Victorian draft state redistribution

Victoria’s Electoral Boundaries Commission has unveiled draft boundaries for its very long awaited state redistribution.

The attention of most politics watchers will be firmly elsewhere, but Victoria’s Electoral Boundaries Commission has unveiled draft boundaries for its very long awaited state redistribution. I’m a bit too distracted to give them any consideration just at the moment, but you can view them here.

UPDATE: Antony Green has more.

New South Wales draft state redistribution

Proposed new state electoral boundaries for New South Wales create a new inner-city seat at the expense of one in the state’s south.

A proposal for a redistribution of New South Wales’ state electoral boundaries has been published, the major change being that the metropolitan area gains a seat at the expense of the rest of the state. The new seat has been created in the inner city, with Marrickville divided between the new seats of Newtown in the east and Summer Hill in the west. Considerable rearrangement in the outer inland suburbs causes Menai, Smithfield and Toongabbie to be respectively renamed Holsworthy, Prospect and Seven Hills.

The abolition of a rural electorate has been achieved by merging Burrinjuck and Murrumbidgee into Cootamundra. Murrumbidgee’s western half is absorbed by Murray, the name of which changes from Murray-Darling to register the transfer of the state’s north-western corner by Barwon. The eastern part of Burrinjuck is absorbed by Goulburn. Part of Goulburn’s territory is in turn absorbed by Wollondilly, with knock-on effects in Sydney’s outer south-west.

Maps of the proposed boundaries can be viewed here. The redistribution commissioners will now receive suggestions and objections to the proposals until July 17.

UPDATE: A proposal for a redistribution of New South Wales’ state electoral boundaries has been published, the major change being that the metropolitan area gains a seat at the expense of the rest of the state. The new seat has been created in the inner city, with Marrickville divided between the new seats of Newtown in the east and Summer Hill in the west. Considerable rearrangement in the outer inland suburbs causes Menai, Smithfield and Toongabbie to be respectively renamed Holsworthy, Prospect and Seven Hills.

The abolition of a rural electorate has been achieved by merging Burrinjuck and Murrumbidgee into Cootamundra. Murrumbidgee’s western half is absorbed by Murray, the name of which changes from Murray-Darling to register the transfer of the state’s north-western corner by Barwon. The eastern part of Burrinjuck is absorbed by Goulburn. Part of Goulburn’s territory is in turn absorbed by Wollondilly, with knock-on effects in Sydney’s outer south-west.

Maps of the proposed boundaries can be viewed here. The redistribution commissioners will now receive suggestions and objections to the proposals until July 17.

UPDATE: Antony Green has published his estimated margins. The change from Toongabbie to Seven Hills has been particularly significant, creating a seat with a notional Liberal margin of 8.5% (through the absorption of Northmead and Winston Hills from Baulkham Hills) from one that had been safe enough for Labor that Nathan Rees was able to retain it in the 2011 landslide. The Liberals have been strengthened in Campbelltown, Oatley and Wollondilly, but Holsworthy is weaker for the Liberals than Menai which it replaces – and of course there is now one less conservative electorate in the country and one extra “left” electorate in the city.

South Australia redistributed

Drowned out by the news of the Olympic Dam expansion being shelved yesterday was the release of the final report of South Australia’s state electoral redistribution. This is a fairly dry topic at the best of times, this one at first promised to be reasonably interesting, as state redistributions go. South Australia’s redistribution commissioners, who perform their work between every election, have uniquely been given direction to seek “electoral fairness” ever since a provision to that effect was inserted in the legislation after Labor’s lucky escape in 1989, when John Bannon won a third and final election from a base of 48.1% of the two-party vote.

Successive redistributions have sought to achieve this by drawing boundaries that would deliver victory at the subsequent election to the party with the greater share of the two-party vote, assuming a perfectly even swing. This eminently rational approach could not overcome the basic flaw of the endeavour, which is that election results can never be so neatly predicated on the basis of what happened last time. The 2010 election was a remarkable case in point, with 22 of the state’s 47 seats recording double-digit swings against Labor, but the two most marginal Labor seats actually swinging in their favour (the only ones to do so). Labor was thus able to suffer a net loss of just two seats in the face of a plunge in their two-party vote from 56.8% to 48.4%, emerging with a solid majority of 26 out of 47.

