, down from 57-43 last month. More details to follow.
UPDATE: Labor’s primary vote is down two points from last month to 47 per cent, while the Coalition is up one to 40 per cent. There were further attitudinal questions which you can read all about at The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald.
Aren’t the mills in Japan and have decent standards atM?
What are the status of senate preference deals ATM? when are these things usually finalised?
I’m sick of all this talk about a “trend” of 1% per month towards the coalition, it’s fantasy.
Labor vote started in the mid 50% range at the start of Rudd’s reign, before peaking in the 60% range, then came down to the mid 50% range again, before jumping up to the high 50% range after APEC.
It’s now come down to where it has been for the last 4 months(bar the APEC polls) between 55% and 56% TPP.
The only “trend” I see is Labor consistantly polling above 55% TPP for 10 straight months and only ever peaking upwards NEVER downwards.
The election could be 6 months away, and Labor would still be at 55%+. Delaying the election seems like Howard is delaying the ineviatable… the punters have locked in their votes it seems. Maybe the campaign will change their vote, but delaying the election announcement will not.
Labor’s stance on the “African refugee issue” hasn’t changed at all – we support the quota system for refugee intake, and we support the realignment of the quotas this year to take more people from Iraq and Burma and, as a consequence, fewer from elsewhere. Andrews now says he made this change because of the alleged failure of some Africans to integrate. That’s not what he said at the time. We support the change for the original reason Andrews gave, not the current rhetorical spin he is trying to put on it.
So what IF Rudd and the Mrs went hunting for a beach house on the Sunshine Coast ? As one rightly said–
“I think the days of Labor being a party of class envy are a long way behind us and that sort of business acumen are great.”
There may be some Labor people who still want to live in a proletariat vs capitalist adversarial world, where either unions or business are ‘the evil’ enemy, but most now in my experience have learnt from Keating and Hawke that an adversarial relationship between labour and capital is stupid and pointless.
Each needs the other and will not survive without the other. Of course this reality will not, as we have already seen, stop the Coalition from trying to portray Labor [via referrals to old Julia Gillard speak] as anti-business and unions as ‘the wrecking ball’ of the Australian economy.
I wonder for how many more elections the Coalition will be able to continue painting Labor as anti- economy via an anti-capital discourse ? I would have thought that line has just about runs it’s race with the electorate, thank God.
If Rudd has the $ to buy 10 beach houses on the Sunshine Coast, so what ? If nothing else it proves he knows how to handle money, or at least his wife does; I wish my wife could be that clever, sometimes.
Backing the mill will win the ALP quite a few votes in the NSW timber town of Tumut and its surrounds, further enhancing Col. Mike Kelly’s chances in Eden-Monaro.
Ohhh… dangerous waters those Bluebottle! For your sake… I wish your wife never reads that comment! 🙂
Gordon Brown doesn’t need to call an election until 2010. The gloss will come off David Cameron eventually, and the Conservatives supposed miracle tax policy will be shown to be a fraud.
Howard doesn’t have the same luxury: the longer he holds out, the more desperate and afraid he looks.
Recent polling (which you probably won’t read in newspapers) shows Greens have doubled their vote in Bass. And the interesting thing is it seems to be coming from Liberal voters. So preferences may not necessarily flow to Labor. But it doesn’t matter because Labor won’t need them.
Andrews, Ruddock, Downer, Pyne, Bronwyn B, Sophie M, Abbott, Mincihin, what a side. The heart of the conservatives must be busting with pride.
I agree with Bluebottle – clean money honestly earned good luck to them, if only the Labor party had more people like the Rudds, sadly too many think being an MP earning $120K is big bucks in the ALP.
Yes Winston. The Pulp Mill is not electorally significant in terms of the major party contest in Tasmania. Labor will win all 5 Tassie seats comfortably.
Things to look forward to under a LNP govt.
The audits show the growing pains that Medicare has experienced as it introduced the popular new drug benefit and shifted more responsibility to private health plans.
For years, Democrats have complained about efforts to “privatize Medicare,†and they are likely to cite the findings as evidence that private insurers cannot be trusted to care for the sickest, most vulnerable Medicare recipients.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/07/us/07medicare.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
I think the Tassie decision will benefit Labor.
Last election the decision to restrict timber felling hurt Labor badly, because it was seen as an attack on Tassie workers.
This time it’s backfired on the Lib party. They have effectively approved a pulp mill which people in the Launceston area will be outraged against due to the air pollution concerns. How would you like a pulp mill in your backyard??
