Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.
UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.
Glen, if you think this poll is wrong because of the Nat vote, then any poll showing the Greens below 5% are also wrong. But the Greens often get this and score higher, as do the Nats.
Find another excuse, this one is getting very old.
Grooski
I think you were being ironic when you stated:
“Looking at the figures, the National vote seems to go to the Greens. HAHAHAHA! Is there ever anymore diametrically opposite parties than those two?”
Given the same problems with “small prevalence in small samples” the variance expected could render almost no difference between these parties in the long term. In fact, given the history of National polling trending under actual voting primaries and Greens generally being over-estimated, it may well be that the true picture on the day may have them quite close.
If the ALP does win this election, however, it may allow the Nats to re-group and exert more power in the coalition in the event of a vacuum. Again, the relevance of the Greens, so important from 1996-2006 to the ALP, may decline if the landslide is indeed that strong.
Asanque
I think Glen is at Stage 5
stage 1 – denial (Shanahan)
stage 2 – bargaining (Albrechtsen)
stage 3 – depression (Abbott)
stage 4 – acceptance (Bolt)
stage 5 – hysteria (Downer)
stage 6 – zombie
All whose policies Glen?
I do hope you’re not wasting taxpayer money right now.
Same old tired lines – they haven’t worked up until now, and that ain’t changing Glen.
Beloved by the media?
Would that be by Dennis Shanahan, Janet Albrechtsen, Piers Ackerman, Andrew Bolt, Paul Kelly…and the rest of the “Rudd Huggers”…..boy, you sure are clutchin at straws aren’t ya?
Run by the unions, can’t be trusted…….hey Glen, I’ve got an idea for ya – how about you organise a billboard campaign along the lines of the Latham L-plates one….only this time its Rudd rated “R”….y’know because of the strip club bit your mate Downer thought would bring him Down…..you guys are getting more shrill and desperate by the minute.
some of the huge swing to labor has to be a correction of the Latham effect from the last election then the Rudd effect comes in after that.
Glen
you should check history – go look at some of Keating’s word pre the 96 election.
They sound the same as yours.
The country will not fall over, no matter who wins. The things that will have most effect on our economy will be decided upon away from our shores.
The unions do not run the ALP – why are the state ALP governments constantly at loggerheads with the public service unions and their pay claims, if they are indeed being run by these same unions?
Your arguments are facile and really do not stand up to any scrutiny.
BigBob – well said.
It’s such a tired argument that wastes time which could be spent looking at ….well, reality.
Glen
I realise that what you say is the current Liberal Party line, but it is one of the reasons why they are behind.
People do not want negatives, a majority seem to be saying they are happy with Labor.
The Liberals need to release some real policies, policies that will make people regain confidence in them. Do something real in health, education, infrastructure. Give people some hope in the future, acknowledge that people are doing it tough in many places, understand that not all are feeling prosperous.
In other words stop saying what Labor will do, start saying what they will do.
Check out possum’s latest magnum opus
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/07/capitulation/
Swampy is quite correct – the punters wanted to get rid of Howard last time, but they were spooked by L*th*m, for which they are not to be blamed. But now the tidal wave against Howard will be all the greater for having been pent up for three more years. The analogy here is the UK in 1992 and 1997. They were sick of the Tories in 92, but didn’t like Kinnock, so Major had a surprise win. So by 2007 they were set up for a massacre, which duly occured. Admittedly Howard hasn’t had the policy disasters that Major had, but the analogy is still strong.
Julie way back when… Nielsen is commissioned by the SMH, and usually comes out in their Monday editions. It gets uploaded on-line about 1am Sunday night… pop in here then for some more hubris, gloating, shallow triumphalism and Glen-baiting 8). *
*blog irony
Tell me how Newspoll has the Greens on 3% and Morgan at 9%…
When is the next Galaxy poll due?
If Nielsen has Labor at 56 or above I think Howard will be just about cooked. The question then will be whether Costello, Downer, Turnbull or Abbott is willing to stick the fork in him. I still doubt it, but these are uncharted waters.
Next Galaxy is 24/9 I believe.