That left the redistribution commissioners with a formidable task in drawing boundaries which met the electoral fairness requirement as it had previously been conceived. From a psephological perspective, the contortions required to burden marginal seat Labor MPs with the requisite Liberal-voting areas, assuming there were any nearby, promised to be something to behold. Instead, the draft boundaries published in May showed the commissioners had simply thrown up their hands and dispensed with the Mackerras-pendulum derived notion of “fairness” which had previously been applied. Their rationale for doing so makes for interesting reading, as it essentially argues that the Liberals’ defeat was down to political failings a redistribution can’t be expected to account for:

As many of the seats held by Labor were marginal, little would have been required for an effective campaign to influence the final result … Had the Liberal Party achieved a uniform swing it would have formed government. As quoted (in the findings of the 1991 Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission), “The Commission has no control over, and can accept no responsibility for, the quality of the candidates, policies and campaigns.”

That being so, the commissioners turned in an extremely conservative set of changes, and despite the protestations of the Liberal Party there has been no fundamental change in the final determination. However, the Liberals have been thrown the following bones:

• Bright has been given extra territory from its Liberal northern neighbour Morphett, turning Labor member Chloe Fox’s 0.3% margin in the original redistribution to a deficit of 0.1%. The Liberal margin in Morphett, which also cedes territory to Elder (see below), is accordingly down from 11.1% to 9.9%.

• Elder is redrawn in relation to its Liberal neighbours Morphett and Waite, cutting Pat Conlon’s margin from 3.4% to 1.7%.

• Waite also cedes territory to Ashford, so as to cut Stephanie Key’s margin in the latter electorate from 4.4% to 1.5%. The Liberal margin in Waite is reduced from 13.0% to 11.1%.

• Grace Portolesi’s 1.9% margin in Hartley has been cut to 0.5% by adding extra territory from neighbouring Bragg, where Vickie Chapman’s Liberal margin of 21.0% goes to 20.0%.

The redistribution is otherwise as described by Antony Green when the draft boundaries were published, the most notable changes being a boost in Labor’s margin in Little Para from 6.7% to 10.9% with the addition of territory in Elizabeth, the Liberal margin in Morialta dropping from 4.2% to 2.9%, and Norwood being renamed Dunstan in honour of its esteemed former member.

WA state redistribution: draft boundaries

UPDATE: The draft boundaries can now be viewed here. See below for my estimated margins.

Draft boundaries for the Western Australian state electoral redistribution are unveiled today, and should be up on the official website in an hour or two. I can reveal the redistribution commissioners have gone the “minimalist” route: the metropolitan/country imbalance has been solved not by creating a new metropolitan seat, but by expanding the metropolitan area southwards to encompass Mandurah. This means that individual electoral boundaries have been changed as little possible. There have been a few name changes: Nollamara will become Mirrabooka, Mindarie will become Butler, North West will become North West Central and Blackwood-Stirling becomes Warren-Blackwood. I’m currently working on estimated new margins and will have these up shortly. Antony Green will be following the action here.

UPDATE: Estimated margins, take one. I cut a few corners with the methodology to get it done quickly, so this is subject to amendment. The only seat which has changed colours is North West Central (formerly North West), and here the situation is complicated. Labor won the seat in 2008 by 3.1 per cent, but I believe they would not have done so if the Nationals rather than the Liberals had finished second – and they only fell 67 votes short of doing so. Since then the Labor member, Vince Catania, has defected to the Nationals. So the margin below assumes a Labor-versus-Liberal result in what will almost certainly be a Labor-versus-Nationals contest, in which Catania is likely to be sitting pretty.

UPDATE 2: I tell a lie: Morley has nudged into the Labor column. Their defeat here in 2008 was an exceptional circumstance resulting from the former Labor member running as an independent and directing preferences to the Liberals, so whatever else goes wrong at the election they would be very hopeful of winning this one back.

