Nobody believed the size of Labor’s lead in last week’s Morgan poll, but it’s now widened further, from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Both parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, Labor from 54 per cent to 53.5 per cent and the Coalition from 36 per cent to 35.5 per cent. For what it’s worth, the balance has gone to the Australian Democrats, up from 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face poll with 894 respondents.
paul k Says:
[ Howard has a lot to gain by having another week or two in Parliament to hammer Rudd ]
Because as we all know the nation watches Parliament question time religiously and what’s said in Parliament decides every election. Dream on.
LOL good point paul k,
I dont think “Question Time” comes in the top 100 program ratings for the week
Glen, you are right, the last sitting of parliament did get a lot of coverage, but did it lead to a poll bounce for the government?
It does appear that Morgan’s sample has a definite urban bias – even though it got the ALP + Coalition primary votes right within around 1%, it overstated the Green vote (as I think did everyone) and understated the ‘other parties’ vote.
The fact that Morgan is now so far ahead of the other polls may reflect the urban bias – Newspoll has the ALP ahead 59-41 in the 5 capital cities between July and September, while it is ahead 54-46 in the bush. If Newspoll was to go up to say, 58-42, as it could well do in a week dominated by health and the approval of the Tasmanian pulp mill, the ALP city vote could realistically be 61-39.
Of course it’s not going to be 61-39 – but it’s certainly going to be a wild ride for some seats on election night.
What may make a difference is whether people in safe seats suddenly think their vote counts, in which case some people who had automatically voted Liberal because the Libs always held the seat might switch. I’m sure some of those 10% who decide on polling day must vote on that basis.
Once again Morgan’s “soft voter” stat looks like a joke.
No
Glen,
What’s wrong? You haven’t accused me of hubris for at about 16 hours. Or have you already used your daily quota of ‘accusations of hubris’?
Has anyone considered that Howard might be holding out to prevent Rudd from recalling parliament before Christmas – as he said he would – to put through the first of his IR changes.
I love putting these swings into the calculator
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Oh i dont know paul hows about this for size my political party cant even get 40% 2PP in polls from Morgan and cant get below 55-45 with the rest hows about that for starters…
No but i shall happily accuse you paul of supporting a political party that has sold out its core beliefs…
[ supporting a political party that has sold out its core beliefs… ]
Now that’s more like the Glen I know. All we need now is a UNIONS are going to take over the world and your done for the night.
just remember everyone, once the election proper starts we’ll get the full blast of the coalition’s vicious spite/smear campaign, thats sure to draw some waverers back to their fold, quite a few people only read the headlines of a newspaper and take it as fact, i know because until i had a much more indepth interaction with the media i was niave enough to believe if it was printed or on telly it had to be true, nowadays i only believe 10% of what i read or hear, it’s these waverers who could be a slight worry— i just loathe the government sooo much and want them out and i’m terrified of another Tampa coming on the horizen!
From my reading of the polls everytime The House sits Labor gets a bounce, Whenever politics is “in the news” Howard goes backwards.
Why would he want The House to sit again? To re-announce policies? To respend money from failed schemes? To stop Liberal candidates from campaigning in their electorates?
But seeing Howard had done everything wrong this year, he probably will let Parliament sit.
Post no 14 – john of melbourne – its just how you spin it that is all..Costello had his media advisors working overtime i would think to make it somehow look good.
I agree with Glen.
You need to know how to read the polls and allowing for the well known Morgan bias, the underlying figure is really 39/61.
Also if you discount 10 months of hammering Rudd, all that is needed now to turn the fortunes around for Howard is JUST ONE MORE CHANCE in Parliament and a longish election campaign to HAMMER Rudd.
There is no reason why something which was obviously spectacularly unsuccessful cannot work now. JUST ONE MORE CHANCE!
After all what else do the Libs left? The race card maybe?
No matter how desperate Howard and Libs might be, they will never sell their souls, their principles in the pursuit of power. They would rather lose power than do that.
