Morgan: 60-40

Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.

UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

405 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. William

    The senate poll is from very large samples, about 14,000 all up.

    I think it shows that people want to restore the senate as a house of review.

    Seems to show that Boswell will miss out on QLD and Bartlett is still in with a chance.

    Would be good to see the democrats stay in, when they held the balance they were a good party of review until they went off the rails. But parties have been punished heavily before for their failings and still maanged to come back.

  2. Peter of Scarpat

    I bet the Frogs are real impressed that Downer speaks their native tongue despite the fact that he thinks they’re a bunch of surrender monkeys.

  5. Senate poll also shows the libs will lose 3 or 4 seats, Greens to pick up 3 and Democrats 1?

    Qld is the most fascinating, the joint ticket could work aganist the libs.

  6. Maybe if the Libs ever get back in power post Howard they will be able to crown Lord Downer our Ambassador to France? Something for the Frogs to look forward to.

  7. I wonder what the Hon. Member for Mayo was thinking in criciticing the Opposition leader for speaking in Mandarin to the Chinese visitors at APEC ? What does that gain for the Coalition’s election campaign ?

    For a foreign minister well versed in diplomacy and tact, he seems to be falling apart at the seams.

    Potentially embarressing himself and the Australian Government in the presence of leaders from a country Australia is hoping to develop a significant trade partnership with is both tacky and senseless.

    Then again, the insistence on attacking the Opposition leader on things that the electorate don’t particularly care about, ‘strippergate’ for example, makes no sense either. It does little more than reinforce the notion that the Coalition have nothing important to say about anything.

    I think the Hon. member for Mayo is, to put it bluntly in Australian terms, very ‘p…… off’ at the moment and won’t be sending any Christmas cards to Messrs Crosby and Textor this year. That dosen’t make much sense either: why dosen’t he just focus on getting council approval for developing a vineyard in the Adelaide hills: a forced retirement awaits him.

  9. As was stated before, all journalists have their preconceptions in regard to political parties. Some are just better at trying to follow professional journalistic practice, and critique both sides of an argument, in the case of pluralist democracy.
    I have no doubt in regard to Matt Price’s RW bent, but it is clear he follows these loose guidelines better than the likes of Akerman and Albrechsten.

  11. paul k

    what did the french ever do to us- i mean dolly in a foreign country could be qute dangerous
    pass the butter could take on all manner of connotations

    tried various combos re BFAC(s?)
    most unrepeatable

  12. Peter of Scarpat

    If they’re tough enough to eat snails and frog legs, they’re tough enough to take our good Lord Downer. And I’m sure he’ll be able to correct their pronunciation of the French language.

  13. [I have no doubt in regard to Matt Price’s RW bent, but it is clear he follows these loose guidelines better than the likes of Akerman and Albrechsten.]

    I think Price is pretty centrist. He likes taking the piss, and showing up the hipocrisy of both sides. He jumped on the Howard is doomed bandwagon pretty early on, even pre-budget from memory.

  14. Boll, yes it was feb 2006, it was a very revealing, his view of the Labour Party in this article shows a deeply prejudiced mindset, which he usually thinly disguises.

  18. The international news in Britain and the USA on APEC is about a riff between Bush and South Korea over North Korea. Looks like Bush isn’t having much fun with APEC.

    By Paul Wiseman, USA TODAY
    SYDNEY — President Bush had an awkward exchange over peace on the Korean peninsula with one of his prickliest allies: South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun. The exchange occurred on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Sydney, Friday.

  19. Downer says he finished his French course in 2 months and it took Rudd 2 years to learn Chinese trying to suggest that Rudd was a bit slow. If the sum total of Downer’s French learning is a 2 month then he doesn’t speak French. Rudd impressed my wife [Chinese] and no doubt picked up his real skill whilst in China.

    Matt Price has shown a real personal dislike of Rudd and has for the most part been incredculous at Rudd’s popularity.

  22. Shane 337: agree. These are extraordinary numbers from Rudd as ALP leader, so we shouldn’t be assuming ordinary (ie normal) trends for the forthcoming election.

    But I can’t agree with you on Beazley. Rightly or wrongly, I think too many swinging voters had a preconception of Beazley as not a winner and not up to the job of PM. I don’t think Beazley would have been able to sustain a large enough lead in the polls in 2007 to withstand an election campaign that Howard probably would have won.

    I don’t feel sorry for Costello. He’s had numerous opportunities to challenge Howard for the leadership and declined to contest. What’s the saying? You aren’t given power, you have to take it. Unlike Keating, Costello wasn’t prepared to do what it takes to take power.

