Morgan: 60-40

Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.

UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

405 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. Post 274 is a disgrace. It adds nothing to the discussion. If the original post had been intended as hyperbole (hyberbole, by the way, I could understand), then Gecko’s contribution might have been mildly amusing yet the author says dismissively to that observation, “give me a break”. The Howard government is susceptible to many criticisms (very well articulated by regular posters on these threads) but it is not remotely fascist. A proper understanding of the meaning of totalitarianism and its fascist manifestation goes beyond reciting a Macquarie dictionary definition, although a study of history in the 1920’s and 1930’s could be a good starting point.

  2. There is a big difference between popular and influential … Today Tonight is popular, a lot of people watch it (I daresay not many that read this blog)… fewer people watch Lateline, but it is watched by people who matter, who may make opinion, , it is influential.

  3. Goodness gracious me, Glen.

    I always thought the heart of the Liberal philosophy was individual freedom and personal responsibility.

    All this whingeing and blaming others for one’s personal misfortune is just not acceptable. Back to the room of mirrors for a close examination.

    Can’t have the riff raff know you don’t like the the taste of hot steel up you. You have to deal with the circumstances the best way you can.

  4. What I’m surprised about is the extent the leadership speculation has completely knocked off any coverage of APEC.

    Remember, today was supposed to be the day when Russia and Australia signed their uranium deal (which they did). Instead, everyone is talking about Howard resigning and who his replacement will be…

    What’s even more amazing is that it’s now only a week since the Morgan 54.5/45.5 poll, which showed the Coalition picking up 4% in 2 weeks. People were talking about a resurgence for Howard – just goes to show how much can change in a week in politics!!!

  5. @275
    Scotty Says:
    September 7th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
    Maxine in to $2.10 (against $1.65) at Centrebet. I think this is the best odds we’ve seen so far.

    Scotty, Max was in to $2.10 about 3 weeks ago, but never shorter…….YET. Knuck,knuck,knuck!!

  6. I Never read Albrechsten but I got the gist of the article from the first line or two, I clicked on to it and went to the bottom to see if there were any comments I was going to add mine about being a fair weather friend.
    The Leadership issue will be in the MSM daily until the election date is announced, in the papers and on the nightly news. The troops will be in panic mode, the ship is sinking and there are no lifeboats

  7. Looks like the APEC global warming target is going to be to cut emissions by 25% by 2030. However, it is not inforceable, AND the documenta says the United Nations forum is best equipped to deal with global warming. This is a smack in the face to both Australia and the U.S. who refuse to ratify Kyoto. So Rudd has an excellent way to attack this document during the election campaign.,23599,22381708-29277,00.html

  8. Btw,

    Portlandbet has just (temporarily) suspended betting on Bennelong – I guess they’re waiting to find out what’s going to happen with JWH

  9. Blackburnseph – sure Lateline is interesting, stimulating, etc. But influential? People who matter? Who might they be? Everyone gets a vote (just one vote), not just the people who watch the ABC.

  10. This morning while taking a break from Work I sat in a coffee shop reading the Herald Sun, Victoria’s number 1 newspaper and the coverage of APEC was all positive for Rudd, I think page 3 or 4 was all about him speaking Mandarin.

    When I look at these poll numbers, we are well past the point of calling them rogues, there is a clear swing on and has been all year.

    On one hand it would be an amazing Election night if the result matched the polls, but looking at these numbers there is something scary about them.

    I mean sure I want to see the back of Howard, but I’ve seen considerable worst Govt get beaten by smaller margins than these polls.

    I recall 1996 was called approx 6:45 I wonder if Anthony Green will be calling it earlier than that.

    I’m still somewhat baffled as to why Victoria doesn’t appear to be moving as much as NSW, QLD or SA.

    I think the Nationals will do okay and while I suspect they will lose:

    With Gippsland, Cowper, Wide Bay all looking interesting, but I will add with polls like these I feel we should chuck out the Pendulum for if these polls are right then what is coming will be hairy.

    I recall in the 1997 British Election the BBC had a graphic of a Jet Fighter fly over a map of the UK and drop a bomb which when landed turned all the Blue seats Red.

    What I find strange is I live in a Seat with a margin below 10% but I’m seeing nothing from the local MP, and I’m not seeing posters or ads in the local press, its as thou he has given up or just thinks this seat isn’t turning.

    Its rubbish for People to day the types that live around my patch only read the Age, I only ever see them reading the Herald Sun.

    I’m not surprised the ALP think they can pick up a Goldstein, while it looks safe and is very safe for the Liberals, if these polls match the final result then there will be one or two Goldsteins.

