Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.
UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.
HH: They may pick up a few. Not the last Victorian election, but the one before it saw the Nats take a huge hammering and rather than seats going to the Libs, they fell to Labor. Of course that’s a state election, but it is possible some very safe Nat seats become ‘safe’ or ‘fairly safe’.
Guido Harper is from Alberta far far far from Quebec and Downer would be disrespecting him by speaking in French to him after all he’s a Tory.
Do I detect the smell of death????
portlandbet has Labor at $2.00 in Page – certainly within the realm.
Talking of the Nats vote share is unrevealing.
Rural Australia, in modern times, is significantly more conservative (in the true sense of the word) than urban and provincial city Australia. Ergo the Nats are a protected species, not by reason of the old rural-weighting, but by the fact they colonised fertile soil, even if that soil grows less populous over time.
(As it happens, I prefer the Nats over the Liberals, and would have supported Springborg over Beattie – but the 3 cornered contest restriction prevents me voting that way).
Re 149 Howard Hater
That’s it the McDonaldization of the Cabinet. Career politicians rather than career environmentalists.
I think I’ll vote Green. Always have before, but only on the Senate. This time maybe it should be reps as well.
[ Garrett could very well be sidelined to another portfolio ]
Surely it’s their policies and attitude, etc which is important and not which Celeb gets which portfolio. Who cares which portfolio Garrett gets?
[Tony…Garrett like the rest of Rudd’s front bench is invisible you wont be hearing alot from him during the election campaign…]
Unlike Downer who is very visible, he was quoted on Sky News today as saying: “EVERYONE, LOOK AT ME, LOOK AT ME, I’M MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS! I CAN SPEAK FRENCH! PARLEZ VOUS FRANCAIS?!”
The Chinese President has invited the Rudds to the Beijing Olympics.
This APEC Summit is fast becoming an own goal for Howard/Dolly Downer.
And, the Chaser dudes arrested again.
Garrett may still get a cabinet position, because he is unaligned and because of that he will make up one of the few positions set aside for centre/unaligned. Whether he keeps environment is another matter, but it might require a deal with the left for it to happen.
Anti-Bush Protesters moon APEC motorcade
September 7, 2007 – 4:20PM
A protest involving around 50 bare-bottomed activists spilled onto Sydney streets today, stalling an APEC motorcade and triggering scuffles with police.
I love it. Non violent but gets the point across and gets media attention.
[Garrett may still get a cabinet position, because he is unaligned ]
I don’t understand why he doesn’t join the left?
Exactly Paul K. It is Garrett’s attitude that uniquely qualifies him for environment. His celeb status can also be useful in selling the difficult measures that may be required to combat dangerous climate change.
Incidentally, criticism of him because he has supported the Tamar pulp mill (subject to worlds best practise), is misguided. Remember he backed the
Visy pulp mill in Tumut – it was worlds best practise. We need to value add in Australia ( or stop using paper).
(This does not mean the mill in the Tamar valley should go ahead if it is likely to cause any damage at all.)
because he sold them out!
I wonder how many of those face to face interviews occur in national party held seats? Oh and there is a morgan senate poll up.
I bet Peter Garrett will do a lot of campaigning in marginal seats. He was quite effective during the Victorian election campaign, helping Labor hold on to the seat of Melbourne.
I believe Labor have strengthened its position in the polls for three reasons:
1. Rudd got really horny so he rang up his journo mate to take him to a strip club. LOL.
2. The Liberals even at this stage don’t have a clue as to their leadership plans.
3. “The buck stops with me” beautifully said PM Rudd.
So how is the election going at the moment? 15 minutes left in the Grand Final, and Labor have just kicked a field goal to go to a 19 point lead – you hear Ray Warrens voice “RUUUDD IS HEADED FOR THE LOOODGE” oh yeah.
Today from APEC: There’s Dubya, he’s come across for APEC from the other side of the world, he gets up on stage, he’s got an APEC sign in front of him, he’s got a massive APEC sign behind him, and so what does he call it? OPEC! How in hell did this bloke ever get to be president of the most powerful nation on earth? He wouldn’t have the intelligence of a circumcised p—- gone wrong!
