Westpoll: 53-47 in WA

The West Australian today carries its monthly Westpoll survey of around 400 voters, which shows Labor’s two-party lead in WA increasing to 53-47 from 51.6-48.4 last month. Compared with the 2004 election results, this points to a swing to Labor of 8.4 per cent – which would shift Stirling, Hasluck and Kalgoorlie and endanger Canning (which most reckon more likely to fall than Kalgoorlie, despite the margins). However, Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-41 to 45-43. No primary vote figures are provided.

Hat tip to Barry.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

527 comments on “Westpoll: 53-47 in WA”

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  1. Molotov, re: “I know perfectly well the ALP are not Neo-Con, quit being so defensive!” If you say stupid things you don’t mean, of course you will get attacked. Try saying what you do mean. We have enough real idiots here without you pretending to be one.

  2. Glen, I know you cop the odd thrashing on here, but kudos to you and your devils advocacy routine. I like it, seriously. I have a suspicion that you have the pretty Australian trait of being a better loser than winner, though…I’m not sure I’d be so into it if the polls were reversed (disclaimer: I’m a bad loser).

  3. Tony Burke never ran the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association: he was merely an organiser.

    If anybody has doubts about the sincerity and commitment of Tony Burke to the cause of multiculturalism, I suggest that they read his maiden speech to Federal Parliament:


    I suspect that Tony Burke would deal with Hanson/One Nation types and their twisted views the way they should be: with a swift and firm hand.

  4. 450
    Glen Says:
    October 7th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
    after all the only thing that divided us in the 1950s and 1960s was whether you were Catholic or a Prody…lol!

    Really? Thanks to your enlightenment, I should conclude that my w*ggish and k*kish forebears simply hallucinating whenever they were reminded by the rest of society that they were not Australian.

  5. 450
    Glen Says:
    October 7th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
    Clearly our multicultural society cannot be as socially cohesive as other countries who do not allow immigration like for instance Japan however we have enough to hold us together thankfully still i dont think it was as strong as it was before…after all the only thing that divided us in the 1950s and 1960s was whether you were Catholic or a Prody…lol!

    How would you know? Have you any data? Any life experience to relate? I think you mistake social cohesion for ethnic homogeneity, itself a myth as far as Australia is concerned. I think you are frightened of the different, which makes you a xenophobe. You are just one in a very long line of immigrant/settler stock who is afraid of the outside world. you should get out a bit: travel, broaden your mind…

  6. Adam,
    did you really say that the pulp mill would be “good for the environment”?
    Leading chemical and environmental scientists have stated that any chlorine -based pulp mill is outdated technology due to the the production of dioxins which are unacceptably dangerous . Also, there is a major unanswered question about the use of natural growth timber required as there is not enough plantation timber available. The aiprpollution, smell and increase in logging will all impact on the other local industries and businesses, losing jobs at the expense of those created by the mill. So apart from Gunns and their political mate who is it good for?

  7. Yes well Pancho when you find your side of politics looking down the barrel with so many terrible polls you’ve got to keep fighting no point giving up…its all fair and good to spit the dummy if the election is lost but before nahh besides you have to take the good with the bad…losing since 1996 will make a victory in 2007 sweeter than it would have been in say 1998 or 2001 im sure the ALP supporters would of loved victories there but having been beaten several times once your salvation has arrived after so long it makes it much sweeter just as 1996 was for us after 13 years of Labor…

    I think we are going into the last quarter of an ALF match with Labor up by 18 points its a massive deficit but anything can happen Labor can plough ahead or the Liberals can steal a victory…if the Liberals have not moved from the low 40s 2PP before the election is called i will be a pragmatist and say we’re going to find it hard to win if we are only 10 points or less down we’ve got a chance…still id far rather be in Labor’s position at this stage that is a given

  8. Sorry, I must have missed the basics back in Smear 101: What exactly is wrong with being a union organiser?

    Seems most Australians dont really care, or find it a problem, so you might want to give us a refresher, Team Rodent.

  9. Please Glen, read Australian modern history, take a course in economics and a deep hard look at yourself while you are at it. Firstly. Before the ww2 immigration there was no cohesion it was class against class, Anglican against Catholic, private school against public (and both against Catholic), free settler ancestry against convict ancestry, English immigrants against Australians, white against black and everyone against the Irish.

    Secondly without the immigrants our economy would be a s**t hole, all the big mining companies relied entirely on migrant labour, the big projects as well, manufacturing and even our financial sectors relied on skilled and unskilled migrants to establish and grow our successful companies. It’s no different today.

