UPDATE: The draft boundaries can now be viewed here. See below for my estimated margins.
Draft boundaries for the Western Australian state electoral redistribution are unveiled today, and should be up on the official website in an hour or two. I can reveal the redistribution commissioners have gone the “minimalist” route: the metropolitan/country imbalance has been solved not by creating a new metropolitan seat, but by expanding the metropolitan area southwards to encompass Mandurah. This means that individual electoral boundaries have been changed as little possible. There have been a few name changes: Nollamara will become Mirrabooka, Mindarie will become Butler, North West will become North West Central and Blackwood-Stirling becomes Warren-Blackwood. I’m currently working on estimated new margins and will have these up shortly. Antony Green will be following the action here.
UPDATE: Estimated margins, take one. I cut a few corners with the methodology to get it done quickly, so this is subject to amendment. The only seat which has changed colours is North West Central (formerly North West), and here the situation is complicated. Labor won the seat in 2008 by 3.1 per cent, but I believe they would not have done so if the Nationals rather than the Liberals had finished second – and they only fell 67 votes short of doing so. Since then the Labor member, Vince Catania, has defected to the Nationals. So the margin below assumes a Labor-versus-Liberal result in what will almost certainly be a Labor-versus-Nationals contest, in which Catania is likely to be sitting pretty.
UPDATE 2: I tell a lie: Morley has nudged into the Labor column. Their defeat here in 2008 was an exceptional circumstance resulting from the former Labor member running as an independent and directing preferences to the Liberals, so whatever else goes wrong at the election they would be very hopeful of winning this one back.
UPDATE 3: Antony Green has his margins up: I believe I beat him by a matter of seconds. I’m pleased to say they look very much the same as mine, so it seems I’ve done it right.
| LIB-NAT 2PP | |||
| NEW | OLD | SHIFT | |
| Albany | 49.8% | 49.8% | 0.0% |
| Alfred Cove* | 65.0% | 65.5% | -0.6% |
| Armadale | 35.2% | 35.2% | 0.0% |
| Balcatta | 47.9% | 47.7% | 0.2% |
| Bassendean | 39.9% | 39.7% | 0.2% |
| Bateman | 59.0% | 61.4% | -2.4% |
| Belmont | 43.6% | 43.3% | 0.4% |
| Bunbury | 60.5% | 61.7% | -1.2% |
| Butler (Mindarie) | 39.3% | 41.5% | -2.2% |
| Cannington | 41.0% | 41.0% | 0.0% |
| Carine | 62.5% | 64.5% | -2.0% |
| Central Wheatbelt | 71.1% | 70.5% | 0.5% |
| Churchlands* | 72.9% | 73.5% | -0.6% |
| Cockburn | 41.1% | 40.4% | 0.7% |
| Collie-Preston | 46.2% | 49.0% | -2.8% |
| Cottesloe | 69.4% | 69.4% | 0.0% |
| Darling Range | 57.1% | 55.6% | 1.5% |
| Dawesville | 61.1% | 61.1% | 0.0% |
| Eyre | 71.8% | 69.2% | 2.6% |
| Forrestfield | 49.8% | 49.8% | 0.0% |
| Fremantle | 38.9% | 38.0% | 0.9% |
| Geraldton | 58.5% | 58.5% | 0.0% |
| Girrawheen | 42.9% | 38.5% | 4.4% |
| Gosnells | 45.2% | 44.5% | 0.7% |
| Hillarys | 60.3% | 61.4% | -1.0% |
| Jandakot | 52.5% | 51.8% | 0.6% |
| Joondalup | 48.1% | 46.5% | 1.6% |
| Kalamunda | 56.3% | 56.3% | 0.0% |
| Kalgoorlie* | 51.9% | 59.8% | -7.9% |
| Kimberley | 43.2% | 43.2% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley | 54.6% | 54.5% | 0.1% |
| Kwinana | 32.5% | 32.4% | 0.1% |
| Mandurah | 39.5% | 39.5% | 0.0% |
| Maylands | 41.1% | 41.0% | 0.1% |
| Midland | 41.7% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| Mirrabooka (Nollamara) | 37.5% | 37.3% | 0.3% |
| Moore | 73.8% | 72.0% | 1.8% |
| Morley | 48.7% | 50.9% | -2.2% |
| Mount Lawley | 51.8% | 52.2% | -0.4% |
| Murray-Wellington | 58.1% | 58.4% | -0.3% |
| Nedlands | 66.8% | 66.3% | 0.6% |
