ACNielsen: 56-44

Tasmanian reader Blackbird informs us that according to the ABC news (which goes to air earlier in Tasmania because daylight saving has already begun there), tomorrow’s ACNielsen poll will show Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44, down from 57-43 last month. More details to follow.

UPDATE: Labor’s primary vote is down two points from last month to 47 per cent, while the Coalition is up one to 40 per cent. There were further attitudinal questions which you can read all about at The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

615 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

Comments Page 1 of 13
1 2 13
  1. Taking in count the bias which is 4% and the undervalued Nat vote which adds on a further 3% the Coalition is on track for a victory come December 51-49!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    General Wenck has broken through!!!!!!!

    (tribute to Nostro)

  2. Glen says

    “General Wenck has broken through!!!!!!!”

    This is a reference to Hitlers last days in the bunker when he ordered a phantom army to releive Hitler in Berlin. Says it all really.

  3. AC Neilsen the same as last week’s Galaxy. Hmm.

    There’s a little bit of hope there for Howard I think. He’s chipping away, point by point. Enough for him to call the election next weekend perhaps?

    *fingers crossed*

  4. AC Nielsen, Galaxy and Newspoll all show 56-44 TPP from most recent polls. So the question is, whats up with morgan? They do tend to favour labor slightly in comarison with newspoll, but not by this much.

  5. Yep, seems things have plateaued at 56-44. It’s fairly consistent between pollsters.

    Something in the water over at Morgan?

  6. ACN, Newspoll and Galaxy have thrice in a row produced exactly the same 2PP. The clear outlier at the moment is Morgan. Maybe the pulp mill has had some impact on Labor’s vote.

  7. A 2PP 12-point lead by Labor just two months out from an election is pretty amazing. I wonder what the Primary support and Preferred PM figures are like in the AC Nielsen poll?

    At the rate the trend to the Coalition is going in the AC Nielsen poll (1% gain per month) they should “only” be 8% behind Labor (46-54) come election day. ๐Ÿ™‚

  8. i think Morgan’s “soft labor” voters are playing tricks with his poll.

    unless there is another possibility.

    Morgan is the only poll that isn’t run by a newspaper. Newspapers benefit by keeping the electorate as close as possible.

    *slips tinfoil hat off.

  9. Labor will win Bass easily. The pulp mill will have hardly any impact in the seat. Ferguson, the sitting liberal member, realises he is toast and is trying to pretend the reason is the pulp mill. Labor will also romp home in Lyons.

  10. Morgan may be higher as in todays climate people are reluctant to give their true opinions over the phone to some anonymous caller.

    Though even with the current trend of polls I would not be surprised if coailtion MP’s took to wearing adult diapers before each poll came out.

  11. Love it Misty. In total denial. Ever heard of margin of error? The main polls are showing, and have shown for months now, the same thing. These no narrowing of the polls here. LOL

  12. A 52-48 outlier would have been fun. Would we have had the PM speeding off to the Governor’s?

    Mark Vaile was expounding his “The Narrowing” theory on the ABC news – apparently the poll results are all the football finals fault. Yes Mark, it’s been footy finals for all of 2007…

  13. In Glen’s defence I think he has accepted that Howard is going to get creamed but he’s just tying to die with honour. Going down with all guns blazing.

  14. No Paul i have not accepted that but its now accept it as a possibility that i had not previously entertained…just in case we do lose it will lessen the blow…id rather die with honour than win by compromising my principals something not many Labor supporters can attest to…but it gives me the red ass that i am left here having to defend the party when Nostro and Steven aren’t here to help out…

  15. ‘Down the wires the electric message came,
    There is no difference,
    The polls are much the same…’

    Please John, if you’re reading this, call the election please so I can get a bit more work done than I’m managing lately. Truly ruly it’ll make all the difference – the punters will come to their senses, all will be well. Cross my heart. Just do it. Trust me, I’m a lurker.

  16. Glen, don’t worry about compromising your principals, they can look after themselves, at any rate, you’ll be out of school within six weeks. Your principles… on the other hand… will always be a problem for you!