The country is in deep trouble from the drought. La nina hasn’t produced rain. Country people know that the Coalition has done damn all about global warming, or, if your prefer the Republican version, climate change.
They would do better to vote Greens or Labor or anything but the Coalition if they want their government to take it seriously.
Page is a very good bet $2. Go for it. It should be $1.50.
Peter Garrett won’t join the left as he is conservative.
My taxi driver in Paris told the other guy: “Va te faire encouler”.
That’s what the Australian people, including conservative commentators are saying to John Howard.
[I bet Peter Garrett will do a lot of campaigning in marginal seats.]
He’s already visted Hasluck with Rudd to announce a plan to make Perth a Solar City.
http://www.alp.org.au/media/0807/msCCloo300.php
[ It is Garrett’s attitude that uniquely qualifies him for environment ]
I basically agree with the statement but I’m not convinced on the “uniquely” part. In any case who ever ends up with Environment has got to be better than Howard’s choices so far.
Got back to Australia, landed in Sydney, no Age so I brought the Australian. Photographs on the front page were interesting, they all tell a story, interesting read.
The opinion page, what I joke, this is supposed to be the paper that sets the national agenda?
Dennis Shanahan bleating; I’m sorry I tried to read it from start to finish, it was just too all over the place, and really just a load of drivel.
Janet Albrechtsen. Three column feet to say “I Love you John but piss off”.
Interesting that crikey.com.au gets a mention on page 17 as a source. This is the paper that claims to have it’s finger on the pulse and crikey gets quoted as the source of rumor?
[you hear Ray Warrens voice “RUUUDD IS HEADED FOR THE LOOODGE†oh yeah.]
Or if it was Roy & H.G. “At this stage the ALP has more bums on seats.”
Tony, I think it’s very likely Garrett will be given Environment, assuming a Labor Government. The only original concern in giving him this spokeman position was that it might compromise or embarrass him, with Labor going for centrist solutions and being stuck with Lennon.
I saw him at the National Press Club luncheon the other day and he handled that very well. He’ll be an asset to Labor. I’d take issue with Glen’s claim of invisibility. Word I’ve picked up is that he’s in demand in marginal seats and is well received.
Yeah, a 40-bum salute. Nice work.
Noticed that a lib backbencher, Washer, has said he thinks the PM should adopt a lower profile and let ministers step into the limelight. Interesting.
Does this mean a move to sideline Howard during the campaign, that is, if he doesn’t step down after APEC, which I think he will.
A few points on the latest poll
The rise in the Green vote is no surprise considering the attention the pulp mill was getting last weekend.
All seemed to be going well on that front during the week, until John Howard seemed to get the message wrong on Friday and was forced into a reversal on Sat. (JWH being forced into a reversal by the party is very new)
Bottom line figure is no surprise as the momentum is now so strong against John Howard.
To use the Titanic metaphor again, John Howard is both the iceberg and captain of the ship.
Peter Garrett can’t join the left, his seat was a gift from the right. God knows what he would find in his letterbox or what might happen to the family pet if he crossed them…
On the Nats, I think there has to be justification for saying that nothing will change in the rural areas, because otherwise movements could be missed as Will rightly said happened in Victoria in 1999. People have been saying that the Nats are finished for years, but they have been largely right. This has been a long running decline, but at times the pace has quickened and this could be one of those times. The rapid rise and fall of One Nation shows that the loyalty of their base is nowadays weaker than appears and the large swing going on in safe government seats should be allowed for.