If only people here could see Howard in the same light as Glen and I do, this forum would be more realistic and credible.
Glen is the only one on this forum with proper insight and balance to understand what democracy is really about.
BTW who says that Howard has to call an election at all? The constitution? It is just a document which can be changed in the national interest during a national emergency to save a national hero.
Send in the Clowns:
Friday October 5, 05:56 PM
Hanson launches campaign song
Pauline Hanson made a musical foray into the faux federal election campaign, launching her theme song with her country music singer partner Chris Callaghan.
Entitled Australian Way of Life, Mr Callaghan sang the song at a Gold Coast Media and Corporate Club luncheon, Ms Hanson’s first major event since the registration of her United Australia Party.
“No but i shall happily accuse you paul of supporting a political party that has sold out its core beliefs…”
Glen, which particular core beliefs has Labor sold out on?
This Sample Size Calculator is fun
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
Judy (60)
To paraphrase the late Kerry Packer’s comment re Alan Bond, you only get one Tampa in a lifetime.
Don’t fret Judy.
the Coalition have nothing to sell anymore. They can’t run on their record because its not about “the future”. And they can’t run on fear because the deserters aren’t scared of Kevin.
Game Over.
he will call it on Sunday and lead his Party into oblivion
Can anyone come up with a sensible reason why Howard would recall parliament?
If he does so, you would think he would have to do something a bit significant (pass some serious legislation) or he will really look like he is time and money wasting.
Good night tragics, Keep up the good work Glen.
Go Johnny go, go, Johnny be good 😉
Hows about….
The environment….(supporting the pulp mill)
Health…(supporting the safety net)
IR…(workchoices lite except removal of AWAs)
Economic policy…(tax cuts, supported roll back of GST then didnt, supports fiscal conservatism)
Supported NT intervention…
Immigration policy…(supports ban on increasing african intake)
FP/Defence…(supports Afghanistan deployment and wants to send more troops…wants to leave some troops in the region but not in Iraq)
The list goes on but hey Noocat the ALP are sell outs but it was the only way for them to become electable…
Go Johnny, Going Going GONE. 🙂
[Why would he want The House to sit again? To re-announce policies? To respend money from failed schemes? To stop Liberal candidates from campaigning in their electorates?]
Good points. I can’t see how letting parliament sit again helps the government at all. It just lets Rudd appear on TV everynight asking the government why they screwed something up.
[The list goes on but hey Noocat the ALP are sell outs but it was the only way for them to become electable…]
That means Howard sold out when he repudiated his comments about Asian immigration. It means he is a sell out when he supported Medicare and Superannuation.
It doesn’t matter how many times the ALP agrees or disagrees with the government over issues, the ALP has one huge advantage – its leader isn’t John Howard or Peter ‘Gutless’ Costello.
Thanks Mr Speaker, my question is to the Prime Minister.
Why have you refused to call the election, when it is well past the 3 years that the constitution says, do you agree with the member for Mayo that the constitution allows for parliament to sit for 3 years and 3 months?
How much has this delay, in calling the election, cost the people of Australia?
To Anyone,
but including Glen, John of Melbourne and erstwhile other apologists for the forces of money
Re Health funding
How, pray tell, does a $3billion a year subsidy to the private health care sector to fund BigPharma, plus the ridiculous Medicare “Safety” Net to finance running shoes in Wentworth possibly equate to a rational health care funding model?
Abbott and Costello are well caught out.
Costello because he has been the bag man for Howard buying his way back into office by recyling money UP the tax brackets (anyone on less than $120,000 and who doesn’t think they aren’t getting back their own bracket creep is a mug – just ask why Peter won’t release the decile breakdown on his tax “cuts” as requested by the Australian and Michael McKenna under FOI and blocked by Costello using “conclusive certificates”)
Doesn’t he realise that while financing “Honest” John he has financed the end of any credibility he might try to sell to the public?
