Nobody believed the size of Labor’s lead in last week’s Morgan poll, but it’s now widened further, from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Both parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, Labor from 54 per cent to 53.5 per cent and the Coalition from 36 per cent to 35.5 per cent. For what it’s worth, the balance has gone to the Australian Democrats, up from 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face poll with 894 respondents.
The issue with the coalition is not that they haven’t sold out their principles, its the evident belief in their entitlement to rule. Those close to the centre of these parties seriously believe everything’s okay with the Govrnment on the basis that their mates tell them so. I put it to you that many on this site believe in the near certainty of a Labor victory for the same reason. Maybe I’ll start posting as Cassandra. Hope Ajax keeps his distance!
[ the time has now passed for Howard to call an election for Nov. 10 ]
Actually he has until Monday but it’s a mute point as we know he won’t go in early November.
Even with this outrageous swing Indi and Farrer still wouldn’t change hands. What’s in the drinking water down here?
Noocat, the bets with the bookies are favouring November 24th. This obviously makes for more torture for those of us who want it called, but given the performance of Abbott, Hockey, Andrews, the much vaunted team, over recent days, I guess it’s possible it will just go on getting worse for them.
It’s a MOOT point, not a mute point.
James J, but don’t the other polls show a great set of numbers for Labor too?
“Actually he has until Monday…”
Yes, I stand corrected.
The later he leaves calling the election the further he goes into bush fire season. Makes it hared to argue that Climate Change is under control when the bush is on fire. The Greens will be hoping he calls the election as late as possible.
Adam,
The spelling gremlin got me again. I stand corrected.
A-C says – “There’s a chance Labor’s hollow bubble will burst.” So now there is only a chance. Come on A-C you don’t really believe that argument either, do you?
Glen, I’m saving my real beefs about Howard until (I hope) he is finally vanquished on election night.
… But since you keep going on about selling out principles, I think you should have a serious look at Howard’s attitude to Hanson (do nothing while her impact was mostly damaging to Labor) and the Border Protection- Pacific Solution fiascos of the 2001 campaign.
At least Tim Fisher and Jeff Kennett stood up directly to Hansonism.
And despite their origins in the history of the White Australia Policy, can you imagine the Party of Deakin and Menzies even contemplating punishing asylum-seekers merely to pander to Hansonists and Rednecks? If that’s not a selling out of principle, I’ll eat a bucketful.
But then, it is possible that Howard never had such principles to begin with.
Adam @ 99
i agree with what you say in this post.
but don’t the current…and i stress current…circumstances demand a deal between Labor and The Greens delivering prefs from Lab Greens AND ex Lib Greens in the HoR in exchange for prefs in the Senate.
Surely this silly flirtation with Family First has been ruled out by the hard heads.
any up to date inside knowledge on the thinking?
Damien J, the point is that all of the polls, over an extended period of time, are saying the same thing, i.e., the probability of the ALP winning the upcoming election is very high. Doesn’t mean they will win, just that the probability is very high, in fact, higher than we’ve seen for a very long time, and the probabliity also high of it being a landslide.
50 Glen, you’re and according to the polls parliament had no effect on the high Labor vote and no effect on improving the Liberal’s low vote.
“…the balance has gone to the Australian Democrats.”
What, we have Democrats now?
36 Glen Yeah, right that really worked well last time. Pull the other leg it plays jingle bells.
Looks like the Liberal candidate for Lyons will be gone after tomorrow. Hopefully he runs as as an independent against the mill, and splits off some of the Liberal vote.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22537819-29277,00.html
Richard Farmer has an interesting story in Crikey today. He points out that Newspoll underestimated the 2PP Coalition vote in three of the last five elections. Here’s what he said:
“In three of the last five federal elections there has been a difference of 4.8 percentage points or more in a party’s vote as recorded by Newspoll with a month to go and the actual vote on polling day. This year the Coalition Government needs to improve by less than that and has two months in which to do so if Mr Howard decides to wait as long as possible.”