Adam, you sound like the ground has shifted since your comments this morning. Surely it can’t be a knifing… too messy. Howard has to orchestrate it and step aside…?
Howard might get cooked, can anyone honestly say that Downer, Abbot, or Costello wouldnt get cremated?
Jas
The swing in WA is on page 11 of part 1 of the report, where there is a summary of swings overall.
It is a bit hard to interpret and I asked Possum about it as it has swing since 2004 as 4% and swing since Beasley as 11%, Possum interpreted this as a swing of around 4.5% in WA, whereas I thought it could mean atotal swing of 11%.
Said to Possum I would ring Crosby to get the correct interpretation, rang a couple of times this sarvo but all I heard was 60 -40, no no it can’t be and much crying before they hung up.
ruawake
I agree with you there on policy and the Coalition…
Now granted the 10b Murray Darling Water Plan has been stalled thanks to the Victorian Labor Party which denied Howard some positive press…but a part from that and i know the Libs have put money into endowment funds and the intervention in the NT which is very smart and good policy but bad politics because they are not really vote winners i mean saying you’re going to put money into funds isnt going to win you votes you’ve got to offer them something and Howard and the Coalition have been virtually devoid of any major policy and been too negative…sure its all well and good to say Labor are inexperienced and cant manage money sure that may be true but you’ve got to start making policy and its even more important for a government of 11 years to do this lest they be viewed as old and tired and old and tired is the current perception hence 60/40.
@ 102 Generic Oracle Says:
The Nats are likely to be much closer in numbers to the Liberals aren’t they? So their influence seems likely to increase.
Is there any chance they could be the senior partner in the coalition? It’s probably not a likely out come, but could it happen.
The Greens could end up with more Senate power could they not? If there is a double dissolution in 2009 or ’10 OR if the Greens win the second senate seat in the ACT. I read this possibility floated somewhere (perhaps here?) is there any chance?
On balance I still think neither hara-kiri nor a knifng on the steps of the Senate (et tu, Malcolm?) is likely. But the prospect of an electoral wipeout does change things rapidly. The chemistry in Parly House next week will be crucial. If the ‘benchers are in a panic, who knows what might happen?
Glen
Labour doesn’t ignore the bush. When the bush has been in trouble with drought or whatever disaster (usually self inflicted) befalls them they have been bailed out as always by whichever party is in power. They just ignore labour even when they are bailed out by them because of their backward outlook on the modern world.
The Bush lobby has always been effective at socialising the losses and privatising the profits. It is the unspoken agenda of the NFF.
Anyway, the nationals showing at 1.5% is no surprise because their vote has been leaking away to the liberals for years. I am surprised it’s that low but even if it doubled to 3%, so what. You are also failing to take into account the greening of coastal rural seats of the years IE Richmond (I believe this was Doug Anthony’s seat).
Max (52) you fret unnecessarily.
1. Rudd is conservative by instinct and methodology.
2. Witness recent long term Labor governments at State level: how many have done anything radical in policy? (Yes, I appreciate that policy checks are not the only rationale for strong oppositions: there’s also accountability of individual executive departments/ministers)
3. Howard has shifted many agendas significantly to the right. In many instances those shifts are entrenched, and Labor will either follow them or merely tinker at the edges. In others, however, it is entirely legitimate that a new government have the power to redraw the rules.
4. Labor will nowhere near control the Senate, however big the swing.
5. A new government is guaranteed 2 terms unless it is utterly helpless: it’s not a question of the size of its majority. If anything, a big Labor majority in ’07 will at least allow the next Liberal team the boost of a swing back to it in ’10.
I very much agree with the sentiments of Sideline Eye. It is about time that people who argue that these numbers are not feasible justify that view other than it not ever happened before. We have had the same glib predictions all year on the polls and they have been wrong. The problem such pundits have now is that whatever way you look at it, something historical is going to happen. Either we will have a historical landslide to Labor or a historically effective campaign by the Liberals. I know which I expect.