    I’m still expecting the result to be closer than these poll numbers, but looking at APEC which has been a big win for Rudd, and with talk of increased Interest Rates I just can’t see Howard making any in roads, and I have some very bad news for Liberal supporters.

    My Mum hates Politics and takes no interest what so ever, guess what she is fully aware of the cost of APEC and the Horse Flu caused in part by Howard softening Quarantine laws.

    Point being even the totally disinterested are now baying for Howard’s head

    Prediction for Nielsen ALP 58-Lib 42

  11. [I’m still somewhat baffled as to why Victoria doesn’t appear to be moving as much as NSW, QLD or SA.]

    Can the ALP go any higher there, they seem to be at a pretty high water mark.

  12. Yes Glen, the proliferation of media politics is an interesting phenomenon. I think it was mastered under Keating, and Howard built on it, 1 in 10 public servants are now media advisors/minders/spin doctors, call them what you will.
    The benefits of incumbency are great in driving, and shaping the news agenda. However, the news is always uncontrollable, and subvertable by less powerful interest groups, such as unions and oppositions.
    The Howard government appears to have ticked off a wide range of interest groups. This is evident in the media coverage of the government. Dont know where the leadership speculation has come from, but its certainly not helping the incumbent.

  13. Winston@312

    Lateline is influential because it sets the news agenda for the next day.

    BMW @ 313

    I remember seeing that BBC graphic whilst sitting in a Hong Kong bar, it was a cracker! The way the blue would explode and come down red! Re:
    Not hearing from your local MP, here in Deakin, we haven’t heard a thing from the libs either, maybe they are keeping their powder dry for either the campaign or something new! It doesn’t help that our local paper has not arrived for the past 3 weeks. But after a mid year flurry from the ALP, nothing from them either. Last election we kept all of the advertsing material and by the end had a pile 15cm high.

    Maybe this time there should be Pollbludger advertsing material weigh in! Counted from the date the election is called.

  14. Simon post 316: Ask can the ALP go higher in Victoria?

    Yes, they could lets remember that back in the Hawke/Keating days the ALP held at varies times the following now Liberal held seats.

    Aston 1987,
    Lt Trobe 1987,
    Deakin 1983,
    Dunkley 1993,
    McEwen 1993,
    Flinders 1983,
    McMillian 2001,

    I accept people vote differently at Federal and State Elections but with people did vote the same as they have for Brack then the ALP could win

    Lt Trobe, Deakin, Dunkley, McEwen, Corrangamitte

    with the following being close

    Aston, Higgins, Flinders, Casey, Goldstein

  15. [ Lateline is influential because it sets the news agenda for the next day ]

    I’ve often heard the talk back radio jocs lead off their shows with something that was on Lateline. They never mention Lateline of coarse and pretend they thought of it themselves but nevertheless their questions to the audience is almost a carbon copy of Lateline’s questioning. I think it’s more influential than many people assume.

  16. The years next to the seat names were the last time the ALP won them.

    Aston 1987,
    Lt Trobe 1987,
    Deakin 1983,
    Dunkley 1993,
    McEwen 1993,
    Flinders 1983,
    McMillian 2001,

  17. [ Lateline is influential because it sets the news agenda for the next day ]

    Here in WA unfortunately is that poisonous right wing rag The West Australian which sets the agenda for the day 🙁 It actually makes the GG look like The Times.

  18. Polls on Benelong and how safe Howard is?

    I don’t think one has been taken since his meeting with the Exclusive Brethren and disclosures about the massive finanial backing they gave him in his own seat and other seats.

    I’d say many would be uncomfortable with his close association with this extremist sect. Those who voted for him in 2004 would not be aware of his backers.

    “JOHN Howard has held a private meeting with the most senior leaders of the Exclusive Brethren, including a man under investigation by police over his massive spending on the Prime Minister’s 2004 election campaign”

    “Keep Australia in safe hands, Keep Howard Prime Minister”

    This from a secretive organisation, it is not a good look.

  19. [ Name calling is used when the arguments are weak. There is really no need for it. ]

    I totally agree but I think we should be allowed to make an exception for Downer. He’s just too, too funny to take seriously. As I’ve said many times I think he should get his own TV comedy sitcom after he leaves politics. Or maybe a regular segment on Kath and Kim.

  20. [I totally agree but I think we should be allowed to make an exception for Downer. He’s just too, too funny to take seriously.]

    I second the motion, and reserve my right to speak.

  21. I also reserve my right to insult Howard, Costello, Downer etc.
    Sure I’m a biased Labor supporter, and very proud of it too!

