Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.
UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.
Glen, get off that moral high ground mate. You lost rights there a long way back.
I find it curious that right wingers like Glen take attacks on their favorite leaders as personal attacks. They treat Howard and Bush like the Communists did Stalin or the North Koreans treat their Dear Leader. Any attack on the leader is a personal attack on them. Why do they copy the Communists whom they claim to hate?
Boll im sorry but i dont hear nostro or cedric or steven say Rudd should commit suicide…unlike your friend Paul k….
There is a difference between fair political attacks and sick disgusting ones as done by the insensitive Paul k…
I for one am glad that the Right does not stoop to such lows Boll…
Dear, dear, dear. Glen is left alone, the sole flag bearer for the Right. What a pitiful state of affairs. And the economy is going so well! The
ECONOMY!! Can the election possibly be about anything else?!!!
Where is Stephen Kaye? Where is Nostradamus? Have they left the bunker with promises of total support then fled to Switzerland?
Poor Glen. Poor, poor Glen…
Grow up Glen. You’re the only one who took the post seriously. So runaway and call the Terrorist Hotline now that you’ve discovered a security threat on the PM.
Albert F
i’ll bite too
boringly facile and contemptibly stupid?
Glen #240.
A choice between arsenic, stricknen, cyanide, acid and dioxin?
Howard won’t be challenged. Remember he is commissioned as the PM. The slightest hint of a challenge and he will call the election.
The election won’t be anything near 60-40 or 59-41. People will return to the government if it looks like a rout. Australians generally don’t leave political wastelands after an election.
For example take the 1996 election, the ALP were still left with 49 seats in the reps and were able to rebuild quickly. The ALP were even left with 36 lower house seats after the 1975 election, enough to survive and plan.
Major parties are sometimes reduced by 50%-70% but are always left with enough to rebuild. The same will apply to the Liberals. The Nationals are another matter, changing demographics are killing them.
No Snakeboy they are off trying to get General Wenck to come to the rescue…no seriously i have no idea perhaps it is because everytime they post they get a verbal bashing as i often do…
Looks like im left to hold the fort ‘bunker’ or what’s left of it.
Regarding states – swing in WA is around 5-6%. Not big compared to Qld & Vic which are 10+%+. But it means seats will go in WA – Kalgoorlie maybe. SA is totally gone for the Libs – Labor have stopped spending money in SA.
Glen at 228 – good post. Although I do not agree with a lot of your posts, this one is somewhat better than some of the childish sniping by others.
Tom.
I agree with Glen on the potential for a leadership change to increase due to media pressure. It is impossible to know for sure whether Howard will step down, but it is now going to become very hard for him to move forward and expect positive publicity when he has a whole heap of prominent political commentators calling for his scalp. His colleagues will have to take this into account when considering the question of who is best to lead them to the election.
In particular, I think that the chances of Howard stepping down went up dramatically since Janet Albrechtsen’s article today.
If Howard does intend to stay, then I think he needs to call the election immediately and state his plans for his future very clearly. No more of this vague “I will stay as long as the party wants me” rubbish that we have been hearing for years now. Calling the election will be a circuit breaker, not in terms of the polling, but in getting the media off his back with respect to the leadership issue.
I wonder if Howard occasionally stops and reflects on how he got himself into such a mess. I personally think that Howard’s greatest shortcoming is a lack of foresight. Especially in the last few years, he spends most of his time in damage control mode rather than genuinely planning for future possibilities, not just in the policy area, such as the needs of the nation, but also in terms of his own political situation. He has ALWAYS lacked vision.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/09/07/1188783466709.html
Downer is a complete joke and as many say a buffon. If, if he can speak fench the only times I could see him using it is to ask where the teenis courts are and how he hates visiting busted arse countries.
The Chaser team should put him to the test and throw some choice insults his way in french, probably get the silly smile and the bobbing head reaction.
