Tasmanian reader Blackbird informs us that according to the ABC news (which goes to air earlier in Tasmania because daylight saving has already begun there), tomorrow’s ACNielsen poll will show Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44, down from 57-43 last month. More details to follow.
UPDATE: Labor’s primary vote is down two points from last month to 47 per cent, while the Coalition is up one to 40 per cent. There were further attitudinal questions which you can read all about at The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald.
Jen, didnt you know that sports usurp the democratic process? Well at least in the last 3 years it seems.
Drought ads are here in Canberra. I don’t think they would apply here.
how effective do the drought ads appear to be? for those enjoying your own self funded entertainment, and aren’t watching the abc.
Lord D
To use etc means the author has run out of ideas. It’s the mark of a lazy writer. With due respect.
TofK
Melbourne cup is in early November, so that is potentially another necessary delay. Could our beloved PM really stretch it out further than next week?
Adam:
I imagine it is hard to discuss such matters with a self-proclaimed Greens candidate, but we are all in this bit together: we all want to see the end of the Howard regime, so what is your latest take on the election date?
Gary Bruce 20,
You seem very chipper since my return to this blog and of course as a Labor supporter you are entitled to by reference to the polls.
My question if I may is, have you called the election as over like Adam did on Friday? Second optional question do you fear it turning out a 1969 rather than 1972 or in an English context 1992 rather than 1997? I think it is interesting that apart from the APEC panic the Libs have largely held together and that apart from a reasonable number of 1996 backbenchers no Ministers have tapped the mat.
I guess if we have to settle for 56% tpp on election day it wouldn’t be all bad.
I would be playing the 3 years since the election card loud and clear all week from Tuesday – keep up with the message that the election is due or at least due to be called.
Yes, of course he can “there’s still governing to do”. The cricket will start soon, so as not to interfere, 19th of January would be suitably placed.
Is there a product to remove araldite from the seats of pants? They will find a willing market.
Howard can’t possibly allow another sitting of parliament. Their is no major bussiness left for the goverment and the media will massively ramp up the “desperation” tag, lampooning Howard for stalling the democratic process. Also, Liberal members will be drawn away from their electorates, while Labor candidates will be able to campaign in the governments marginals unopposed for a week. The election will be called by Saturday.
Honestly. I don’t care when the election is called ’cause it’s a forgone conclusion. I do hope though that the new Labor government go after even Liberal government excess and abuse in the past 11 years, naming names, the whole lot! It wiil be as important as the de-nazification of post-war Germany.
Edward, your last post was a contradictory minefield.
Nostradoofus talks about the government with a $17.3 billion surplus to spend. Unfortunately, that’s the 2006-07 surplus, and the government has spent it (the higher education fund, superannuation handouts, more into the Future Fund). We don’t actually know yet what’s in the 2007-08 budget which is the one that will fund everything.
And the way that spending has been ramped up by the PM in the past month or so (around $3 billion on the forward estimates), there may only be a brass nickel and a couple of clothes pegs left.
Yes, Blackbird, the point of critical mass has been reached. This weekend, even earlier.
What were the main happenings/news items that may have influenced this poll? I have been travelling for the last week and a bit out of touch, would the Gillard vs Abbott stuff be in this poll?
if Howard the Drunken Sailor starts throwing that 17Billion around, Mr Glen Stevens might dampen his parade.
The drought ads are quite blatant spin. Can’t remember them putting ads on for other changes in govt centrelink assistance?
How about the sending single mothers to work campaign?
Or the your not sick enough to be disabled campaign?
Barbara, the simple answer on Gillard vs Abbott influencing the poll is NO. Silly political events like that have no influence on polls. I mean, people don’t change voting intentions on such stuff. This poll is simply a reflection on the same issues that all the polls have been picking up on all year.
OK thanks Blackbird
Poll taken thurs and friday which was before Abbott V Gillard wasn’t it?
cheers darryl. theyre ad co should get a posthumous medal for ineptitude.
Dont think the get a job you wheelchair bound dolebludger/ single mum junkie will gel too well. A bit louder than the tactical dog whistle.
Darryl, ACN is conducted Thursday night through Saturday night.
jen, there are really only four possible elections dates left (Nov 10, 17 and 24 and Dec 1), beyond that your guess is as good as mine.
I didn’t realise you are a Greens candidate. I have two Jennys on my list, one in Sydney and one in Herbert. My guess is Sydney.
A good tactic for labor to apply a bit of pressure on Howard to call the election, would be to claim that he wants a Dec 1 poll to make it exactly 11.75 years as PM from Mar 2/96. For Howard it’s all about his own historical record, not the best interests of the nation. Which I bet is what he really wants. If it’s targeted properly, we could at least force a November election.
More attempted Rudd Smearing.
[Reports that Labor Leader Kevin Rudd made an offer to buy a Queensland beach house worth $5 million do not make him look bad, Opposition Immigration spokesman Tony Burke says.
Mr Rudd made the informal offer on the house at Sunrise Beach, on the Sunshine Coast, earlier this year, the ABC reported on Sunday.
Mr Rudd’s office has reportedly denied that an offer was made.]
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labor-defends-Rudd-over-beach-house/2007/10/07/1191695718987.html
For all us Labor supporters out there
Another inerest rate rise would go down a treat!!!
Electorally steveo. Pretty sure the camel just needs one more straw for many financially. My quest for competent governance says yes, but is countered by my social conscious.