When Channel 9 comes out with a lead story on Howard contemplating quiting its truly ominous signs for the Coalition…
I never thought it possible but once again the media have shown their true colours ‘red’…they’ve somehow turned APEC from being a boost for Howard into a boost for Rudd…
Picking the end of the Nats is like picking the end of a bull market – everyone knows that its going to end, nearly everyone gets the timing wrong – but at the end of the day, the outcome is still “the end”
Can anyone come up with a case in a Westminster system where a government heading for defeat changed leaders at this stage in the electoral cycle and actually won? Can’t think of one myself. Adam (you implied Molesworth reader) can you come up with one?
just sent a email to my local member {alex somalay %10 margin} asking who he will vote for if there is a spill and said it will affect my vote what his answer is. waiting.ps. electorate is fairfax.
[I never thought it possible but once again the media have shown their true colours ‘red’…they’ve somehow turned APEC from being a boost for Howard into a boost for Rudd…]
It was NEVER going to be a boost for Howard! We all knew Howard would stand next to Bush and tell him how fabulous he is, and how wonderful his policies are, even though Bush has lower approval ratings than Truman!
How do you explain Andrew Bolt and Janet Albrechtsen telling Howard to resign? Are you saying they are REDs under the bed?
Mindless post for the evening: Sportingbet has the ALP ahead in the following seats:
Tas: Braddon, Bass
NT: Solomon
SA: Kingston, Makin, Wakefield.
NSW: Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Macquarie
WA: Stirling, Hasluck, (Holding Cowan),
Qld: Bonner, Moreton, Blair
Libs still ahead in Wentworth and Bennelong. Pro ALP swing of about 6% in Qld indicated but it only yeilds the ALP three seats, that said change of the week was that Blair (Qld) firmed up as an ALP gain, also odds on an ALP gain narrowed most markedly in Sturt (SA), Boothby (SA), Bowman (Qld) and Herbert (Qld). The Libs are still ahead in all these four seats.
Portlandhouse gives a broader selection of seats and indicates a similar trend. It’s slowing that a stronger swing is building in NSW with the odds of an ALP victory shortening in Page, Hughes, Greenway and Robertson also.
Perth and Vic appear to be the weak spots for the ALP. Rural WA is better for the ALP and betting is indicating a strengthening ALP swing in Kalgoorlie. The marginal seats around Perth all have the ALP ahead but by a very small margin (Stirling and Cowan are very, very close). Vic appears to be no change.
On a seat by seat basis, at this point, it’s a long way from a “Ruddslide”.
The OZ today was slagging off the Fairfax press for not taking APEC seriously. Haven’t bought the Age this week as I have been collecting nature DVD’s for the young psephs from the Hun. The OZ should closer to home as the Hun hasn’t been too nice about APEC either. It surely can’t help JWH to be so closely associated with GWB at this time.
libsrok
I live in Fairfax as well, don’t expect an answer from Alex Somlyay. All he ever gives is the somlyay report (once a year) and a fridge magnet at chrissy. He was with Coonan today announcing a dud broadband proposal. 2 wimax base stations. 🙁
149
Howard Hater Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Assuming Rudd wins a fair sized majority, the likes of Bill Shorten, Bob Debus and Maxine McKew will be in the Cabinet, so Garrett could very well be sidelined to another portfolio.
If Peter is moved anywhere other than the current portfolio, please please please put him into Aboriginal affairs. That is perhaps the one place where he can do as much good, if not more, than where he is now
Finding all the talk of Howard standing down very hard to fathom.
I didn’t expect the end to be so brutal, bloody and as captivating as a car accident.
Or will we all wake up on Oct 28 wondering how he did it again??
Tomorrows papers – in every State- will lead with Howard’s future. He will be gone Monday. Costello will be sworn in. It will be presented as a generational change. Costello will be THE story for the next eight weeks. He will turn left on climate change,on Iraq, in IR and on “sorry” to Aboriginals. He will focus the campaign itself on the economy – the Libs strengths.
If JWH were to resign next week, and there was a swift clean transition to Peter Costello, a major policy shakeup, a few swift political moves, a few ministers that won’t run again (Howard of course, Ruddock, Downer maybe). A this is what we have in store for you folks! Would that be enough to starve the ALP of oxygen for a couple of weeks? The cabinet could stay the same with the promise of change. If it happens on Monday, a bit of biffo in the house maybe whilst the Canadian PM is in town.