Morgan’s attempt to give theories that the electorate will just focus on interest rates and tax cuts during the campaign is just pathetic. People have been saying that all year and it has not happened, why will it happen over the next month? In fact, is it possible that Morgan did not accept the last poll’s closer (but out of line) findings, which is why he took another poll so quickly?
Surely even the most panicked back bencher knows that all of the alternative leaders are LESS popular PPMs than Howard?
Besides, changing horses in the final stride before the jump? That trick never works.
The last 30 polls (mid-May till today) show
ALP 48 L/NP 38.3 Others 13.7
Broken down into sets of 10 polls it indicates that the Others vote has remained the same and the ALP and the Coalition have swapped votes between themselves.
1st 10 polls ALP 48.1 L/NP 38.2 Others 13.7
2nd 10 polls ALP 47.5 L/NP 38.8 Others 13.7
3rd 10 polls ALP 48.3 L/NP 38.0 Others 13.7
This last set of 10 polls (Aug-Sept) would translate into a two party vote of 56.3/43.7 with a 58% preference flow to the ALP. That’s a 9% swing.
On Howard, I think Keating is right, he doesn’t lack courage. My guess he will hang on and I can’t see him stepping aside for anyone. I think this ‘eye on history’ he is supposed to have is rubbish.
Thanks Crispy.
If these numbers are anywhere near being correct it’s going to be very hard for the Libs in the Senate not to give Rudd what he wants as they’ll be terrified of a Double Dissolution. If the Libs get slaughtered this year what future leader will want to go up against Rudd in a DD on an issue like retaining Howards Work Choices legislation.
Good point Arbie, are you and Possum suggesting that page/slide 11 means that Beazley, according to CrosbyTextor polling had actually lost ground from the 2004 Latham result, in the 18-24 years category (6.1%)and WA (6.5%) and even slipped a bit in Tas/NT (0.9%)? Am I crazy or does the swing since beazley being greater than the swing since 04 have another meaning?
I was in the bomber would have won anyway camp, but this makes that theory look pretty dumb?
of course this poll probably understates the nat party vote but does
not understate the total coalition vote. even if 60/40 is wrong by 5% this
is a landslide.
what happens if things do not change and labor MAKES UP ground
during the election campaign?
Jaz
That is what Poss said, it looked a little strange, I will have to have a closer look.
Well possum is the smart one, I’m happy if I can count to two and be sure I have both legs of my stockings intact, and one for each leg.
I’d put money on John Howard offering to resign at the first party room meeting, even more so if the Nielsen poll follows this kind of pattern.
The only way he would not resign is if the poll was an outlier at 53-47 or possibly 54-46. If it is 55-45 or worse for the Coalition then I would put any money on his resignation offer.
It doesn’t mean that they would accept it of course, but I bet they would.
John Howard would then attempt to annoint Peter Costello as his natural heir and I would expect Malcolm Turnbull to also contest.
I would doubt if there would be any other person putting up their hand, not even Julie Bishop! She may be deputy though.
You can guarantee their are counting the numbers over the weekend.
The phones will run red hot.
Labor party supporters can pray for a rogue Nielsen poll!
There is no swing.
The poeple led by John Howard will triumph.
Rudd will surrender, it is Rudd who will surrender.
Everything is just fine.
Jas at 129 – that’s right, the C/T documents suggest the Bomber had lost ground in WA since the 2004 election.
It’s a bit weird this one as it doesnt even come close to matching up with the quarterly newspoll data for WA.All the other states in Oz Track 33 match with the newspoll data, but WA is out there in a different world.
Believe it or not, I’m actually going to agree with Glen.
The National Party will get a higher vote than 1.5%, and hold on to most of their seats.
It’s the Liberals who are headed for a bloodbath.
While Howard is by no means a coward…he’s a man of his words as George W Bush says and if his Party thinks he’s the problem he’ll stand aside…but i think they’ll stick by Howard in the end…and hope for General Wenck to come to the rescue…
If anyone wants a laugh, check this out:
“I CAN SPEAK FRENCH: Downer”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22379129-29277,00.html
“I did the French language course and Mr Rudd did the Chinese language course. I did mine in two months and he did his in two years, that could say something him and me or something about the two languages. I think the former but that sounds a tad partisan.”
