Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.
UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.
Max’s comment @ 53 highlights an interesting point. Some voters might swing back to the coalition in light of a rout approaching ‘biblical’ force. Whether it is feasible or not, public perception of the possibility will come into effect. ie. If the polls keep moving the way they are… there might not be an opposition at all. I imagine the coalition will highlight this ‘fear’ in the coming months. Perhaps we should maintain at least the veneer of a ‘closer than expected’ predicted outcome just in case.
(But an opposition of 25 led by the likes of Monsieur Downer, Mistress Bishop & ghost of the living dead… Ruddock… does sound pretty sweet.)
Glen 97: Neither Swan nor Costello is an Economist. And both have the benefit of the same treasury advice. The greatest reforming treasurer of our time left school at 14. Costello’s stewardship over record trade deficits in a boom of this magnitude, tells all. Give it up.
This election has slaughter written all over it…
Howard leaderhsip was the lead story on SBS news too!
Could this all become self-fullfilling?
Selffulfilling? Possibly
On the other hand, given the obtusness of the MSM (see Possum’s comments re the C/T report) maybe we’re seeing a pack egerly following cochineal instead of blood.
[Howard leaderhsip was the lead story on SBS news too!]
It was second here (as part of the Putin Story) Lead story was Shrub’s verbal dyslexia. Chaser and “security” was 3rd, with them Dom Knight, Chris Taylor and Craig R stopped for having cardboard limos they were going to “drive” in the area.
I wonder if the cops would arrest any children under 10 yrs of age (Minimum age of criminal responsability) riding kiddies trikes/push cars -especially of the police variety ?
Got back to Australia, landed in Sydney, no Age so I brought the Australian.
Janet Albrechtsen. Three column feet to say “I Love you John but piss offâ€.
charles 171
LOL. Nice one.
And I agree that Aboriginal Affairs would be the perfect portfolio for Garrett and the Aborigines, especially as a separate department, not rolled into any other.
I agree with Jasmine and Sideline Eye among others – back in May/June I thought the L-NP would close it down to 48-52 or 49-51 by election time and in June it looked like they were doing it but they haven’t really gained a thing since and if anything it is now opening up again. It’s still likely to be 43-57 or so whenever the election is called, and even with the undecided drifting back and movements depending on the course of the campaign it will be really hard work for the L-NP to get it back to 47-53.
Looking at Portlandbet, a useful thing to notice is how many of the “close” seats have the Liberals ahead in the current betting. There are 29 seats (excluding the two that Independents are favoured to retain) with both parties $1.40 or longer and Labor leads in just ten of those. What this means is even if the seat tally looks close, there are a lot more risks in the L-NP bucket than Labor’s. Furthermore Labor isn’t very likely to lose favoritism in any seat it currently leads in while several of the Coalition seats will switch over once money comes in on the basis of current trends.
Without completely ruling out that the Coalition might find some way out of this mess, I reckon the question is most likely whether it will be fairly close or a massacre. My current estimate (first attempt at a seat total from me!) is 64-84-2, which accords very closely with Mumble’s, but that could blow out a lot before the election if the polls do not move during the campaign.
Alpal & blackburnpseph, Agree with part of your commentary, i.e., speculation on Howard’s future will be all over the msm over the weekend. However, I think they would be quite aware of how very, very, hugely repulsive to the electorate is the member for Higgins. They are in panic mode and likely only to run in ever diminishing circles, unable to decide anything. Evidence for their being in panic mode is readily available in their behaviour, Downer shrilly boasting about his French vs. Rudd’s Mandarin, bleating about Rudd boasting he was going to win, Costello looks depressed (wouldn’t mind having the opportunity to do a mental state examination, would be absolutely fascinating), Howard’s reaction to Rudd’s performance with Hu. I could go on, however, I’ve been observing those who have been on the Telly and radio, and without doing formal evaluations, I’d bet my bottom dollar that most of them are either depressed or panicking. Not a good position from which to make major decisions. If they do insert the fork, or Howard decides to go (which I think highly unlikely, too stubborn and so on), it’s just more evidence to me that they haven’t got a clue what to do to reverse the descent into hell.
blackburnpseph Peter Garrett won’t join the left because he doesn’t line up with them on some issues.
Once Kevin Bonham starts entering the debate, it must be time for me too!
John Howard is gone because the commentators say he is.