Any charge regarding not changing the cabinet could be retorted with ‘who is Kevin going to drop?’ after the big day? Andrew Landeryou was running the line earlier this week that Nicola Roxon was headed for the chop – Bill Shorten or Greg Combet have to replace someone.
[Finding all the talk of Howard standing down very hard to fathom.]
Same here. You never know what will happen during a campaign, with Howard as leader, the result could still close. With anyone else as leader they lose “experience” which is their only remaining asset.
Alpal and I are obviously in sync.
125
Aristotle Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
“The last 30 polls (mid-May till today) show….a 9% swing”
Yes, spot on Aristotle. The swing is pronounced, pervasive and persistent: the kind of thing that marks a turning point in a data series.
This cannot end soon enough for the Liberals, and yet the worst is not over for them. The campaign has been running now for months – the fact that Parliament hasn’t been dissolved is a mere technicality – and the trend in favour of Rudd is consolidating every week. Come the formal end of the campaign, a 9% swing from the Coalition is going to look like a good result for them.
Those bloggers here – and commentators everywhere – who say the polls should narrow when the election is called and that the final result will be closer than the polls suggest should try to defend their claims. These claims rely on the assumption that the polls are aberrant or that people are fickle, that Howard is in fact indestructible or that Rudd is so brittle that he will start to disintegrate for no reason.
Why should this be so? Rudd is out-performing Howard in every sense. Why will this change?
The factors that have driven Howard to the point of political oblivion are still operating and are more likely to eat further into his support than somehow go into reverse.
How very Greek this is, Aristotle: the prince should be at the height of his power, but is on the brink of ruin. He has to suffer: he can see his fate approaching and yet cannot avert it. Trapped by his own identity, he is a participant and a spectator too at his own downfall.
libsrok
I live in Fairfax as well, don’t expect an answer from Alex Somlyay. All he ever gives is the somlyay report (once a year) and a fridge magnet at chrissy. He was with Coonan today announcing a dud broadband proposal. 2 wimax base stations.
ruawake i agree somlyay is a joke. meet over a beer at the coolum bar after the elec. and toast alex downfall if u want. lol
Guys, has anyone ever thought, as per Possums interpretation of CT, that the party knows the defeat is on and that they believe that Howard is more likely to save the majority of seats? Best for the party and all that….
On current form everything the Liberals do fails. So changing leaders to a more unpopular leader. Hmmmm
I can’t see Costello being much good at this late stage if they changed, espicially seeing that Costello has always said that he thought that Work Choices didn’t go far enough.
Grooski – you might be spot on. When it comes to saving the furniture who’s your best bet – Howard.
Howard’s personal numbers have stayed high with a net positive rating even recently. Costello untried Leader and untried campaigner. He’s a stellar Parliamentary performer. It’d be a really tough call to plug the pin on Howard.
WOW 9 News Adelaide “Howard on Shaky Ground”
“Alexander Downer is receiving phone calls from senior front benchers who are concerned that Howard’s leadership is the Government’s main problem. Peter Costello is not leading a charge for change, but is said to be willing to take over if drafted.” – Laurie Oakes
The Nats probably will do better than the Libs proportionately speaking, but they are still looking at a few potential losses: Page and Cowper, possibly Herbert and maybe even Flynn or Gippsland.
The problem for the Nats is that once lost it is much harder for them to regain the seats, as they have to stave off the Libs as well as the ALP.
LD #183
I wouldn’t place too much weight on the seat by seat polls in the early stages/.
1) they must be trailing indicators, depending on the bookies’preconceptions, until a weight of money comes in.
2) It follows that the direction of movement is more important as an indication of punter prefence.. in this case almost uniformly towards ALP.
on this point I was heartened by the movement in Bennelong on CentreBet.. from 2.40 ALP/1.50 Coalition to 2.20/1.59 (Go Maxine!)
That’s 41% prob, up from 38%.