UPDATE 3: Antony Green has his margins up: I believe I beat him by a matter of seconds. I’m pleased to say they look very much the same as mine, so it seems I’ve done it right.

LIB-NAT 2PP
NEW OLD SHIFT
Albany 49.8% 49.8% 0.0%
Alfred Cove* 65.0% 65.5% -0.6%
Armadale 35.2% 35.2% 0.0%
Balcatta 47.9% 47.7% 0.2%
Bassendean 39.9% 39.7% 0.2%
Bateman 59.0% 61.4% -2.4%
Belmont 43.6% 43.3% 0.4%
Bunbury 60.5% 61.7% -1.2%
Butler (Mindarie) 39.3% 41.5% -2.2%
Cannington 41.0% 41.0% 0.0%
Carine 62.5% 64.5% -2.0%
Central Wheatbelt 71.1% 70.5% 0.5%
Churchlands* 72.9% 73.5% -0.6%
Cockburn 41.1% 40.4% 0.7%
Collie-Preston 46.2% 49.0% -2.8%
Cottesloe 69.4% 69.4% 0.0%
Darling Range 57.1% 55.6% 1.5%
Dawesville 61.1% 61.1% 0.0%
Eyre 71.8% 69.2% 2.6%
Forrestfield 49.8% 49.8% 0.0%
Fremantle 38.9% 38.0% 0.9%
Geraldton 58.5% 58.5% 0.0%
Girrawheen 42.9% 38.5% 4.4%
Gosnells 45.2% 44.5% 0.7%
Hillarys 60.3% 61.4% -1.0%
Jandakot 52.5% 51.8% 0.6%
Joondalup 48.1% 46.5% 1.6%
Kalamunda 56.3% 56.3% 0.0%
Kalgoorlie* 51.9% 59.8% -7.9%
Kimberley 43.2% 43.2% 0.0%
Kingsley 54.6% 54.5% 0.1%
Kwinana 32.5% 32.4% 0.1%
Mandurah 39.5% 39.5% 0.0%
Maylands 41.1% 41.0% 0.1%
Midland 41.7% 41.7% 0.0%
Mirrabooka (Nollamara) 37.5% 37.3% 0.3%
Moore 73.8% 72.0% 1.8%
Morley 48.7% 50.9% -2.2%
Mount Lawley 51.8% 52.2% -0.4%
Murray-Wellington 58.1% 58.4% -0.3%
Nedlands 66.8% 66.3% 0.6%
North West Central (North West) 51.2% 46.9% 4.4%
Ocean Reef 54.3% 54.4% -0.1%
Perth 42.4% 42.2% 0.2%
Pilbara 41.4% 46.4% -5.0%
Riverton 51.7% 50.2% 1.6%
Rockingham 39.0% 39.4% -0.4%
Scarborough 56.0% 55.2% 0.8%
South Perth 64.3% 64.3% 0.0%
Southern River 51.7% 51.6% 0.0%
Swan Hills 53.5% 53.5% 0.0%
Vasse 67.3% 63.5% 3.8%
Victoria Park 41.0% 41.0% 0.0%
Wagin 76.4% 77.4% -0.9%
Wanneroo 50.6% 50.7% -0.1%
Warnbro 39.9% 40.3% -0.4%
Warren-Blackwood (B-Stirling) 58.5% 64.0% -5.5%
West Swan 45.6% 45.6% 0.0%
Willagee 34.5% 35.4% -0.9%

* Seat held by independent, but margins show are ALP versus L-NP.

Queensland redistributed

The Electoral Commission of Queensland has unveiled proposed new boundaries for a state electoral redistribution. Eight seats have been abolished: Labor-held Fitzroy, Kurwongbah and Mount Gravatt, the Nationals seats of Charters Towers, Darling Downs and Cunningham, the Liberal seat of Robina, and the last remaining One Nation seat, Tablelands. The new seats are Buderim, Coomera, Dalby, Macrossan, Mermaid Beach, Morayfield, Samsonvale and Sunnybank. I don’t think I’ll have time to dissect the implications myself, but hopefully the Poll Bludger readership can shed some light on matters in comments (indeed, they have already done so in the previous federal thread). We will hopefully also be hearing from Antony Green later today.

