Morgan: 61-39

Nobody believed the size of Labor’s lead in last week’s Morgan poll, but it’s now widened further, from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Both parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, Labor from 54 per cent to 53.5 per cent and the Coalition from 36 per cent to 35.5 per cent. For what it’s worth, the balance has gone to the Australian Democrats, up from 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face poll with 894 respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

377 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. EST 130 – Rudd will be hoping for a close election with a small majority of maybe 10 at most. As you suggest, the Left may rise up but that is only likely if there was a big majority with a mob of bored backbenchers cooking up trouble. Every leaders’ problem though.

  2. kiwi earlier said what I would say….. shift 5% off 2pp still a ALP landslide
    …… what is the margin in Menzies ? could Mr Andrews have problems?
    Does anyone who lives in Menzies have local knowledge?

    /

  3. [Slipper is a strange fellow, given to making speeches about religion late at night on the adjournment debate. She might give him a serious fright.]

    Interesting to note that Caroline is more credible than Noel Brunning in Forrest 🙂

  4. Thanks Damien J. It is interesting but not very convincing. Even if the same happens this time around I’m not sure it will be enough to save Howard.

  5. [Slipper is a strange fellow, given to making speeches about religion late at night on the adjournment debate. She might give him a serious fright.]

    Wasn’t he a Joh for Canberra backer? Hence Howard hates him, and has refused to make him a minister.

  6. Paul K, I agree. But it’s clear there’ll be a lot of angst on election night, regardless of the wonk sophistry. It seems we know enough to know what we don’t know.

  7. Yes he was, and lost the seat as a National in 1987, then came back later as a Liberal. I might add that he’s the only Coalition MP who’s willing to criticise China over Tibet, which is to his credit.

  9. I’m waiting for Edward to justify or explain his accusation of plagiarism against me.

    I’m waiting for Edward to justify or explain his accusation of plagiarism against me.

    I’m waiting for Edward to justify or explain his accusation of plagiarism against me.

  10. Make no bones about it. If health is going to be a major election issue, a record defeat for the libs is almost certain.

    Hmm. Which shall I enjoy the most:
    a) Howard conceding defeat on election night.
    b) Costello being repeatedly called a weak leader in QT.
    c) Costello being stabbed in the back mid term.
    d) Our favourite journos with egg on their face.

    It’s all good, we are going to be in for a treat.

  11. [b) Costello being repeatedly called a weak leader in QT.]

    Assuming Labor win, and assuming Costello is smart, he will let Turnbull take the leadership, and ask to be put in foreign affairs. Costello has nothing to gain being opposition leader straight after a defeat.

  12. Antony Green Says:
    October 5th, 2007 at 6:27 pm

    I love putting these swings into the calculator

    Doesn’t go far enough, you can’t answer the question:

    How big does the swing have to be for the national party to become the majority conservative party. Done my own based on the assumption Liberal voters are getting upset at the same rate in all seats, I think the answer is about 16%.

    I think the Liberal front bench have taken a bet and this is what they are aiming for.

    Only 4% to go. Goooooooooooooo Andrews Ra Ra, black black black; you can do it; come on Andrews your close.

    Come on Glen, get with the Liberal Front bench, try and get the margin wider. Come on a few racial slurs, attack the states, come on, the Liberals can do it; total destruction in one election.

  13. ShowsOn – no he has nothing to gain being first batter up, of course… but given Mr. Costello’s track record on leadership – if he doesn’t take it then – his career will well and truly be over (if it’s not already).

  15. If Costello doesn’t take the leadership after the election he never will be Party Leader. He’ll get part of the blame for the election loss and if he hands over to Turnbull he’s finished for ever. He’s only hope is to take the bull by the horns and grab the leadership and hold on for dear life.

  16. Adam,

    It would seem that Howard has taught Edward well. Never admit you were wrong and never say sorry. I think you’ve frightened the poor boy back into his box.

  17. {not supposed to be here but on holidays and our hotel for one night has wireless internet so getting my Morgan fix}

    Saw this up on the SMH. It appears that Hockey might not be the only cabinet minister facing court action 😉

    http://tinyurl.com/3xhwwd

    How many ministers will end up in court before the election is held? 😉

  18. 126
    Lomandra Says:
    October 5th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
    It’s a bit like reading a murder mystery where you’ve worked out the ending and are just waiting for the author get to the point. The longer they throw unconvincing red herrings at you, the more annoyed you get, but you have to keep reading just in case you’re wrong.
    ..
    Lomandra, I agree with you. The whole process is developing a sense of anti-climax. I’ve been chatting to many of my acquaintances lately: the themes from them are that Labor will probably win, that Howard has muffed it. There is a sense that they don’t know Rudd very well, but they know more than they care to about Howard and would just like the process to move on. I have a feeling it may be difficult for the parties to mobilize public attention: this campaign has been interminable already….

  20. I see the election a bit like watching the movie Titanic. You know the good ship SS Liberal is going to hit iceberg Rudd and sink but will Leo and Kate survive?

