Morgan: 60-40

Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.

UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

405 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. William, my seat has the Nationals running a candidate for the first time.
    Whereas Morgan does not differentiate between the 2 Coalition partners simply lumping them as the “Coalition”.
    In such a seat as mine can we assume that there will be no preference flow of the lesser Coalition partner [probably the Nats in this case] AWAY from the other [Libs.]?
    That is, there will be nil leakage to the ALP in such a case?

  2. This confirms the last Newspoll of Labor leading 59-41 2PP.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; this wont be a close election – it will be a Ruddslide of biblical proportions.

    Howard staying the course wont work as too many swingers have already made up their mind that it’s time for change and are no longer listening to Howard. Changing leaders wont work for the Libs either because the replacement, Costello, is an electoral negative.

    I also think the theory of Labor’s lead narrowing during the formal campaign is also unfounded because if anything, Rudd is clearly the better performer in the media and is preferred by more people than Howard or Costello. So it’s more likely that he’ll win the campaign and if anything, extend his lead.

  3. Morgan says:

    If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a massive landslide. However, the Federal election will be much closer than shown by the latest Morgan Poll.


  4. Rogue

    Reason 1: The Liberal Party has a larger base of political support than 34.5%

    Reason 2: The Nationals polled 6% in the last election and yet Morgan has them on 1.5% go figure

    While i accept the Coalition is far behind this poll is just bullcrap!

  5. Denial stunkrat – just too hard to believe. If the last 9 months of polling has caused one to wonder about a landslide election then God himself appearing and telling you it will be a landslide isn’t going to help.

    But polling companies and the media have to have a ‘close’ election … or else all that money spent on pretty graphics goes to waste.

  6. [While i accept the Coalition is far behind this poll is just bullcrap!]

    What’s the figures then? If you say anything less than 55/45 you’ll be laughed at.

    55 means Labor will win about 95 seats, which is a thumping.

  7. Got any evidence for reason 1 Glen?

    And we know the Lib / Nat coalition polling issue, it has been canvassed many times before and if you hope for the primary to be understated by 4% because of this you should go buy a lotto ticket.

  8. No matter what he margin of win/loss, whether narrow or landslide, the Howard era is drawing to a close and no government in the future will attempt another Work Choices and will think twice about sending our troops to far off lands. Whether Rudd squanders a golden opportunity to cement Labor into a position of power or not, Australia is about to change for good and there is no going back.

  9. Why will the actual Election be closer than the polls?

    Its all relative, but even if the ALP sustains a national 2PP of 60:40 there is the issue of the gerrymander that has been built up over subsequent Federal Elections by virtue of the Liberals marginal seat campaigning, porkbarrelling and criminal postal and printing allowances to sitting members.

    To actually win Government in its own right the ALP I believe from previous discussions has to achieve 51.4% of the TPP in a straight national swing.

    However, the ALP and Unions have been working quite hard on a targeted marginal seat campaign and the number of “marginal seats” to defend is blowing out every day for the Coalition. So whose to say the ALP might actually reverse the trend and actually take more seats from the 2004 pendulum than its national 2PP vote?

    What is interesting is the question of who is most likely to lead the Libs after the Election? With a 60:40 even Costello’s seat is in doubt. Whom does that leave amongst the rest?

    A likely Lib leader pendulum would be great.

  10. Jasmine the last time the Liberal Party at an election got anywhere near 34% was 1998 (Just an anti-GST vote) and before that 1983-1990

    In 1996 Howard got 38.7% in 2001 Howard got 37.1% and in 2004 Howard got 40% thus 34% is between 6% and 3% lower than in previous elections…

    How can you think that a poll that has the Nats on 1.5% is credible are you crazy!

  11. Who will win the 2007 Australian Federal Election?





    Sporting Bet – 🙂

    So maybe the coalitions support is lower, only 33.74%

  12. I think the sample is a little on the left here. The Coalition numbers are made up of both (with the nats in brackets). The nats have consistantly got 2.5-3% for quite a while and now they have dropped to 1.5%.

    The Greens have been polling 6.5%-7% have suddenly jumped to 9%.

    I suspect that Morgan do some weighting when they produce these numbers. Eg if they end up with 40% men they will increase their vote and decrease the women’s vote so they are equivalent to 50/50.

    They interview 915 people but I suspect 9% doesn’t mean 81 people said they would vote green. They might only get 40 people in country areas and weight their selections accordingly. I suspect they did a country area and hit Nimbin or somewhere increasing the green vote and dropping Nats.

    I am not saying this poll is insignificant but such a sudden change in two minor parties seems unusual and suggests it may not be sustained.

  13. Stop fishing in the RW pond, there is only one fish left, and its got alot of hook marks.
    Back to reality, this poll backs up newspoll as a true figure on the weekend, not the contrast that was between Galaxy and Morgan last week.
    Still, complacency is poison. The electoral changes will disenfranchise hundreds of thousands, if anyone you know isn’t enrolled, get them a form! Labor never turns away campaign volunteers either :).

  14. [ is a poll that has the National Party on 1.5% credible? ]

    Is a Prime Minister who thinks Work Choices will win him votes credible?

