Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 976, has a shocking headline figure for the government of 56.5-43.5 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. However, this uses the respondent-allocated preference measure, and I as always favour the previous-election method which has become the industry standard. In keeping with Morgan’s recent trend, this produces a substantially different result of 54-46. On either measure Labor has gone substantially backwards since the previous Morgan face-to-face poll which covered the weekends of May 21-22 and 28-29. On the primary vote, Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent, and the Coalition up 1 per cent to 46.5 per cent with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party preferred leads last time were 54-46 on the previous-election preference measure and 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,187 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 64 of 64
1 … 63 64

  2. Sounds like this presser was like a bit of a nets session before QT today.

    Powerfox has got her eye in and is ready to belt the Fibs all over the park.

  3. Yes, Pegasus 3142, if you want to make a difference as a political party
    you have to do the hard yards and get more than 30% of the vote instead
    of cheering at small bumps between 10% and 14%.

  4. They seem to be giving Mr Abbott difficult questions for a change, and he seems to be doing a half reasonable job of handling it.

  5. [think it would be reasonable to conclude that ommission would be very helpful to Abbott.

    Coorey has further damaged the little credibility journalists in Australia still have.]

    billy – I agree. Coorey should have described what HE saw there and he should have asked Abbott how much it will cost to bring the place up to scratch plus all the other associated costs and expenses.

  8. LATIKAMBOURKE | 5 minutes ago
    [TAbbott standing by his pledge to repeal carbon tax compo when asked if he’d repeal one-off permanent rise to the pension.]

  9. [#abcnews24 Abbott now claiming the productivity commission are idiots]

    It’s going to be hilarious when the Libs eventually get back into power. No Government department will want to work with them! I wonder if they can find an accounting firm big enough to substitute for Treasury.

    Didn’t the Libs create the productivity commission anyway? (or at least transform it from its previous guise).

  10. [THE Dalai Lama gave so little thought to the prospect of a meeting with Australia’s Prime Minister he didn’t even know she was a “she”. ]

    How rude. 😉

  14. In your dreams, dovif 3151.

    We know from many by elections around Australia that when
    the ALP does not run a candidate the Greens get at most
    around 30% of the vote. Roughly half of usual ALP voters
    will vote Liberal in preference to Greens if denied an
    ALP candidate. For the foreseeable future we have the
    same two main parties.

    These ups and downs are cyclic. In WA, where we have
    had a Liberal state government and high federal Liberal
    vote for a while, the ALP is already steadily increasing
    its share of the Federal vote and looking more
    together on the state voting front.

    Obviously people in NSW, Vic and Qld have their
    view of federal politics coloured by their states’
    positions in these cycles.

  15. [Can someone tweet Phil Coorey and challenge him to be a proper journalist and describe precisely what he saw – and didn’t see – in Nauru.]

    And why he isn’t putting up his camera images to back them up.

  16. Further to the discussion about the government’s demonisation of travel guides into ‘people smugglers’, it is worth remembering this from Julian Burnside:

    Talk about the evil of people smugglers is simply a proxy for beating up on refugees. It’s dishonest. Everyone seems to have overlooked the fact that that Oskar Schindler was a people smuggler. Dietrich Bonhoeffer was a people smuggler. The captain of the St Louis, Gustav Schroeder, was a people smuggler. They may be a rum lot overall but they do help save lives and they are performing a service that these people are desperate to have.

    All this hostility to boat people is puzzling for another reason: we condemn these people for doing exactly what we would do in the same circumstances.

    You have to accept that many of these boat people are Hazaras fleeing the Taliban in Afghanistan. NGOs in Afghanistan say the Taliban have been particularly active in the last 18 months and in places like Quetta (just over the border in Pakistan), Hazaras are shot on sight. I have a Hazara friend who was there recently to see his parents and he was too scared to go outside. Even in Kabul, Hazaras are blown up while doing the shopping. Who wouldn’t want to flee?

    They flee; they get to Malaysia or Indonesia. They can apply to the UNHCR for refugee status but when they get it, they have to wait as long as 15 years for a country to agree to resettle them. In the meantime, they live in the shadows. They can’t send their kids to school. They can’t work. They are thrown in gaol if they are found. I can understand why they decide to take a risk, get on a leaky boat, and come to Australia.

    Imagine being in that situation with your children. What would you do?

    We should not punish them for doing exactly what we would do in the same situation. They have the courage and initiative to get here: we should welcome them.

    http://theconversation.edu.au/refugees-now-we-have-the-malaysian-solution-but-whats-the-problem-1155

  18. [THE Dalai Lama gave so little thought to the prospect of a meeting with Australia’s Prime Minister he didn’t even know she was a “she”.]

    The Dalai Lama probably still dreams of the good olde days when women were in serfdom.

  20. [It is just a lot of noise about nothing more than good realistic observations and statements by Senator Cameron.]

    Doyley – The only problem with Douggie speaking outside the Party Room is that the media will never report it as it is meant. Doug knows that he will always be taken out of context and that controversy will ensure.

    I’m not sure that I’m happy with that unless he thinks that he will get some of the left voters back. Is that what it is all about?

