Advertiser Sturt poll

After last week’s surprising poll from Boothby, today’s Adelaide Advertiser brings us a survey of 622 voters from Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt which is more in line with market expectations. It shows Pyne with a two-party lead of 52-48, pointing to a swing of around 5 per cent. Pyne is given a primary vote lead over Labor candidate Mia Handshin of 44 per cent to 35 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

144 comments on “Advertiser Sturt poll”

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  3. The Advertiser is Rupert’s personal little joke on the people of Adelaide. It’s usually around the bottom 2 or 3 of the News Corp stable in terms of – quality, accuracy, intellect, facts or any other measure.

    The really interesting thing is that the locals have been reading it for over 30 years but I doubt that any one of them could tell you what the content was today. The thing is a rag.

    If they say that Pyne is winning in his seat then that would mean he will be lucky to get his deposit back.

    The only reason it exists is to keep the competition at bay – it’s mostly irrelevant.

  4. The Advertiser isn’t exactly god’s gift to brilliant journalism, but I have to say I will eat my hat if they don’t back Rudd when it comes to the election. Plenty of signs recently that they are fed up with Howard at the ’tiser.

  5. I’ll believe that when I see it, Matthew. But I guess we have one thing to be thankful for – we no longer have to put up with The News. It wasn’t called Murdoch’s Gutter Rag for nothing 😀

  6. I don’t know what happened to my post but here goes again.

    Yo ho ho of course!

    I would just like a table in which one column lists all the industry groups and then in the subsequent columns the median award agreements, colective agreements and AWA’s so that way a proper comparison can be made.

  7. OK Chinster, so if the ’tiser back Rudd, you know where you heard it first ! Even that Kenny fellow has been much more positive about Labor recently.

  8. John of Melbourne

    the Journal of Australian Political Economy (www.jape.org) devoted an entire issue to Workchoices prior to the introduction of the fairness test. Its good reading.

  9. I agree, John. I want to see it in black and white, not as a press release put out by Hockey, spoken by Princess Fiona, but as an actual document full of numbers and DETAIL.

  10. RE
    43
    Thommo Says:
    October 5th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
    I think Rudd is lucky hes debating Howard and not Costello.

    NO WAY
    I heard Costello on local Brisbane ABC with being interviewed by the local Murdoch Blow up doll who is married to the editor of the Courier mail So hardly a hard setting and I thought he was poor. Even Madonna King had him all tricked up about Inflation and the Min Wage level. He did not know it. Of course King could have shot back— but you had ago at ST kev for Not knowing the top marginal rate which would be of concern to most Australians NOT– All Costello could say it has gone up— of course again KING could have said but your gov opposed all increases that the dreaded unions submitted.
    I thought all through the interview that Costello is good at red facing in Parliment where the hacks in the back bench and the total hacks in the gallery are easliy tickled up. Costello would come up very poorly the more exposure beyond the Keating lite boundaries he currently operates in.

  12. The news.com.au story is very short on detail…

    I think comparing average wages is very unfair. The highest paid workers are always on individual contracts. The real question is how being forcibly changed from an award to an AWA affects you…

  13. Thanks Yo ho ho do you know which issue it is?

    The Chinster I think the majority of the population are with you and I in wanting to see a table and I think it should be prepared by a neutral body and it should be printed before the election so that the populus can make an informed choice.

  14. Sturt doesn’t have Nicole Cornes. Enough said.

    Actually, I’m surprised Labor’s lead isn’t bigger here. The national swing at the moment is what, 7-8%? Possum has it at 10.24%, but I think most would believe that is a bit too unrealistic. Still, never know, we are living in strange times.

    Anyway, Sturt is still defying the national swing by a few percent. Which could mean one of two things. First, that Pyne has a strong personal vote – highly possible, he is a minister after all. But then again, from what I’ve gathered, Mia has a strong personal vote as well. She’s getting quite a bit of publicity (more then my ALP candiate candiate anyway)

    Second… it could be possible that SA isn’t swinging as hard as the other states. Will be interesting to see the next poll from the tiser – as little credibility as it has, it’s all we’ve got to go by.

    Not that it really matters, Labor only needs a few percent to take three seats. It won’t take Boothby. The ’tiser was at it again yesterday, devoting a page or two to discussing why Cornes is refusing to take interviews. It’s a tag that’s sticking, along with the other labels she has stuck on her.

  17. And when the Morgan poll arrived
    It was seen that once again that support for the rodent had dived.
    The bloggers nodded their heads in approval
    Portending the rodent’s imminent removal.
    Roses are red, violets are blue
    Some poems rhyme, but this one doesn’t.

  19. The whole soft Labor vote thing is a ridiculous attempt to make something out of nothing. What the hell does “Is the country moving in the right direction mean ?” I’d probably answer yes to this question, and I’d never ever vote Liberal ! So I guess I must be a soft Labor voter. Roy says so.

  20. Or just make the WHOLE report available – unedited – online, for us all to see and decide for ourselves. Somehow I don’t think that’s happening any time soon. We’re apparently supposed to just believe it’s true because Princess Fiona is telling us so.

  22. I suspect that a lot of dyed-in-the-wool Labor voters like me would answer yes to that question because we can see that the country is on the verge of voting this Government out! It’s a stupid concept anyway, but if you look at how it’s worded (especially the heading in the wrong direction bit) it makes the question(s) doubly stupid.

  23. Morgan should ask, “do you believe the present Government has done a good job” then you’ll know who is a soft Labor voter.

