Morgan: 61-39

Nobody believed the size of Labor’s lead in last week’s Morgan poll, but it’s now widened further, from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Both parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, Labor from 54 per cent to 53.5 per cent and the Coalition from 36 per cent to 35.5 per cent. For what it’s worth, the balance has gone to the Australian Democrats, up from 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face poll with 894 respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

377 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. I can understand both the major parties losing some of their primary but to see it go to the Democrats? What has happened to suddenly make the Democrats more attractive? It’s all within the margin of error.

  2. Too good to be true. Where did the 894 respondents come from? Bankstown Labor Club?

    Seriously, what are possible sources of bias?

  3. Hilarious. el rodente has not been listening to anyone – the longer he leaves it the worse it gets. By the time he calls it – the numbers will be 70/30 or worse. The Libs campaign team are obviously out to lunch.

  4. This is about right for a face to face, people are more prepared to give an honest answer and it reflects the mood in the community.

  5. What a beautiful set of numbers to take into the election if it is called this weekend. The Liberals are going to need a pearler of a campaign to get back from here.

  6. the non believers better start believing that the shiny new Rudd_Gillard centre right Labor Party welcomed in moderate Lib supporters months and months ago….and they aren’t leaving until Howard does.

  7. The good thing is the pulp mill factor probably won’t be in these figures. Along with the research on government funding to the hospitals dropping. Can’t blame it on the states anymore. Governments own figures. Although the apologists for the Liberal Party will dismiss it. Anyway where is Glen?

  8. I’ve noticed that the resident psephologists on this blog give give less credence to Morgan than the other major polls – why is this and why does it tend towards Labor more?

  9. I’m a little worried about the rise in Labor “think will win”. This rose by more than was warranted by the Galaxy 56-44, and so these results may be a little off. Still, I think a Labor primary of around 52%+ is likely, and very good indeed. If you look at OzPolitics, when Rudd took over, there was a very steep swing to Labor in Morgan that was not initially reflected in Newspoll, but Newspoll eventually caught up. The same thing may be going on now, with people’s anger at the election not being called going into Morgan, but not Newspoll at this stage.

  10. wow 894 people sure is a big poll isnt it who did they poll lets see they polled the Seats of Melbourne, Wills, Sydney, Gorton, Grayndler, Batman, and Blaxland to get this result…what is the Nat vote 1%…i dont see why we take Morgan seriously Newspoll had it 56-45 now Morgan has 61-39 now one is rogue and Morgan has the smaller sample size and more urban bias…

  11. Well, well,well… it looks like the election has just been posponed indefinitely. Have you ever seen a politician ” do himself slowly” (to paraphase), the way JWH has managed to do.

  12. It was easy to dismiss last week’s figure as some kind of aberration, but two weeks running? Either Morgan is doing something weird in terms of where in the country he is collecting data or this is a precursor for the AC Nielsen on Monday.

    For the most part, Morgan have tended to pick up trends a week or two before the other major polls. I wouldn’t expect Nielsen to report a Labor primary anywhere as high as 53.5, but we might see a turn for the worse for the government.

    But whatever the reality of the situation, Howard has got a VERY long way to go if he wants to win this election. I suspect, however, that the coalition more broadly have privately conceded defeat. Whether or not that would include Howard, I’m not sure.

  13. Glen,

    Those are the same arguments you trot out after each and every poll. Those points have been answered a thousand times. What are you going to say if the election confirms the polls?

  14. Lol, Howard should take the “advice” of you Labor leftards with a grain of salt. Drag it out for as long as possible then call a very long campaign. There’s a chance Labor’s hollow bubble will burst.

  15. John of Melbourne Says:
    October 5th, 2007 at 5:43 pm

    God Bless Costello!

    No, he’s not right at all, just trying to muddy the waters as usual. The clear fact remains in that he can’t continue to criticise States for PUBLIC hospital system if the feds are lagging in funding. The rest is irrelevant and typical Costello obfuscation.