Once you lose the support of the press, particularly the Murdoch press, you can rack your cue. It is possible to win without Murdoch, but you need to not have had it to start with (like Rudd up until now). But to have it then lose it … there is no going back from there.
I know it seems difficult to believe that Howard will stand aside before the election, but put yourself in his position. He is in a poop sandwich. He needs to pick the lesser of two evils: resigning now he keeps a modicum of dignity; wait for the election and his legacy is that of the biggest loser since … ever, particularly if he loses his own seat (which is more likely than not.) All the evidence to date is that Howard is a pragmatist – he does whatever it takes – and a pragmatist would quit now.
Anyway, we will know soon enough …
“ruawake i agree somlyay is a joke. meet over a beer at the coolum bar after the elec. and toast alex downfall if u want. lol”
Just have to dodge Birtwill St. can stand driving past the invisible man’s office. 🙂
I’ll be the idiot doing the silly walks up David Lowe Way if Somlyay looses. 😉
Message to coalition. Please, please, please install Dolly as leader.
Re (211)
Enjaybee Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Message to coalition. Please, please, please install Dolly as leader.
It would only make the damage worse lol and while I might enjoy seeing it I think we have as much chance of seeing that as the Crows have of winning the GF
OK, people have been asking about swings that have happened this close to an election. To be a pedant, a swing should be using the same measure, what we are actually talking about is a difference between a poll 8 weeks out and an election result.
Here is what Morgan had for ALP first preference 8 weeks out and then the result at the election from 1975 onwards
75 43 42
77 44 39
79 45 45
80 45 47
83 49 52
84 50 51
87 49 48
90 45 39
93 43 44
96 40 37
98 44 40
01 39 44
04 44 38
What the polls are telling me is the level of hatred for this government is swelling so much you can now taste it… it’s not like other elections because no other government in our history has ever been as mean and divisive as this one. References to past polls cannot reflect the mood most of us presently feel because we haven’t been here before.
Incarcerated children, draconian sedition laws, cobbled senate, military in the bush, citizens tortured, Sydney barricaded, our states under attack, 650,00 people dead… lies upon lies upon denial and deceit… Workchoices, and now guns pointed at women in the street! Our Anzacs would be rolling in their graves at such a national capitulation without firing a shot.
Australians are waking up and they are discovering that their countrymen feel the same… the tide is on and this election will break records.
APEC is Rome: the Emperor is playing the fiddle and (bugger me!) the Foreign Minister can speak French… (who’d have thought?)
Off with their aspirational fascist heads!
Julie
(212)
A little more damage would be icing on the cake. Keep your eyes on the Crows – they might just do it. Personally I prefer the Power.
Dreadful TV news coverage for the Rodent: his good mate Bush mangling the English language, Kevin Rudd making the most of his APEC appearances, and rumours of a leadership handover to Captain Smirk.
Combine that with more examples of over the top security in Sydney and the Chaser boys – not what Howard was hoping for when he decided to hold APEC in Sydney.
However, according to the ABC radio political correspondent, Western Australian Liberals are still convinced Howard can win and they will hold all their WA marginals & possibly gain Cowan off Labor.
NJB 211 and Julie 212
Downer as PM is bizarrely interesting as a political tactic.
Boothby and Sturt are both lost for the Coalition on this kind of swing but maybe a fluent Francophone PM from SA would hold these seats.
i cant see that Howard stepping down will help the libs, Costello isnt very popular and his undermining the party by showing the rifts between Howard and himself yet again is still fairly fresh, it could actually cause them a bit more angst, people waiting with baseball bats to get Howard could feel frustrated and angry having that taken from them and whack the libs a bit harder, Howard again today said he would be leading the libs into the election, i think he’s too pig headed to give up and he’ll hang onto the leadership just in case another Tampa comes sailing over the horizon during the campaign.
by the way Bush thanked Mr. Howard Austrian the prime minister today.
[However, according to the ABC radio political correspondent, Western Australian Liberals are still convinced Howard can win and they will hold all their WA marginals & possibly gain Cowan off Labor.]
The WA LIberals are in a mess locally, with their leader having 16% approval rating, and there is talk HE could be rolled after a federal poll. When Howard was here the other month, Mr Omodei was nowhere to be seen.
gecko
i think the public are saying:
the tumbrels are ready
we only need the guillotines set up
liberty. equality. fraternity.
dolly should know those words if he studied french
(personally i think the only french he has studied is lingerie and stockings)
🙂
Gecko, apparently, does not understand what fascism means unless of course post 214 is hyperbole. If it is the latter, I say bring back Cerdic Conan so we can have a little balance, please!