By supporting Howard he has signed his own death warrant
Abbott just because he is fundamentally a free market zealot who believes the public sector is always wrong….despite the fact that I don’t seem to be able to find any life of Abbott devoid of public funding (sorry, apparently he was a journalist for a while – with Kerry Packer, so I guess he just knows how to sell messages for powerful people)
some Christian
Sorry if this offends, but what the heck….time for some robust debate
That was Howard’s belief not the Liberal Party’s and its not a core belief of the Liberal Party to block lawful immigration of people from Asia i hate to break it to you…Howard has supported Super and so have the Coalition…throughout our time in office…
Actually the Coalition changed Universal health care to suit its philosophy when in won in 1975 by splitting up Medibank into private and public…so you argument fails ShowsOn im afraid…
Question ShowsOn would you give a massive promotion to President to a board member whose only been a board member for one year??? Nobody would and that’s why the Australian people will think twice when they come to vote…
Gee, Glen, we’re really sorry not to adopt a set of hairy-lefty policies so that you guys can beat us again. We promise to announce support for the collectivisation of agriculture and confiscating the savings of the middle class, just to even things up again. Is that better?
No but your post proves that the ALP are sellouts plain and simple…straight from the horses mouth…
There’s no pleasing some people.
I think in an outlier poll like this, the right-wing trolls mantra of “5% on for the Coalition and 5% off for Labor” in both Primary and 2PP support might just make sense for the Morgan polls.
Using that formula for this poll, for 2PP the Coalition is 44.5% compared to Labor’s 55.5% – still a Labor landslide. Even for Primary Support, Labor is at a high 48.5% compared with 40.5% for the Coalition. That is in line with recent Newspoll, Galaxy and AC Nielsen polls.
But I think the telling statistic is the “who do you think will win” question. Two months out from the 2004 election (in polling done by Morgan from 31 July – 8 August 2004) 52.5% thought the Coalition would win the election – compared with 33.5% for Labor and 14% “can’t say”.
Now about two months out from the 2007 election, the Morgan poll says a whopping 61% say Labor will win and only 27% think the Coalition will win with 12% “can’t say”.
All the polls, all the betting markets and about three-quarters of all my Aussie friends and relations that I’ve spoken to are saying a Labor win this year (many of the same people in 2004 who thought Howard was a shoo in for a 4th term as PM). My uncle in Perth’s most repeated phrase to me this year is “ah, bloody Howard!” and he’s in the Stirling electorate in the state that’s supposed to be having only a slight swing away from the Coalition!
Something pretty drastic is going to happen between now and December for the Coalition’s fortunes to change and it’ll have to be another Tampa plus a Rudd having a “Latham moment” on the campaign trail which is theoretically possible but in reality very unlikely.
In New Zealand however I predict strife for Labour and success for National – in the NZ general election (due in September/October 2008) Helen Clark’s minority Labor-Progressive coalition government will be defeated by John Key’s National Opposition which together with ACT and United will form a minority coalition government. Note: under NZ’s proportional Multi-Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system there have only been minority coalition governments since 1997. The last majority coalition government was National-New Zealand First in 1996-7, and they only had a 2 seat majority over all the other parties in Parliament (or a 1 seat majority if you don’t count the Speaker of the House).
My reason for an Labor victory this year in Australia and a National victory in New Zealand next year? Simple – a tired accident prone government with a PM past their use-by date (ie. Howard and Clark) up against a long out of power but now re-energised Opposition party with a playing-it-safe “all things to everyone” media savvy leader (ie. Rudd and Key).
Glen,
the ALP could only claim this fertile ground because your Party deserted it to head to the Far Right.
Gee, if the specious reasonings put forward by the tories on this blog are indicative of the Coalition Parties in general, they are in for real bumpy future.
As for the Morgan Poll, I always think they have traditionally favoured Labor. I think this one is a bit too fanciful. But great to see on Antony’s calculator all the same.
I call the Deputy Opposition Leader.
Thank you Mr Speaker, my question is to the minister for workplace relations.