  21. [gordongraham Gordon Graham
    #Essential ALP 46 (-1) L/NP 54 (+1) #auspol]
    [gordongraham Gordon Graham
    #Essential Julia Gillard: Approval 34% (-7), Disapproval 54% (+6) #auspol]
    [gordongraham Gordon Graham
    #Essential Tony Abbott: Approval 38% (-4), Disapproval 48% (+4) #auspol]
    [gordongraham Gordon Graham
    #Essential Preferred PM: Gillard 41% (-2), Abbott 36 (+1) #auspol]
    [gordongraham Gordon Graham
    #Essential Climate Change is caused by human activity 50% (-2), Normal Fluctuation in Earth’s climate 39% (+3) #auspol]

  22. Dr Good

    For the foreseeable future we have the same two main parties.
    These ups and downs are cyclic.

    Cyclic? Here’s Cavalier’s view on that ‘great myth’:

    ”Every other crisis of identity or sense of loss of purpose took place when we were in Opposition or immediately after going out of government. This crisis has coincided with Labor in government, so recently in six states and the Commonwealth. The great myth is that this is cyclical. This is not like anything we have seen before.”

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/no-light-on-the-hill-20110613-1g09t.html#ixzz1PDS89uAd

  23. jaundiced view
    .
    “Talk about the evil of people smugglers is simply a proxy for beating up on refugees. It’s dishonest. Everyone seems to have overlooked the fact that that Oskar Schindler was a people smuggler. Dietrich Bonhoeffer was a people smuggler. The captain of the St Louis, Gustav Schroeder, was a people smuggler”
    .
    Precisely. Just like all the bulldust now that it is all about stopping people risking their lives,saving lives in fact. We’re thinking of the children we’re doing it because we’re humanitarians. Yeah right !

  24. [LisaDaNu Lisa Éire ©
    by AshGhebranious
    GOLD > RT @AshGhebranious: #abcnews24 #auspol Abbott is dead against
    ]

  25. [UPDATED Lanai Vasek SUGGESTIONS Nauru may soon sign the UN Refugee Convention have been thrown into doubt by revelations the Pacific nation is yet to contact the UN refugee agency.]

    Well, who’s surprised by that!! Has Abbott realised that UNHCR usually take about 18 months to approve an applicant country.

  26. zoomster @ 3125

    The signal was the proportion of members signed up on discounted memberships for students or those on incomes of less than $32,000 a year. These discounted memberships are the cheapest, most effective means of stacking.

    Um, we have an ageing membership.

    It might surprise people to learn that retirees aren’t big earners.

    My branch isn’t very big – there’s about a dozen of us – and only about two would be paying more than minimum membership, because the rest are over sixty.

    Of course, I could have cunningly stacked it with geriatrics…..

    Zoomster, I don’t suppose that it occurs to you that in dismissing one issue you have raised another equally, if not more, serious issue – failure to attract new, young members.

    I haven’t quite worked out my new branch but my previous branch was doing quite well with both young members and ethnically and gender diverse members. So it is not universal, some branches do succeed.

  30. Thanks GD but what I was after was an email form that a question could be asked re the Govt’s Carbon Tax etc and then sent off for an answer. It may have been a Govt or ALP site.

  31. poroti@3173

    Precisely. Just like all the bulldust now that it is all about stopping people risking their lives,saving lives in fact. We’re thinking of the children we’re doing it because we’re humanitarians. Yeah right !

    Yes; it’s really is very sleazy. They have not only adopted the Convention-repudiating Abbott mantra of “Stop The Boats!” the government has also purloined his retrospective justification for it.

    If they were being genuinely humanitarian we wouldn’t be live-trading them to Malaysia with a high risk of harm. Or clapping them into indefinite detention.

  33. JV

    The same things have been said of the ALP before
    and of the Liberals when they are on the downward
    slide. I saw the same said of Labor in the UK and
    then of the Tories. Cycles go down sometimes
    and its not very interesting for someone to
    say it must be a permanent downward slope.

  35. Pegasus @ 3132:

    Although the Greens will have the balance of power in the Senate post 30 June, the status quo may not be maintained for too long.

    Consider this scenario:

    Marginal Labor MHR dies. A by-election is held. Coalition wins. Abbott now has 73 seats; with Crooke and Katter, 75. Abbott becomes PM. Senate fails to pass important bill. Three months elapse. The House passes the bill again but the Senate again rejects it. Abbott goes to GG seeking a double dissolution election. GG grants DD election. All senators are then up for re-election. Possible result following a polarising of the electorate: Coalition wins the House and gains control of the Senate by winning four or five seats – and given the current poll trend this result is not out of the question.

    What I’m suggesting is that, yes, the Greens will have the balance of power but they will need to exercise it with more than a modicum of caution and refrain from making ambit calls, like that of Senator Milne’s for a $40 price on carbon or Senator-elect Rhiannon’s radical anti-Israel stance.

  37. bemused

    My branch is in a rural area, which has an above average representative of over 60s; it is a retirement destination, and that’s where most of our ‘new’ members come from (it has ever been thus).

    We do get the occasional younger member, but they tend to leave after a couple of years to go to somewhere with better employment prospects. Even so, whilst they’re with us, they tend to be paying the low income rates of membership!

    I can think of very few of our younger members who have simply left the party. We have lost a few over 50s to the Greens.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 64 of 64
1 … 63 64