    The concept of cohesion is also always false, even in Japan it differs from island to island, and despite the rhetoric from the traditional to the modern, religion, schooling, social class, trade and ancestry changes from community to community, family to family. To establish a veneer of cohesion these countries put on some trite government policy position (even a historical one is still a policy tradition) such as the American oath or the emperor as a deity (which ceased to be Japanese policy after WW2).

    You probably owe your job to migration, and your children will certainly owe theirs to it. you certainly owe Australia’s favored positon in the world to it.

  10. Glen,

    We are a nation of immigrants. Even the Aborigines came in successive waves from Asia a long time ago. To compare a country as large and as under-populated as Australia with a nation like Japan which by comparison is small and crowded is comparing apples with oranges. Multicultural societies can and do work if immigrants feel like they will be accepted. It is only in those societies where immigrants are made to feel unwelcome where it fails.

    My family came to Australia thanks to a policy of the Menzies government. Pity that modern day Liberals have turned their back on Menzies.

  11. Andrews has played perception politics.

    It makes people think:

    The Govt. is reducing refugee numbers – which it is not.
    The Govt. is reducing humanitarian immigration – which it is not.
    The Govt. is reducing immigration – which it is not.

    Don’t think it will have any benefit for the Govt. they are preaching to the converted.

  12. 18 points Glen, which polls are you looking at? This day and age 18 points lead in a game of football is nothing. That’s where the polls are showing both major parties with one point separating them, two at most, unless you mean thugby of course.

  13. Paul K you are not quite getting what ive been saying that we should be choosing immigrants on their ability to integrate into society…the Menzies immigration policy was fantastic because we took Europeans into Australia with whom we had much in common sure they were different but they were better able to integrate in our society than Africans and people from the Middle East…that’s all im saying Paul k…

    Actually Paul K you are mistaken…
    “My family came to Australia thanks to a policy of the Menzies government. Pity that modern day Liberals have turned their back on Menzies.”

    The Howard government supports immigration Paul in fact it is probably more liberal than it was back in the Menzies era as now we happily immigrate Asians into Australia who were under Menzies verboten…

    I would of thought you would of been against Menzies White Australia Policy but i guess you think the Liberals of today should do this lol!

  14. jen, you can always find an “expert” to support whatever position you want to take, as the climate change denialists have shown. In this case the most extensive evaluation of the mill was undertaken by the office of the Chief Scientist, who is independent and respected by all parties. His report supported the mill, subject to very stringent environmental conditions, which both Turnbull and Labor have supported. I think that is the correct process and it has produced a sound decision.

    Turnbull’s statement:
    Labor’s response:

    The problem the Greens have is that they cry wolf too often. If you oppose everything, people will stop listening to you. If we followed the logic of the Greens and oppose all development, we’d be living in caves. Australia is an industrial economy and has to have industrial development. The question is how to do that in a way that doesn’t further degrade the environment or contribute to climate change. I think in this, after some prodding, Turnbull followed a sound process and got a good outcome.

  15. Scanning the posts from about 430 onward it is clear that the ALP and the acolytes on this site have learnt nothing in 12 years about immigration and its impact in Australia as an issue.

    Lord spare us when the inner-city types are dictating on immigration policy again. “deal with one nation types with a swift and firm hand” – Your talking out of your bottom again.

  16. Adam says:
    If we followed the logic of the Greens and oppose all development, we’d be living in caves.

    Now who’s showing complete ignorence? You wouldn’t want to ever say things you don’t honestly believe would you? Care to make like a Molotov and backpedal?

  17. Am I right the Liberals still haven’t chosen a candidate for Banks?
    Howard earlier this week was campaigning in the seat of Forde, with a 12% margin – a good indication that the Coalition is in serious trouble in QLD.

  18. [ learnt nothing in 12 years about immigration and its impact in Australia ]


    most of us lived and experienced the last 12 years as adults and would know a little more about the period than you. How old were you 12 years ago – were you even in school? Kindly don’t preach about things you know nothing about.

    By the way I’m still waiting for that proof that the human race is in danger of extinction unless we increase the population.

  19. Molotov the Greens would destroy our economy in order to save the environment so Adam’s comment about caves is entirely relevant in fact the Greens are not happy at how prosperous Australia has become because of us ‘hurting the environment’…

  20. Molotov, can you name me a recent major industrial development that the Greens have supported (documentation please). If so I will retract that comment.

    Yes as of yesterday there were still no Liberal candidates in Banks and Scullin (and now Lyons as well).

  21. ESJ says: “Lord spare us when the inner-city types are dictating on immigration policy again.”

    Yes I can imagine my friends sitting around bohemian cafes in Fitzroy calling up the ALP minister for immigration and demanding more migrants from the horn of Africa. just to piss you off.