UPDATE: Antony Green in comments offers the following notional margins for seats outside the south-east:

OLD NEW
Beaudesert
4.5 5.9
Bundaberg
1.0 1.0
Barron River
5.1 4.6
Buderim
NEW 9.0
Burdekin
2.4 0.9
Burnett
7.6 7.4
Cairns
8.1 7.9
Callide
22.3 19.8
Caloundra
4.4 2.2
Cook
15.1 10.9
Dalby
NEW 18.6
Glass House
7.7 0.2
Gregory
18.0 12.6
Hervey Bay
1.8 2.1
Hinchinbrook
3.7 2.0
Kawana
5.7 2.6
Keppel
7.2 7.1
Lockyer
1.7 3.4
Mackay
17.6 17.0
Macrossan
NEW 7.4
Maroochydore
10.7 8.4
Mirani
6.5 1.3
Mt Isa
12.3 8.5
Mulgrave
9.9 9.7
Mundingburra
10.5 11.2
Pumicestone
5.4 5.4
Rockhampton
20.5 19.8
Southern Downs
20.3 20.4
Thruringowa
17.0 16.8
Toowoomba North
10.4 7.6
Toowoomba South
9.6 11.3
Townsville
9.1 9.4
Warrego
23.3 22.7
Whitsunday
4.4 0.4

Some quick notes on various seats derived from reading of various sources, including a very good contribution from reader Northern Oracle in comments.

New electorates:

Buderim. A new seat to accommodate the population explosion on the Sunshine Coast, likely to prove a gift to the Liberals.

Coomera. New Gold Coast electorate formed largely from Albert, along with part of Broadwater. Minus a sitting Labor member, likely to be won by the Liberals.

Dalby. Formed in large part from two abolished Nationals seats, Cunningham and Darling Downs. The latter was originally won by Ray Hopper as an independent in 2001, but he later joined the Nationals. Cunningham MP Stuart Copeland is spoken of as a future leadership contender, and could conceivably end up with Hopper running against him as an independent (further update: the Courier-Mail reports Hopper might be marshalled against independent Dolly Pratt in Nanango.

Macrossan. Formed in equal part from abolished Charters Towers and Tablelands, which could put their respective sitting members – Shane Knuth of the Nationals and Rosa Lee Long of One Nation – head to head at the next election.

Mermaid Beach. Formed largely from the remains of Robina, this new seat seems likely to be the new home of the Liberal member, Ray Stevens.

Morayfield. A new electorate created in the northern Brisbane growth corridor mostly out of Kallangur, which shifts southwards. Should have a solid notional Labor margin.

Samsonvale. This is essentially a successor to abolished Kurwongbah, so its member Linda Lavarch (who has already confirmed she will seek the seat) can presumably rest easy unless there is an unrelated threat to her preselection.

Sunnybank. Largely constituted of abolished Mount Gravatt, held for Labor by Judy Spence with a margin of 12.9 per cent. Anna Bligh confirms Spence will be offered the nomination for Sunnybank.

Significantly changed Labor electorates:

Mudgeeraba. Labor member Dianne Reilly, who won by 2.9 per cent in 2006, faces the unwelcome addition of large Liberal-voting areas from abolished Robina.

Glass House. Won by Labor’s Carolyn Male by 7.7 per cent in 2006, Antony Green reckons this seat might have become marginal Nationals.

Pumicestone. Northern Oracle in comments says this seat, which Labor’s Carryn Sullivan holds by 5.4 per cent, has been made stronger for the Liberals by absorbing parts of abolished Kallangur.

Whitsunday. The loss of the one-time Communist stronghold of Bowen will take a bite out of Labor’s uncomfortable 4.4 per cent margin.

Greenslopes. Absorption of parts of abolished Mount Gravatt will produce a potentially significant cut in the 10.1 per cent Labor margin.