What’s wrong with the Libs losing two leaders in a couple of weeks? It is a just desert for eleven wasted years.
Julie in replay to what Kevin Rudds victory song should be i think it should be “Working Class Man” Jimmy Barnes,
Because the Working class man will be the winner by Christmas time
Julie @ 212
Don’t discount the Crows just yet. Port supporter no doubt? Please don’t align Downer becoming PM to the Crows winning the flag. I think that is one of the very few things I would take offence to.
All this talk of leadership speculation, amazing how much influence one blunt column can have. Bandwagon jumpers the lot of you…
Yeah because he’ll be out of a job thanks to the return of unfair dismissals and will have more time at home with the kids…
What a winner they’ll be on…i can get you the moment they put in unfair dismissals unemployment will rise…maybe that’s Labor’s plans at keeping interest rates low…making unemployment higher….
Anyone who thinks Albrechtsen’s opinion is significant is just navel gazing. How many people read her? Just you guys. Try reading the HeraldSun & Telegraph. In last 2 days HeraldSun has had very negative front page headlines re APEC. (expense & Chaser). Which just confirms public opinion – Howard won’t get any lift rom this.
Another way to look at it is that the time in opposition has cost the ALP two leaders and I don’t hear anyone crying about that.
Simon, removing the GST off houses? No way, that would make it easier for people to own their own homes. Switching to All Tip would not make an ounce of difference. He has supported each and every one of Howards policies lock and stock? They change leadership now, they will get killed.
Howard and Costello should be remembered for the legacy of their tax reform (GST). A legacy where the best way for the younger generation to get to own their own home is for the older generation to kick the bucket.
[ Bandwagon jumpers the lot of you… ]
It’s all over the news. It’s not just one column. So of coarse people are going to discuss it on a blog if they see it on TV, etc. Are they just supposed to ignore what everyone else is talking about in the media?
Whether Howard resigns or not it’s a big story because APEC was supposed to be a huge positive for Howard and instead he’s having to try to explain to Putin what all the strange questions are about a leadership challenge. Did you see the news conference with Howard and Putin? It was obviously embarassing for the PM.
i dont think albrechtsens actual opinion counts (I have NEVER read any of her pieces before today), its the symbolism of even the most die-hard Howard-lovers giving up that is significant
i also think that if Howard stays on, he is going to be tainted by the “you didnt even go when your media friends told you” tag. How stubborn does that look?? either way, its a very messy way to start an election campaign
Andrew – significant to who? The 99% of people who don’t read her?
The only thing Costello has ever wanted is to be PM. Howard has pushed his welcome to the limit so much that he has now desroyed his legacy as a savvy, hands on operator.
All he can do now is handball a “turd” to Costello and say, “Here, polish that and you win Government.”
The real anger in the Liberal Party must be pointed toward the rat bags who allowed Howard to earn the right to “Go out on his own terms”.
Read the polls and weep Libs.
Maxine in to $2.10 (against $1.65) at Centrebet. I think this is the best odds we’ve seen so far.
Austrian footy half-time.
David Charles @ 221
fascism: A government system with strong centralised power, permitting no opposition or criticism, controlling affairs of the nation while emphasizing an aggressive nationalism.
fascist: Anyone with extreme right-wing views esp. with regard to race.
Macquarie dictionary page 631. left hand side. half way up.
Hyperbole? Give me a break…. if they’re not there yet they’re certainly trying.
“Anyone who thinks Albrechtsen’s opinion is significant is just navel gazing. ”
I agree. It’s not that many people actually read Albrechtsen’s articles – and frankly, they are often on the loopy side, so why would you bother – but when one of the most loyal supporters of Howard turns around and knifes him, it can have a huge knock-on effect for other commentators in shaping the overall media narrative.
And this has already stepped up a notch today with commercial TV news bulletins referring to Howard on “shaky ground” and talk radio hosts bringing up the issue about whether Howard should step down. It will probably be all over the papers tomorrow morning too.