  22. [Please Paul K,

    More fact, less abuse would be appreciated.]

    People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. You continually treat everyone on this site with contempt.

  23. Adam i expect we our trying to get some Young Liberals to run in these seats poor bastards but we dont have a hope in these seats (really only in it for the Senate vote)!

  24. Indeed, Glen, and the problem is that these days most Young Liberal activists seem to have videoed their drunken loutish behaviour and put it in YouTube, or put their revolting extremist views on their blogs under their own names, so that acceptable token candidates are getting harder to find. Thank goodness for those Lebos, eh? Where would the NSW Libs be without them?

  25. True…though this problem is not just a Liberal one let us not forget the ALP’s young candidate for O’Connor lol! No body is completely squeaky clean i guess…even if they are a bible basher people have secrets and they make mistakes…i guess they are human but it makes it hard with pre-selections…

  26. Lord spare us when the inner-city types are dictating on immigration policy again. “deal with one nation types with a swift and firm hand” – Your talking out of your bottom again.

    ESJ — although “your” and “you’re” sound the same, they are spelt differently…

  27. 475 Paul K

    No love the sinner, hate the sin.

    If the argument is poor, then I will say it. I dont play the man or girl though unless a) that man and woman has a personal go at me and b) I feel the occassional need to respond

    474 Nath

    Racism and fear of the other has a long history in Australia – White Australia (well known) and the 1946 Tradesmens Rights Recognition Act (less known) which basically ignored qualifications of foreign born tradespersons (other than from the UK of course). Of course both introduced by Labor governments of sacred memory.

    On Africans – 1% of all crime is commited by Africans in Victoria yet they represent 12,000 people. So the causes of that statistic are legitimate topics for public debate.

  28. 479 Ashley

    Many thanks for the grammar advice, and in the same vein may I suggest you learn to complete your sentences with a full stop.

  29. [ Your talking out of your bottom again ]


    How does the above statement NOT show contempt for the people you don’t agree with? Your just like all the other far right wing religious types. Lots of bold statements, even racist ones but no proof to back up your bigotry at all. I’m still waiting for the proof that the human race is in danger of extinction because there aren’t enough white people having babies.

    If you want to be treated seriously then behave as an adult. Stop abusing people and don’t make remarks based on religious dogma which have no proof to back them up.

  30. The O’Connor candidate Dominic Rose has (or had) some rather silly leftwing views, but he’s also a very serious young Christian of irreproachable personal character – unlike Cam Nation, your sacked candidate in Gorton. I can’t find the link to his dreadful video now, but I recommend it to you.

    Someone should also explain to the Vic Libs how google works. Although Mr Nation has been removed from the party website, they haven’t actually deleted his page, so google takes you straight to it.

  31. ESJ says:

    “Racism and fear of the other has a long history in Australia – White Australia (well known) and the 1946 Tradesmens Rights Recognition Act (less known) which basically ignored qualifications of foreign born tradespersons (other than from the UK of course). Of course both introduced by Labor governments of sacred memory”

    Mmm, the A.L.P introduced the White Australia Policy, tell that to Edmund Barton and Alfred Deakin who implemented it!

  32. Well one can still count on the loyalty of Cam Nation to Howard the same cannot be said of Rose to Rudd but we are talking apples and oranges here when you are trying to get people to run in these safe seats with no chance of winning sometimes a few bad eggs get in the system…

  33. Adam – or any other ALP member who might be on the site – I have a question for you. Don’t worry, not a trick one or anything, rather just a practical one.

    With the ALP, it is my understanding that you need to belong to a union in order to become a member. Fine no worries.

    What I’m wondering about is that candidate (can’t remember the electorate – maybe Northern NSW) who is a reasonably prominent small businessman – I think he owns a McDonalds or something…?

    Anyway, what happens when someone who is say… a small businessperson – someone who wouldn’t naturally belong to any union – wants to become a member of the ALP? Is there a bypass to the union membership requirement? How does the ALP handle it? Is there a token union for token members?