Mt Isa. Held for Labor by Betty Kiernan by 12.3 per cent in 2006, population decline has required the addition of pastoral areas to the east and south, which by my reckoning have cut the margin to around 8 per cent (no doubt explaining the fuss Labor is making over the geographic size of the electorate, which might make the ECQ consider amendments). Given the lead contamination issue in Mt Isa itself, that’s clearly enough to bring the seat into play.

Inala. A shift southwards for this southern Brisbane seat should dent the 26.3 per cent Labor margin, but not by enough to make life interesting.

Other Labor-held seats that have credibly been said to have become more difficult: Aspley, Indooroopilly and Chatsworth.

Significantly changed non-Labor electorates:

Burdekin. Antony Green says Labor now has a slight advantage in this Nationals-held marginal, which Rosemary Menkens won in 2006 by 2.4 per cent.

Clayfield. Labor has been strengthened in this Liberal-held Brisbane marginal, which Tim Nicholls gained for the Liberals from former minister Liddy Clark in 2006 by a margin of 1.7 per cent.

Mirani. Essentially merged with Labor-held Fitzroy, thereby cutting deep into Nationals member Ted Malone’s 6.5 per cent margin. The abolition of Fitzroy had been anticipated in advance, prompting member Jim Pearce to announce his retirement. However, the loss of the maverick Pearce’s high personal vote means any notional margin would probably flatter Labor.

Nanango. Addition of unfamiliar territory could undermine One Nation-turned-independent member Dolly Pratt, who held off a Nationals challenge from Joh-Bjelke Petersen’s son John in 2006 by 4.2 per cent. The Courier-Mail reports Pratt might face Ray Hopper, whose seat of Darling Downs has been abolished.

UPDATE (26/5/08): Full details and adjusted margins from Antony Green.

UPDATE (27/5/08): More from David Fraser at Graham Young’s Ambit Gambit.

Apple sliced

This post began life as an addendum to my post on the Dennis Shanahan article, which read as follows:

In other news, the AEC has commenced a redistribution for Tasmania, it having gone the maximum seven years without one. The AEC’s figures respectively put enrolment in Bass, Denison and Lyons at 1.2 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent below average, with Braddon and Franklin 1.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent above. So the redistribution will presumably involve a transfer of territory from Franklin to Lyons, which is unlikely to make much difference to anyone’s electoral prospects. Changes to the more sensitive Bass and Braddon are likely to be negligible. Uniquely, Tasmanian boundary changes have effect at both federal and state level.

I am promoting it partly because my contention that it will be of little electoral consequence has been disputed by Scotty in comments:

The most likely booths to go to Lyons are probably Labor’s best larger booths in Franklin. Bridgewater, Gagebrook and maybe even Risdon Vale if moved to Lyons would significantly shrink the margin in Franklin. In turn this would make Lyons much safer. This may result in a preselection in Lyons as Dick Adams’ personal vote is no longer needed to win that seat.

Furthermore, it has belatedly come to my notice that the Tasmanian Electoral Commission has published proposed boundaries for a redistribution of the state’s 15 upper house districts. Given the lack of party competition in upper house elections, it’s hard to say what the significance of this is, if any. I do have a question though for Tasmanian state politics buffs: given that the upper house never dissolves, when and how do the changes take effect?

More on the redistribution from Peter Tucker.

Beautiful one day

A few items worth noting from the Queensland state scene:

• The state’s Electoral Commission has published preliminary submissions for the redistribution currently under way. The proposed redistribution report is still a few months away.

• Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has published an interesting Galaxy poll of 800 respondents showing Anna Bligh with a 68 per cent approval rating, compared with just 12 per cent for Nationals leader Jeff Seeney. The poll puts Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45. It also found Mal Brough favoured by 32 per cent to lead the state Liberals against 8 per cent each for the recently departed Bruce Flegg and his replacement Mark McArdle, and 7 per cent for thwarted contender Tim Nicholls. McArdle doesn’t seem too upset at the prospect of being replaced by Brough, though it’s far from clear whether Brough is really interested in state politics.

• A recent Queensland Newspoll got overlooked in my earlier post on state results, so here’s a chart showing the two-party preferred score going back to 2004. I have gone for a time-series X axis on this occasion, which is messier but more accurate.