Frank, you and Michael Kroger(Lateline) were suggesting Dec 8 as a possibility about a month ago, are you still thinking that way?
Rove getting stuck into Andrews…….great to see.
[Frank, you and Michael Kroger(Lateline) were suggesting Dec 8 as a possibility about a month ago, are you still thinking that way?]
Yep, there is still Chogm, and Howard will just want to be there so he can have a final fling with his Commonwealth buddies.
Edward says: “My question if I may is, have you called the election as over like Adam did on Friday?”
My question, Edward, is: why do you repeatedly tell deliberate lies here? You know quite well that’s not what I said, because you were picked up on it by several people the first time you made that statement. You wouldn’t dare do this to my face, but here you hide behind anonymity to deliberately misrepresent me (and no doubt others). On one level I couldn’t care less, because you are a person of no consequence and everyone here knows it. On another level I do care, because even in blogs I think people should try to maintain a certain standard of behaviour, and every time you come here you drag down the discussion to your level of dishonesty and stupidity. This is the behavior of a contemptible and cowardly grub.
Looks like Howard is not the only Prime Minister having problems with election dates. Gordon Brown in Britain is also looking a little worse for wear after chickening out on calling an early election.
[ Mr Brown’s announcement to the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme that there would not be an early election came as a poll published by Sunday’s News of the World suggests the Tories are ahead by 6% in marginal seats, with the party overall at 44% against Labour’s 38%.
Translated into a general election, it would mean a hung Parliament with Labour holding 306 seats and the Tories 246.
Speculation had been mounting that the prime minister would call a November election after changes to parliamentary announcements, and after the Labour Party recruited staff to man an election campaign.]
With the exception of the August result (55-45), this is the lowest labor 2PP reported by Neilson since Rudd got the leadership.
Can’t wait to see the stats on the primary voting intention
All,
Do you think the pulp mill will give the greens enough of a platform and oxygen to eat into the ALP primary?
[Do you think the pulp mill will give the greens enough of a platform and oxygen to eat into the ALP primary?]
Maybe in Tasmania, but it doesn’t matter if it does, those votes will just go back to the ALP on preferences.
Adam: Do you support nuclear power for Australia? Do you think there are many in the Labor right who support it?
As far as I can tell no one in Victoria cares much about the Mill. Doesn’t seem to be an issue here.
Might impact on the senate? Brown would be pretty safe regardless but Kerry Nettle’s chances likely to increase a little.
Adam,
I think if memory serves correctly you were the one who said on Friday that a swing back to the Liberals was as likely as a meteor in Lake Burley Griffin so I take that as “calling it”.
It will be worth a % or two to the Greens, but as I have said before Labor will gain more than they lose from this issue.
63 Coota Bulldog
Now I’m even more worried. This will mean the government will be spending money when it doesn’t know how much it has. That means no limits. And howard has nothing to lose by promisin the world.
Harry H
It doesn’t matter if the governor rains on Howards parade. All Howard will be concentrating on is getting back into power. The consequences of his campaign promises can be dealt with if he gets back in.
Edward,
Try to grow up you self righteous twit.
Paul,
I thought the same, but there has been quite a lot of media coverage here. The mill itself is one issue but it does highlight forests again
Mr Squiggle, that’s true, but it’s also true that every ACN since April has had the ALP 2PV in a band between 55 and 58%, so I wouldn’t get too excited. The professionals in all parties know that the polls are basically not moving at all.
paul k, re PM Gordon Brown:
I reckon Brown made an enormous blunder with that one. He unnecessarily backed himself into a corner. He could have either surprised everyone with calling a campaign out of the blue, or held back for another year or two without all the public maneuverings.
He came across as weak and indecisive, this will cost Labor big time.
Darryl at #84
I’d say ‘yes’, the pulp mill will give the Greens some oxygen.
I’d also expect Labor’s stance on the African refugee issue to shift some primary away from labor and back to the Greens
ShowsOn: No I don’t. Maybe, but not many.
Adam at 11.05am on October 5th, note the last sentence:
It’s pretty easy to find 16 seats where Labor is currently ahead. My list would be Parramatta, Lindsay, Dobell, Eden-Monaro and Page in NSW, La Trobe in Vic, Bonner, Moreton, Herbert and Blair in Qld, Hasluck in WA, Kingston, Wakefield and Makin in SA, Bass and Braddon in Tas and Solomon in NT. That’s 17. I could probably add Bennelong, Deakin, Bowman and Stirling, but I’m being conservative. Yes, they could all swing back, and yes a giant asteroid could plunge into Lake Burley Griffin. I don’t think either will happen.
If that’s not a call I dont know what is.
The problem I see with stopping the Mill is that if all that happens is that it moves to Indonesia and is built with even less environmental safeguards how much good has all the protesting done?
doofus,
does it not matter if Stevens hits Howard with an interest rate rise on Nov 6?
he has clearly warned him that if he spends recklessy in promises he is asking for trouble
Adam, I noticed you called the electorate of Deakin.
I wouldn’t be so sure about that one if I were you. I have some insider’s knowledge of the situation there. Furthermore, Baressi is a popular, grass-roots member while his opponent is not.
Most voters seem very concerned with infrastructure and I think that Costello’s Springvale Road announcement will work a treat. I’m going on the record and predicting a Liberal hold for that seat.
A-C