Meanwhile Labor with it’s “me too” escape criticism, while still not upsetting timber workers. Expect Labor and Green vote in this electorate to increase signficantly at the expense of the Liberal Party.
Who cares if Mr & Mrs Rudd were interested in a new multi-million dollar home? It’s their hard earned money after all.
It’s not like they’re leeching off the taxpayer by living in a mansion on the north side of Sydney with sweeping harbour views when another taxpayer funded mansion – The Lodge (built for the specific purpose of housing the PM) lies vacant, yet fully staffed, in Canberra.
Adam at #93
Someone on this blog site recently did some analysis in the gap between Morgan polls and reality at election time.
IS there a similar gap for AC Neilson polls?
My sense is that AC neilson is a reasonably accurate assessment of the mood of the electorate.
Also, Adam at #103, I agree with what you said on this topic, but it won’t stop some green-leaning voters being disappointed in Labor approach to the ‘frican refugee question.
Darryl asked if the pulp issue will give the greens some oxygen. My view is that other concurrent issues will provide the oxygen
The pulp mill issue, i think, will save Kerry Nettle in nsw and give Wilkie a chance behind Brown in Tas. 3lab-2lib-1grn, and 2lab-2lnp-2grn respectively.
If the issue gains traction among green conservatives, then the senate may swing more than predicted. I predict a labor govt with a green senate.
but for the children’s sake, i wont be ‘calling it’ till the election night.
109 Centre,
As compared to the gleaming stars of Labor’s front bench ?
What are the chances Nicola Roxon gets rolled if they get up? Many promises to be honoured and unpopular with the faction? It would ironic if she were rolled for her former fiancee ? One of the few truly talented people who could have gone places outside of politics in the whole parliament.
Mr Squiggle, AC Nielsen has had the coalition 1 point further ahead on the two party vote than the actual election result in the last polls of the 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections. I think this is a very good track record and i will be keenly awaiting the last Nielsen of this campaign as an indicator of the possible result.
Would 2lab-3lib-1grn be likely in WA? Is that andrew wilke?
TofK, you may well be right on Kerry Nettle in NSW, but there is no way the greens get 2 senate seats in Tasmania. Labor 3, Libs 2, Greens 1.
TofK – Lol
The problem with Andrews is that he knows what he is supposed to do, but he lacks the finesse to do it without getting caught. As with Haneef, so now with refugee policy. He tries to dog-whistle the Hansonites like Howard taught him, but he can’t get the whistle right and everyone can see what he is doing. He was a good academic lawyer but as a politician he is far too flat-footed. If the Libs get another term Andrews will be off to the High Court fairly soon – another good reason to hope they lose.
On Insiders today even Piers Ackerman said that delaying the election beyond the first Saturday in December would look like desperation.
Gerard Henderson then chimed in with the observation that December 1st is the last practical date.
But then I heard 2 things today that got me wondering.
1. The PM said the election will be announced after the major sporting events are finished. Does this include the Melbourne Cup?
2. Mark Vaile’s language changed subtely. When questioned about the election date he responded that it would be some time before Christmas. Note the difference to the often quoted timeframe of early December.
An election announced on the Saturday after the Melbourne Cup could be held on December 15th.
Now I don’t believe this will happen. But you have to wonder, is the PM seriously considering pushing the election timetable back a few more weeks?
It is not impossible. If true who in the hell is advising him?
Adam
Victoria
no. 2 on senate ticket.
Workchoices, no front bench turnover, Andrews and Abbott have been Labors greatest gifts
The 1975 election was on 13 December, and 1977 on the 10 December. The first was obviously determined by the date on which Kerr sacked Whitlam, but the second was entirely voluntary on Fraser’s part. I don’t recall anyone complaining that 10 December was too late in the year.
jen, Ok. If you were Jenny Leong I was going to point out an error on your website, but since you aren’t I won’t.
Neil,
i wouldn’t take much notice of Vaile. He barely knows which foot to put which shoe on.
1977 is thirty years ago for god’s sake.
Back then there was no late night shopping, nobody (hardly) worked on a Sunday, few households had 2 wage packets.
The world was different and the economy was different. Comparing 1977 to 2007 is like comparing apples and oranges.
A December 15th election would see the government slaughtered.
[A December 15th election would see the government slaughtered]
The way the polls have been for the last 9 months, it may be a slaughter no matter what date it’s on
In psephological terms what would be the difference between 56-44 and for example 58-42.