  17. Good work Blackbird. I was told it would be the other way.

    The fact is though that the closer to the election with numbers like this, it’s practically as good as a swing to Labor.

  18. KT – good to hear Vaile talk like this. Another inanity.
    I’ll have to add him to my list…
    It’s in keeping with just about everything uttered by Howard (continuing to govern for all of us (?) – but not letting that get in the way of the footy), Abbott (making outrageous statements about Gillard), Downer (caught cheating), Costello (slandering report authors – not the report) etc etc
    Please keep them coming…

  19. Gary – As an ALP supporter I wouldn’t say I’m in denial. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Paranoid that Howard is potentially making trivial inroads into Labor’s massive lead? Yes, of that I am guilty.

    I think there is a very, very slight trend toward the Coalition at the moment. But yes it could all be margin of error stuff.

  20. Glen, old son, sorry to tell you that it was reported today that Dolly and his beloved were overheard in an adelaide fine dining establishment, to the effect that Mrs. Dolly said words to the effect that there was no way they could win. It’s all right, really, try and do something about the appalling ESJs in your party. Oh and the Clarks and Hawkes. They’re about as appealing as Pauline Hanson.

  21. The Coalition have not made inroads into anything apart from the public purse. The polling, allowing for all the statictical blips and hiccups, is showing basically what it has been showing for the last six months. A labor landslide.

  22. Are the NEW Govt. ads on drought assistance being shown in other places?

    Getting lots of airplay on the Sunshine Coast, shame we were having floods 6 weeks ago.

  23. Fagin. Ta. Re narrowing.

    What is the magic that will happen to the polls when Howard calls the election? Boils will heal, irritating rashes will be calmed, warts will be thwarted, there will be smiling faces in the supermarkets, babies will not cry …

  24. Trust the Henderson Moving Average, Misty. The ship sails on.

    And Coorey even mentions the 1 percent shift from the last Nielsen is ‘not statistically significant’. Long time since I’ve seen that admitted by one of the commissioning papers.

  25. The government still hasn’t started spending that 17.3 Billion surplus yet. There’s bound to be some sort of one off payment to pensioners because they’ve managed to keep breathing since the last election. I would imagine there will be family bonuses because families are so important etc etc etc.
    Don’t underestimate the power of the dollar. If tax payer funded advertising won’t turn the polls around then taxpayer funded bribes to interest groups have always worked before. And there’s more money than ever before.

  26. It looks like all the polls, except morgan, have shown 56-44 for the last three weeks, and much the same since december. Its starting to scare me the amount howard is spending of public money. His logic seems to be shoot randomly, hope to hit something.
    The fact he wont have called the election by tuesday, which appears certain, will look very bad for him. Preventing the true democratic process is very Burkean however.

  27. ruawake, there are no ads on drought relief in Melbourne. We are getting the IR ads at an insane level.

    The government has really compounded their errors with workchoices by running these ads.

    Remember when Howard was asked in parliament about a woman who would lose $30 a week under a new AWA.

    Get a new job, was Howard’s response. But then Rudd got up and the polls went down. And now we have the fairness test and an extreme new layer of beauracracy.

    New government ads show inspectors visiting work-places to make sure that workers are being paid correctly! Ah, the smell of desperation, is there anything else like it.

  28. Excellent! No deviation from the long term. Despite my concern over what to wear on election night; I will wait. Love it that JWH is digging himself in deeper. For those who did not hear, the National Interest ABC Radio today, was compelling.

  29. nath
    also existing ads are being reworked-with new voice overs and scenarios

    interesting point
    the one with the lady at the desk originally showed a clean desk-someone here commented on that bit
    the new version is basically the same but there are now files etc on her desk also she is not as coiffured as before

    point re polls everyone but morgan ONLY polls in Liberal electorates ๐Ÿ™‚

    apologies re insiders () though i was right about the porcine one

  30. No drought ads in Wagga. Strange considering the Riverina has been in the grip of drought for 5 years. Then again, with a margin of 20%+, Riverina is hardly a marginal seat…

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 13
1 2 13