Why after denigrating the research of distinguished academics do you release figures that are 18 months old, figures that confirm that people on AWAs are over $100 a week worse off under your unfair, extreme, IR changes?
John of Melbourne, If you think Costello is credible on health funding, you are seriously misinformed. One of the serious pressures on acute public hospitals is the number of people who need care in either a hostel or nursing home, Federal responsibility and less expensive, who can’t be moved from more expensive acute hospital beds because there’s nowhere to place them. Victoria has been seriously under funded for umpteen years in relation to aged care. In fact, this might be another one of the strange things happening in Victoria in terms of the swing here that causes Possum’s abacus so much difficulty. It’s not that difficult to get it pretty right in relation planning needed services by calculating the number and mix of different levels of care needed with some demographic analysis, and where the care is needed. Every one who works in management in the health care sector could give you chapter and verse on the blame and cost shifting that goes on between the Fed. and State level, the waste that ensues and the idiocy that flows from ‘silo’ funding.
Howard’s Core Beliefs:
1/ Poor people can’t be trusted.
2/ Foreigners are dangerous.
3/ Rich people deserve all the money they can get.
4/ I’d follow George B anywhere.
5/ It’s not wrong to tell a lie if you can use it to get people to vote for you.
Any more Glen?
Returning to Parliament one last time would be plain ridiculous. The country wants to vote! Who is interested in parliamentiary antics? What matters is the next Parliament, not this one, which has well and truly outlived its usefulness.
I’m sure people want to focus on the issues and the candidates, consider the choices, make sure they’re happy, fulfil their civic duty and get back to normal.
But, for Rudd’s sake, I hope he postpones as long as possible. It will drive people mad and mobilize the biggest landslide ever seen.
Glen, I think you should be looking a little closer to home before you turn yourself into a huge hypocrite. Here are the core beliefs of the Liberal Party:
“We believe in the inalienable rights and freedoms of all peoples; and we work towards a lean government that minimises interference in our daily lives; and maximises individual and private sector initiative.”
Over 11 years, the Liberal Party has INCREASED the size of government.
“We believe in government that nurtures and encourages its citizens through incentive, rather than putting limits on people through the punishing disincentives of burdensome taxes and the stifling structures of Labor’s corporate state and bureaucratic red tape.”
Over 11 years, the Liberal Party has produced the HIGHEST taxing government in Australia’s history. WorkChoices has proven to be a greater bureaucratic nightmare than the previous industrial relations system. Add to that the GST. Bureaucracy and red tape has not been reduced during the life of the Howard government.
“We believe in those most basic freedoms of parliamentary democracy – the freedom of thought, worship, speech and association.”
I wonder where all the racist dog-whistling, particularly to do with Muslims, fits into this. Glen, you should also read “Silencing Dissent”. It is a book that documents all the ways in which Howard has reduced freedom of speech. And what about the freedom to associate with unions? This government has done its best to undermine this as much as possible.
“We believe in a just and humane society in which the importance of the family and the role of law and justice is maintained.”
I wonder what David Hicks would think of our “just” and “humane” society. Dr. Haneef might have some thoughts on this too, along with a whole heap of refugees.
“We believe in equal opportunity for all Australians; and the encouragement and facilitation of wealth so that all may enjoy the highest possible standards of living, health, education and social justice.”
Despite the pledge for equal opportunity, why is that the Howard government still can’t bring themselves to giving equal legal and financial rights to gay couples? Also, I wonder whether all those people who have had their take home pays reduced by WorkChoices think about the Liberal Party’s belief that we should “ALL” experience the highest standard of living possible. WorkChoices is really about distributing greater wealth to company coffers and out of the pockets of the lowest paid workers. Howard has also done considerable damage to higher education by not providing adequate funding… and anyway, the list goes on and on.
“We believe that, wherever possible, government should not compete with an efficient private sector; and that businesses and individuals – not government – are the true creators of wealth and employment.”