An election 10 days before Christmas would piss a lot of people off, not the least the retail sector. I reckon an election this late would be worth a couple of percent.
If December 10 is not out of the possibilities why wouldn’t he hang on even further?
Surely we are not the only ones that see wait as ridiculous.
How much power does the old coot have- and
why aren’t his cabinet pushing him?… this is a joke now.
I still can’t believe Howard will go for another sitting of parliament. I just think it would start to look desperate. Worst of all the papers will slaughter him for it, waste of money etc etc. I don’t think anyone Labor or Liberal really wants another sitting, however brief. The election will be called by Saturday. What does our liberal rep. ESJ think ?
[He was a good academic lawyer but as a politician he is far too flat-footed. If the Libs get another term Andrews will be off to the High Court fairly soon – another good reason to hope they lose.]
If Rudd wins hopefully George Williams ends up on the High Court! 😛
The pulp mill. The environmental issue we had to have. Well, for the Greens at least. I believe I predicted in April on this site that the Greens needed a “galvanising issue”. After all, they are the party of protest.
To be fair to them, of course, the whole premise was almost entirely unsupported in the Tamar Valley by residents and business owners that live there and, perhaps, the most important ones to listen to.
It is an interesting conundrum, and entirely unlike the Franklin Dam issue in that:
1. Labor and Libs are bipartisan in their qualified support. It will not, in itself, lead to a new government.
2. It is so absolutely hated by the citizens and yet, apparently, supported on the criteria used by the scientists on the panel. I happen to know two and was surprised that they lent support, the conditions must indeed must be stringent.
3. The jobs argument is weak. A diverse and developed tourism industry and cottage produce industry through wines, cheeses, fine foods and art in the long term would lead to a far greater number of jobs, if not the massive profits that the mill will generate.
Bob should do OK in Tassie, it is their strongest state, though I would not be so confident about Labor support. Peter Garrett has made a strategic political move that Joe Punter won’t even care about. Jackie Petrusma also seems far more popular in Hobart than I would have thought.. might give Bob the cold shivers if preferences are strong here!
NEIL
The undertone of Howard’s comments this morning suggest he is in no great hurry to go to the polls, and might even bring everyone back to Cant-berra for another sitting {next week ?}.
The Courier Mail’s cartoon caption, in the employment section, of JWH as a kindergarten toddler with his head in the sand in the sandpit was very appropriate.
It seems, as Antony Green suggested, that he just can’t make up his mind when is the ‘right’ time to call the election or for how long he should/could run the election campaign.
Even if he gets 5 percentage points back during the election campaign, as has been done before, it won’t be enough: I don’t see him pulling his head out of the sand until he absolutely has to. In his position I wouldn’t either. Still, going beyond Dec 1 would really stretch the patience of most voters.
Ed St Jo, I like Roxon. As I have said before, she is a sharp little tough cookie. It is so easy to criticise shadow ministers. C’mon admit she gave it to big ears Abbott on the 7.30 Report. I want to see McClelland debate Downer?
God bless McClelland. If it wasn’t for him Latham would be leader right now. LOL. Bad luck righties.
[A December 15th election would see the government slaughtered.]
Anyone else see the article a week or two ago with some big retailers hoping the election wasn’t held off because it will impact their sales? I lot of ppl won’t like this impost on top of the stress this time of year brings.
[why aren’t his cabinet pushing him?…] this is all about Howard now. he is just trying to get as many days in the record books as he can. A few footnotes might go on that record 😉 how does biggest loss and loss of seat sound?
Matthew,
Is JWH thinking rationally like the rest of us? What advice is he getting, and from whom?
I can understand the delay if he is implementing some sort of political strategy. But I don’t see anything that indicates that this is happening.
He appears to waiting and hoping that something turns up.
134 M.Sykes
I am not a Liberal Party member. But to answer your question yes I think he (Howard) will have another sitting.
He needs something to shake things up and parliament might do the trick – nothing else has all year.
I think the Liberal strategy such as it is, appears to be directed at planting little seeds about Rudd in the hope it adds up to a concern or doubt in people’s minds which could result in a late swing back – hence todays $5M story – its another little seed. Rudd looking angry and worked up like last time could help to add another seed.
Ultimately I think the campaign strategy is to play on enough doubt in the campaign that just enough people come back by playing on themes like Dont Risk Rudd, Are you being conned by Rudd etc etc
135 ShowsOn
If G Williams wasnt good enough for Blaxland why is he good enough for the High Court?