It is interesting, the polls indicate support for the ALP is somewhere between 55-60% and yet this forum seems to be 80-85%. It may say something about the demographic of bloggers, vocal left-of-centre or political/poll junkies.
HH at 216
If the WA Liberals are thinking that, they should stop drinking seawater.
With friends like Bush who needs enemies? While dubya was fluffing his lines and calling australian troups austrians, Rudd was impressing the Chinese with his mandarin (the language, not the fruit).
Considering recent polls showing the great majority of australians distrust bush, the president’s clear preference for Howard can only work against him. It’s a lame-duck president supporting a dead-duck PM. He’s tied to the past. Rudd is seen as a leader for the future. I don’t know if that’s what Howard intended for OPEC, err APEC.
What will the polls show next week?
213
ifonly Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 8:01 pm
OK, people have been asking about swings that have happened this close to an election….
ifonly, it would also be helpful if we could see the trends leading up to election.
It is clear that final votes and poll data can vary by just a little….or by a significant amount in either direction. But from a cursory glance, it looks like the trend shifted according to whichever side held the political initiative as polling day approached.
For a few weeks mid-year the trend away from Howard appeared to be gradually recoiling, but more recently the trend has resumed its direction in favour of Rudd. We are so close to the real poll that we could be in your 8-week window and what we are seeing now is the extension of Labor’s lead. It certainly feels like it.
I think Howard has tried everything he can think of and has failed to steer the political momentum back to his advantage. Rudd’s standing is growing every day and the Liberals know it – you can tell from Alexander’s bumbling afforts to find words of hope and reassurance. Political initiative is not something you associate with the Government: they look stricken, in fact.
I hope that Howard does not take the coward’s way out and resign next week. His one chance to preserve some dignity is to fight it out and take the verdict on the chin and give us a much deserved concession speech. VCR’s around the country are waiting for it.
JULIE.
hey my beloved crows came from this position both times they won their premierships, the only team that managed it lol, i’m listening to the power match now as i type.
i’m hoping and praying Howard hangs in there, i know its a bit nasty and petty but i WANT to whack him, i WANT to see the self satisfied grin wiped off Downers face when his mate gives his final speech,{is it my imagination or has Downers cheeks got an unhealthy red lately} all i’m doing now is keeping everything crossed that no Tampa incident turns up, i WANT to see Prissy Pyne lose his seat, he’s a younger Howard and a nasty piece of work believe me.
I agree with blindoptimist on this, I think election campaigns tend to accentuate trends, not change them. Those who think Howard has a tactic to turn this election would have to explain what it is and why it hasn’t worked so far. I think Howard just has to wait until he can pick up a positive trend and hope he can push it further. But I just can’t see what it would be, and whatever it was, it would have to be a stunner.
The more the media continue to speculate about Howard and resigning the more it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy…the only possible way Howard can quell the bad press is to commit to serve a full term if elected…since that is unlikely…expect Oakes and the like to continue to talk up a leadership spill…the last thing the Libs want is to lose 2 Prime Ministers in a matter of weeks…wonder how to focus groups are going maybe they are saying that Howard is making them switch off…the thing about Howard is that he’s a catch 22 i mean he’s the best and worst asset the Coalition has at the moment…while i dont think he’ll quit he could be forced to step aside…clearly something has got to give if you’re 20points down in the polls…
George Bush told MarkVaile “We’re kicking ass” in relation to Iraq according to the Sydney Morning Herald.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/by-george-now-its-all-the-way-with-howard-j/2007/09/05/1188783320123.html
Non of these guys live in the real world and that’s why they’re a dying breed.
Who would want the leadership now? I think senior Liberals know this problem extends well beyond Howard and that any new challenger would if anything make things worse (and be blamed for it). I wouldn’t take the leadership at face value, I think it is mainly driven by Liberal supporters trying to get their heads around what is coming up by kidding themselves Howard is the problem. The reason why people think Howard will step down this time is because otherwise what would he stay around to do? He has no programme.
[the only possible way Howard can quell the bad press is to commit to serve a full term if elected]
It may be better if he promises to resign within the first 12 months after the election.