  34. Saintliness Sint Johnnes ——-not to be having hot unders collars …not especial good for suitings …take well trued remedies of pricks being accpuntruings to varoius bbad livers in body parts on biles to rids embowelmels of fowlish humors amd miasmas that’s makings of sickness in wholesomesness…,…

  35. Of course Labor supported White Australia for many years, no-one denies that. We have acknowledged that and in fact I think formally apologised for it, though I can’t find a reference for that at the moment. But as soon as we began to abandon White Australia in the 1960s, the Liberals began to exploit our change of policy to attack us. Who can forget the “If you want an Asian for a neighbour, vote Labor” leaflets circulated (anonymously of course) against Labor in 1972, or the racist campaign that saw Grassby defeated in 1974? Or Peacock’s anti-Japanese campaign against the Multi-Function Polis in 1990? Or Howard’s endorsement of Blainey’s comments in 1987? For the last 30 years at least, Labor has been the party of multiculturalism and a non-racial immigration policy, while the Libs have been the party of the racist dog-whistle, particularly when they’re in opposition (the actual immigration record of Liberal governments isn’t too bad, it’s the campaign rhetoric and covert appeals to racism that’s the issue).

  36. John Rocket, I think rules vary from state to state. In Victoria it is not a requirement to be a union member to be an ALP member. It may be in Qld, I don’t know. Anyone can take out a token membership of the AWU or whatever union they like so it’s hardly an issue. Under the Victorian rules, people who are employers of labour are free to join the ALP provided they undertake to abide by all relevant laws and awards in their employment practices. Qld probably has a similar clause.

  37. adam,

    you are taking great comfort hiding behind the skirt of the chief scientist.

    the chief scientist handed down a report under the terms of his limited terms of reference. sounds similar to awb.

    the chief scientist examined a narrow argument. we do not know the full results this mill will deliver.

    you would be best doing what you normally do, ie . arguing the correct politics of the decision and not the correct ethics of the decision.

  38. [ it’s the campaign rhetoric and covert appeals to racism that’s the issue ]

    Got to agree with that. My problem with the Libs is that they say one thing and do another. They support immigration when in office but use language to pander to the Hanson brigade. A bit like Bush in America. Seeks money and support from Gay groups most of the time but when an election comes along suddenly it’s the Gays are destroying the institution of marriage.

  39. I have just got in and while catching up on earlier posts I read post 438 by Adam and post 439 by Glen.

    Adam’s post makes me feel proud to be an Australian (5th generation) while Glen’s make me feel so ashamed that people that think like that still exist in this country

    Well-said Adam.

    As for Glen – I hope that he feels as ashamed as I fel by his comments.

  40. Paul K 483,


    1) Fagin’s comment was ignorant and patronising. Suggesting any one who didnt agree with the ALP’s multicultural policy should be “smacked” by the would be ALP immigration minister.

    2) Your trying to draw a long bow on population. The logical inference of what I think you are trying to argue is if we dont have children in Australia we’ll just replace ourselves from another poorer part of the world. African refugees in this country are often taught some of the most basic aspects of Western living which we couldnt comprehend – turning on a TV seat, getting into a bed etc. There’s just so many reasons that is a dumb argument.

    3) Religious dogma? What ? Not making any point on religious dogma, even in a secular atheist world its logical to promote childbirth – its a common good and an individual choice.

  41. So you don’t actually have to be employed in a relevant industry to be a member of a union? If so… that’s cool. I just remember reading an application for the NSW ALP a couple of years ago and seeing the requirement for union membership and thinking ‘well, what happens if…”

  42. Many thanks for the grammar advice

    ESJ — You’re welcome. Nothing quite so satisfying as letting a bit of air out of an over-inflated ego.

  43. WhoGivesaRats in response to your comment i have this to say…till hell freezes over will i feel ashamed for my beliefs…

    I pity the fool who does not understand that there are some peoples dont integrate into our country well…if we had to we should only bring in Asian refugees instead of Middle Eastern or African refugees…

    However we should make an exception for Iraq and Afghanistan since we have made troop commitments to those countries and people who work with us may be unfairly targeted by terrorists and should not do what Whitlam did to the South Vietnamese who worked with our consulate in Saigon and leave them to the wrath of the enemy…

  44. #

    “Apparently the stats have been collected on average rainfall under Labor and Liberal and we get more rain when we elect Labor Governments…”

    he, he, excellent. So statistically we might be able to pencil in an America’s Cup under Rudd too?

  45. Edward,

    You said people without children were not equal to people with children, because childless people were endangering the survival of the human race. When I said this was incorrect and asked for proof, you replied that there are too many Africans in the world and not enough Europeans. How is that not racist? How is too many Africans compared to too few Europeans endangering the human race? As usual you can’t provide proof for your racist immature view of the world.

  46. It depends on the union. You wouldn’t join the Nurses Federation if you weren’t a nurse. But the AWU doesn’t have a “relevant industry”, it’s a catchall union that just about anyone can join. That’s why many ALP MPs are AWU members. It’s a gesture of solidarity with the broader labour movement, even for members who don’t themselves have a union background.

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