Jen you don’t even get a mention at the Greens campaign website – deplorable!
actually this poll is brilliant for labor, considering the punters have been drowning in government feel good ads and the union ads havnt revved up again yet, wait till they start to bite because they’re using actual cases now and everyone knows the lib ads are done by actors- thanks to the bad publicity of Crosby Textor not screening their players very well.
Adam Carr at #73 is wrong on possible election dates – the possibility of a 10 November election has effectively slipped away this afternoon. The minimum period from issuing writs until an election (which must be held on a Saturday) is 33 days. Writs for a 10 November election would have to be issued tomorrow, but in practice this is no longer possible as there would be insufficient warning for State Governors to issue the Senate writs the same day that the PM made the announcement. The last handful of elections have been ‘called’ on the Sunday and the writs issued on the Monday.
The big question now facing Howard is whether to have the Parliament sit again next week (from 15 Oct). If he wants to avoid a sitting week, he will probably choose to announce the election on Saturday 13th to avoid having MPs travel to Canberra on Sunday with the attendant publicity about millions of wasted dollars if the Parliament is dissolved after they arrive.
One strong theory is that the election will be announced at the end of this week for a longish campaign to 1 or 8 December, thereby avoiding another sitting of Parliament – equally, I think it’s possible that Howard would hope to legitimise the prolonged period to an election by pretending to ‘govern’ with another sitting fortnight. It’s also possible that various buckets will be tipped over the Labor frontbench under cover of Parliamentary privilege. Personally I don’t think that will change the election, but you have to remember we are dealing with a cornered rat.
Calling the election at the end of this week is not so attractive from a media point of view – Sunday announcements are better because Sunday evening is the biggest TV-watching night of the week, and the incumbent PM gets to broadcast a scene-setting statement about the calling of the election.
I’ve been tipping 1 December for around six months, but I reckon 8 December is looking increasingly attractive based on the theory that every extra day brings the hope of a miracle. Oh, BTW, the PM’s Office is still checking the transcripts to see whether the PM mentioned which year when he said the election would be held by early December.
ESJ you should join the Liberal party, I’m sure they could do with some enthusiastic support. I Still think that Howard has completely lost it if he thinks another sitting of parliament is going to be helpful for him.
First question if parliament sits on monday.
Rudd: “Prime Minister, given the date of the last election was october 9 2004 and today is october 15 2007, why has the prime minister not followed proper process and failed to call an election within three years of the last one?”
All the press will absolutely hammer Howard for wasting time and taxpayer money on another sitting when all key legislative business was wraped up in the last one.
The primaries are 47/40 – from a reliable source
Also Rudd is preferred over Howard on trust and vision
Rudd is PPM by a massive 52-39
The reference in my last post to Rudd being angry and worked up was about the last week of parliament
138 Centre
I agree Roxon is good value. Will that save her from Conroy? I doubt it.
McClelland – yawn – a very cautious, risk adverse, what’s in it for me type. Unlikely to see the second term in cabinet – probably follow the father to London on a posting.
I guess a great what if had Beazley been there in 2004 about who would be leading today. It will be very interesting if Rudd does get in whether he will actually try to be a moderniser? Carr squibbed in NSW, would Rudd be different? I suspect he might.
Keep your pants on. Howard’s second term went for about 37 months (an October 1998 election – followed by a November 2001 election). It will be the same this time (October 2004 – November 2007). As long as the election is by 1 December, the wider electorate will not care. The timing of it is a ‘beltway’/’insider’ issue. The election will be called by next Sunday at the latest, for November 24. And once it is called, all the criticism about it being “delayed” and Howard being “frightened” will amount to nought and have no electoral impact.
What is he honestly hoping for?
They have tried the sex scandal (kevvie saw a stripper),
they have tried the race issue (save the aboriginal children from their no-good families, keep out violent africanswho go and get themselves murdered in our streets),.
They have tried terrorism – Haneef and Hicks.
They have tried welfare cheats – send those single mothers back to work while those worthy married ones can stay at home like good mothers should.
They have sent us to war to defeat those terrorists and liberate all those collaterally killed Iraqis .
Plus the people have been awarded tax cuts – from the overtaxing of the previous years.
Also they have made sure those bolshie workers can’t go out on strike.
I’m not sure what else he can dream up, although one should never underestimate a cornered and desperate Johnnie.