  22. To be serious for a moment about the name calling. While I don’t really like people calling our Pollies names, what bothers me more is the personal attacks some people make on some of the posters. How many times have I been accused of being a Communist and a Terrorist just because I no longer support Howard and now support Rudd. It’s pathetic and childish the way you get insulted sometimes.

  23. The election with Howard as Lib leader has been over for some time. In my view since before Rudd became Labor leader.

    I would have supported Beazley in December 2006.I was very hesistant to support a change based on the ‘times up’ syndrome ( necessary but not sufficient) plus the fact that Beazley was a safe,talented, far ahead in the polls and deserving alternative.Given the Latham experiment, I couldn’t accept the idea that once again we should contemplate embracing an alternative leader without a couple of decades in the public eye and at least some years of Cabinet Office.

    Well, I was wrong. Rudd overcame the experience (read credibility) test,with the added advantage of being fresh and safe.He has taken Labor’s support to another level far above either Gough or Hawke at their zenith and not seen since the days of John Curtin in WWII.
    Governments change in Australia ( when there’s not a world crisis) when both the Government is aging and the Opposition ( read Opposition Leader) is seen to be credible.

    I feel very sorry for Costello. Were I the Libs I’d still make the change but it’s much too late to attain a smooth transition.

    When the history is written the relevant date will be 1966!

    In 1961, at 67 and after 12 years as PM, Menzies squeaked through against the then 65 yo Arthur Calwell.In 1963 Menzies was 69 ,Calwell 67. Labor’s Deputy Leader Gough Whitlam begged Calwell to retire after the 1964 Senate election when he was 68 and Menzies 70. Calwell refused and lead Labor into its worst ever defeat in December,1966 against Harold Holt who having served as Deputy Liberal Leader for 10 years and Treasurer for 8 ( sound familiar?) had finally replaced Menzies in January 1966.
    Gough had argued whoever made the transition first would have the advantage. He was right. A transition from Calwell to Whitlam might have worked in 1965.
    Costello’s chances of best revitalising the Coalition was in mid 2006. He is a much diminished figure now.

  24. Some unbiased Matt Price from Mumble today . Whereas the Liberals routinely attract a healthy mix of hardened political professionals and relatively artless amateurs …, Labor is left to drown in its nasty, narrow, cloistered, limiting, repulsive, infested, depressing and ultimately suffocating union gene pool.
    Matt is a not so sly Liberal hack with a have a beer carn the dockers disguise. IMHO.

  25. “It’s the Matt Prices of the media that are readable, and carry more influence.”

    Gimmie a break.

    Matt Price has been polishing Howard’s piles in his columns for years. If he’s now had a change of heart, it is only because the polls now confirm that Howard is so on the nose that his defeat is inevitable, and ol’ Matty can’t be seen to be wrong, now can he?

  26. Re: Kruddy.

    I use it affectionately, I don’t think it is a term of abuse. JHo is kinda cute too. K. Rudd, and then Ruddy – it is not a big stretch.

    I don’t take with using ‘the rodent’.

  27. Matt Price is sort of a bellwether journalist… one of the first this year to sniff the winds of change… he protects his own hide well.

  28. Pity Amanda Vanstone if Howard loses the election. She’ll have to come back from her tax payer funded Roman holiday and find a real job.

  29. Sideline at 300 and ifonly at 213, those stats are an effect, not the cause. You cannot predict future results on these as there were different causes. To do so is to state that there WILL be a Tampa or 9/11 event happening to justify your predictions AND the press WILL highlight these points AND the media WILL support Howard.

    Based upon these arguments I could just as effectively argue that Howard will admit he is a closet gay and a communist. It is just pure conjecture. We cannot accurately predict what the stats will be other than on the current trends and I am sure the stats people here will support this.

    Howard had some significant events go his way, there are equal odds (or arguably better) that future events will be in Rudd’s favour ( i.e. any terrorist event on Aussie terror would probably be largely attributed to Howard for his Iraq involvement) .


  30. barbara @ 333

    try – you can still get $2.26 for Bennelong. Once the rudd wave hits it will be seen as very good odds.

  31. I went to the local markets here in south-west France this morning and what the locals were speculating about (in Alexandre Downer’s best French) was, if John Howard steps down in favour of Peter Costello, would Peter and Tanya move into Kirribilli for 8 weeks or so, and, more to the point, would they invite John and Janette over for dinner?

  32. Cynic @ 340

    No camels – but that has trigged a metal image that will be tricky to erase.

    In case others are bemused cynic and I are trying to decode the acromyn of “BFAC” for Joe Hockey.

  33. #338 El Duce, I think you`ll find those comments were penned by Matt Price 2 or 3 years ago. I think the point being made was that he`s changed his tune a little since then. Still pretty bloody funny in retrospect though.

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