This they have stuck to. Howard has done his best to privatise as much as he can, albeit I do not agree that the private sector is always the most efficient at providing essential services.
“We believe in preserving Australia’s natural beauty and the environment for future generations.”
Ha! And the pulp mill? Climate change?
“We believe that our nation has a constructive role to play in maintaining world peace and democracy through alliance with other free nations.”
Waging a war in Iraq is unlikely to have contributed much to world peace. In fact, it has probably made Australia an even greater terrorist target, as well as resulting in the destruction of another country, with hundreds of thousands of people dead, and millions of families torn apart. Howard has been one of the most hawkish PMs we have ever had, hardly a great ambassador of peace.
http://www.liberal.org.au/?action=4&page=1
So, Glen, you claim such virtuosity for yourself and your side. But do you really think that the Liberal Party has stuck to its core beliefs? As far as I can see, Howard has pretty much trashed much of what the Liberal Party once believed and stood for.
My response to Glen’s post on his claims about labor selling out its core beliefs is awaiting moderation…
Who says this poll is an outlier? It might be, but that would make two outliers in a row from Morgan, which is, I believe statistically unlikely. You can argue that Morgan polls have a pro-Labor bias, and you may be right, but the fact remains that in July Morgan had Labor in the mid 50s, and now they have Labor at around 60. Even allowing for bias, that suggests the trend is going the wrong way for the Libs, and that was also the message of the last Newspoll and the last Nielsen. These can’t all be outliers. If next week’s Nielsen confirms the trend, I think it will be time for Glen to give up on General Wenck and flee to the Bavarian Alps with some tins of Spam.
Adam – if what you say is true – and i dont want to doubt you – then we are potentially looking at a huge electoral trainwreck!
OK, next question then…
Assume he isn’t going to recall parliament, so he will probably have to call an election either this weekend (which apparently he won’t, because he’ll be watching the telly) or late next week.
If he calls it late next week, will he be game to call it for Dec 1? That would make an election campaign of just over 7 weeks… pretty effing long.
I call the member for Gellibrand.
Thank you Mr Speaker. My question is to the minister for health.
When will you restore the funding balance to public hospitals as agreed under the various medicare agreements, why has the Govt turned its back on the public health system?
Will you now admit that you are not the best friend medicare has ever had?
well it makes total sense for the votes of the major parties to go down.
it’s because they both, stupidly, support the pulp mill.
Here’s an interview over the pulp mill:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=X6KgXhx3CtI
The Democrats and Greens are opposed to it, so their vote won’t gow down.
use logic..
I think the process is wearing thin with a lot of people: they want a conclusion and are feeling duly frustrated with Howard for delaying the poll. The biggest motivator in this election is dissatisfaction with Howard, and he is just fueling this by procrasinating. I’m not slightly surprised by the Morgan numbers. They are essentially more of the same, which is what we’ve been getting from the Liberals for so long. Gawd it’s time for an election!!!
Adam @ 90,
“If next week’s Nielsen confirms the trend, I think it will be time for Glen to give up on General Wenck and flee to the Bavarian Alps with some tins of Spam.”
I reckon Glen will flee to the Snowy Mountains and use his tax-payer funded Liberal Party wireless laptop to bombard us Howard Haters’ computers with SPAM! 🙁
Has anyone else had a look at Antony’s site with this swing factored in? Gawd! How many of the back benchers, no, front benchers have a look and need medicating?
Well, the time has now passed for Howard to call an election for Nov. 10. That leave Nov. 17 as the next date, which he would have to call next week. Failing that and we are getting very close to a December poll, which would really get under the skin of all those who are already becoming sick of all the politics.
I agree the Greens will get a boost from the pulp mill. But so will Labor because it will confirm the socially-conservative working-class voters in the regional centres in their decision to switch back to Labor. Labor will quite happily lose a few % to the Greens, which will come back anyway as preferences, in exchange for strengthening the Labor position in Macquarie, Bass, Braddon, Eden-Monaro, Page, Paterson, McMillan etc.