  25. 136
    Damien J Says:
    October 5th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
    Re: 118 and 121:
    I thought Howard looked old and tired in 2004. He simply clutched the right straw (interest rates). I agree about Workchoices. The Government clearly broke faith with the people by showing its true colours. I also liked what Mark Latham offered. Who can forget his reply when some reporter asked him what he’d do about spiralling house prices. He suggested abolishing negative gearing would soon fix it….
    …
    But Damien, this idea would not necessarily help: it may lead to less investment in housing (less supply). This would make housing scarcer and increase prices. What really needs to happen to the housing market is that supply of housing to new entrants has to be increased and made more affordable. The tax system can be used to help. Perhaps negative gearing could be made available only for new housing. Perhaps the capital gains tax applying to high end property could be increased, steering investment to the new-entrant market….

    In general, Latham’s comments were kneejerk: designed to appeal to prejudice, not solve problems. It’s a great thing he lost…

  26. Gusface: another clue please. How exciting!

    An independent candidate to the swell – what a clever idea for Wentworth.

  27. [ShowsOn if Cossie is smart, he will know he will never be PM and it’s as close as he will ever get.]

    I agree that if there is a heavy loss the best thing Costello could do is retire and go back to being a barrister, but Michelle Grattan frequently says that Costello wants to be a career politician, which means 20 – 30 years, i.e. expect him in parliament until 2010 or 2020.

  30. Just saw our dear Health Minister Tony admit on TV that State Government spending on Health has been increasing faster than that of the Federal Government. Not a good look for someone saying Labor is the problem.

  33. I was recently assured very firmly by someone who knows Clover Moore well that she has no interest in federal politics and is thoroughly enjoying being Lord Mayor. In any case most of her state seat is in the federal seat of Sydney, not Wentworth.

  34. damien j
    firewall?

    oldtimer
    was via MIL
    academic- is still considering options
    (could be ruse to bolster king malcolm via prefs? or true “real liberal”)

    have been told will announce/non announce monday

  36. [Just saw our dear Health Minister Tony admit on TV that State Government spending on Health has been increasing faster than that of the Federal Government. ]

    I hope Labor use this quote in campaign advertising.

  38. Once again Glen serves his purpose here: to distract and deter himself from the real world reality that JWH is SCREWED for this election.

    He could wait till January 2008 before he faces the electorate and it would not do him or his party one ounce of good. He should call it this weekend for his Party’s sake and accept the vote of the electorate on the chin like any decent PM would do, oh yes I forgot, this is JWH we are talking about.

  39. Adam at #125
    “The main reason the Greens failed to elect a Senator in Vic is that they didn’t get enough votes. If they want to win seats, let them develop policies that people will vote for.”

    Victorian Senate votes 2004.

    Greens 8.7%
    Family First 1.8%
    Source: Psephos.

    Hmm.
    Seems the Greens got nearly 5 times the votes FF got.
    So by not developing policies that people voted for FF still got a seat despite getting 1/5th of the Greens’ votes.
    So maybe the ALP preferences did have something to do with FF
    winning?

    “It is Labor’s job to elect Labor Senators. ”
    And, in this example, a FF senator in preference to a Green senator.

  40. I have no doubt Colver is enjoying her mayoral incumbency. So did Lucy Turnbull, Frank Sartor and Doug Sutherland. It’s that kind of job. She’s also a nut. For example, she banned xmas decorations. Federal parliament is probably the safest place for her. Give her a Committee.

  41. Sample size/MOE calculation is so easy you only need the dodgy windows calculator. For 95% confidence, divide 0.98 by the square root of the sample size.

  43. [coincidentally sbs just had greens candidate for wentworth on!!!]

    Even better, there is another candidate running as representative of the “Conservation Coalition” which will help shift another percent or two away from Turnbull.

  47. Hmm, with this Morgan Poll being published so widely, am I wrong in thinking that there is a plot to manufacture another “Leadership Crisis” to produce anotgher sympathetic poll for Howard ?

  49. Tele report from 2 weeks ago “Mr Hawke and his wife Blanche d’Alpuget were seated alongside NSW Premier Morris Iemma, former premier Bob Carr, federal Labor candidate Maxine McKew and former AMA president Kerryn Phelps.” at an Al Gore dinner.

  50. #131 Dr Good, CFMEU’s Howard’s End.

    Drink to Howard’s end on election night with a limited edition wine
    Howard’s End is the perfect wine for any situation. Whether with friends, toasting John and Janette out of Kirribilli, or brooding alone on 11 years of opportunities lost. As an election night treat or an up market hub cap cleaner, one wine will always fit the bill.
    Whether you buy a bottle for yourself, or a dozen as gifts, Howard’s End is a great way to make a political statement while also raising money for the campaign against the Howard Government’s radical IR laws.
    Howard’s End will be available from Monday 8 October from the CFMEU at the bargain price of $10 per bottle. Call (02) 9749 0400 or email enquiries@nsw.cfmeu.asn.au for more information.

    So raise a glass and drink, to Howard’s End!

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