He then provides the numbers. Other people posting on this site know more about this but me but it seems we’re not out of the woods yet.
Damien, i would suggest the bulk of those moving 4 % points in the last month goes to the side with the momentum.
after their huge advertising blitzes in the last 3 elections…which were positive for the Government…they had that momentum.
this election is different. the momemtum is with Labor and away from Howard.
Damien J,
In the last 3 out of 5 elections there wasn’t a policy known as Work Choices, Howard didn’t look as old and tired as he does now and he didn’t face Rudd.
[He then provides the numbers. Other people posting on this site know more about this but me but it seems we’re not out of the woods yet.]
Can you provide the numbers, because as far as I know the biggest movement a party has acheived this far out from an election was 3.5% in 2004. If the government acheives that this time they will lose the election by about half a dozen seats. (Assuming that the ALP is currently on 55 to 45 2pp).
#58: “I love putting these swings into the calculator”
By jingo, Antony Green, I love it when you do it too! 18 Coalition/130 Labor. Yikes.
Damien J, Richard fails to take recent policies, circumstances and new leadership into account in making these points. He also fails to comment on the consistency of all of the polls over the year. This election will be nothing like we have seen before.
Adam plagiarism re Glen,
flattery or something the quote goes I think?
Harry @ 101.
I have no inside knowledge about preference deals, and if I did I wouldn’t tell you 🙂
The Senate election system makes preference deals unavoidable. Labor does deals designed to maximise Labor’s chances of winning seats. The deal with FF in Vic in 2004 was not a “flirtation” with them in a political sense, it was simply a bargain over a block of preferences. It was a perfectly sound deal, based on the assumptions at that point about the vote the various parties would get. It came unstuck because the Democrat vote fell sharply, and also because the Labor vote was lower than expected. The Dems were eliminated and their vote went to FF (no-one seems to criticise the Dems for preferencing FF). That put FF ahead of the No 3 Labor candidate, who was then eliminated, electing Fielding over the Green.
If Labor concludes that the best way to win Senate seats in Vic is again to preference FF, we will do so again, and quite rightly. It is Labor’s job to elect Labor Senators. It is not Labor’s job to elect Green Senators, thus increasing the Green threat to our own base vote. The main reason the Greens failed to elect a Senator in Vic is that they didn’t get enough votes. If they want to win seats, let them develop policies that people will vote for.
Blindoptimist, #95: “I think the process is wearing thin with a lot of people: they want a conclusion and are feeling duly frustrated with Howard for delaying the poll.”
It’s a bit like reading a murder mystery where you’ve worked out the ending and are just waiting for the author get to the point. The longer they throw unconvincing red herrings at you, the more annoyed you get, but you have to keep reading just in case you’re wrong.
Richard Farmer’s figures published in Crikey today. It was in a table. Sorry about the line breaks:
Year
Government
Poll
Election
Difference
2008
Coalition
44.0
48.7?
4.7?
2004
Coalition
48.0
52.8
4.8
2001
Coalition
56.0
51.0
-5.0
1998
Coalition
48.5
49.0
0.5
1996
Labor
46.0
46.3
0.3
1993
Labor
46.5
51.4
4.9
James J at 7 links to an Oz Politics graph
which suggests that Morgan is out of step with the other pollers.
Certainly, Morgan seems more Labory than Nielsen and Newspoll while Galaxy is certainly more Liberally shifted.
However, the impression given by the graph is subtly magnified by the use of the statistical technique, the Henderson Moving Average. Because Morgan is the most recent poll it seems to be picking up a downturn in Liberal support which may well be real. The others especially Nielsen and Galaxy have not been reported for a while so their graphs just come to a stop near their actual last values.
When the next Nielsen and Galaxy comes in then it is quite possible that they will pick up the downturn and then what happens? Well, the orange and blue lines do not get extended down from where they are now. No. The existing lines going back a month or so will also get moved down
due to the smoothing. This will bring them more in line with Morgan.