  16. 17 A-C. Don’t know about you, but I’m wondering where they’ll get the time for a long election campaign. He’s backed himself into a corner. To quote Daffy Duck “shoot him now”.

  17. Glen @ 11

    That would be a good unintentional answer to my quest’on at 9 – any evidence for your claims re geographical bias?

  18. I will say nothing Paul k and those arent the same things i bring out at each poll except about undervaluing the Nat vote…if the Nats only got 2% of the vote in the election they’d lose many of their seats…

    I’d rather trust newspoll and galaxy than Morgan…Morgan is uber unreliable and uber biased…im not worried about this poll id be worried if Newspoll came out next week with 61-39 but until that happens i aint conceding nothing mate not until Green is punching up those numbers and recording a big swing to Labor will i do this…and ill probably end up if that does happen ranting and raving in German in subsequent posts which im sure you’ll find amusing lol.

  19. John of Melbourne, Costello is obfuscating, just as Howard and Hockey were over the report on AWAs. For a start, Costello is probably including the government’s private health insurance rebate in his overall figures, which is a huge WASTE of money.

    The core issue is the funding of public hospitals.

  20. I’ve just posted an updated table showing that the “long campaign” option is diminishing by the day. We’ve already had a very long de facto campaign, and it’s done the Libs no good at all.
    White it’s true that in a long campaign it’s possible that Rudd will make some massive stuffup, it’s equally possible (on current form, more possible) that Howard will. Labor stuffed up its tax policy in 2004, but so did Howard in 1987 in case anyone’s forgotten.

  21. You are forgetting my dear Noocat that the private health rebate releases pressure on overcrowded public hospitals and does contribute to total health spending…

    How should we believe Labor can fix the public hospitals when under all state and territory ALP Governments they failed to come close! Why should we believe that Labor can do any better than State Labor who created this mess! The States have GST funding that should provide funds for public hospitals and all the money they rake in from taxes like stamp duty and our public hospitals are terrible considering how wealthy a country we are…

  22. Included in Costello’s health figures is:

    The $50,000 boob jobs for mebers of the defence forces, (females only I presume)

    The 30% rebate on private health insurance which subsides the candle lit dinners and baby sitter you have after having your baby.
    The get aways to a “health farm” while you get yourself back together.
    The CD’s, runners shoes, sporting equipment etc.

    And the 20% tax rebate on face lifts, liposuction and such.

    Compare actual health spending and Abbott and Costello have seriously ripped off and underfunded the states.

  23. I’m getting a headache with all these polls. The Morgan thing sounds amazing and it will be a quiet night around the dinner table a Kirribilli tonight.
    But what I don’t understand is the story below on the seat of Sturt? Does the Sturt story confirm the Morgan story or does it show there are doubts about the accuracy of Morgan? Or is the Adelaide Advertiser telling porkies?
    God I can’t wait for the election.

  24. I can’t imagine Howard going past December 8th due to school holidays, etc. So at the most Howard has a couple of months to go. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. Time waits for no man or Prime Minister.

  25. Those Coalition backbenchers would be taking in these figures with some degree of alarm.

    The frontbenchers might be able to withdraw into their traditional realm of disbelief, but marginal seat backbenchers would have to be following events very closely as they unfold.

    They must be, by now, questioning the wisdom of relying on Howard’s so-called political wisdom and campaign effectivness. These figures continue to be diabolical for the Government and time is fast running out now.

    A long election campaign is not going to help Howard now. He is already 10 or 11 months into a “long” election campaign and the clock is ticking down fast for him now.

  26. My dear Glen, a rise in the use of private health facilities would best release pressure on overcrowded hospitals IF the federal government maintains their 50:50 spending split with the states. But the federal government has failed on this front and therefore wear a considerable part of the responsibility of any weaknesses in the system.

  27. OK, I have changed my mind – he can’t be this stupid.

    If he actually had his finger on the pulse then he would have called the election by now – he might lose but calling it would mean that he wouldn’t decimate the Lib team – some would survive and be around to rebuild over the next 3-6 or maybe 25 years.

    But obviously that’s not how he thinks.