    BTW fellow pollbludgers, this is Shane Easson, the former Chief of Staff to former NSW Premier Barrie Unsworth and twin brother of Michael Easson.

    BxTom 346: I take your point re cause versus effect on past polling performance of the ALP. But in my post #300 I was merely looking at previous poll movements to get a handle on what would be possible in the next 2 months, rather than what is likely to happen.

    Strap yourself in folks. The next couple of months is going to be a great ride for political junkies!

  23. Does anyone South Oz or other have the faintest idea why Mike Rann is so dragging the chain on water solutions for our parched State?

    Any chance that the water thing will be a Rudd announcement, campaign wise?

  24. Peter of Scarpat

    I reckon he’ll love it, especially the bits about how the impregnable fortress with 5500 police and 160 million dollars worth of security couldn’t stop some comedians dressed like Osama. I’m sure he’ll fire off a letter to the French President.

  25. [ Strap yourself in folks. The next couple of months is going to be a great ride for political junkies! ]

    Yeah but what happens to all us sad junkies after the election. Going to be some serious with-drawl symptoms.

  26. paul k Says:
    September 8th, 2007 at 12:44 am
    Peter of Scarpat

    I reckon he’ll love it, especially the bits about how the impregnable fortress with 5500 police and 160 million dollars worth of security couldn’t stop some comedians dressed like Osama. I’m sure he’ll fire off a letter to the French President.

    Let’s hope the French Government employs some good interpreters of pigeon french…

    Tom.

  27. Inside gossip from Michelle Grattan:

    “A fortnight ago key prime ministerial confidant Grahame Morris indicated to Liberal powerbroker and Costello ally Michael Kroger that Mr Howard would definitely not stand down before the election.

    Mr Morris told Mr Kroger in one of their regular conversations that Mr Howard was “full of beans” and thought he had a good campaign ready to go when the election was called. But one Liberal source yesterday claimed “no one believes in the party that he can turn it around”.
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pressure-mounts-on-pm/2007/09/07/1188783497256.html?page=2

  32. Latest US job figures are out and they are not good. More talk about a doming recession in the USA. Not sure if it will have any effect on international interest rates?

  33. # 375 paul k

    ‘Yeah but what happens to all us sad junkies after the election. Going to be some serious with-drawl symptoms’.

    Paul should know that at least Labor SA could find itself in serious bother. Chris Pyne, who is busy organising the State Lib Opposition, will have even more time to spend on this project.

    So, lots to go on with.

  36. [October 27th. No doubt. 7 week campaign]

    Somehow I think it won’t happen as Rugby Wold Cup Finals are in that period and if Australia make the finals and win the Cup, Howard will want to be there to welcome the victors home etc.

  38. [Shanahan predicting the election will be called next Wednesday, with parliament sitting until Friday to get the AEC state referendum bills through.]

    But if the writs are issued on the Friday, will any royal assent of any new legislation be suspended due to the caretaker conventions ?

    This is especially so if the legislation isn’t passed till late Thursday, and the legislation needs to be signed off by the GG before it can become law.

    VERY risky move.

  39. No way Frank. The election has to be called. Time is up. There is no better date.

    October 20th – The PM will want a longer campaign, especially with the footy finals soaking media coveage.

    November 3rd – Long weekend before the Melbourne Cup. Just before the Reserve bank meets, leading to negative speculation.

    November 10th – Reserve bank may have announced changes to monetary policy.

    November 17th (onwards) – too late. Speculation will paralyse the country.

  40. [But if the writs are issued on the Friday, will any royal assent of any new legislation be suspended due to the caretaker conventions ?]

    Shanahan says the writs wouldn’t be issued until Friday, which would make it possible for the governors to hold the senate writs open for a couple of weeks, thus keeping the electoral role open!

    If I was a state premier I would be giving my govenor some very strongly worded advice.

  41. [Shanahan says the writs wouldn’t be issued until Friday, which would make it possible for the governors to hold the senate writs open for a couple of weeks, thus keeping the electoral role open!]

    I meant the federal AEC State Referenda Bills, as they have to be given royal assent by the Governor General before being made law.

    [Australian Constitution – Section 58 – Royal assent to Bills & Recommendations by Governor-General
    When a proposed law passed by both Houses of the Parliament is presented to the Governor-General for the Queen’s assent, he shall declare, according to his discretion, but subject to this Constitution, that he assents in the Queen’s name, or that he withholds assent, or that he reserves the law for the Queen’s pleasure.

    The Governor-General may return to the house in which it originated any proposed law so presented to him, and may transmit therewith any amendments which he may recommend, and the Houses may deal with the recommendation. ]

    http://www.australianpolitics.com/constitution/text/58.shtml

    I wonder if the dissolving of Parliament may prevent the legislation becoming law.