I suggest that it would be more truthful to taper off these smoothed graphs with a gradually fading dash. This will indicate that the graph here is only provisional.
Let us see early next week if Morgan is still so out of line.
um, Edward, what have I plagiarised? (This better be good.)
Is there any more point posting Adam called it earlier today and it seems others like GB have too. Old Ruawake seems to be having Labor prole fantasies about question time too.
There also seems to be much glorying in Rudd taking a de facto Liberal stance.
Assume all this glorying is true – will Labor’s left lie down quietly after the election?? My prediction Lindsay Tanner will end up being the SL’s Roger Douglas and do them big time.
Will the left rise up? Or will the spoils of office prove too much? Some of you must be going to be or are Labor staffers come the revolution, surely you can actually share some critical insights rather than just chest beat?
By the way did someone mention “Howard’s End” wine being available somewhere.
I think I should buy some.
Lomandra
!8 seats for the libs, actually 14 when you counts the Nats, is actually a good result. It will clean out all the extreme right nutcases in the liberal party and hopefully lead to a rebuilding of the liberal party that Menzies vison for it was. Not his present insulated, racist, xenophobic cabal.
The liberals and Australia need the enema that the polls are predicting to clean out all the crap that has accumulated over the past 11 years.
[Adam: It came unstuck because the Democrat vote fell sharply,]
Surely this was expected.
[Some of you must be going to be or are Labor staffers come the revolution]
I wish!
[However, the impression given by the graph is subtly magnified by the use of the statistical technique, the Henderson Moving Average. ]
Does the fact there are twice as many Morgan polls (because they report every Firday) also alter the validity of the Henderson moving average, relative to the other polls?
The thing I think is interesting about the Morgan is that it repeatedly fluctuates BEFORE the other polls, suggesting it picks up poll movement before the others, I guess because there are just more polls.
Damien,
Can you provide the Crikey link as I’m having trouble following what you’ve typed, especially the figures for the 2008 election!
Edward StJohn
Surely you must agree that the Govts re-election campaign has been a disaster.
I note you need someone to teach you ethics, maybe if the Howard Cabinet had the advantage of your ethics mentor they would not be in the awful mess they are now.
Again I ask you to refute my arguments, not just waffle. You are another amateur, yes I am an oldie. But experience beats ignorance.
Howard has lost the election, but you will still be scratching your head in two years time trying to figure out why. 🙂
Re: 118 and 121:
I thought Howard looked old and tired in 2004. He simply clutched the right straw (interest rates). I agree about Workchoices. The Government clearly broke faith with the people by showing its true colours. I also liked what Mark Latham offered. Who can forget his reply when some reporter asked him what he’d do about spiralling house prices. He suggested abolishing negative gearing would soon fix it. The (I hesitate to say) establishment almost soiled itself on the spot! I was, however, concerned when Bob Carr said late in 2003 “Mark Latham, leader? That’ll be an interesting 12 months”.
[Can you provide the Crikey link as I’m having trouble following what you’ve typed, especially the figures for the 2008 election!]
It’s subscriber only content.
Do the numbers show the Newspoll at exactly the same amount of days before each election? Or are they just a “find the lowest the winning party polled” If it is the later then I don’t see how they are significant.
[ Some of you must be going to be or are Labor staffers]
Please. If Labor wins the election it will be because lots of people who have voted for Howard in the past will vote Labor this time. That’s a heck of a lot of staff Labor must be putting on.
The Prime Minister:
“My focus this weekend will be very much on that historic clash between Australia and England,” Mr Howard told Southern Cross radio today.
I thought that his focus was on continuing to govern – he stated as much only a few days ago. Clearly a game of football takes precedence over the best interests of the nation.
The silly old bugger is off to lunch with the fairies.
I’m waiting for Edward to justify or explain his accusation of plagiarism against me.
I have now posted circumscription-level figures for the recent legislative elections in Morocco. I’m sure you’ve all been eagerly awaiting these results.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/m/morocco/
Howard looked pathetic on the news trying to justify not calling the election because he wants to watch a game of the fourth rated football code in the middle of the night on the other side of the world (in the land of the cheese eating surrender monkeys, no less). And he wants to work on that smile. He’s looking like an old, chamois headed game show host.
