Morgan: 60-40

Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.

UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

405 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. Hmm, no Democrats in the ACT.

    [THE embattled Australian Democrats are to be deregistered in the Australian Capital Territory because of a plunge in its membership.

    Democrats leader Lyn Allison admitted membership had fallen across the board, and blamed the media for presenting the party’s demise as a foregone conclusion.

    News of the deregistration came as a Morgan Poll yesterday found minor parties may take control of the Senate after the federal election, to be called within weeks.

    The July-August survey of more than 7200 voters across all states found Labor would take 17 Senate seats, the Coalition 13, and the minor parties six. But Labor’s gains would not give it majority control of the upper house, with only half of the Senate up for re-election.

    The Democrats were long-term holders of the balance of power before suffering a major setback in the 2004 election, when their representation was slashed to four. The Greens have gained popularity in the same period and now are ahead of the Democrats.

    Last month, Elections ACT called for objections to its intention to deregister the Democrats, for the ACT elections only, on the ground the party’s membership did not meet the minimum limit of 100. Elections ACT confirmed yesterday that no objections had been received when the objection period closed on Thursday. It would now move to formalise the deregistration. ],25197,22382056-11949,00.html

  2. Evan

    One thing I’ll say for JWH. His taste in ties is infinitely better than Ruddie or Costello’s. (Sometimes I wonder if Pete has more than 3 ties)

  3. I reckon the conservative commentators have a point about “Howard Haters”. I don’t think most people hate Howard. But nor do they love him. They have sort of regarded him as as necessary evil.

    But with the advent of Rudd, Howard is a necessary evil who’s no longer necessary!

  4. Liked Beasley’s response to the drovers dog question that he got the other night. Had the look of a man quite content to pursue a serious diplomatic role in either New York or Washington under a Rudd Labor government. Not a bad second prize really.

    Well JWH may not yet be officially gawn, but if I was a bookie, I’d be real nervous about taking too much exposure on Labor winning. This time its not a fat lady, but a ghostly Pavarotti who reminds us what singing truly is. Memo: Must remember Pavarotti arias cd for election night party.

    Because these last few days look to have finished Howard. He’s lost that crucial few percent of voters who take no real interest in politics but go with personality nuances like whether they are likely to win or lose. As for the industrial relations policy with the name that can’t be mentioned, I can see it being added to the Politics 101 syllabus, perhaps under the heading ‘How to alienate the constituency.’ For some reason I keep wanting to type the word ‘GAWN’.

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