What a grub, he is out there point scoring even in the middle of APEC. Doesn’t he have more important things to worry about?
In other news, Downer says he intends to greet the Chinese President in French. 😛
Thanks Possum it also goes a long way to explaining the Libs have held onto the gains in WA theory for so long. The powers that be leaked how badly Labor was doing under Beazley in WA, and forgot to leak the turn around, consequently Lib posters who are on the gossip chain kept up the seats to the Govt in WA theory. Amazing stuff that leak.
I’m ditching my Beazley would have won theory if the WA Beazley number isn’t rogue. And a nice girl like me doesn’t ditch a theory that can’t be disproven on a whim. Boys were created to be ditched on a whim not perfectly good theories huh Mr Mumble.
Mal from Vic (48),
Family First will not be preferencing the Liberals as they did last time.
DLP,
Gough Whitlam was on the right of the ALP and was ready to end the Split, but Jim Cairns came too close in the leadership ballot at the time. The right of the ALP then was not the right of the ALP now, just as the right of the Liberals then was not the right of the Liberals now and the left of the ALp now is not the left of the ALP then.
I think the Nats are in more trouble than the Libs. The vote for them now looks soft to me as in 2001/04 it more relfected taking up the slack of the collapse of One Nation than there own merits. The coalition has a strnge hold on lower income rurual areas which it used to hold more for ideological (anti-union, race) reasons that I don’t think work these days.
Damn Simon, you beat me too it. Downer sounds like a spoilt kid who has his toys taken away from him. It will not win him any votes. Also, we know that even though English is a Germanic language, these days it has a lot of Romantic influences. Also, 2 months sounds like he wasn’t prepared to actually do anything more than learning to count and say hello.
Downer’s going Down
One consequence of the annihilation of the Rodent by the Ratcatcher may be a certain hubris on the part of the Ratcatcher. Something I am concerned about, is whether Garrett will actually end up as Minister for Environment. If he doesn’t there will be a lot of pi**ed people out there.
For me dangerous climate change is the big deal – not Work Choices or interest rates. (Even though paying the mortgage and educating two kids is very difficult at times.)
I live on Lake Alexandrina and you can watch it dry up before your very eyes. This going to have very serious consequences within the next few months.
Garrett has the commitment to drive the serious measures needed, but he will need Rudds’s total backing. If he gets sidelined in Arts or something I will relegate Rudd to no better than Howard.
Glen even with the Nationals at 1.5%. Morgan matches Galaxy and Newspoll. Plus a number of small polls. Morgans last poll was a rogue poll which is possibly why this one came out early.
[I think the Nats are in more trouble than the Libs. ]
I think another reason why is the fact that Backflip Barnaby supported the sale of Telstra – which is a BIG issue in the bush with a lack of phone coverage, crap landline quality and virtually no broadband in many areas.
And before anyone says Wireless will work, let me tell you when there is heavy rain and strong easterly winds coverage will be non-existent.
Tony…Garrett like the rest of Rudd’s front bench is invisible you wont be hearing alot from him during the election campaign…
Chinese, a tonal language, is substantially harder to learn for a native English speaker than French. There is no way a two month course in any language brings you up to fluency, from a low base. How well does Downer actually speak French? Etc, etc, etc.
“I know dozens and dozens of people who speak a lot of languages, they don’t just speak Mandarin, but other languages as well.”
Downer
I have heard that Rudd also speaks good Swahili, no shit.
The death of the National Party is predicted before every election, but they survive. A lot of people in rural seats keep blindly voting for the Nats. There’s no way on earth Labor will win safe National Party seats in N.S.W and Vic. I think the ALP’s best prospects for a gain from the Nats is Page. If there’s a huge landslide, maybe Gippsland is a possibility?
Assuming Rudd wins a fair sized majority, the likes of Bill Shorten, Bob Debus and Maxine McKew will be in the Cabinet, so Garrett could very well be sidelined to another portfolio.
138 Simon,
Maybe Downer may try his French on the Canadian Prime Minister?