[while i dont think he’ll quit he could be forced to step aside…clearly something has got to give if you’re 20points down in the polls…]
I think he will make a big policy announcement. Remove the GST from petrol and houses. Remove one of the tax scales, cut the GST by 2%. If he THINKS he is going to lose, then he will try a radical policy change, it isn’t like he has that many votes to lose, if it goes well he could gain some votes.
[Who would want the leadership now?]
Costello would take it. For years now he has demonstrated that the only way he would ever become P.M. is if it was handed to him on a platter. He never had the guts to go get the prize for himself.
[the only possible way Howard can quell the bad press is to commit]…suicide.
RE: Garrett, I don’t really care what they do with him.
Mostly, I just want someone with a clue – and I mean that, not an expert, just someone with an actual clue in Communications.
Alston was a complete Joke – dubbed “Worlds Biggest Luddite” by one tech journal, and Coonan was ridiculous trying to explain the internet filter hack on Perth radio the other day. What she was saying was obviously wrong.
Please – this stuff is important, can we just get someone who can actually understand the portfolio?
Simon, yes. It’s the NTL rule. If Howard is this far behind in the polls, he may as well try everything he can. If it works OK. The threat now is from his own party.
There will be no change of leadership of the Liberal Party before the election because Howard wont step down (Jannette wont let him) and no one else will want to challenge him anyway.
My reading of Howard’s character is that he is stubborn and has deluded himself that only he can save the Liberal Party and therefore must stay on as leader.
I tend to agree with Possum Comitatus’ analysis that the Libs are now adopting a defensive strategy to minimise the extent of the defeat and that Howard is their best bet to limit the damage.
For a while this year the polling was going to the standard script. ALP has a lead – the conservatives shake things up a bit, bring them within striking range and start the election.
This time around it was slowly tracking back to the coalition but then stopped and went back then other way. I was casting my mind back to think of the point this occoured. I think it was the week that Haneef affair blew up in Andrew’s face and Howard annouced the takeover of Davenport. I think these were the last two straws – its been going backwards for Howard ever since and may not stop.
re the leadership stuff
maybe joe hockey is a possibility though worstchoices and him being a member of the bfacs
wouldnt help
Paul k you have sunk to an all time low…your fellow left wing supporters ought to be ashamed to have you on their side…that you would make fun of the Prime Minister and suggest he kill himself just shows what kind of a disgusting person you are i hope you have a real hard think about what you said that is just plain wrong…
Prime Minister Julie Bishop
Prime Minister Peter Costello
Prime Minister Brendan Nelson
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
Prime Minister Joe Hockey
Which one has the best ring to it just in case Mr Howard gets the tap on the shoulder???
Glen,
I did it because I knew you’d react just the way you did. It’s my democratic right to make fun of the PM. Do you even remember what democracy is?
[paul k Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
[the only possible way Howard can quell the bad press is to commit]…suicide.]
Actually when the WA Liberal Party launched their State Election campaign in 2005, Colin BArnett entered the hall to a High School band playing the theme from MASH, which is subtitled “Suicide is Painless”
Rather prophetic I thought.
Prime Minister Downer.
The name suits the Libs in the polls at the present.!
dare I ask BFACS?
Who would want the leadership now?
Julie Bishop 😉
Tomorrow’s meeting between Abe, Howard and Bush will be interesting. Three lame duck leaders sitting in a row.
I for one am glad i dont have Paul K on my side of politics the left can have all the people who think its funny to suggest people kill themselves as a joke…
If i remember correctly Colin was ahead by about 10points just out from the election then………the canal……..but had it been 2 years later the canal idea probably would have won him the election…but in 2005 nobody gave a toss about water security on either side of politics…
231
No one would believe a “big policy” announcement from John Howard.
[There will be no change of leadership of the Liberal Party before the election because Howard wont step down (Jannette wont let him) and no one else will want to challenge him anyway.]
Maybe that’s the trouble here. Howard won’t resign, and the rest of the party is too gutless to challenge. So it is a perfect stalemate which could lead them into electoral oblivion.
I still think the only way Howard will go is if Dolly convinces him to resign, and for there to be a smoothly orchestrated transition to Costello, and Downer as the deputy.
Reverting to a party room vote would ensure a landslide defeat, because it would result in bitterness and division.
[ I for one am glad i dont have Paul K on my side of politics ]
That’s OK Glen. I’m also glad we’re not on the same side.