| North West Central (North West) | 51.2% | 46.9% | 4.4% |
| Ocean Reef | 54.3% | 54.4% | -0.1% |
| Perth | 42.4% | 42.2% | 0.2% |
| Pilbara | 41.4% | 46.4% | -5.0% |
| Riverton | 51.7% | 50.2% | 1.6% |
| Rockingham | 39.0% | 39.4% | -0.4% |
| Scarborough | 56.0% | 55.2% | 0.8% |
| South Perth | 64.3% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
| Southern River | 51.7% | 51.6% | 0.0% |
| Swan Hills | 53.5% | 53.5% | 0.0% |
| Vasse | 67.3% | 63.5% | 3.8% |
| Victoria Park | 41.0% | 41.0% | 0.0% |
| Wagin | 76.4% | 77.4% | -0.9% |
| Wanneroo | 50.6% | 50.7% | -0.1% |
| Warnbro | 39.9% | 40.3% | -0.4% |
| Warren-Blackwood (B-Stirling) | 58.5% | 64.0% | -5.5% |
| West Swan | 45.6% | 45.6% | 0.0% |
| Willagee | 34.5% | 35.4% | -0.9% |
* Seat held by independent, but margins show are ALP versus L-NP.
I’ve been something of a lurker around here for a while, and I think William should be congratulated for the great job he does.
Although the proposals don’t look anything like what I proposed, I’m probably not surprised that they went the “Minimalist” route. It’s pretty clear they don’t want major disruption after the redraw last time. It’s a pity though, since all they’re really doing is delaying the inevitable until 2015. Metropolitan Perth will continue to grow at the expense of rural WA, and in four years’ time they might have to abolish 2 or more seats in rural WA to balance the numbers. They’ve also had to fiddle the boundaries in the northern suburbs quite a bit to make the numbers work, and it looks pretty ugly in some parts. Some of their South West proposals are a bit messy too.
A few of my ideas got up, but this looks like a rare case of where the Committee has followed the submissions of the major parties pretty closely.
[
HIGH-PROFILE West Australian Labor frontbencher John Quigley will lose his seat under proposed changes to the state’s electorate boundaries.
The member for Mindarie will be forced to contest the new seat of Butler if boundary changes outlined today go ahead.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/labor-mp-john-quigley-set-to-lose-seat-in-wa-boundary-changes/story-fn3dxity-1226073057159
How do they come to this conclusion?
So franky I promised a train put photos of trains at polling
Booths but I don’t remember good alban gets to escape ellenbrook he failed and more more into the banjo hills get Rita.
Thanks William. Look’s good.
What’s with Fremantle not getting an asterisk?
Move more into the banjo hills and ellenbrook gets Rita, you know what I mean
Thanks William.
Alban must be happy after the rail line debacle.
A shame that Catania will get back in…
Alban faces, surely he has been bad enough to deserve it, the risk that someone justifies a challenge to his preselection based on Swan hills now really becoming a swan valley and hills seat. There must be half a dozen valley / hills libs who’d be less of a liability than Alban.
They could give him a run in west swan!!!!
Alban would be laughing – Ellenbrook must feel cheated, especially given the Liberals proposed that ellenbrook be transferred out of Alban’s seat.
[
mundine
Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 4:07 pm | Permalink
Thanks William.
Alban must be happy after the rail line debacle.
A shame that Catania will get back in…
7
WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 4:13 pm | Permalink
Alban faces, surely he has been bad enough to deserve it, the risk that someone justifies a challenge to his preselection based on Swan hills now really becoming a swan valley and hills seat. There must be half a dozen valley / hills libs who’d be less of a liability than Alban.
8
WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 4:15 pm | Permalink
They could give him a run in west swan!!!!