Just call it and put us all out of our misery, Coco.
I didn’t know they played football in England.
And here is another High- Profile “Celebrity Candidate.
[Sunshine Coast MP Peter Slipper has today denied taking his safe Liberal for granted and welcomed news of a challenge from high profile radio personality Caroline Hutchinson.
Mrs Hutchinson announced her candidacy today and farewelled her listeners on Mix FM, preparing to put her shoulder to the wheel and her heart and soul into the campaign.
She said she would not be pushing any political ideology with her views falling mid-way between the two major parties – or ‘a little bit country and a little bit rock ‘n roll’ as she put it.
Nor would she be advising her supporters how to direct their preferences.
“I want people to vote 1 for me and they can direct their preferences wherever they like,” Mrs Hutchinson said.]
http://www.thedaily.com.au/news/2007/oct/05/slipper-ready-challenge-radio-queen/
Arbie @132
more like colonic irrigation id say
anyhoo the real test will come when the electorate stops bloody sleepwalking
Adam,
Thanks for the info on Morocco. I know that Glen and Edward are really hanging out for the Party of Progress and Socialism and the Party of the Democratic Socialist Vanguard to do well.
The BS above is beyond a joke. The last two Morgans have shown 54-36 or thereabouts. Over the same two weekends, first Galaxy had 46-40 and then Newspoll had 48-39.
Morgan is rubbish. As I’ve said before: ignore it. After a small spike around the end of August/early September, Labor seem to be back to their mid-year trend of about 47-40 in the reliable polls. I’m almost certain that ACN will show somewhere in the range of 44-49 for Labor and 39-41 for the Coalition that has essentially prevailed since late May.
Farmer’s article is interesting, but I think misleading because it depends on 1) the flawed preference calculations of Newspoll in 2004 and 2) the 9/11 opinion poll spike which was probably always a bit inflated in 2001.
#141 (Howard looked pathetic on the news trying to justify not calling the election because he wants to watch a game of the fourth rated football code in the middle of the night on the other side of the world).
And more than likely he wont be doing anything for the next couple of weeks either as the wallabies play on.
Pailine Howard of the One Liberal Party said today she
” supported the Federal Government’s decision to cut the intake of African refugees, saying HIV is on the increase and diseases like TB and leprosy are turning up in Australia”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22535667-29277,00.html
This echoed comments from John Hanson who said recently
“Australia already stopped people with tuberculosis coming in and this was why he supported stopping HIV-positive people as well. ”
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21550522-5005961,00.html
It was pointed out to John that the hundreds of thousands of 457 workers brought into Australia and exploited under Work Choices were not subject to any health checks.
John then stormed off accusing the reporter, the media, the health department and immigration of being labor stooges and union bosses.
Annd they wonder why they are polling so low, bring on the enema!
Paul K@ 134 and Showson @137. Here’s the Richard Farmer numbers formatted as clearly as I could. He doesn’t count number of days – just states one month out:
Year, 2008, Government: Coalition, Poll 44.0, Election 48.7?, Difference 4.7?
Year, 2004, Government: Coalition, Poll 48.0, Election 52.8, Difference 4.8
Year, 2001, Government: Coalition, Poll 56.0, Election 51.0, Difference -5.0
Year, 1998, Government: Coalition, Poll 48.5, Election 49.0, Difference 0.5
Year, 1996, Government: Labor, Poll 46.0, Election 46.3, Difference 0.3
Year, 1993, Government: Labor, Poll 46.5, Election 51.4, Difference 4.9
You’ve got to aquestion the reliability of polling data.
Frank, thanks for pointing out Caroline Hutchinson’s candidacy. She already has quite a slick website up.
http://www.votecaroline.com.au/
Slipper is a strange fellow, given to making speeches about religion late at night on the adjournment debate. She might give him a serious fright.