Albrechsten is in the same category of Akermann and Alan Jones. Theyre blatant pandering to one side of politics instantly turns off anyone but the most rusted on RW supporter.
It’s the Matt Prices of the media that are readable, and carry more influence. No doubt he has his own preconceptions, but his ‘bash the lot of them’ writing style appeals to all. If someone like Price clearly intimates at a leadership spill, then its likely to be on. Hope not, but if he bolts, history books will read “Howard the Coward”. People want to vote Howard out personally, they will punish them more if he bails.
Matt Price? Now doesn’t he write in a paper read by about 5% of the population? Get some perspective here people.
But I do agree that if Howard decides to cut and run the voters will punish the Libs.
#
“277
Winston Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 9:51 pm
Matt Price? Now doesn’t he write in a paper read by about 5% of the population? Get some perspective here people.”
His online blog is very popular.Over a period of time if you look at the number of responses he leaves the other journo’s for dead.
He is not a fan of Mr Rudd,but on the whole he is reasonably non biased.
At least he takes and makes the effort to respond to the bloggers,even if only to disagree.
Remember, no one has been punished for anything, yet!
Downer vs Rudd (before or after election) is a psycho-analyst’s dream. Downer stalks Rudd like a child who had the school captainship taken from him by the brighter spark.
Possum and Piping S: reports of the Nats demise will forever be premature. Australia is no urban conurbation – never will be according to the maps in my house. They retain a healthy branch structure that either of the ‘majors’ would die for.
People see the ONP phenomenon as sign of the softness of the Nat’s vote. Tosh. It was a ram-raid. That after so many years up the Libs’ fundament, the Nats still hold a swag of seats, is testament to their barnacle status.
Whether Howard resigns or not the fact that the question is being asked by his supporters so close to an election during APEC is significant. It shows how much the government has lost control of events. Things are spinning out of their control and even the government’s own supporters are now part of the problem for them.
Matt Price has a regular column in the GG as well as the Daily Telegraph. Not encompassing, I was referring to his writing style. How many people read albrechsten?
If McKew’s odds had shortened, you can ‘bet’ it is on speculation that Howard will do a runner – more than Labor’s chances in the seat if, as is more likely, Howard stays.
Time to buy the popcorn and wait for The Rodent’s concession speech. How sweet it will be.
Wonder who will be on Lateline…we had Beazley last night how about Hewson another failed leader….what happened to Tony Jones has Labor given him a safe seat or something lol!
Maybe Bill Hayden could make a Lateline appearance. What does happen to GGs when they retire?　
Max @ 263,
“Don’t discount the Crows just yet. Port supporter no doubt? Please don’t align Downer becoming PM to the Crows winning the flag. I think that is one of the very few things I would take offence to.
All this talk of leadership speculation, amazing how much influence one blunt column can have. Bandwagon jumpers the lot of you…”
No, sorry Max ;-). Don’t support either side. Just making note of the fact that Adelaide come in lower on the ladder as opposed to Port so reckoned their chances were less. Actually, while I live in NSW, I am a Victorian at heart (and my team is still in the game ;-D).
You have to admit though, that Downer isn’t going to get the Libs any increase in their polling results
Snakeboy said
Not yet. Things look dark, but Howard will fight to the bitter end. He will go out fighting, so keep that champagne on ice.
There is no assertion that columnists will influence election results, or evidence to back it up.
However, conservative commentators begging for a leadership change sounds like a desperate attempt to save the sinking ship. More sober writers asserting a leadership change with confidence smells like a leak. Just musing, which is essentially all anyone can do.
[Matt Price? Now doesn’t he write in a paper read by about 5% of the population? Get some perspective here people.]
Matt Price has articles in the Sunday News Ltd tabloids as well, which is probably more influential / informative than all the stuff he writes for The Oz.