  15. Glen, people have explained how that Nat/Liberal split works. It’s be done multiple times, in language simple enough that even you can understand.

  16. A few months back someone was making an analogy between the coalition government and Hitler’s last days in his Berlin bunker and his delusional reliance upon phantom armies materialising out of thin air coming to save Berlin. Over the past year we have had a succession of pundits and the coalition brains trust (surely an oxymoron) touting the following as causes for the imminent turnaround that received wisdom knew had to be just around the corner:honeymoon over, budget bounce, Rudd stumble, APEC, people coming to their senses.
    I think the polls of the last fortnight allow us to take that bunker analogy to the next stage. There must have come a moment in late April 1945 when Hitler realised it was all over and that his hope and belief in relief was in vain, when reality came rushing in overwhelming those delusions. That moment has arrived for the coalition. It is now dawning on them that there is no phantom army, no escape, no redemption, no TAMPA to reverse the tide. As somebody else said, what they face is a wipeout of biblical proportions.

  17. “Asanque and to the rest of the Rudd huggers…is a poll that has the National Party on 1.5% credible?”

    With Mark Vaille as leader – Yes 😉

  18. Oh Glen give it up please…

    I have no doubt of the collapsing Nationals vote, although not to that extent of course. Why do you think they’re running on a joint ticket for the Senate in Queensland at this election? Certainly not because they’re confident their vote is high enough to get a Senator elected on their own.

    Still, your desperate attempts to paint this poll as rogue take the cake. Is it really that important to you? You’ve said it’s rogue… you hardly need to stand around arguing about it.

    Calling us “Rudd huggers” is also lame.

  19. Stunkrat that might put the Nats between 3-4% but it sure as hell doesnt explain why Morgan has the Nats on 1.5% when they poll 6% nationally in elections…The Nats are credible they and the Liberals are the only parties who actually care about the Bush you can bet your bottom dollar if Rudd gets in he’ll snub the Bush like every Labor Prime Minister has done…

  20. Glen, when I posted earlier in the week that two elderly rusted on conservatives had told me that they would vote for a conservative candidate in a conservative Rudd government, thus changing from lifetime Liberal voting you accused me of being a liar.

    On these figures it would seem that many people who have never voted ALP federally are strongly considering doing so.

    At the 2010 election, Eden Monaro will be a safe ALP seat.

  21. Some things that will work against Costello and Turnbull if they are they are daft enough to take the poisoned chalice.
    Most people don`t realise that the driving force behind serfchoices and founder of HR Niccholls society was Captain Smirk himself.He conned Howard into thinking it was nesessary reform,plonker!
    Malcolm “feecatcher” Turnbull ex Goldman Sachs, old mate of Rodney Adler and “Project Firelight” partner, and the sale of F.I.A. to the terminally sick H.I.H. could come back and bite him on the bum in a dirty campaign
    They will stick with Howard, unless he or Janet decides to pull the pin to ensure people like me miss out on a gloatfest on election night.

  22. Re (5)’

    “This confirms the last Newspoll of Labor leading 59-41 2PP.
    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; this wont be a close election – it will be a Ruddslide of biblical proportions.”

    Therefore, it is time to think what might be an appropriate campaign song for Rudd. I put my vote in for A Long Way To The Top (which talks about seeking the Holy Grail). This was used very effectively by one of the television stations in a recent year for their advertising of the broadcast of the AFL finals series :). Anyone else with a different idea?

  23. Given the small sample you’d have to be inclided to combine this poll with the previous one and say morgan has the ALP at around 57 to 57.5. The recent Newspoll would fit in with this. This is a huge 2pp vote this close to an election.

    Something to has break next week. Either Howard calls the election to change the tempo or resigns.

    I think Howard will take the cowards way out. Costello as a new leader would seal defeat but may stop a landslide and enable them to live to fight the next election.

  24. Stunkrat,

    Morgan is assuming people will change the reasons behind the vote they told Morgan pollsters once the election is called. I don’t know where he gets that assumption (this is the first federal election I will have participated in). It is possible that historically, this has been so, that margins have narrowed when the election is officially called, but this election just doesn’t have that feeling to me. Like another poster, the margins I think will be the same or even greater.

  25. I’m saving Glen’s desperate rationalisations to regurgitate to him after the election. It’s clear Rudd will win and win big. The tories just can’t bring themselves to accept it. All I ask is that Glen (and others) accept the result with dignity and respect.

  26. Re (11)

    ” Whether Rudd squanders a golden opportunity to cement Labor into a position of power or not, Australia is about to change for good and there is no going back. ”

    Can you see the rainbow on the horizon? 60% of the voters can :):)

  27. Glen: The only question you need to ask, is which stage of the cycle you are at?

    Is it stage 1 – denial (Shanahan)
    stage 2 – bargaining (Albrechtsen)
    stage 3 – depression
    or stage 4 – acceptance (Bolt)

    Is the Morgan poll a good indicator of the election? I doubt it will be 60%/40%, but its another good indicator of the deserved annihilation of the Howard government under his insipid leadership.