9
obama08
Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 4:55 pm | Permalink
Alban would be laughing – Ellenbrook must feel cheated, especially given the Liberals proposed that ellenbrook be transferred out of Alban’s seat
]
Oh he is – it is his get oput of jail card – but guerss what – he has to move offices – it is in the main street of Ellenbrook.
[7
WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 4:13 pm | Permalink
Alban faces, surely he has been bad enough to deserve it, the risk that someone justifies a challenge to his preselection based on Swan hills now really becoming a swan valley and hills seat. There must be half a dozen valley / hills libs who’d be less of a liability than Alban.
]
Put it this way Steve Blizard in 2005 made Alban look like a Rhopde Scholar – Alban was the classic “Accidental Member” due to Jaye Radisich’e Retirtement and how her replacement was pre-selectted.
Badically Frank has done nothing for the Hills except get a curfewe lifted on Heavy Trucks – which isn’t that popular, plus dealing with Crime in Mundaring – all his efforts have been in Ellenbrook – and they aren’t happy.
Agree that the ALP should not have lost the seat last time out. Actually, shouldn’t have lost the election at all come to think of it.
Radisiche did the party no favours in the way she handled her departure.
[mundine
Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 6:24 pm | Permalink
Agree that the ALP should not have lost the seat last time out. Actually, shouldn’t have lost the election at all come to think of it.
Radisiche did the party no favours in the way she handled her departure.
]
Exactly, Adn she was my local member FFS – She spat the dummy and basically did sFA to support the candidate – in fact on Electon Day she was handing out HTV cards for Michelle Roberts – well to be fair she was technically in her seat living in Woodbridge – on the border.
The West’s take on the redistribution 🙂
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/9620372/electoral-map-redraws-labor-landscape/
If Labor don’t have a great election next time, they could come third behind the Nats and Greens in Warren-Blackwood (maybe even fourth, depending on how seriously the Libs take the seat). Between Margaret River, Balingup, Denmark and everywhere in between, there’s pretty much every hippy town in the south-west collected in the one seat. I would imagine the improved Labor margin (artificial – they didn’t come second in 2008 either) comes mostly from a much better Green vote.
I wonder if Margaret Quirk could be in some trouble in Girawheen, where her margain has been cut in half. Lost a solid Labor district (Balga) and got a couple of the mortgage belt suburbs from Waneroo. She still has 6.7% but given how much Labor is on the nose, would hate to see one of Labor’s better performers defeated.
My 2 least favourite MPs (Catania and Mike Nahan) have both been given a boost which is a real shame. Particularly Catania, a Labor rat and one of the least talented MPs in the country.
@15
So that area around Margaret River is very strong for the Greens (hence Labor)?
Well that answers one question I’d had. I did wonder why Labor was making such a fuss over two supposedly safe Coalition seats (Vasse and B-S), and why they were so determined to argue for splitting Busselton and returning to the confusing pre-2007 configuration of Vasse.
If the demographics were working against the Liberals in Vasse then that explains a lot, although not sure any set of boundaries would have helped given Labor’s poor polling. Those Green-friendly areas are pretty much “wasted” for Labor now in W-B, although if a rural seat is abolished next time, we might see them return to Vasse.
Mark, I haven’t looked at this too closely, but I suggest any designs Labor had for Vasse and Blackwood-Stirling were knock-on effects from their real objectives, which were a) to stay competitive in Collie-Preston, and b) to have Albany transferred from the South West upper house region to Agricultural. The latter would have been an easier sell if Blackwood-Stirling (which is in South West) moved westwards, allowing Albany to have a longer shared boundary with Wagin (which is in Agricultural). But the commissioners didn’t buy this, so Agricultural continues to have only four lower house districts and 90,725 voters to account for its six upper house members – compared with about 350,000 for the metropolitan regions. Those 90,725 voters are represented by 10 members of parliament, nine of whom are Liberal or National.
I must admit that, not being a resident of WA, I don’t fully “get” the Upper House.
But on the proposed boundaries, Blackwood-Stirling HAS moved well to the west, and Wagin now virtually surrounds Albany. So is there any obstacle to transferring Albany to Agricultural? It’d then be 6-5-5 wouldn’t it, which seems a hell of a lot more sensible than 7-4-5.
So it has. Yes, I quite agree – Albany should be transferred to Agricultural.