Westpoll: 53-47 in WA

The West Australian today carries its monthly Westpoll survey of around 400 voters, which shows Labor’s two-party lead in WA increasing to 53-47 from 51.6-48.4 last month. Compared with the 2004 election results, this points to a swing to Labor of 8.4 per cent – which would shift Stirling, Hasluck and Kalgoorlie and endanger Canning (which most reckon more likely to fall than Kalgoorlie, despite the margins). However, Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-41 to 45-43. No primary vote figures are provided.

Hat tip to Barry.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

527 comments on “Westpoll: 53-47 in WA”

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  1. John Rocket (487).

    The rule as I understand it is that you must belong to a union if you are eligible, so the businessman you refer to does not have to be a unionist. I think the rule refers only to affiliated unions, thus being a teacher and an ALP member would not require you to belong to the AEU, which is not affiliated to the ALP.

  2. Adam the pulp mill talk at our stall was from ALP supporters not green ones. This stall was in a very red neck area. So your views that its a Green scare campaign is wrong. The scare campaign is coming from your own glorious party lol.

  3. Glen people are people where ever they hail from, we have to provide them with the skills to integrate. To expect them to bootstrap themselves into a manifestly different society from their own is plain silly. To then heap opprobrium on them when they fail to adjust is plain stupid.

  4. Harry, I am not “hiding behind the skirt of the chief scientist.” When discussing a field in which is not an expert oneself, one looks for the best relevant expert opinion. In this case it’s the Chief Scientist’s report. I’m aware that the Chief Scientist only reported on matters relevant to Commonwealth law, mainly the marine ecosystems affected by the mill’s effluent. But the other major area of contention, the source of the timber supply to the mill, is covered by the Tasmanian Regional Forest Agreement, which was also exhautively researched and negotiated and which has bipartisan support.

  5. “Many thanks for the grammar advice”

    I wouldn’t normally be so pedantic, but a pompous arse deserves it.
    The correct form is “grammatical advice”, as grammar is a noun.

    More importantly, does anyone have any predictions regarding tomorrow’s Neilsen poll?

  6. [I pity the fool who does not understand that there are some peoples dont integrate into our country well…]

    There are also some people in Australia who need to learn English.

    [if we had to we should only bring in Asian refugees instead of Middle Eastern or African refugees…]

    Um, why?

  7. Glen 497

    Well said, A few years ago on an investment trip to Vietnam I visited some Montagnard villages.

    The Montagnards who worked closely with the CIA and the US were denied electricity and running water despite the World Bank and IMF funding an extensive program of delivering these services to Vietnamese villages.

    As always in history to the victor the spoils, but in South Vietnam’s case there was a debt that remains unpaid to those people many because they lived outside of Saigon were denied the opportunity to flee the Comms.

  8. Interesting to note the Rugby Australia was overwhelming favourites and yet we got beaten…just goes to show being favourites doesn’t always pay off…so to those who think the election is already over you aint seen nothing yet!

  9. John Rocket re union membership

    Don’t forget the scribblers and jugglers’ union, the MEAA. It covers journos, thespians and buskers … probably clowns. True dinks.

  10. [If you dont know the answer to that question than I dont think we can help you.]

    If you can’t explain it, then obviously you are making up your opinions as you go along without any basis in fact, logic, or reason.

  11. LATE MAIL:

    I have it on good authority that the AC Nielsen poll will show a swing to………………………………………………………………………………Labor.

    Apparently Howard and nine, yep nine ministers are in danger of losing their seats, according to Nielsen.

  12. Oh Adrian

    Want to be like the other kids hey?

    According to the New Shorter Oxford English Dictionary my usage was entirely correct.

    Have another lash old son.

  13. No doubt tomorrow’s poll, like every other poll this year, will show the Liberals getting a comprehensive thrashing. Nothing will change until His Nibs calls the election. Does anyone think he will do so tomorrow, whoch is the deadline for 10 November?

  14. bill

    Do you reckon this will get you above the 5,000 mark in Kingston? Yvonne couldn’t, maybe you can beat I.N. Formal. The Pulp Mill is a nothing issue, its a done deal.

    People may be talking about it today, but it will be forgotten by the end of the week.

  15. I think he will annouce on the weekend of 13/14 but wont have the writs issued and officially visit the GG until after parliament sits for one more week.

    I think the Liberals will decide what do they have to lose by sitting for one more week particularly if they can raise the temperature by announcing but not calling the election before 15 October.

  16. [I think he will annouce on the weekend of 13/14 but wont have the writs issued and officially visit the GG until after parliament sits for one more week.]

    What will parliament do during the extra week? There is nothing left to legislate. This would just make it easy for Labor to attack them for wasting money, i.e. recalling parliament without it doing anything.

  17. Edward, for once I agree with you. When you’re behind you have to take a punt, and another week of sittings provides another opportunity to smear Rudd and Gillard under privilege, although this tactic has been a total failure so far.

  18. Brian 504#

    “People are people where ever they hail from, we have to provide them with the skills to integrate.”

    I agree with you there Brian…but some people integrate far easily than others…i find it offensive that to say who you want to come to your country is racist what a load of bollocks…why was the European immigration of the 1930-40-50-60s was so successful? Because they had things in common with Australia and were better able to integrate into society than immigrates are today plus back then they didnt have integration services that are available now and they managed very well…

    So Brian you want to bring people into our country from completely different societies and not make them understand and respect our country and its traditions? I dont think it is tough to expect someone to embrace our way of life if they want to live here…

    We obviously have a problem with some African refugees/immigration and their ability to integrate into society is a problem because they come from such a different society to ours…

    Personally i would rather we didnt have to bring many people from overseas to increase or sustain our population but we’re too affluent and so many dont have children or many children…but thems the breaks.

  19. Glen, one of the best things the Howard government has doen is to base our immigration program upon skills. The Sudanese arrive here under the refugee program. Different things. That’s why they are here, because they have suffered terribly and are being given a chance to escape. If we base our refugee program on the ability of groups to integrate successfully, as opposed to say New Zealanders, then we may as well not have a refugee program.This is all terrible stuff, and so predictable.

  20. The recipe so far…
    6 dashes of immigration,
    4 drops of environment,
    5 cups of white Australia,
    2 pinches of ESJ &
    & 1 pint of Adam … stir thoroughly & rotate every 40 minutes.

    Slowly cook for 3 hours & serve with hubris & lemon.

    Can be snap frozen until election day !

  21. AC Nielsen: 56-44
    According to ABC News Tasmania
    We’re on Daylight already.

    It was 57-43 last time. See, the narrowing has begun!

    (anybody whose facetiousness radar is not turned on, please turn it on now)

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