  28. Just wondering how much pressure these very high poll numbers will take. Dry sand can take a lot of weight but add a little water and watch its strength vanish. There’s not likely to be a Tampa but the fight is likely to get very nasty in the campaign and I reckon the Government’s dirt strategy has yet to kick in in earnest. These guys will not go out with a whimper. This surely presents a risk to the “soft” labor vote identified by Morgan, even if it is overstated or ambiguous.

  29. I was polled by another organisation a few weeks ago and was asked the ‘is the country heading in the right direction” I answered no and I am a Labor voter – I answered no because John Howard and the Libs are still in power. I would only answer yes to that once the Kevster was voted in……but as Post 116 says some Labor voters may answer yes ’cause it seems the Rodent is about to be ousted from his rathole (fingers crossed). It is all in how one interprets the question. I reckon the question is too ambiguous and should be ditched. How can they extrapolate the answer as someone being a “soft” labor voter – what a croc.

  30. Well spotted Dr. Good. Lets regugitate 18 month old figures and add a bit of fairness fluff.

    Desparate stuff from Hockey.

  31. back down a bit ladies and gentlemen 🙂

    someone in ealrier comments critisized the Tiser’s sample size of 622 when polling the local seat of Sturt alone.
    Look at the sample size of the Morgan’s poll : 894, nation wide.
    I would say the Tiser’s poll is far more accurate, like it or not.

    However, I must admit that I’m very pleased with the Morgan’s poll result 🙂
    Howard has to go! Anyone but Howard.

  32. You could equally answer “Yes” to the “headed in the right direction” question if you are a hard-core ALP supporter on the issue of WorkChoices but agree broadly with economic and social issues which the Government and Labor agree. In this sense you would say the country is headed in the right direction – yes, on most things, except IR.

  33. Only 8.7% on AWAs in all this time? 11 years? Gee, they must be popular.

    The basic fallacy is that Hockey is suggesting you can double your salary just by being on an AWA. This was the actual scenario he was spruiking the other day when he said he’d be asking Howard to pay him 200% if he went over to an AWA as a minister.

    POTENTIAL BOSS: Well, come in. Sit down. How much do you think we should be paying you?

    POTENTIAL EMPLOYEE: Well, I’m earning $500 now on a CA, so I reckon a grand oughta be enough on this AWA you’re offering me.

    POTENTIAL BOSS: Next.

  34. The majority of people romanticise their nation and national ideas (thus the defaults of Australia is the greatest/most beautiful etc. country in the world). The majority of Australians romanticise the idea of Australia – great at sport! mateship! fair go! In an abstract sense, a majority of people are always going to think that overall, their nation is broadly heading in the rights direction, and this cannot be extended to a partisan political reading. I agree that it is a bit silly, but no doubt it gives Morgan deniability is his figures are off.

  36. Frank Frederic, it doesn’t matter whether it’s a poll in a single seat or nationally – the MOE is almost the same. The sample size needs to be at least 10% of the total population for MOE adjustments to matter very much at all. The ‘Tiser poll has an MOE of 4%.

  38. Bushfire

    Agree, who would believe you can double your wage by being on a AWA, they have not done their credibility any good by releasing such a silly statement.

    If Howard and Hockey want to stand by this why not make it part of their election platform.

    “We gaurantee that any worker that signs an AWA will have their salary doubled if we are re-elected.”

  40. “Headed in the right direction”

    Could be heading there faster.

    I know I’ve told this story before, but for those who haven’t read by exciting tale…

    After a similar discussion on what “Heading in the right direction” meant, I rang up Morgan, asked for him personally and was put on straightaway. He told me it was his own idea… no quantitative data to back it up, just an educated hunch.

    Morgan says 21% of all voters say the country is HITRD. 21% of all voters = 34% of Labor voters based on a 61% 2PP.

    Now, as the HITRD figure is 49.5% overall, the Coalition figure for HITRD maxes out at (.295 x 100)/39 = 76% of oalition voters believe the country is HITRD. But this means that 24% of coalition voters believe the country is NOT HITRD. This is the Coalition “soft” vote.

    To use Morgan’s phrasing, “I believe that THESE voters are the key to the election.”

  41. I’ve lived in Sturt most of my life and never thought it could change hands, but the northward redistribution last time and the swing this time will make it close. I still think Pyne will hold on, because I still believe there will be at least some “narrowing”.

    There seem to be a lot of us Sturt residents here! Also there seems to be generally a lot of SA news here.

    I was riding home from the shops one Saturday and happened to come upon one of Mia’s street meetings. Vini (member for Norwood) has them reguarly, not just when she or her fed colleagues are hoping to get elected.

    There weren’t many others there (mostly helpers) so I got to talk to Mia. She doesn’t have the experience of older people, but she’d be a good MP.

    While I’m hoping ALP win strongly this time, I have plenty of problems with state Labor, and had there been more time at that meeting, I would have had some harsher questions for Vini, beginning with the tram to nowhere.

  42. Reply 1. Judy says ‘She’ll be a credit to the Labour Party if she gets up’.

    Judy, it’s more important for an MP to be a credit to the Parliament and Australia if she is elected. This self-interested thinking is too common in Australian politics.

  43. Reply 1. Judy says ‘She’ll be a credit to the Labour Party if she gets up’.

    Judy, it’s more important for an MP to be a credit to the Parliament and Australia if she is elected. This self-interested thinking is common in Australian politics.

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