WA redistributed (slight return)

The Western Australian electoral redistribution commissioners have unveiled the final boundaries for the state’s momentous one-vote one-value redistribution. A number of amendments have been made to the proposals unveiled in June, most of them in the East Metropolitan region:

• Central Kelmscott, which was originally to have been in Darling Range, will now be in Armadale so that boundaries conform with the Wungong Urban Water area. In exchange, the southern part of Armadale as originally proposed (Wungong and Mount Richon) will go to Darling Range.

• The exclusion of the part of Gosnells containing the town centre and council offices from the electorate of that name – described in the Boundaries Commission report as an “oversight” – has been corrected by having the northern boundary follow the Canning River (barring a small strip east of Albany Highway). This has involved a gain of territory from Kalamunda and a loss to Forrestfield.

• To allow greater conformity with suburban boundaries, Kalamunda takes part of Gooseberry Hill from Forrestfield and Darlington from Midland, while losing Glen Forrest to Swan Hills. Midland is compensated by taking Guildford from Belmont.

• The boundary between Swan Hills and Darling Range has been redrawn so that Mundaring and Mahogany Creek are in Swan Hills, while Mount Helena, Chidlow and The Lakes are in Darling Range.

Elsewhere:

• In Mining and Pastoral, the electorate name of Kalgoorlie will now be retained, after it was originally proposed it be changed to Goldfields. The boundaries have been adjusted to include the huge but mostly empty eastern part of the Shire of Ngaanyatjarraku, originally to have been in Pilbara. UPDATE: It seems I speak too soon – the ABC points out that the seat becomes “more marginal after taking in the small community of Warburton”. Its enrolment increases from 12,756 to 13,656, and the 900 newcomers should cut the margin to a little over 5 per cent. So the big loser from the final determination is Matt Birney.

• In South Metropolitan, tiny adjustments have been made to Riverton’s boundaries with Jandakot to the south-west and Cannington to the north-east, so that Leeming is in Jandakot and all of Riverton is in Riverton. Three adjustments have been made to the safe Labor electorates in the southern coastal corridor: there has been a minuscule swap between Fremantle and Cockburn, and a bigger but no more consequential addition of East Rockingham to Rockingham from Kwinana.

• In the South West region, the proposed district of Murray will instead be called Murray-Wellington, reviving a name that existed prior to the 2005 election. There has also been an adjustment to its boundary with Mandurah, which absorbs 671 voters at South Yunderup.

I’ll leave the calculations to Antony Green (whose margin calculations for the boundaries as originally proposed can be seen here), but my rough reckoning is that the adjustments are slightly favourable for Labor, who had done pretty well to begin with. They get a handy boost in Forrestfield (original notional margin 3.8 per cent) and Darling Range (0.5 per cent), and are harmed just slightly in Kalamunda (0.2 per cent) and Swan Hills (3.9 per cent). The Murray to Mandurah transfer is perhaps of slight benefit of the Liberals, cutting into Labor’s initial 8.2 per cent margin in Mandurah. The Liberal margin of 6.3 per cent in Murray was probably understated due to the strong personal vote of Labor’s Mick Murray (member for Collie-Wellington) in much of the affected area, and it is unlikely the seat will be keenly contested at the next election.

I also had occasion some time ago to calculate the results that the new upper house arrangements would have produced with the 2005 election figures. Most interestingly, the lower quota in South Metropolitan (which will go from five seats to six) would have delivered a seat to narrowly unsuccessful preference harvesters the Fremantle Hospital Support Group. Results from the 2005 election shown in brackets.

ALP LIB NAT GRN FHS
East Metropolitan 3 (3) 2 (2) 1 (0)
North Metropolitan 2 (3) 3 (3) 1 (1)
South Metropolitan 3 (3) 2 (2) 1 (0)
South West 3 (3) 3 (3) 0 (1)
Agricultural 2 (1) 3 (3) 1 (1)
Mining and Pastoral 3 (3) 3 (2)
TOTAL 16 (16) 16 (15) 1 (1) 2 (2) 1 (0)