[If McKew’s odds had shortened, you can ‘bet’ it is on speculation that Howard will do a runner – more than Labor’s chances in the seat if, as is more likely, Howard stays.]
Yeah, exactly what I was thinking. So it will probably move back out if it is sure he stays.
I can’t wait for The Australian, there’s going to be some very interesting articles by Kelly and Shanahan. The editorial as well is going to be something.
Hang on, wouldn’t the states have to agree to a change in the GST rate? The Libs couldn’t guarantee a reduction in the GST.
[Maybe Bill Hayden could make a Lateline appearance. What does happen to GGs when they retire?]
Maybe Howard and Costello will do a reverse Hayden / Hawke. Howard could call the election, and resign on the same day. 😛
TofK the only thing bad to come out of all this media speculation about Howard’s future is doing one thing and one thing only focusing on Howard and his leadership not on any policy benefits for the Government not on any failures or weaknesses of the Opposition…it fits the narrative of a sinking ship of an old and tired Government and the media will continue to break open the hole in the side of the Titanic even more if it can why??? because its news and it will sell papers and get people watching the tele the fact is all this leadership crap is distracting Howard from getting any benefit from APEC…a few concerted weeks of this from the media and Howard will call a snap poll in such a poor position or resign in favour of Costello its a catch 22 and there is no other way of describing it.
[Hang on, wouldn’t the states have to agree to a change in the GST rate? The Libs couldn’t guarantee a reduction in the GST.]
In theory yes, because it is an agreement with the states.
HOWEVER, in practice the GST is federal legislation, so the feds could just repeal the current legislation and replace it with new legislation, they don’t need the agreement of the states to do that.
The Crosby / Textor report said Howard should pick fights with the states, proposing to unlaterally cut the GST would be the mother of all fights. The states would have to defend not cutting a tax, what would the ALP do? Support or oppose.
I know it sounds crazy, but surely if Howard thinks he is going to lose he will do ANYTHING.
A few weeks on this blog there was great indignation from the left about Kevin Rudd being referred to Kruddy etc. and there was a lot high moral ground being taken about the right belittling Labor politicians.
Now there are lots of references to Dolly Downer and Captain Smirk etc.
The belittling seems to have ceased from the right, for a bit of balance can we have the childish bleats and belittling cease from the left as well.
[because its news and it will sell papers and get people watching the tele the fact is all this leadership crap is distracting Howard from getting any benefit from APEC…]
It’s Howard’s fault, he doesn’t have any policies to talk about, so the media have started talking about him instead. If the government had a plan for the future there wouldn’t be this leadership speculation.
It’s like the government had an essay to write for a month, but they are trying to write it the night before.
Thanks for the data ifonly (213).
So what we can take out of this is that the normal range of primary vote fluctuation from this point in the electoral cycle for the ALP is at best a gain of 5%, and at worst, a loss of 6%.
Converting these primary %’s to 2PP %’s by applying the same proportional increase in the ALP’s vote in the latest Morgan poll (x1.224; 49 x 1.224=60) we get the following range:
Best case: gain 6.1%
Worst case: lose 7.3%
Let’s be conservative and say Labor’s 2PP is 58% and not 59% or 60%. And let’s also be pessimistic assume Rudd will have a bad campaign and lose 6%. That still leaves Labor on 52-48%; enough to win providing the swing is reasonably distributed.
But does anyone seriously think Rudd will have a bad campaign and lose that much vote share?
Please show me some evidence that he will have a bad campaign.
On his past and recent form in the media spotlight you’d have to say he will outperform Howard in the campaign, plus momentum and public appeal is with him.
So I would say at worst Rudd could only lose 2-3%, which would still put Labor in a crushing victory position of 55/56-45/44% 2PP.
My own view is that he’ll have a good campaign and retain most of the lead he currently has in the polls.
I acknowledge though the rebound effect; some people switching to avoid a landslide victory. But I only think this will count for 2-3% as the it’s time for change mood is a stronger factor in my view.