    Clearly now he is only thinking of himself – not the other 80+ Libs in the Federal Parliament. This is about how long he can hang on with his snout in the trough – and a bit of wishful thinking that “Something will turn up”.

    Maybe something will turn up – perhaps even an engineered crisis that will delay the calling of the election?

    In any event we need to mobilise and march on Kirribilli house with a message – “Call the Election Now”.

  28. December 1 will be the poll date…

    Howard has a lot to gain by having another week or two in Parliament to hammer Rudd he gains nothing by calling a poll now…and it will be a marathon election campaign like John Major’s 1997 campaign that went for 6 or 7 weeks if memory serves me well…granted it didnt help him but the Tories were behind by 23% in the polls…

  29. Adam is 894 respondants a credible sample size for the electorate?

    I’m thinking say 120 of the 150 electorates were polled say with a margin of 15% and below. Now that would mean 7.5 people per electorate were polled.

  30. Abbott made a monumental stuff up today with his clear , succinct statement that the states are funding public hospitals better than the Feds.

    IMO this is the 3rd clear concise statement that Labor should base their campaign ads around.

    1. Howard in Parliament said “working families have never been better off”. manna from heaven for Labor ad men. can’t wait to see this ad. will go down a treat in mortgage and family belt land.

    2. Rudd stated clearly and concisely about Health. “the buck stops with me”. another great ad in the making. will go down very well in voter land.

    3. Abbott now clearly and concisely states the states are pulling their weight on public hospitals while the Feds are dragging their feet. another gift to the Labor ad men.

  31. HarryH

    Coalition ads:

    1. Mr. Rudd what is productivty, what are tax scales?

    2. Mr Howard = Coke -a -Cola the real thing! Mr. Rudd = Pepsi sorry RC Cola.

  32. It still seems all too good to be true for me, but I’m a natural ALP pessimist. However, if the Howard comeback was going to happen, surely Rudd’s lead shouldn’t be getting bigger in early October?

  33. Adam

    The libs are making stuff ups daily on health, the environment, housing affordability, Work Choices and the community.

    Their big selling point is experience, we don’t need any more of this “experience”, I have had enough of this “experience”.

  34. Roger, I agree with you. I think that Howard has stopped caring about the prospect of a very large defeat. If he holds on for another parliamentary sitting, it will only be for the purpose of stitching up deals and putting in legislation that makes the first term of a Rudd government just that much harder.

    I also think that Bushfire Bill’s theory about why Howard is waiting might be bang on the money:

    “What we are seeing is one of the biggest heists in Australian history, right in front of our noses.”

    If BB is right, then Howard is virtually a criminal.

  35. [ Howard has a lot to gain by having another week or two in Parliament to hammer Rudd ]

    Because as we all know the nation watches Parliament question time religiously and what’s said in Parliament decides every election. Dream on.

  36. Re-posted from the “Sturt” thread…

    “Headed in the right direction”

    Could be heading there faster.

    I know I’ve told this story before, but for those who haven’t read by exciting tale…

    After a similar discussion on what “Heading in the right direction” meant, I rang up Morgan, asked for him personally and was put on straightaway. He told me it was his own idea… no quantitative data to back it up, just an educated hunch.

    Morgan says 21% of all voters say the country is HITRD. 21% of all voters = 34% of Labor voters based on a 61% 2PP.

    Now, as the HITRD figure is 49.5% overall, the Coalition figure for HITRD maxes out at (.295 x 100)/39 = 76% of oalition voters believe the country is HITRD. But this means that 24% of coalition voters believe the country is NOT HITRD. This is the Coalition “soft” vote.

    To use Morgan’s phrasing, “I believe that THESE voters are the key to the election.”

  37. The deal on public hospitals was States 50% – Federal 50% it does not matter how Costello spins it, he has not lived up to his end of the deal.

    If he chooses to fund Private Hospitals thats OK, but stick to the 50% otherwise he is riping off the States. (Again).

  38. the last sitting got a lot of coverage Paul so its reasonable to assume a sitting in October will because of the nearness of the election.

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