  28. “In 1996 Howard got 38.7% in 2001 Howard got 37.1% and in 2004 Howard got 40% thus 34% is between 6% and 3% lower than in previous elections…”

    Glen, you cannot deny the current figures by alluding to previous election results. To put it simply, people sometimes CHANGE their voting intention. It doesn’t matter how many votes Howard got back in 1996 or even in 2004, what we are seeing today is that a large number of people who once voted for Howard are now voting against him.

    And while I have no doubt that the truly rusted-on Liberal supporters would be somewhere in the 30 to 40 percent range, I also suspect that quite a few people who were historically strong Liberal supporters have jumped ship. In fact, I have met quite a few people who are planning to vote Labor for the first time in their life. Why? Because they feel that the Liberal Party no longer represents them. They tend to be small-“l” Liberals with a social conscience. So, as the party has shifted to the hard right, especially over the past few years, and as Labor has moved back into the centre, their previous loyalty to the Liberal Party has gone. Labor have become VERY appealling to them.

    So, yes, the Liberal Party has lost considerable support, even some previously rusted-on supporters. It might not be quite as bad as Morgan is currently suggesting, but its pretty bad.

  29. The Ruddians are at the Reichstag.

    Howard’s down to a Heff and a few young libs with Panzerfausts.

    Even Albrechtsen is crossing the Rhine.

  30. Anthony Llewellyn, love your work but your accusations spurious to say the least.

    If you want to talk gerrymander look at WA at a state level.

    The other realty is that elections are not won on national uniform swings.

    Labor will win this election and it won’t need the 51.4% you suggest.

    Labor will win it with the following;

    NT – one seat with a 2.8% swing
    WA – two seats within a 2.0% swing
    SA – three seats within a 0.9% swing
    NSW – one seat with a 0.8% swing, one seat with a 2.9% swing, one seat with a 3.3% swing and one seat with a 4.8% swing
    Qld – one seat with a 0.6% swing, one seat with a 2.8% swing and one seat with 5.7% swing
    Vic – none seats (they got them all at the last two elections)
    Tas – one seat with a 1.1% swing and one seat with a 2.6% swing.

    Don’t get misguided by national uniform swings. Look at the history of federal elections by state.

  31. Keats ill accept the result whoever wins the election be it Rudd or Howard…that doesnt mean i have to like it if Howard doesnt win…

    And Asanque im go through each 4 stages every day when i have to keep looking at polls like this…

  32. I think some perspective should be kept on this poll. It is only 919 people. The last Morgan poll was 1212. Probably a more realistic figure is between these two polls – about 57%TPPm – still enough for a landslide.

  33. WTF

    You all are popping champagne bottles over a poll of just 919 people and that puts the Coalition vote down 6.5% for no apparent reason and one that undervalues the National Party vote at just 1.5%…you guys need to take a cold shower and now!

  34. @ 14 Glen

    It’s moved Glen, that’s why they call it a swing.
    It used to be over there and now its over here.

    Do try to keep up.

  35. Glen. For once I agree. The Nat vote is too low. I have heard before that Morgan has been accused of a city bias.

    Even if this is true, it’s disaster time. What in essence Morgan may be highlighting is the poll disparity in urban areas–ie, where most of the seats are.

    Ruddslide in suburbia.

  36. Howard will stay on and fight this election, I believe the key will be preference flows. The Coalition and Labor know Family first could hold the keys to this election.

    The family first vote has been hugely underestimated in these pre-polling, on achieving around 2% of the vote in the Morgan poll – yet at the last Queensland state election they sealed about 7% of the vote and 4.98% in the south Australian Legislative Council in 2006. Every Election family first fight there primary vote has increased. They run a very clever campaign, running candidate in every seat and they have the ability to man every polling station.

    I think if family first votes hold around 5% in Queensland and SA, they will indirectly help save marginal seats for the coalition. I’m predicting a Howard-Costello victory with a loss of 6-8 seats. I don’t believe this poll to be reliable, it is under-quoting a lot of parties…

  37. This is presidential politics. It is a binary choice – the red candidate or the blue candidate: you have to take your pick from these two or wait until the next election. They are the rules and you must play by them.

    The first problem for blue man is his negative ratings so clearly outrank his positive ratings. Even though he does still have some positives, the margin is too big to turn around in a short space of time. As well, the positives register quite weakly, while the negatives are very strongly etched. The existing blue character is known inside and out by the market and is basically worn out. He needs a huge makeover.

    On the other hand, while the red man scores some negatives, his positives are very strong. They overwhelm the negative perceptions, which in any case do not resonate strongly. These rankings are not going to be reversed in the space of a few weeks. If anything they will be extended in the scrutiny of a campaign.

    The other problem for the blue man is that every time he’s tried to re-distinguish himself – to reinvent himself – he has moved away from his remaining positives: from the strengths of incumbency. He makes himself look impulsive, clutching and unstable.

    By contrast, the red man is still a work in progress, which means his characteristics can be tested and honed and trimmed without compromising their inherent features. It is a subtle creation and a born front-runner.

    The blue man is really in a bind. He cannot offer more of the same andhope to win. And yet he cannot change his identifying qualities.

    He might as well quit now.

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