  42. Re David @ 302
    Sorry been out.
    Look mate… I have obviously triggered a nerve and if it helps I apologise. But as you might well be aware some things do not have to be black and white to be devoid of colour. So it is with ‘fascism’: it is not (as I believe) a definitive term that has distinctive boundaries, and in fact has many variants… and I agree ours is not a totalitarian state… but I might throw a few things your way and you can set me straight if I’m wrong.
    Let’s take a few essentials from fascism…
    Nationalism will do for a start. ie Defining a nation through ethnicity, race or culture. Howard’s mantra has long been thus. The Cronulla riots spring to mind… the Muslim mistrust that has been fostered… to maintain power via fear “We will decide who comes…etc etc
    Another would be Authoritarianism eg 1) ie an erosion of civil liberties and freedom. The sedition laws are a case in point. The Attorney Generals efforts to re-write the censorship laws in regard to books and film… another. The blatant stone walling of FOI, another still. eg 2.) ie The power to govern without approval of the people… Dare I mention the war in Iraq? May I also allude to the rushing of 500 page bills through parliament without proper scrutiny… or the lack of Senate committees…. (Not black and white but certainly devoid of colour)
    Or Militarianism… we’re not there ‘yet’ (tongue in cheek) but in the ambiguity of the moment … let’s begin with Peter Reith’s military intervention of the dockyards… a city cordoned off like Sydney is as present… our ‘defense’ force used so frequently in the region with subtle ideological strings… Guantanamo… prisoner rendition… how about armed guards, barbed wire and solitary confinement for asylum seekers?… Perhaps an island fortress for their processing… a larger and politicised AFP… detention without trial (in orange jumpsuit with chains no less)… relentless pursuit of whistleblowers… criminal charges against the press… How about troops being called into the NT? Not militarianism but y’know you have to start somewhere….
    let’s look at liberalism (the antithesis of fascism)… limitation on the power of government, freedom of speech, separation of powers and adherence to the rule of law through transparent governance… How is Petro Georgiou being treated these days by the way?
    I don’t know about you but Andrew Wilke might agree with some of my thoughts , so might the family of Merve Jenkins… or maybe the odd Muslim with a bunch of kids… perhaps its something about neocon ideology wrapped up in a pretty bow that stinks… you tell me and I’ll give you a non-core promise never to call them fascist again! lol

  43. [I meant the federal AEC State Referenda Bills, as they have to be given royal assent by the Governor General before being made law.]

    Shanahan is suggesting Howard will simply announce the election date on Wednesday, but not go to the govenor general until Friday.

  44. [Shanahan is suggesting Howard will simply announce the election date on Wednesday, but not go to the govenor general until Friday.]

    But there is still the problem of getting assent if the legislation is passed on late Thursday night – I don’t think the GG would appreciate being pressured to give assent urgently for what basically is political legislation, as opposed to anything due to war etc, if you get my mangled drift.

  46. [But there is still the problem of getting assent if the legislation is passed on late Thursday night – I don’t think the GG would appreciate being pressured to give assent urgently for what basically is political legislation, as opposed to anything due to war etc, if you get my mangled drift.]

    I thought this happened often. Don’t they just get the govenor general’s deputy to give the assent if the GG is elsewhere (i.e. polishing his saber).

  47. Sideline Eye says:

    “BTW fellow pollbludgers, this is Shane Easson, the former Chief of Staff to former NSW Premier Barrie Unsworth…”

    Hope you weren’t the bloke who picked-out his cardigans for him.

    Sorry. My attempt at humour.

    Pleased to meet you and Welcome.

    (BTW It’s actually not that stupid a comment. I did know-Biblically and otherwise-one of John Winston’s early minders. Poor woman had to pick out the old coot’s ties for him before they shoved him in front of a camera as hit taste left something to be desired). AAAh. The old days………….

  48. [I thought this happened often. Don’t they just get the govenor general’s deputy to give the assent if the GG is elsewhere (i.e. polishing his saber).]

    Actually I think once the writs are issued everything legislatively stops as I believe you can’t seperate the writs, unless Howard decides to only hold a HoR election on one date and delay the half senate election till a later date.

    I’m pretty sure those who are familiar on such constitutional matters like Adam etc may wish to comment on this.

  49. I was under the impression that once the writs were issued the only way something could be done would be if the Opportsition agreed, gee could be Howard’s wedgie attempt at Rudd.

  50. [I was under the impression that once the writs were issued the only way something could be done would be if the Opportsition agreed, gee could be Howard’s wedgie attempt at Rudd.]

    That’s what I thought, hence the reason why the bills won’t be law in time for the Election.

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